Research  needs  for  the  advancement  of  integrated  crop-­‐

livestock-­‐tree  systems  

Henry  Neufeldt  World  Agroforestry  Centre  (ICRAF)  

Nutritional content of global cereal supply has declined as

production has increased since 1960.

DeFries et al. Science 2015;349:238-240 Published by AAAS

Intensifica<on  has  spared  18  to  27  million  hectares  that  would  have  been  required  to  produce  the  same  amount  of  cereals  with  yields  equivalent  to  those  in  the  mid-­‐1960s.  

But  intensifica<on  can  exacerbate  land-­‐clearing  in  the  absence  of  appropriate  policies  and  enforcement.  Moreover,  intensifica<on  relies  on  high  inputs  of  energy,  fer<lizer,  pes<cides,  and  water.  

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.019

79

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Years

Rea

l GD

P g

row

th (%

)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Var

iabi

lity

in R

ainf

all (

Met

er)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Correla8on  between  GDP  and  rainfall  in  Zimbabwe  

•  Farmers  most  interested  in  reducing  food  insecurity  •  No  long-­‐  or  medium-­‐term  planning  possible  under  food  insecure  situa<on  •  Tree  plan<ng  (and  other  investments  in  livelihood  improvements)  only  

aTer  basic  food  security  is  guaranteed  •  Food  insecurity  rose  by  at  least  one  month  (above  on  average  3  months)  

during  drought  and  flooding  •  Coping  strategies  lead  into  ‘poverty  trap’  •  Agroforestry  reduced  food  insecurity  by  about  1  month  

All  #s  in  %  

Reduce  Quan<ty,  Quality  or  #  of  meals  

Comm-­‐unity  or  family  support  

Help  from  Gov,  NGO,  Church  

Borrow  money  

Casual  Labor  

Sell  possess-­‐ions  or  livestock  

Consume  Seeds  

Children  a^end  school  less  

Lower  Nyando  

85   30   42   32   28   72   72   38  

Middle  Nyando  

38   23   18   37.5   25   40   61   12.5  

Farmer  climate  coping  strategies  

Thorlakson  and  Neufeldt  2012  

Climate  change  impacts  on  yields  

2°C

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2010 2040 2070 2100

shar

e of

wor

ld G

DP 3°C

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2010 2040 2070 2100

shar

e of

wor

ld G

DP

Extra costs without adaptationAdaptation costsMitigation costsResidual damages

Baseline

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2010 2040 2070 2100

shar

e of

wor

ld G

DP

Globally,  residual  damages  can  be  limited  with  2  degrees  and  adapta<on  

(Source:  Hof  et  al.,  2010)  

Photos: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

Humanity’s provisioning at the

land water energy nexus and

“safe(r) space”

What  will  we  call  the  boundaries  of    Safe(r)  opera8ng  spaces  for  the  food  systems?  

Beddington  et  al,  2012.  Science  And  how  will  we  nest  scales  effec<vely  and  efficiently?  

Short  term   Long  term  

Food  security  

Mi<ga<on  Adapta<on  

Small  scales  

Large  scales  

Climate-­‐smart  agriculture  

Efficiency  

Fairness  

Food  Systems  

Presenter   ICLT  systems/  prac8ces  

Labor  demand  

Land  area  available  

Degree  of  mechaniza8on  

Scalability?  

Luis  Alvarez  Welchez  

Sistema  Quesungual   High   Low   Low   Low?  

Tilahun  Amede  

CLS  in  SSA  Rainwater  management  Micro  dosing  

High  High  High  

Medium  Low  L  to  H  

Low  Low  to  high  Low    

Medium?  High  High  

Paulo  Herrmann  

iLPF  (ICLF)  in  Brazil   Low   High   High   High  

Muhammad  Ibrahim  

Live  fences  Mul<strata  systems  Silvopastoral  systems  

Medium  High  High  

Low  Low  Medium  

Low  Low  Low  

Medium  Low  Medium?  

Paul  Burges   Dehasa  Montado  Bocage  Wood  pastures  Intercropping  Grazed  orchards  Alley  cropping  

Medium  Medium  Medium  Medium  Low  Medium  Low  

Medium  Medium  Medium  Medium  High  Medium  High  

Medium  Medium  Medium  Medium  High  Medium  High  

Medium  Medium  Medium  Medium  Medium?  Medium  High  

Sustainability Challenges – Land Use

Food vs. Fuel

Pastoral Land Use

Biodiversity

Watershed

Land Use – Socioeconomic & Environmental Sustainability

Innova8on  and  food  security  

Rela<onship  between  innova<veness  (number  of  farming  system  changes)  and  household  food  security  (number  of  food  deficit  months).  Error  bars  indicate  the  95%  confidence  interval  of  the  mean    

Kristjanson  et  al  2012  

Financial  benefits  of  no-­‐<ll  wheat  produc<on  in  northern  Kasakhstan  

Derpsch  et  al  2010  

 Researching,  learning,  impac8ng  together!  

hQps://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostRecent=&trk=&gid=6657402  

 

hQp://ccsl.wikispaces.com/Sandbox  

h^p://thedata.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/CCAFSbaseline/faces/StudyLis<ngPage.xhtml;jsessionid=efc0985167adbf520e185e5a39b1?mode=1&collec<onId=4844  

Effects  of  tenure  on  land  management  

Constraints:  insecure  tenure  

Economic,  Environmental  and  Social  Impacts   Unadjud   Freehold   Tenure  

Effect  Net  returns  to  land  ($  ha-­‐1  y-­‐1)   $126   $288   2.28  Woody  crops,  woodlots  etc  (ha  km-­‐2)   5.4   25.6   4.7  Hedgerows  (km  km-­‐2)   5.2   23.6   4.5  Social  cost  from  embedding   -­‐$40   $30   $70  Social  "tax"   -­‐32%   +10%       Norton-­‐Griffiths  2012  

Priority  Ac8ons:    v  Improve   networking   and   partnership  

building   for   climate   adapta<on   along  the   value   chain   by   strengthening  exis<ng   plaoorms   at   all   levels   and  explore  the  role  of  market  incen<ves  in  suppor<ng  such  ac<vi<es,  

v  Develop   new,   flexible   financial  products   to   support   climate-­‐resilient  and   inclusive   agro-­‐value   chains  through   capac i ty   bui ld ing   and  innova<ve  public-­‐private  partnerships,  

v  I n v e s t   i n   c l i m a t e -­‐ r e s i l i e n t  infrastructures  such  as  roads,  irriga<on  systems,   storage   fac i l i<es   and    telecommunica<ons   should   remain   a  top  priority  to  support  agro-­‐value  chain  development   and   build   produc<ve  capaci<es  in  a  changing  climate.  

CRCV  ini<a<ve    

Value  chains:  a  case  of  climate-­‐resilient  coffee  (2)  

Global  market  forces  

Chesterman  and  Neely,  2015  

–  Moving  from  sex  disaggregated  diagnos<c  research  towards  informing,  catalyzing  and  targe<ng  adapta<on  and  mi<ga<on  solu<ons  to  women    

–  Finding:    Gender  norms  must  be  addressed  to  achieve  the  UN  Sustainable  Development  Goals  

Gender  and  inclusion  for  resilience  

•  Can  we  predict  what  makes  integrated  crop-­‐livestock-­‐tree  systems  scalable?  •  How  can  we  incen<vize  the  adop<on  of  ICLTS  through  horizontal  and  ver<cal  scaling?  •  What  are  the  metrics  we  need  to  characterize  system  proper<es  at  appropriate  scales?  •  How  can  we  support  decision-­‐makers  (at  all  relevant  scales)  in  making  be^er  decisions?  

Evergreen  agriculture  with    

Faidherbia  albida  

Sendzimir  et  al  2011  

GHG  mi<ga<on  through  agroforestry  by  regions  

Region   Annual  rate   2000-­‐2010  2011-­‐2030  (Mt  CO2/yr)   (Mt  CO2)   (Mt  CO2)  

North  America   24.6   270   491  Central  America   10.1   111   201  South  America   157.3   1,730   3,145  Europe   7.2   79   144  N  Africa  +  W  Asia   2.7   29   53  Sub-­‐Saharan  Africa   10.0   110   201  N  +  Central  Asia   -­‐4.0   -­‐44   -­‐79  South  Asia   23.5   258   469  South-­‐East  Asia   23.8   262   477  East  Asia   36.2   398   723  Oceania   19.2   211   384  Globe   262.8   2,891   5,256  

%   Gt  CO2/yr  0   0.26  20   0.37  25   0.39  30   0.41  50   0.47  

"The  landscape  approach  has  been  championed  by  organiza<ons  ac<ve  in  the  development  and  conserva<on  sectors  for  many  years,  though  the  concept  has  been  slow  to  migrate  into  mainstream  corporate  thinking.  Now  this  report  from  the  Landscape  for  People,  Food  and  Nature  Ini<a<ve,  sets  out  a  case  for  companies  to  think  about  their  business  in  landscape  terms."    

 -­‐  José  Lopez,  Execu?ve  Vice  

President,  Opera?ons,  Nestlé  S.A.    

Connec<ng  commodi<es  to  landscapes  through  public-­‐private-­‐civic  partnerships  SBSTA  40,  6  June  2014  

Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting

Agribusinesses  and  food  sector  response  to  sustainability  risks  from  field  to  landscape  

Connec<ng  commodi<es  to  landscapes  through  public-­‐private-­‐civic  partnerships  SBSTA  40,  6  June  2014  

Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting

The$Guardian$

www.getreal.com,

Photo:  Guardian  

INSTITUTIONAL  CAPACITY  

AGROECOSYSTEM  

ASSETS  

Mi<ga<on  Economic  changes   Buffer  filter    

                         Abundant      Limited        

Fragile                                                          Robust  

Strong                

Weak    

A  

External  drivers,    

hasards  and  exposure  

PATHWAY  Time  1  à  Time  2  SCENARIOS  A.  Different  driver  B.  Same  asset  

Less  vulnerable  

More  vulnerable  

1  

2  

B  

UNCERTAINTY  CLOUD  

Indicator  -­‐  AE  1  -­‐  AE2  -­‐  AE3  -­‐  …  -­‐  AEN  

Indicator  -­‐  A1  -­‐  A2  -­‐  A3  -­‐  A4    -­‐  …  -­‐  AN  

Indicator  -­‐  I1    -­‐  I2  -­‐  I3  -­‐  …  -­‐  IN  

Reduced  Risk  

Increased  Risk  Based  on    Fraser  et  al,  2011  

Agreement  on  goals/values  

No  agreement  on  goals/values  

High  uncertainty  

Low  uncertainty  

The  role  of  science  and  research  in  complex  systems  

Straighoorward  design  

Providing  arguments  

Monitor  emerging  change  

Collabora<ve  ac<on  research  

Study  diversity  

Experiment  with  mul<ple  op<ons  

Extracted  from  Leeuwis,  2014  

Complex  systems  thinking  

Discovery,  tes<ng  and  implementa<on  of  mechanisms  across  scales  that  allow  for  adap<ve  management  and  adap<ve  governance  of  social-­‐ecological  systems  essen<al  for  long-­‐term  human  provisioning    Development  of  integrated  metrics  of  safe  space  that  are  prac<cal  and  meaningful  for  decision-­‐making  by  relevant  communi<es  in  near  real  <me    Systema<c  gathering  and  integra<on  of  quality  data  and  informa<on  to  generate  knowledge  in  <me  frames  and  at  scales  relevant  for  decision-­‐making  through  analy<cal  tools,  models  and  scenarios    Establishment  of  legi<mate  and  empowered  science  policy  dialogues  that  frame  post–disciplinary  science  agendas  on  local,  na<onal  and  interna<onal  scales  

Key  areas  of  science  innova<on  

Neufeldt  et  al  2013,  Agriculture  and  Food  Security  

Research  for  the  advancement  of  integrated  crop-­‐livestock-­‐tree  systems  will  need  to  become  more  integrated,  post-­‐disciplinary  

and  systems  oriented  

Thanks  for  a  future