Research and Development Project for improving the prediction of heavy precipitating systems over La Plata Basin LPB-ReD

Current status and perspectives

Celeste Saulo –CIMA/UBA, ArgentinaChristopher Cunningham – CPTEC, Brazil-Alice Grimm – UFPR, Paraná, Brazil-

WWRP-JSC Meeting, 17-19 July 2013 Geneva

Motivation

• This RDP is motivated mainly by the lack of comprehensive understanding about the processes that determine severe weather events in the La Plata Basin –particularly those related with heavy precipitation-, and our limitation to provide skillful forecasts which would contribute to minimize their impacts.

• It has also been conceived to take advantage of existing and planned observational campaigns over the region.

Main objectives

• To assess state-of-the-art models ability to anticipate extreme weather conditions and to quantify their skill over LPB;

• To analyze the sources of model errors in order to feedback the development of models itself;

• To evaluate the impact of extra data in the quality of forecasts;

• To use TIGGE outputs and other available ensemble systems to develop products/tools adequate for extreme weather forecast in the region and evaluate them in the operational context;

Brief history2005: a La Plata Basin Continental Experiment was approved under the auspices of WCRP-GEWEX Programme, hence oriented to climate variability and hydrology2009: during the CAS-XV the Commission noted the very early planning stages of a Heavy Rainfall RDP for the Plata River Basin in South America2010-2012: the idea was further developed and presented at GIFS-TIGGE meetings and other WMO-fora.April 2012: a Preliminary proposal was presented at the WWRP-JSC meeting.

Actions since the last JSC meeting:• April 2012: a proposal for financial support of a

kick off workshop to discuss and propose the Implementation Plan of LPB-ReD, was submitted to the National Council for Research (CNPq)- Brazil.

• May 2012: The main ideas of the LPB ReD were presented at the first CHUVA national meeting. An LPB-ReD / CHUVA sub project arose: perform High resolution LAM runs in support for CHUVA-Santa María field experiment

CHUVA= (Cloud processes of tHe main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GlobAl Precipitation Measurement)http://chuvaproject.cptec.inpe.br/portal/en/index.html

Motivation

To analyze the ability of high resolution models to represent organized convection over southern LPB region

To evaluate the potential for a LAM – EPS

To give NWP support to the field campaign operations (IOPs)

LPB ReD – CHUVA collaboration

CHUVA Santa Maria: 6th November to 22nd December 2012

4 km

2 km

2 km12 km

2 km 16 km

• Output temporal resolution was 1 hr except for WRF_GRuMA (6hs)• Most of the models had initializations at 12UTC, some also had at 00UTC• Forecast ranges varied from 36 to 72 hs. 

Santa María

Different PBL Treatment

3 Different Initialization strategies

Name WRF‐SMNWRF‐UBA‐UNNE WRF‐CPTEC

WRF_GruMA‐UFSM BRAMS‐IAG‐USP BRAMS‐CPTEC MESO_NH

ModelWRF ARW 

3.4.1WRF ARW 

3.4.1 WRF ARW 3.4 WRF ARW 3.3 BRAMS ‐4.3 BRAMS ‐4.2 Meso‐NH 4.9

Initial and boundary conditions

GFS 0.5°, 26 niv, BC 3hs

GFS 0.5°, 26 niv, BC 3hs

CPTEC best member

GFS 1°,26 levs, BC 6hs

GFS 0.5, 26 niv, BC 6hs

CPTEC GFS 0.5, 26 niv, BC 6hs ?¡?

ECMWF_16 km, 91 levs, BC  6hsNCEP best member

NCEP GFS 0.5, 26 niv, BC 6hs

GFS 0.5

Horizontal resolution 4km 4 km 2km 12km 16 km 2 km 2 km

Nesting NO NOYes – interactive

12km/2kmYes‐ interactive 48km/12km NO NO yes 10 Km / 2 km

Data asimilation NO NO NO NO Surface data NO NO

Convection Param No NOKF en 12km/No en 

2km KF/KFGrell ‐ ensamble 

closure NO Bechtold / NO

PBL Param YSU MYJ MYJ YSU Mellor Yamada MY 2.5 Cuxart et al.

Microphysics WSM6 WSM6 WSM3 LIN 2 momts all species Walko et alPinty and Jabouille

Argentina Brazil France

CHUVA Santa Maria: 6th November to 22nd December 2012

HRLAMENSA pilot project on ensemble prediction through very high resolution limited area models

Cunningham, Christopher; Saulo, Celeste; Anabor, Wagner; Camponogara, Gláuber; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Faus da Silva Dias, Maria Assunção; Ferreira, Márcio; Freitas, Saulo; García Skabar, Yanina; Machado, Luiz; Matsudo, Cynthia; Nascimento, Ernani; Nicolini, Matilde; Pulido, Manuel; Rodrigues, Joyce; Ruiz, Juan; Salio, Paola; Santos, Daniel; Saucedo, Marcos; Stockler, Rafael; Vendrasco, Eder

First International CHUVA Workshop8 – 10 May 2013

IAG-USP, São Paulo, Brazil

HRLAMENS CUNNINGHAM ET AL 2013

HRLAMENS

Kindly prepared by Mio Matsueda (JMA)

TIGGE CONTRIBUTION

High resolution model intercomparison for Convective Events during CHUVA�Santa

María Matsudo, Cynthia(1); Saulo, Celeste(2,3,4); Cunningham, Christopher (5), Anabor,

Wagner (6); Camponogara, Gláuber (7); Chaboureau, Jean�Pierre (8); Faus da Silva Dias, Maria Assunção(7); Freitas, Saulo (5); García Skabar, Yanina(1,4,9);

Machado, Luiz (5); Nascimento, Ernani (6); Nicolini, Matilde (2,3,4); Pulido, Manuel (4,10); Ruiz, Juan (2,3,4); Salio, Paola (2,3,4); Santos, Daniel (6); Saucedo,

Marcos (2,4); Stockler , Rafael (5); Vendrasco, Eder (5)

Affiliation:1.Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina2.Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CONICET�UBA), Argentina 3.Dpto Cs. de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEyN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina4.UMI� IFAECI (CNRS/UBA/CONICET), Argentina5.Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) � Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Cachoeira Paulista, Brasil6.Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), Brasil7.Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brasil8.Laboratoire d’Aerologie, Universite de Toulouse and CNRS, Toulouse, France9.Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina10.Department of Physics, FACENA, Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes, Argentina

Case: 22 Nov 2012

Case: 22 Nov 2012 36‐hr forecast

Case: 07 Dec 2012

Case: 07 Dec 2012 18‐hr forecast

Case: 10 Dec 2012

21‐hr forecastCase: 10 Dec 2012

Actions continued…

Actions..

• April 2013: A new proposal has been submitted to the National Council for Research (CNPq)-Brazil…

Actions…• June 2013 (CAS-MG meeting):▫ NMS have to be involved in the project from the

very beginning▫ The project has to include “operational deliverables”▫ Field campaigns should be considered in order to

enhance the observational component▫ Very high resolution models should be tested and

their coupling with hydrological models could be also considered, in order to improve flooding prediction

▫ CPTEC agreed to organize and partially support the LPB-Red kick off meeting in October 2013

RELAMPAGO -Remote sensing of

Electrification, Lightning, And Meso-

scale/micro-scale Processes with

Adaptive Ground Observations

(relampago translates to lightning in Spanish and Portuguese)

RELAMPAGO (a working acronym) is envisioned to be an international multi-agency field program to study multi-scale aspects of intense, organized convective systems that produce severe weather in subtropical south America

Satellite evidence, including from TRMM, indicates that the convection in this region is unique in its intense vertical structure, broad horizontal organization, and lightning production.

In this data sparse region, we do not know much about aspects of these systems including what governs their structure, life cycle, similarities and differences with severe weather-producing systems observed in the US and elsewhere, and their predictability on weather to climate timescales.

Zipser et al.2006

Rasmussen and Houze2011

2014 radar Network2014 radar Network

Ezeiza

Canguzu

Santiago

Parana

Pergamino

Corboba

Anguil

Bariloche

Asuncion

Mendoza

Jujuy

Bariloche and Cordoba Are the new radars for 2014C doppler dual pol

Ezeiza and Pergamino – C DopplerParana and Anguil – C – Doppler –Dual Pol

Each circle has 480km diameter

RELAMPAGOTARGET REGION

Target region has:

Satellite and ground based indications of severe weather

Good roads, connectivity

Proximity to soundings and radars

MAJOR CONCERNNeed to enhance soundings and surface data collection surrounding convection to capture environment of convective systems and flows they generate

Use a combination of mobile/fixed radiosonde sites, cloud drift winds, and pilot balloon observations to form a multi-scale upper observing network

Deploy a stick net mobile observation network surrounding convection to capture mesoscale environments and storm-produced flows

RELAMPAGO Science steering group

USAS. Nesbitt (U. Illinois)D. Cecil and T. Lang (MSFC)K. Rasmussen and R. Houze (U. Washington)D. Gochis (NCAR-RAL)

BrazilL. A. T. Machado and R. Albrecht (INPE/CPTEC)E. Nascimento (U. Fed. Santa Maria)

ArgentinaP. Salio, C. Saulo (U. Buenos Aires)Eldo Avila (FAMAF – University of Cordoba)G. Binimelis de Raga/D. Baumgardner (UNAM-U. Buenos Aires)

Near term plansWill be reaching out to other scientists with observational and modeling interests following the crafting of a white paper by September 2013.

Seeking WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Program (WCRP) endorsement in July 2013.

What do we need from WWRP? (last JSC 2012 meeting slide…)

• Evaluation, comments and suggestions after the outcomes of our first meeting (by October 2012)

• Could TIGGE become operational in support of CHUVA?

• ¿Could some of the TIGGE products be adapted to this area?

• Financial support for training courses and workshops and/or parallel sessions in other meetings.

• Promote involvement of experts from other regions that could share knowledge/tools/facilities/expertise.

What do we need from WWRP?

• Evaluation, comments and suggestions after the outcomes of our first meeting (by March 2014?)

• Financial support for training courses and workshops and/or parallel sessions in other meetings.

• Promote involvement of experts from other regions that could share knowledge – tools –facilities -expertise.

• Expression of support/endorsement of RELAMPAGO as the next observational field experiment over LPB directly related with LPB-ReD

Assets. Envisioning 6-8 week EOP with IOPs during events with enhanced sounding coverage (8 x per day)•NSF

– SPOLKa – convective structure and microphysics, refractivity moisture retrievals and cloud water retrivals

– NCAR ISS and/or university sounding platforms (U. Alabama/U. Illinois/others?)– DOW for dual-doppler coverage– TTU StickNet or similar platform

•Other US agencies– NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission disdrometers, radiometers– Planned discussion with Wayne Higgins (CPC)

•Brazil– Sounding launch facilities– Sticknet (UFSM)– Lightning mapping array (INPE)– Ground-based electric field mills– EFM balloon profiles/video charge particle measurements (Japan)– High-speed (10,000 fps) video camera

•Argentina– 2 operational C-Band dual-pol radars (installed by 2014), existing dual-pol radar at Parana– Mobile sounding facility/PIBAL operations– Aerosol /thermodynamics UAV

•Chile, Paraguay (perhaps Bolivia)– Cooperation established, can host instrumentation, possible enhanced radiosonde/PIBAL ops