Research Week 2009‐2010 University of Mauritius A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh1.

Research Week 2009‐2010University of Mauritius

A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh 1

What and Why? Definitions…A carbon budget is a set amount of carbon

that can be emitted in a given amount of time, either by the whole economy, or a pre-selected sub-population or set of activities

The carbon footprint is a measure of the impact human activities have on the environment in terms of the amount of GHG’s produced, measured in tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2).


What and Why? Problem statement…As climate change becomes more and more a

central issue in local, national, and international discussions, understanding the global carbon budget, and how it influences trends in global warming, will become increasingly crucial.

Mauritius has undergone various structural changes as reflected by its land use characteristics and the various production and consumption patterns as more developments are ongoing and the need for transportation

What, how and where in the local context, contributes to climate change through carbon emissions and removals.


Aims To show how Geographical Information System

(GIS) and Geo-Statistics can provide methods to look at dispersion of air emissions and its receptors that are human beings and the environment, particularly the vegetations that act as sinks.

Develop GIS systems and Models to estimate the carbon emissions and removals within the different land use categories of Mauritius

Explore possibilities to mitigate climate change processes through simulated projects involving avoided emissions or natural carbon sequestrations


Specific objectivesUnderstand the processes responsible for

adding carbon (sources) to the atmosphere and for removing it (sinks)

Study of Land Use patterns Map the sources and sinks of GHG’sDevelop the appropriate method to calculate

the emissions and removals of GHG’s at the level of ground details such as roads, rivers built-up areas, forestry and agriculture

Develop models A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh 5

Coverage of ResearchCarbon budget should cover all Mauritian

greenhouse gas, BUT mainly carbon dioxide, emissions/removals within the mainland

Carbon footprint should depict ‘responsibility’ of various geographic areas (land categories) as well as socio-economic sectors, by indicating respective emission/removal rates of carbon


The Carbon Cycle


Source: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science, 2007

Literature SurveyInter-governmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) fourth assessment report 2007Understanding the Global Carbon Budget,

Richard Houghton, Senior Scientist, Carbon Research, 2007

National Air Emission Inventory (NAEI) – UK, 2008

Carbo Euro GHG Project 2003 New Zealand Carbon Budget Project 2005

Mind Map


Materials and MethodsThe use of extrapolation methods such as

krigging in geostatistics has been applied to generate contour maps of pollution levels.

Application of GIS to study land use patterns in Mauritius

Sampling techniques and surveys to collect geographical, household, business and scientific data to estimate both the ‘direct’ and ‘embedded’ carbon emission attributable to household and business consumptions;

IPCC based methods will be used in calculations. Other approaches include on line calculators


MethodsThe calculations are based on the following

equation:= Σ ij ij E A F ,

where E: Emission of pollutant; A ij : Activity statistic, i.e. amount of fuel burnt; F ij : emission factor, i.e. emission per unit of fuel burnt,

i: fuel type and j: fuel combustion plant or site.


MethodsLet i i i i X X X 1 2 3 4 , , denote the average of the amount of emissions for , SO2, CO, and NOx over the seven period respectively for the ith sample point (13 locations with no missing values) over the island which is standardised standardise as follows


For each set of standardised data, we develop layers in the form of indices, ji

A combined layer is then developed for the ith location, using the index, i I ,

GIS


Source:InWent, Germany

Data sources• Household and Business surveys, micro-data

– Available for researchers, upon request from Central Statistics Office

CEB – fuel used for electricity generationAREU/Min.of Housing/MSIRI: Land use

patternsForestrySatellite DataOthers


Satellite ImageLandsat satellite image of Mauritius, 2000 (Source: Global Land Cover Facility)


OutcomesVisual display of sites or regions where air

pollutants are destined and where monitoring programs need to be improved.

GIS maps of regional carbon budget and carbon footprint


Land Use Patterns

Source: Prof SDDV Rughooputh


CO2 Emissions Trend, Mauritius, 1970 – 2006 (Data Source: J.Baguant , Energy Data Book 1988)


CO2 emissions, Mauritius, 1970 - 2006

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

4000.00

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Year

CO

2 em

issi

on

s, t

on

s

CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions by sector , Mauritius, 2000 – 2006, Source: Central Statistics Office


Some ResultsMap for CO2 Emissions


Map for SO2 Emissions


Map for CO Emissions


Map for Com

bined Emissions U

sing

Composite Index


On-Going and Future works Road traffic emissionsStatistical modelling and Spatio-temporal

modellingProcessing of Satellite dataDevelopment of Carbon budget ModelsDevelopment of carbon offset strategies for scenario

analysis that will complement policy related work;Development of a robust understanding of the links

between lifestyles, societal values and the environment.


Acknowlegement

• TEC Sponsored MPhil/PhD Research @ UoM

• Central Statistics Office CEB – fuel used for electricity generation


ContactsA. Sookun1: [email protected]

R. Boojhawon1: [email protected]

SDDV Rughooputh2: [email protected]

1 Department of Mathematics2 Department of Physics

Faculty of ScienceUniversity of MauritiusA Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh 26

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Research Week 2009‐2010 University of Mauritius A Sookun, R Boojhawon, SDDV Rughooputh1.

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