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Research on National and Global Mitigation Pathways to Keep the Paris Climate Goals in Reach: The Case for Enhanced Action . Authors: Elmar Kriegler, Christoph Bertram (PIK), Heleen van Soest, Detlef van Vuuren (PBL), Roberto Schaeffer (COPPE), Keywan Riahi (IIASA) The COMMIT and CD-LINKS consortia Contact: Elmar Kriegler Acting Head Department 3 Transformation Pathways Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [email protected] Country specificities play a key role in designing national low-emission strategies. National-level models capture such specificities and show that strategies depend on policy priorities, domestic energy resources and broad socioeconomic considerations. Nevertheless, key features of decarbonisation pathways are shared. • Expansion of renewable energy sources for electricity, liquids, and gases. • Accelerated energy efficiency improvements in all demand sectors (buildings, transport, industries). • Electrification of final energy demand (mobility and heating). Fig. 1 Emissions in the year 2050 in a reference case (2 nd left bar) and a low carbon scenario (rightmost bar) and emissions reductions by sectors between them for 10 countries. Depending on the model, fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, total CO 2 emissions or greenhouse gas emissions in CO 2 -equivalent are shown. Source: COMMIT Project, Country Fact Sheets, https://themasites.pbl.nl/commit/products GLOBAL STOCKTAKE: ENHANCED ACTION KEEPS PARIS GOALS IN REACH POLICY ENTRY POINTS TO 1.5 o C and 2 o C PATHWAYS Fig. 3: Mitigation pathways staying below 2 o C throughout the century, and limiting warming to 1.5 o C by 2100, respectively, for different assumptions about near term climate policy and availability of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Results developed with the REMIND-MAgPIE model in the PEP1p5 project. Source: Kriegler et al., 2018, Environ. Res. Lett. 13: 074022 Fig. 2: Comparison of the collective emissions outcome from the seven largest emitters in 2050 (thick bar, stacked results from national model calculations augmented with rest of world (ROW) emissions from global models) with global emissions from cost-effective likely 2 o C pathways (thin grey bars) for two different types of long-term strategies: Progressively strengthening the NDCs (NDC-Pro; lower panel) and deep decarbonization with enhanced action until 2030 compared to the NDCs (DEEP; upper panel). Results from global and national models in the CD-LINKS project. Source: Kriegler et al. (2019), in preparation Team Models Country Model type CSIRO TIMES-AUS Australia Energy system COPPE BLUES/COFFEE Brazil Integrated Assessment ECCC GCAM-Canada, EC-MSMR Canada Energy system, Macro-economy NCSC, ERI PECE China Integrated energy system E3M PRIMES EU-28 Energy system TERI MARKAL India Energy system NIES AIM/Enduse [JPN] Japan Energy system HSE TIMES-RUS, ROBUL/ CBS-CFS3 Russia Energy system, Forestry UOS TIMES, AIM-Korea Korea Energy system PNNL GCAM USA Integrated Assessment China India Brazil EU28 Japan Australia Canada USA Russia Republic of Korea These projects have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 642147 (CD-LINKS), from the European Union’s DG CLIMA and EuropeAid under grant agreement No. 21020701/2017/770447/SER/CLIMA.C.1 EuropeAid/138417/DH/SER/MulitOC (COMMIT), and from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant agreement No. 01LS10A (PEP1p5). Detlef van Vuuren and Heleen van Soest Keywan Riahi and Volker Krey [email protected] [email protected] https://themasites.pbl.nl/commit & @COMMIT_MCS www.cd-links.org & @C_DLINKS www.pik-potsdam.de Elmar Kriegler: [email protected] NATIONAL LONG-TERM STRATEGIES ARE BEING EXPLORED BY MODEL ANALYSES, WHILE NATIONAL DEBATES ON MID-CENTURY GOALS ARE IN FLUX. The emissions gap between the collective emissions outcome of proposed NDCs and global CO 2 emissions from cost-effective pathways in 2030 can be significantly narrowed by global roll-out of good practice policies to enhance action until 2030 (additional reduction by ca. 10 GtCO 2 ). Policy packages include carbon pricing, renewable energy quotas, restrictions on new coal power plants w/o CCS, industry CCS, energy and fuel efficiency improvements, increase of electric vehicle share, higher nitrogen efficiency in agriculture, eliminating deforestation and 10 million ha/year afforestation.
