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Research 3.03 Critical Appraisal of Medical Journals 2 - Dr. Zulueta

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Trans Group: TERE, BELLE, CHEV, ROG Edited By: Subject: Topic: Lecturer: Date: RESEARCH CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF MEDICAL JOURNAL 2 Dr. Jose Luisito A. Zulueta, M.D. September 11, 2013 Page 1 of 5 OUTLINE CRITERIA I. VALIDITY CRITERIA II. RESULTS CRITERIA III. APPLICABILITY CRITERIA OBJECTIVES At the end of the lecture, the student should be able to: 1. Enumerate the criteria used to appraise an article on diagnosis. 2. Explain the important points in the criteria used. 3. Appraise published research and judge its reliability. References: Dr. Zulueta’s PPT: Katz, D.L., Elmore, J.G., Wild, D.M.G., Lucan, S.C., Jekel’s Epidemeology, Biostatistics, and Preventive Medicine, Third Edition, W.B. Saunders Co., USA, 2014 Longo, D., Fauci A., Kasper D., Hauser S., Jameson, J.L., Loscalzo, J., Harrison’s Principles of Internal Medicine, 18 th Edition, McGraw[Hill Companies, USA, 2012. Zulueta FM, Perez JR, Methods of Research, Thesis Writing, and Applied Statistics, National Bookstore, Philippines, 2009. Legend: Italicized – quoted from the lecturer CRITERIA VALIDITY CRITERIA Was there an independent blind comparison with a reference standard? ! INFORMATION BIAS Did the patient sample include an appropriate spectrum of patients to whom the diagnostic test will be applied in clinical practice? ! SELECTION BIAS Did the results of the test being evaluated influence the decision to perform the reference standard? ! MISSING DATA BIAS Were the methods for performing the test described in sufficient detail to permit replication? The reference standard is also the gold standard. If that particular test would yield a positive result, then most likely the patient has the disease. RESULTS CRITERIA Are likelihood ratios for the test results presented or data necessary for their calculation provided? APPLICABILITY CRITERIA Will the reproducibility of the test result and its interpretation be satisfactory in my setting? Are the results applicable to my patient? Will the results change my management? Will patients be better off as a result of the test? I. VALIDITY CRITERIA 1. Was there an independent & blind comparison with a reference standard? To Avoid Information Bias (see blinding) Comparator test should be the gold standard Comparison should be “blind” Procedure should be described in sufficient detail 1) Gold Standard What is a gold standard? The accepted definition of disease [ presence or absence Test that is 100% sensitive and 100% specific or as close as one can get to 100% Examples: Ovarian CA " Histopath PTB " DSSM (Direct Sputum Smear Microscopy) 2) BLINDING Person/s doing the diagnostic test & person/s doing gold standard should be unaware of each other’s results o Test results are objective ex. Hormone assays " “Machine” interpretation Person/s doing the diagnostic test and the gold standard should be unaware of each other’s results. That is why some clinicians prefer the hormone assay because this is a test which has machine interpretation. There is objectivity in them. Effect of nonYblinding: Test seems better than it really Is (Overestimate of accuracy) APPRAISAL: Was there an independent & blind comparison with a reference standard? YES 2. Did the patient sample include an appropriate spectrum of patients to whom the diagnostic test will be applied in clinical practice? To Avoid Selection Bias Subjects should be representative of those to which the test will be applied in clinical practice 1) Appropriate spectrum Represent ALL types of patients to which the test will be applied in clinical practice # Type of disease $ Benign & malignant $ Specific disease subtypes # Severity of disease $ Non[palpable & palpable $ Early & advanced $ Stage I, II, III, IV In appropriate spectrum, we want a diagnostic test to be able to catch the disease in its earlier stages.
Transcript

!!

Trans!Group:!TERE,%BELLE,%CHEV,%ROG!Edited!By:!!

Subject:!Topic:!Lecturer:!Date:!

RESEARCH!CRITICAL%APPRAISAL%OF%MEDICAL%JOURNAL%2%Dr.!Jose!Luisito!A.!Zulueta,!M.D.!September!11,!2013!

Page!1!of!5!

!

OUTLINE%CRITERIA!

I. VALIDITY!CRITERIA!II. RESULTS!CRITERIA!III. APPLICABILITY!CRITERIA!

!OBJECTIVES%

At!the!end!of!the!lecture,!the!student!should!be!able!to:!1. Enumerate!the!criteria!used!to!appraise!an!article!on!

diagnosis.!2. Explain!the!important!points!in!the!criteria!used.!3. Appraise!published!research!and!judge!its!reliability.!

!References:%Dr.%Zulueta’s%PPT:%!

• Katz,!D.L.,!Elmore,!J.G.,!Wild,!D.M.G.,!Lucan,!S.C.,!Jekel’s!Epidemeology,!Biostatistics,!and!Preventive!Medicine,!Third!Edition,!W.B.!Saunders!Co.,!USA,!2014!

• !Longo,!D.,!Fauci!A.,!Kasper!D.,!Hauser!S.,!Jameson,!J.L.,!Loscalzo,!J.,!Harrison’s!Principles!of!Internal!Medicine,!18th!Edition,!McGraw[Hill!Companies,!USA,!2012.!

• !Zulueta!FM,!Perez!JR,!Methods!of!Research,!Thesis!Writing,!and!Applied!Statistics,!National!Bookstore,!Philippines,!2009.!

!Legend:!Italicized!–!quoted!from!the!lecturer!!

CRITERIA%VALIDITY%CRITERIA%

• Was!there!an!independent!blind!comparison!with!a!reference!standard?!!

! INFORMATION%BIAS%• Did!the!patient!sample!include!an!appropriate!spectrum!of!

patients!to!whom!the!diagnostic!test!will!be!applied!in!clinical!practice?!

! SELECTION%BIAS%• Did!the!results!of!the!test!being!evaluated!influence!the!

decision!to!perform!the!reference!standard?!! MISSING%DATA%BIAS%

• Were!the!methods!for!performing!the!test!described!in!sufficient!detail!to!permit!replication?!!

The,reference,standard,is,also,the,gold,standard.,If,that,particular,test,would,yield,a,positive,result,,then,most,likely,the,patient,has,the,disease.,,

!RESULTS%CRITERIA%

• Are! likelihood! ratios! for! the! test! results!presented!or!data!necessary!for!their!calculation!provided?!

!APPLICABILITY%CRITERIA%

• Will!the!reproducibility!of!the!test!result!and!its!interpretation!be!satisfactory!in!my!setting?!

• !Are!the!results!applicable!to!my!patient?!• !Will!the!results!change!my!management?!!• !Will!patients!be!better!off!as!a!result!of!the!test?!

!!!

I. VALIDITY%CRITERIA!1.%Was%there%an%independent%&%blind%comparison%with%a%reference%standard?%!To%Avoid%Information%Bias%(see%blinding)%

• !Comparator!test!should!be!the!gold!standard!• !Comparison!should!be!“blind”!• !Procedure!should!be!described!in!sufficient!detail!

%1) Gold!Standard!What!is!a!gold!standard?!

• The!accepted!definition!of!disease![!presence!or!absence!• !Test!that!is!100%!sensitive!and!100%!specific!!or!as!close!

as!one!can!get!to!100%!Examples:!

• Ovarian!CA!"!Histopath! !• PTB!!"!DSSM!(Direct!Sputum!Smear!Microscopy)!!

2) BLINDING!• Person/s!doing!the!diagnostic!test!&! person/s!doing!gold!

standard!should!be!unaware!of!each!other’s!results!o Test!results!are!objective!

ex.!Hormone%assays%" %“Machine”!interpretation%!

Person/s(doing(the(diagnostic(test,and,the,gold(standard,should,be,unaware,of,each,other’s,results.,That,is,why,some,clinicians,prefer,the,hormone,assay,because,this,is,a,test,which,has,machine,interpretation.,There,is,objectivity,in,them.,,

,Effect%of%nonYblinding:%Test!seems!better!than!it!really!Is!(Overestimate!of!accuracy)!!APPRAISAL:%

Was%there%an%independent%&%blind%comparison%with%a%reference%standard?%%

YES!!!2.%Did%the%patient%sample%include%an%appropriate%spectrum%of%patients%to%whom%the%diagnostic%test%will%be%applied%in%clinical%practice?%

!To%Avoid%Selection%Bias%

• !Subjects!should!be!representative!of!those!to!which!the!test!will!be!applied!in!clinical!practice!

%1)%Appropriate%spectrum%

• Represent!ALL!types!of!patients!to!which!the!test!will!be!applied!in!clinical!practice!# !Type!of!disease!$ !Benign!&!malignant!$ !Specific!disease!subtypes!# !Severity!of!disease!$ !Non[palpable!&!palpable!$ !Early!&!advanced!!$ Stage!I,!II,!III,!IV!

In,appropriate,spectrum,,we,want,a,diagnostic,test,to,be,able,to,catch,the,disease,in,its,earlier,stages.,!

!!!

Page!2!of!5!

!Figure%1.%NonYrepresentative%Sample%

• When,you,have,a,non@representative,sample,and,given,that,

severe/advanced,cases,are,easier,to,diagnose,and,mild,cases,are,

harder,to,diagnose,,you,might,be,including,only,those,who,are,

with,severe,stages,of,the,disease.,!• There,will,be,an,overestimation,of,accuracy,of,the,test,because,

the,test,will,actually,be,measuring,those,with,the,severe,disease,

who,are,easy,to,diagnose.,,

!%%%APPRAISAL:%%

Did%the%patient%sample%include%an%appropriate%spectrum%of%patients%to%whom%the%diagnostic%test%will%be%applied%in%clinical%

practice?%YES%

%3.%Did%the%results%of%the%test%being%evaluated%influence%the%decision%to%perform%the%reference%standard?%

!RULES%to%avoid%Missing%Data%Bias:!

$ All!subjects!should!undergo!the!gold!standard!test.!$ Result!of!the!test!should!NOT!influence!the!decision!to!

perform!the!gold!standard!test.!!

Which%is%more%correct?!“All!recruited!patients!underwent!biopsy“!

or!"All!patients!who!underwent!biopsy!were!recruited"!

**(The,first,one,is,correct),,

,Figure%2:%Subjects%and%Gold%standard%

• If,not,all,subjects,underwent,the,gold,standard,test,,you,are,only,

including, those, with, severe/advanced, cases, because, they, are,

easier, to, diagnose,, and, so, the, accuracy, of, the, test, is,

overestimated.,

• Diagnostic, test, should,be,able, to, catch, the,disease, in, its, further,

stages., It, will, prove, if, the, test, conducted, during, the, diagnostic,

test,would,get,the,same,results.,

,APPRAISAL:%%

Did%the%results%of%the%test%being%evaluated%influence%the%decision%to%perform%the%reference%standard?%

NO%%%

4. Were%the%methods%for%performing%the%test%described%in%sufficient%detail%to%permit%replication?%

!“Repeatability”%of%Test%Method!RULES:!

$ Procedure!for!doing!the!test!should!be!described!in!sufficient!detail.,(so,that,the,readers,would,be,able,to,follow,them)!

$ Readers!should!be!able!to!replicate!the!test!procedure.!!Vague!description!of!procedure!

!Readers!cannot!perform!test!as!well!as!study!authors!

!Readers!obtain!less!accurate!results!

!REPORTED!ACCURACY!OVERESTIMATES!

ACTUAL!ACCURACY!!

APPRAISAL:%Were%the%methods%for%performing%the%test%described%in%sufficient%

detail%to%permit%replication?%YES%%

APPRAISAL%SUMMARY%Y%VALIDITY%% To%avoid%information%bias:!

# Comparator!test!should!be!the!gold!standard!# Comparison!should!be!“blind”/objective!# Procedure!should!be!described!in!sufficient!detail!

% %To%avoid%selection%bias:%# Subjects!should!be!representative!of!those!to!

which!the!test!will!be!applied!in!clinical!practice!% %To%avoid%missing%data%bias:%

# All!subjects!should!undergo!the!gold!standard.!!1.!Was!there!an!independent!blind!comparison!with!a!reference!standard?!YES!2.!Did!the!patient!sample!include!an!appropriate!spectrum!of!patients!to!whom!the!diagnostic!test!will!be!applied!in!clinical!practice?!YES!3.!Did!the!results!of!the!test!being!evaluated!influence!the!decision!to!perform!the!reference!standard?%NO!4.!Were!the!methods!for!performing!the!test!described!in!sufficient!detail!to!permit!replication?!YES%

%%%

!!!

Page!3!of!5!

II.%RESULTS%CRITERIA%Are%likelihood%ratios%for%the%test%results%presented%or%data%necessary%for%their%calculation%provided?%%

• Measures!of!a!diagnostic!test:!# !Sensitivity!# !Specificity!# !Positive!predictive!value!# !Negative!predictive!value!# !Likelihood!ratio!

!

%Figure%3:%Table%used%to%calculate%the%Sensitivity,%Specificity,%Positive%

Predictive%Value,%and%Negative%Predictive%Value%%CLASSIC%2x2%Table%

!On,the,classic,2,x,2,table,,the,gold,standard,test,is,always,on,the,top,,diagnostic,test,on,the,left.,,False,positive,=,tested,positive,on,the,test,but,do,not,have,the,disease.,,False,negative,=,tested,negative,on,the,test,but,actually,has,the,disease.,,!

A. Sensitivity![!ability!of!the!test!to!label!as!positive!those!who!truly!have!the!disease;!used,when,you,want,to,rule(out,a,disease,(snOUT)!

!"#$%&%'%&( = ! !!!!!!! !

! ! Where:!A!=!Number!of!true!positives!C!=!Number!of!false!negatives!

Therefore:!

!"#$%&%'%&( = ! !". !"!!"#$!!"#$%$&'#!". !"!!"#$!!"#$%$&'# + !". !"!!"#$%!!"#$%&'"(!

*Sensitivity,test,example,is,a,screening,test,for,HIV,(ELISA).,,

When,negative,,you,can,say,that,the,person,do,not,have,HIV.,

Confirmatory,test,for,HIV,is,Western,Blot.,If,positive,,you,can,say,

that,the,person,has,HIV.,,

Sensitivity,determines,the,percentage,of,sick,people,who,are,

correctly,identified,as,having,the,condition,among,those,who,

really,have,the,condition.,

B. Specificity![!ability!of!the!test!to!label!as!negative!those!who!don’t!have!the!disease;!used,when,you,want,to,rule(in,a,disease,(spIN)!

!!!!!!!!! ! ! ! ! !"#$%&%$%'(! = !!!!!!!!

! Where:!! ! D!=!Number!of!true!negatives!! ! B!=!Number!of!false!positives!! Therefore:!! ! ! ! ! !

! !"#$%&%$%'( = ! !".!"!!"#$!!"#$%&'"(!".!"!!"#$!!"#$%&'"(!!".!"!!"#$%!!"#$%$&'#!

!Specificity,is,the,percentage,of,people,who,are,correctly,identified,as,not,having,the,condition,among,those,who,really,don’t,have,the,condition,%C. Positive%Predictive%Value%(PPV)![!probability!that!a!subject!has!

the!disease!if!the!test!is!positive!

!!!!!!!! ! ! ! ! !!!!!!"! = !!!!!!!

! Where:!! ! A!=!Number!of!true!positives!! ! B!=!Number!of!false!positives!! Therefore:!

!!" = ! !". !"!!"#$!!"#$%$&'#!". !"!!"#$!!"#$%$&'# + !". !"!!"#$!!"#$%&'"(!

! ! ! ! ! ! ! !D. Negative%Predictive%Value%(NPV)![!probability!that!a!subject!

does%not%have!the!disease!if!the!test!is!negative!

!"#!! = !! !! + !!

! Where:!! ! D!=!Number!of!true!negatives!! ! C!=!Number!of!false!negatives!! Therefore:!!

!"# = ! !". !"!!"#$!!"#$%&'"(!". !"!!"#$!!"#$%&'"( + !". !"!!"#$%!!"#$%&'"(!

%E. Likelihood%ratio%(LR)[!refers!to!how!much!the!test!will!raise!or!

lower!the!pretest!probability!%INTERPRETATION%of%LR:%

• !The!larger!the!value!from!1,!the!better!the!test!result!will!detect!those!who!have!the!disease!

Ideally:!(+)!LR!>!1! !• !The!smaller!the!value!from!1,!the!better!the!test!result!will!

detect!those!w/o!the!disease!!! ! ! ! Ideally:!([)!LR!<!1!

• !Value!of!1:!test!is!useless!!Other%Notes:%The!further!away!a!likelihood!ratio!(LR)!is!from!1,!the!stronger!the!evidence!for!the!presence!or!absence!of!disease.!

• LR%>1!indicates!that!the!test!result!is!associated!with!the!presence!of!the!disease.%

• LR%<0.1!indicates!that!the!test!result!is!associated!with!the!

!!!

Page!4!of!5!

absence!of!disease.%!

!!

!Figure%4:%LR%=%Diagnostic%Weights%

%LR%–%Statistical%Significance%

• !Ideally:!(+)!LR!>!1!! ! ! (+)!LR!=!16.6!(95%!CI:!2.5!–!24.5)! !! ! ! STAT!SIGNIFICANT!!

• !Ideally:!([)!LR!<!1!! ! ! ([)!LR!=!0.8!(95%!CI:!0.6!–!2.7)!! ! ! NOT!STAT!SIGNIFICANT!!LR!is!stat!significant!if!the!CI!does!NOT!cross!“1”.!!Interpret%the%following:!

CA!LR:!! ! ! 16.6!Susp!LR:! ! 3.31!Benign!LR:!! ! 0.21!

!$ Probability!of!CA!is!increased!17x!if!test!is!(+)!$ Probability!of!CA!is!increased!3x!if!test!result!shows!

“suspicious”.!$ Probability!of!CA!is!increased!0.21x!if!test!is!([)!$ Probability!of!CA!is!decreased!1!/!0.21x!or!4.76x!if!test!is!([).!

%APPRAISAL:%

%Are%likelihood%ratios%for%the%test%results%presented%or%data%necessary%for%their%calculation%provided?%%

YES%%%%

MANAGEMENT%%Decision%Making%Line%

* !PreYTest%Probability%Y!probability!of!disease!prior!to!doing!the!test!!

* !PostYTest%Probability[!probability!of!disease!after!doing!the!test!

* !Diagnostic%Threshold%* !Therapeutic%Threshold%* !Nomogram![!graphical!tool!for!estimating!how!much!the!

result!on!a!diagnostic!test!changes!the!probability!that!a!patient!has!a!disease.!

,PostYtest%Probability%(PTP)%

• Will!the!reproducibility!of!the!test!result!and!its!interpretation!be!satisfactory!in!my!setting?!!

!!PreYtest%Probability%

!%

,By, comparing, the, pre@, and, post@test, probabilities,, it, is, possible, to,determine,whether,probability,of,diagnosis,has,risen,(i.e.,the,post@test,probability, has, increased), or, fallen, (i.e., post@test, probability, has,decreased)., In, practice,, assessing, post@test, probability, is, commonly,done,by,using,a,Likelihood(Ratio(Nomogram.(

,Nomogram!Given!the!following!set!of!values:!!Pre[Test!Probability!=!60%!LR!(+)!=!1.47!Post[Test!Probability!~!70%!!!

!Figure%5:%Nomogram%

!To(better(understand,(here’s(the(explanation(we(got(from(other(resources:(

!!!

Page!5!of!5!

PreYtest%probability%(~%prevalence)!$ This!is!the!proportion!of!people!in!the!population!at!risk!

who!have!the!disease!at!a!specific!time!or!time!interval!(ex.!prevalence!of!the!disease).!In!other!words,!it%is%the%probability%−before%the%diagnostic%test%is%performed%−%that%a%patient%has%the%disease.!!

$ Pre[test!probabilities!may!be!estimated!from!routine!data,!practice!data!or!clinical!judgement!like!history!taking!and!physical!examination)!!

PostYtest%probability!$ This!is!the!proportion!of!patients!testing!positive!who!truly!

have! the! disease.! It! is! similar! to! the! positive! predictive!value!but!apart! from! the! test!performance!also! includes!a!patient!based!probability!of!having!disease.!

!EXAMPLE:!!

!

!!! We,begin,with,a,pretest,probability,estimate,of,10%,for,strep,as,the, cause, of, sore, throat, in, adults, presenting, to, a, primary, care,physician, with, a, sore, throat, as, their, "chief, complaint"., We, gather,information,by,asking, the,patient,a, series,of,questions,and,examine,them,(the,"history,and,physical").,Each,question,is,actually,a,type,of,"test",, and,we, use, this, information, to, revise, the, probability, from, a,pretest,probability,of,10%,to,a,post@test,probability,of,50%.,But,we're,not,done,(because,we,have,to,overcome,the,treatment,threshold),,we,may,order,additional,rapid,strep,test,using,a,throat,swab,,so,now,the,50%, is, the,pretest,probability, in, relation, to, the, throat, swab.,With,a,positive, result,,we, estimate, an, 80%, likelihood,of, strep,,which, is, the,final,post@test,probability.,!Pretest, probability/prevalence, at, 10, %,", , do, history, and, physical,

exam,", probability, raised, to, post, test, probability, 50%, , (needs,further,diagnostic,test,like,throat,swab,according,to,threshold,graph),

",50%,(now,becomes,the,pretest,probability),is,raised,to,80%,(post,

test,probability),",now,,treat,the,patient,since,it,already,surpassed,the,treatment,threshold,according,to,threshold,graph,,After,which,,you,can,graph,the,results,using,Nomogram,to,estimate,how,much,the,result,on,a,diagnostic,test,changes,the,probability,that,a,patient,has,a,disease.,!!%%%%%

III.%APPLICABILITY%CRITERIA%1) Will%the%reproducibility%of%the%test%result%and%its%interpretation%

be%satisfactory%in%my%setting?!Consider:!

$ objectivity!of!how!test!was!done!in!interpreting!test!results!$ comparison!of!test!results!with!other!studies!

,This,means,that,in,appraising,literature,,it,is,imperative,that,you,

compare,the,article,being,evaluated,with,other,published,studies.!!2) Are%the%results%applicable%to%my%patient?!Look!at:!!

$ demographic!characteristics!$ Inclusion!&!exclusion!criteria!

!!!!3) Will%the%results%change%my%management?!!

$ Look!at!diagnostic!&!therapeutic!thresholds.!!!4) Will%patients%be%better%off%as%a%result%of%the%test?!

Aside!from!determining!accuracy,!did!article!determine!if!the!test!will!improve!disease!prognosis?!

Example:!$ RCT!on!mammography!!$ longer!survival!for!mammo[detected!breast!CA!

%%%

GOODLUCK!%


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