Research and Development in theFederal BudgetMatt HourihanMay 2, 2013for the AAAS Science & Technology Policy Forum

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-9.5%-6.8%-6.6%-6.6%-6.4%-5.2%-5.0%-4.6%-4.5%-4.5%-4.2%-4.0%-3.8%-2.5%

5.5%60.8%

-6.5%

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Other DODTransportation

NASAAgriculture

EPANIH

DOE ScienceDOD S&T

US Geological SurveyDOE Energy Programs

Other HHSNSF

DOE AtomicsVA

NISTDHS

TOTAL

Estimated FY 2013 R&D: Appropriations and Sequester Outcomes

percent change from FY 2012

Source: AAAS estimates based on agency R&D data and budget documents, appropriations documents, and OMB sequester analyses.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Estimated FY 2013 R&D Funding

Agency / Dept

Nominal Cut from FY12

Nominal Percentage Cut from FY12

Resulting Budget On Par With…

Total R&D $9.3 billion -6.5% 2002

Defense S&T $619 million -4.6% 2002

NIH $1.6 billion -5.2% 2002

Energy* $479 million -4.4% 2001

NSF $227 million -4.0% 2010

NASA $749 million -6.6% Late 1980s?

Agriculture $154 million -6.6% 1998

*Includes Office of Science, Energy Programs, and NNSA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trends in R&D by Agencyin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

ARRA Funding

All Other

USDA

NSF

NASA

DOE

NIH

DOD

Source: AAAS Report: Research & Development series.FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.1976-1994 figures are NSF data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey. © 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%19

76

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trends in Federal R&DAs a percent of GDP

Total R&D

Development

Research

Facilities

Source: Up to 1994 - National Science Foundation, Survey of Federal Funds for Research and Development; 1995 to Present - AAAS Research and Development series. GDP figures are from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014. FY 2013 and FY 2014 figures are latest estimates.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Life Sciences / GDP

Physical Sciences/GDP

Engineering / GDP

EnvironmentalSciences / GDP

Math / Comp.Sciences / GDP

Federal Funds by Discipline asPercent of GDP, FY 1970-2011

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-14.8%

-8.2%

-7.8%

-7.3%

20.2%

66.5%

88.4%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Defense Activities

Agriculture

Health (NIH)

Environment Agencies

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Commerce (NIST)

Applied Energy Programs

R&D Changes by Function Since 2004percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars

Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$545[Defense R&D]

$73

Nondefense Discretionary

$554

[Nondefense R&D]$70

Social Security$860

Medicare$524

Medicaid$304

Other Mandatory$621

Net Interest$223

Composition of the Proposed FY 2014 BudgetTotal Outlays = $3.8 trillion

outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2014.Projected unified deficit is $744 billion.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$120

[Defense R&D]$15

Nondefense Discretionary

$126

[Nondefense R&D]$16

Social Security$117

Medicare$31

Medicaid$14

Other Mandatory$100

Net Interest$53

Composition of the FY 1980 Budgetoutlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$254[Defense R&D]

$41

Nondefense Discretionary

$287

[Nondefense R&D]$33

Social Security$406

Medicare$194

Medicaid$118

Other Mandatory$233

Net Interest$223

Composition of the FY 2000 Budgetoutlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013.© 2012 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense Discretionary

$519[Defense R&D]

$65

Nondefense Discretionary

$570

[Nondefense R&D]$72

Social Security$1,080

Medicare$607

Medicaid$391

Other Mandatory$677

Net Interest$462

Composition of the FY 2018 Budget?outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2014.© 2013 AAAS

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

DOD, $69.5

HHS (NIH), $32.0

DOE, $12.7

NASA, $11.6

NSF, $6.3

USDA, $2.5

Commerce, $2.7All Other, $6.7

Total R&D by Agency, FY 2014budget authority in billions of dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.© 2013 AAAS

Total R&D = $144.1 billion

Defense: -5.5%Nondefense: +9.2%

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

-2.9%-11.1%

-8.6%-5.4%-3.0%-2.4%-1.9%-1.4%

2.3%4.2%5.4%

10.0%10.8%

21.0%23.7%

44.6%181.7%

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

TOTALDOD Other

DOD S&TEPAVA

NIHDOT

NASADOE Science

USDANSF

Other HHSDOE Defense

NISTNOAA

DOE EnergyDHS

R&D in the FY 2014 Budgetpercent change from FY 2012 (INFLATION ADJUSTED)

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents.© 2013 AAAS

DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Admin R&D Priorities Innovation / Science

Clear shifts from D to R (especially use-inspired + applied), and from Defense to Nondefense

COMPETES Agencies: $12.6 billion (+18% from 2012)

Advanced manufacturing (NIST + elsewhere)

Permanent R&D Tax Credit

STEM reorganization

Clean Energy

Homeland Security (Biodefense facility)

Basic research budget flat when adjusted for inflation… But major growth when adjusted for sequestration

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Defense R&D: Recent Decline DOD: $69.5b (real

dollars: -11%) Boost for basic,

everything else cut

DOE Atomic: Continued strong growth

Homeland Security: National Bio and Agro-defense Facility gets funded

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

General Science: Growth Area

NSF: $6.3B for R&D (real dollars: +5%) 10-year Trend: +21.9% Broad investment,

especially Engineering, BIO, SBE

Key focus on cross-cutting innovation programs

0

2

4

6

8

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

National Science Foundationin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Total R&D ARRA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

General Science: Growth Area (Cont.)

DOE Science: $4.6B for R&D (real dollars: 2.3%) 10-year trend: 18.1% Growth everywhere but

High Energy Physics Energy Frontier

Research Centers Continued (but capped)

investment in ITER Exascale Initiative gets

limited support

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

DOE Office of Science R&Din millions of constant FY 2013 dollars

DOE OS R&D Recovery Act

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

NIH: Continued Stagnation

10-year trend: -10% Only notable boosts:

NCATS, National Institute on Aging, NLM

BRAIN Initiative ($40 million) and big data ($41 million)

Basic v. applied? Outside NIH: DOD

Health research cut, again

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Energy Programs R&D: Major growth

DOE Energy Programs: $3.1 billion (real dollars: +45%) Driven by EERE, ARPA-E

Advanced Manufacturing Initiative

New Innovation Hub: Electricity Systems

Proposed: Energy Security Trust

Continued subject of Congressional conflict

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Dept of Energyin millions of constant FY 2013 dollars

DOE Energy Programs ARRA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

NASA Total Budgetin billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

NASA NASA ARRA

NASA: Mixed signals? Science (esp. Planetary)

cut Except Webb

Continued growth for Space Tech, Aeronautics flat

Asteroid vs. Moon v. Commercial crew increases?

What about exploration? Orion, SLS cut

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

Agriculture and Environment R&D: Turnarounds? USDA: $2.5B for R&D (real

dollars: +4%)

Boosts for intramural and extramural alike Agriculture and Food

Research Initiative: $383m

EPA cut…

…but boosts for NOAA, US Geological Survey, Global Change Research Program

0

1

2

3

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

USDA R&Din billions of constant FY 2013 dollars

Total R&D ARRA

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

What it all adds up to… A shift towards nondefense research

Special focus on applied, strategic, use-inspired areas

Without abandoning fundamental research

Some longer-term trends will continue At the agency level and the general budget mix

The BIG questions: How does one fit a $1057 billion budget into a $966 billion

hole?

Has science hit a speed bump, or crossed over the Fiscal Cliff into Austerity Valley?

U.S. R&D INVESTMENT

For more info…mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607

www.aaas.org/spp/rd/

*The R&D book is coming, we promise!*