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Accelerating success. Research & Forecast Report CHARLOTTE Q1 2017 | Multifamily Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Mar-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,028 $1,043 $1,031 $1,032 $1,041 $981 $1,026 $1,048 $1,083 $1,126 $1,160 $1,189 Per Sq. Ft $1.07 $1.08 $1.07 $1.07 $1.08 $1.02 $1.06 $1.09 $1.12 $1.17 $1.20 $1.23 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 4.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 5.4% 4.6% 2.2% 3.3% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 2.7% 1.4% -1.1% 0.1% Occupancy Rate 95.8% 95.7% 95.3% 95.0% 94.9% 95.3% 95.5% 94.9% 95.2% 95.6% 95.0% 94.6% Occupancy Change - Annually 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.6% 0.2% -0.6% 0.2% 0.4% -0.6% -0.4% Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.7% -0.1% -0.4% -0.4% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-3.99 $-3.94 $-7.52 $-6.80 $-7.39 $-4.32 $-5.28 As a % of Asking Rent -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.4% -0.5%
Transcript
Page 1: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

Accelerating success.

Research & Forecast Report

CHARLOTTEQ1 2017 | Multifamily

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar

Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual

2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Mar-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Effective Rent Per Unit $1,028 $1,043 $1,031 $1,032 $1,041 $981 $1,026 $1,048 $1,083 $1,126 $1,160 $1,189

Per Sq. Ft $1.07 $1.08 $1.07 $1.07 $1.08 $1.02 $1.06 $1.09 $1.12 $1.17 $1.20 $1.23

Effective Rent Growth - Annually 4.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 5.4% 4.6% 2.2% 3.3% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 2.7% 1.4% -1.1% 0.1%

Occupancy Rate 95.8% 95.7% 95.3% 95.0% 94.9% 95.3% 95.5% 94.9% 95.2% 95.6% 95.0% 94.6%

Occupancy Change - Annually 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.6% 0.2% -0.6% 0.2% 0.4% -0.6% -0.4%

Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.7% -0.1% -0.4% -0.4%

Economic Concessions Concession Value $-3.99 $-3.94 $-7.52 $-6.80 $-7.39 $-4.32 $-5.28

As a % of Asking Rent -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.4% -0.5%

Page 2: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

Multifamily Absorption and Supply

Annual 1Q17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Total Units Absorbed 6,168 6,951 7,778 8,487 264,921 7,516 7,802 5,126 3,740 5,669

New Supply 5,772 6,249 8,385 8,695 350,515 9,314 6,837 4,968 5,601 6,206

Inventory Growth 3.7% 3.9% 5.0% 4.9% 1.4% 5.3% 3.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1%

Market Employment and Permitting

Annual February-17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Employment (000s) 1,066.2 1,108.8 1,149.5 1,161.2 144,271.0 1,173.8 1,200.5 1,234.5 1,262.9 1,286.3

Job Gain (000s) 37.2 42.6 40.7 35.5 2,352.0 24.4 26.7 34.0 28.4 23.4

Job Growth (%) 3.6% 4.0% 3.7% 3.2% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9%

Total Residential Permitting 17,812 18,790 19,353 18,545 1,101,437 20,010 22,045 24,750 21,085 19,226

Relative Change 10.4% 5.5% 3.0% 9.1% 0.3% 3.4% 10.2% 12.3% -14.8% -8.8%

Single Family Units Permitted 11,157 11,742 12,989 12,313 702,275

Relative Change 7.5% 5.2% 10.6% 13.8% 9.0%

Multifamily Units Permitted 6,510 6,861 6,293 6,159 368,649

Relative Change 16.5% 5.4% -8.3% 2.4% -12.8%

Multifamily as a % of Total 36.5% 36.5% 32.5% 33.2% 33.5%

Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.1

Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.7

Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 6.7 6.5 5.9 5.9 5.6

SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.7%.

Axiometrics forecasts Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.3% in 2018, with 26,700 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 2.3% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 28,597 jobs added each year.

On the supply side, permits for 6,910 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in February 2017, up 617 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 20,355 units were permitted in the 12 months ending February 2017, an increase of 1,002 units from the prior year’s total.

Page 3: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of April 16, 2017, Axiometrics has identified 8,701 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, of which, 1,143 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 8,296 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,430 per unit, or $1.57 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,345, or $1.47 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-85.33. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,039 per unit ($1.08 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,032 per unit, or $1.07 per square foot, in 1Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-6.80.

Submarket Delivery Schedule

Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend

Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent

Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Downtown 703 625 1,659 2,987 564 9 $1,745 $2.06 $1,597 $1.89

Fairview North 507 1,018 726 2,251 762 11 $1,697 $1.93 $1,555 $1.76

N. Tryon St. - The Plaza 182 397 1,179 1,758 319 9 $1,412 $1.71 $1,322 $1.60

North Pineville 52 114 972 1,138 91 8 $1,377 $1.47 $1,280 $1.37

Rock Hill 729 1,056 1,066 2,851 527 12 $1,152 $1.08 $1,125 $1.06

Other 3,207 5,086 3,099 11,392 3,622 14 $1,345 $1.43 $1,273 $1.35

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 5,380 8,296 8,701 22,377 5,885 12 $1,433 $1.57 $1,344 $1.47*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period

Page 4: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units

Mar-17 The Hamptons Charlotte 8415 University Station Cir Charlotte 180 1995 21,250,000.00 118,056

Mar-17 Morehead West Apartments 1932 W Morehead St Charlotte 211 2015 31,500,000.00 149,289

Mar-17 Wesley Village 2715 Wet Stone Way Charlotte 301 2009 57,200,000.00 190,033

Mar-17 Bridges at Quail Hollow 7561 Quail Meadow Ln Charlotte 90 1981 10,750,000.00 119,444

Feb-17 Bramar Gardens 3115 Southwest Blvd Charlotte 137 1968 1,850,000.00 13,504

Feb-17 Stone Ridge 8940 Camden Creek Ln Charlotte 318 2001 43,200,000.00 135,849

Feb-17 Whitehall Estates 2500 Whitehall Estates Dr Charlotte 252 1996 30,900,000.00 122,619

Feb-17 The Timbers 3317 Magnolia Hill Dr Charlotte 341 1988 17,500,000.00 51,320

Jan-17 Rock Creek at Ballantyne Commons

7810 Spindletop Pl Charlotte 330 1996 54,549,995.00 165,303

Jan-17 The Vinoy at Innovation Park Apartments

8108 Vinoy Blvd Charlotte 356 2005 52,750,000.00 148,174

Jan-17 Legacy Matthews 1701 Gander Cove Ln Matthews 288 1988 29,500,064.00 102,431

Jan-17 Arbor Steele Creek 12235 Stone Arbor Way Charlotte 384 2004 46,080,000.00 120,000

Jan-17 Shadow Creek Apartments 4132 Gardner Ridge Dr Gastonia 50 1991 2,350,000.00 47,000

Jan-17 Bella Vista 2442 Chartes Dr Gastonia 250 1974 13,190,014.50 52,760

Dec-16 Loft 135 135 W Morehead St Charlotte 298 2014 78,500,000.00 263,423

Dec-16 Plantation Pointe 106 Plantation Pointe Loop Mooresville 260 2014 35,000,000.00 134,615

Dec-16 Carriage Club 175 Carriage Club Dr Mooresville 268 2000 32,830,000.00 122,500

Dec-16 Grove at Morrison Plantation 156 Capital Ave Mooresville 281 2014 43,500,000.00 154,804

Dec-16 Post Uptown Place 525 West 7th St Charlotte 227 2000 Confidential Confidential

Dec-16 Post Gateway Place 120 N Cedar St Charlotte 436 2000 Confidential Confidential

Dec-16 Post Park at Phillips Place 4835 Cameron Valley Pkwy Charlotte 402 1998 Confidential Confidential

Dec-16 Post Ballantyne Place 14205 Ballantyne Lakes Dr Charlotte 319 2004 Confidential Confidential

Dec-16 Post South End 1424 South Blvd Charlotte 360 2009 Confidential Confidential

Nov-16 Park 2300 Apartments 2300 Village Lake Dr Charlotte 384 1985 33,600,000.00 87,500

Nov-16 Marq Midtown 205 205 Kings Dr Charlotte 261 2016 63,350,000.00 242,720

Nov-16 Fairways at Birkdale 16501 Stonemason Dr Huntersville 180 1998 27,850,000.00 154,722

Nov-16 Alexander Place 6316 Cameron Forest Ln Charlotte 309 1985 48,999,994.70 158,576

Nov-16 Matthews Lofts 809 Park Center Dr Matthews 81 2012 10,400,500.00 128,401

RECENT SALES

Page 5: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

PIPELINE MAP

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Key

Lease-Up

Under Construction

Proposed

GREATER CHARLOTTE

DOWNTOWN CHARLOTTE

Downtown Charlotte

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20

Page 6: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

PIPELINE DETAIL

# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsLease Up1 Solis Ballantyne Lease Up Terwilliger Pappas 9550 Community House Ballantyne 1942 La Vie SouthPark Lease Up UBS Realty Investors LLC 5725 Carnegie Blvd Barclay Downs 3213 Encore Southpark Lease Up Simpson Property Group 6205 Morrison Blvd Barclay Downs 2804 Vistas at 707 Lease Up Horizon Development Prop, Inc. 707 Seigle Ave Belmont 1905 Legacy Concord Lease Up Goldberg Companies, Inc. 5020 Avent Dr NW Cabarrus Country Club 3486 Solis Dilworth Lease Up Terwilliger Pappas 1010 Kenilworth Ave Dilworth 1847 The Lexington Dilworth Lease Up Marsh Euclid Apartments, LLC 1106 Euclid Ave Dilworth 2358 Berkshire Dilworth Lease Up Berkshire Group 1351 E Morehead St Dilworth 2969 Alta Berewick Lease Up Wood Partners 7015 Skye Bridge Way Dixie-Berryhill 26610 The Gibson Lease Up Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1000 Central Ave Elizabeth 17811 Horizons at Steele Creek Lease Up The Carroll Companies 10615 Steele Creek Rd Griers Fork 28812 Boulevard 98 Lease Up Canada Pension Plan Invest Board 9825 University City Blvd Harris-Houston 30013 5115 Park Place Lease Up Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 5115 Park Rd Madison Park 27314 Sovereign at Belgate Lease Up Davis Development 6008 Lewis St Mineral Springs 26615 Barringer's Trace Apartments Lease Up Sp & D Mt Pleasant Llc 901 Ross Cir Mount Pleasant 6416 Woodfield Northlake Lease Up Woodfield Investments 8524 Mason Andrew Way Northlake 31017 Silver Collection at The Park Lease Up Silver Companies 13816 Boren St Outer Huntersville/Cornel 26418 Lofts at Charleston Row - P II Lease Up New Forum, Inc. 2025 Ayrsley Town Blvd Outer South Charlotte 13219 The Residence at Tailrace

MarinaLease Up Arnold Companies 1001 Marina Village Dr Outlying Gaston County 192

20 The Landing at Park Road Lease Up Park and Marsh Seniors, LLC 3126 Park Rd Sedgefield 9221 Copus 1 Indian Trail Lease Up Bonterra Builders, LLC 1021 Glenn Valley Ln Union County 20422 Circa Uptown Lease Up The Prudential Insurance

Company of America360 S Graham St Uptown Charlotte 243

23 SkyHouse Uptown Lease Up Grubb Properties 640 N Church St Uptown Charlotte 616Units 5,736

Under Construction24 District South Under Construction Flournoy Companies 12600 District South Dr Ballantyne 39725 The Lofts at Hawthorne Mill Under Construction Clachan Properties LLC 1101 Hawthorne Ln Belmont 15026 Prosperity Church Apartments Under Construction Wood Partners 2934 Ridge Rd Davis Lake-Eastfield 29227 Harding Place Under Construction Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. 1301 Harding Pl Dilworth 25528 Solis Southline Under Construction Pappas Properties, LLC 2520 South Blvd Dilworth 31329 The Dillon Under Construction Lincoln Property Company 905 Kenilworth Ave Dilworth 37930 Lincoln Dilworth Under Construction Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. Morehead St & Kenilworth Dilworth 38031 Solis Berewick Under Construction Pappas Properties, LLC 4913 Dixie River Rd Dixie-Berryhill 27532 The Stevenson Apartments Under Construction Charlotte-Mecklenburg Housing

Partnership, Inc.1445 Samuel St Double Oaks 130

33 The Gibson - P II Under Construction Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1000 Central Ave Elizabeth 7234 The Langston Under Construction White Edward A 1925 E 7th St Elizabeth 9135 Capital Crossing at Whitehall Under Construction TWO Capital Partners, LLC 14200 Brown Grier Rd Griers Fork 27136 University City Apartments Under Construction Development Advisors, Inc. 6801 N Tryon St Hidden Valley 37637 The Abbey Under Construction Spectrum Companies 1415 Abbey Pl Madison Park 26038 Rodden Square Apartments Under Construction Connelly Builders 6520 Mallard Creek Rd Mineral Springs 9839 Aspire SouthPark Under Construction Grubb Properties 345 Sharon Township Ln Myers Park 36740 Crescent NoDa Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 424 E 36th St North Charlotte 34441 Whitehall Crossing Under Construction MPV Properties, LLC 2600 W Arrowood Rd Olde Whitehall 9642 Brookson Residential Flats P II Under Construction LIV Development, LLC 13428 Bryton Gap Blvd Outer Huntersville/Cornel 14643 Concord Ridge Apartments Under Construction Tribute Companies 3635 Coventry Commons Outlying Cabarrus County 45244 Station at Poplar Tent Under Construction Tynes Development 50 Poplar Station Cir Outlying Cabarrus County 31045 Revere at Lake Wylie - P II Under Construction Gross Residential 1001 Wylie Springs Cir Outlying York County 14446 CampusWorks - Plaza Midwood Under Construction The Carlyle Group 1205 Central Ave Plaza Midwood 34947 One 305 Central - Phase II Under Construction TriBridge Residential 1305 Central Ave Plaza Midwood 206

Over 50 Multifamily Developments Proposed for the Charlotte area.

Page 7: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 7www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.

Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.

How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.

48 Midwood Station Under Construction DPJ Residential 2007 Central Ave Plaza Midwood 9749 Rea Farms Apartments Under Construction Rea Farms Construction LLC 11500 Providence Rd Providence Crossing 50050 Crescent Providence Farm Under Construction Bahakel Communications 11355 Providence Rd Providence Estates East M 39451 Bainbridge South End Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 175 Poindexter Dr Sedgefield 20052 Centric Gateway Under Construction Dominion Realty Partners, LLC 1010 W Trade St Uptown Charlotte 29753 Ascent Uptown Under Construction Greystar Real Estate Partners 224 W 3rd St Uptown Charlotte 30054 Crescent Stonewall Station Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 300 E Stonewall St Uptown Charlotte 45955 Museum Tower Apartments Under Construction Wells Fargo & Company 525 S Church St Uptown Charlotte 39456 Stonewall Mixed Use Under Construction Northwood Ravin 550 E Stonewall St Uptown Charlotte 42157 SkyHouse Uptown - Tower II Under Construction Grubb Properties 601 N Tryon St Uptown Charlotte 37358 Cadence Music Factory Under Construction ARK Group 606 NC Music Factory Uptown Charlotte 20559 Montage Under Construction The Walsh Group 650 E Stonewall St Uptown Charlotte 30260 Tenth Street Apts and Deck Under Construction Levine Properties, Inc. 707 N Brevard St Uptown Charlotte 20061 West Morehead Lofts Under Construction ArchCo Residential 1331 W Morehead St Wesley Heights 287

Units 10,582

Total Units 16,318

# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsUnder Construction

PIPELINE DETAIL, continued

Page 8: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 8www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings

WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most

experienced teams of multifamily

specialists in the industry

Units sold since 2011

33,500MORE THAN

Group gross transaction value in since 2011

$2.3B

Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors

50MORE THAN

Expansive geographic footprint

20COVERING OVER

STATES

Oaktree ApartmentsDurham, NCUnits: 24

Sommerset PlaceRaleigh, NCUnits: 144

Falcon Pointe ApartmentsWinston Salem, NCUnits: 120

Crest at ElonElon, NCUnits: 42

Arbor TownhomesGreensboro, NCUnits: 150

Arlington West ApartmentsJacksonville, NCUnits: 324

Eagle PointDurham, NCUnits: 323

Teal PointCharlotte, NCUnits: 216

Taylor Place ApartmentsChocowinity, NCUnits: 40

Wolf Creek ApartmentsRaleigh, NCUnits: 385

Oakview TerraceHigh Point, NCUnits: 150

Geneva Park ApartmentsCary, NCUnits: 248

Hidden LakesGreensboro, NCUnits: 483

Land SaleCharlotte, NCAcres: 25.8

Land SaleCharlotte, NCAcres: 17.245

Page 9: Research & Forecast Report...According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.2% in February 2017, reflecting 35,500 jobs

www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:

Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION

INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP

[email protected] +1 404 877 9285

Brooks ColquittASSOCIATE | EAST REGION

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[email protected] +1 704 409 9933

AT YOUR SERVICE

Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION

[email protected] +1 404 574 1061


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