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RESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC REPORT (NATIONAL EDITION) SEPTEMBER 2009
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RESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC REPORT (NATIONAL EDITION)
SEPTEMBER 2009
REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS WEBINAR SCHEDULE
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research, and the study and education of professional ethics.
GAZARIAN REAL ESTATE CENTER
www. www.craig.csufresno.edu/gazarian/
RESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC REPORT
(NATIONAL EDITION)
EMPLOYMENT
UNITED STATESTotal Non-Farm
109
,48
6,5
83
108
,37
4,5
00
108
,72
6,1
67
110
,84
3,7
50
114
,29
0,5
00
117
,29
7,5
83
119
,70
8,0
00
122
,77
6,4
17
125
,92
9,6
67
128
,99
3,0
00
131
,78
4,8
33
131
,82
5,6
67
130
,34
1,0
00
129
,99
9,0
83
131
,43
4,9
17
133
,70
2,8
33
136
,08
6,4
17
137
,59
8,4
17
137
,06
5,5
00
132
,35
8,8
33
131
,53
5,7
00
132
,26
1,2
08
133
,69
0,5
33
135
,80
4,0
33
138
,63
0,2
33
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
110,000,000
120,000,000
130,000,000
140,000,000
150,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
est
2010
prj
2011
prj
2012
prj
2013
prj
2014
prj
5-Year Forecast
12-MONTH JOB CHANGEUNITED STATES
Total Non-Farm 12-Month Change
0
-1,1
12
,08
3
35
1,6
67
2,1
17,
58
3
3,4
46,
75
0
3,0
07,
08
3
2,4
10,
41
7
3,0
68,
41
7
3,1
53,
25
0
3,0
63,
33
3
2,7
91,
83
3
40
,833
-1,4
84
,66
7
-34
1,9
17
1,4
35,
83
3
2,2
67,
91
7
2,3
83,
58
3
1,5
12,
00
0
-53
2,9
17
-4,7
06
,66
7
-82
3,1
33
72
5,5
08
1,4
29,
32
5
2,1
13,
50
0
2,8
26,
20
0
-6,000,000
-4,000,000
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
est
2010
prj
2011
prj
2012
prj
2013
prj
2014
prj
5-Year Forecast
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNITED STATES Civilian Unemployment
5.6
%
6.8
%
7.5
%
6.9
%
6.1
%
5.6
%
5.4
%
5.0
%
4.5
%
4.2
%
4.0
%
4.7
%
5.8
%
6.0
%
5.5
%
5.1
%
4.6
%
4.6
%
5.8
%
9.4
%
9.6
%
8.2
%
7.0
%
5.9
%
5.0
%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
est
2010
prj
2011
prj
2012
prj
2013
prj
2014
prj
5-Year Forecast
HOUSING CONSTRUCTION PATTERNS
12-MONTH CHANGE IN TOTAL HOUSING SUPPLYUNITED STATES
SEPTEMBER 2009
1,39
7,59
6
1,12
5,78
6
1,23
3,06
6
1,35
7,00
6
1,53
3,56
5
1,54
2,04
5
1,61
0,45
9
1,64
3,57
6
1,81
9,23
8
1,72
7,62
9
1,17
4,44
7
1,16
7,28
3
1,23
4,24
2
1,35
8,86
6
1,49
6,59
4
1,51
7,12
0
1,29
4,50
4
962,
125
652,
032
412,
881
259,
794
280,
178
361,
942
527,
728
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009est
2010prj
2011prj
2012prj
2013prj
2014prj
5-Year Forecast
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES
30-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGESNATIONAL AVERAGES
UNITED STATES
10.1
%
9.2%
8.4%
7.3%
8.4%
8.0%
7.8%
7.6%
6.9%
7.4%
8.1%
7.0%
6.6%
5.8%
5.8%
5.9%
6.4%
6.3%
6.0%
5.1%
5.2%
5.5%
5.9%
6.4%
7.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009est
2010prj
2011prj
2012prj
2013prj
2014prj
5-Year Forecast
POPULATION GROWTH
UNITED STATES
5-Year Change
Source: Real Estate Economics; Claritas; Dataquick; Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor.
FORECAST POPULATION CHANGES FROM 2009 TO 2014
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Ag
e <
5
Ag
e 5
-14
Ag
e 1
5-2
4
Ag
e 2
5-3
4
Ag
e 3
5-4
4
Ag
e 4
5-5
4
Ag
e 5
5-6
4
Ag
e 6
5-7
4
Ag
e 7
5-8
4
Ag
e 8
5+
5-Y
ea
r P
op
ula
tio
n C
ha
ng
e
HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH
UNITED STATES
5-Year Change
Source: Real Estate Economics; Claritas; Dataquick; Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor.
FORECAST HOUSEHOLD INCOME CHANGES FROM 2009 TO 2014
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
Less than $50k $50k - $100k $100k - $150k $150k - $200k $200k - $250k $250k +Houshold Income Range
5 Y
r. C
han
ge
in N
o.
of
Ho
use
ho
lds
HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY
UNITED STATES
* Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship between jobs and housing.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economicswww.realestateeconomics.com
HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS
90,000,000
95,000,000
100,000,000
105,000,000
110,000,000
115,000,000
120,000,000
125,000,000
130,000,000
135,000,000
140,000,000
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10 prj
Jan-11 prj
Jan-12 prj
Jan-13 prj
Jan-14 prj
Un
its
De
ma
nd
/Su
pp
lied
Supply of Housing Demand for Housing*
5-Year Forecast
HOUSING OVER/UNDER SUPPLY
UNITED STATES
* Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship between jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economicswww.realestateeconomics.com
OV
ER
BU
ILT
HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER SUPPLY PATTERNS
U
ND
ER
BU
ILT
(8,000,000)
(6,000,000)
(4,000,000)
(2,000,000)
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10 prj
Jan-11 prj
Jan-12 prj
Jan-13 prj
Jan-14 prj
5-Year Forecast
HOUSING VALUATIONUNITED STATES
* Over/Under valuation based on value of housing (inclusive of mortgage rates) relative to long-term relationship between housing value & household incomes.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economicswww.realestateeconomics.com
HOUSING VALUATION PATTERNS
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
$125,000
$150,000
$175,000
$200,000
$225,000
$250,000
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10 prj
Jan-11 prj
Jan-12 prj
Jan-13 prj
Jan-14 prj
Med
ian
Ho
usi
ng
Val
ue
Historical/Forecast Median Home Price Supportable Median Home Price*
5-Year Forecast
HOUSING OVER/UNDER VALUATION
UNITED STATES
* Over/Under valuation based on value of housing (inclusive of mortgage rates) relative to long-term relationship between housing value & household incomes. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economicswww.realestateeconomics.com
U
ND
ER
VA
LU
ED
OV
ER
VA
LU
ED
HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER VALUATION PATTERNS
($75,000)
($50,000)
($25,000)
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10 prj
Jan-11 prj
Jan-12 prj
Jan-13 prj
Jan-14 prj
5-Year Forecast
MEDIAN HOME PRICESUNITED STATESSEPTEMBER 2009
Time Median 12-Month Change
Period (Single-Family) # %
1990 $97,017 - -
1995 $116,492 $3,683 3.3%
2000 $146,517 $5,850 4.2%2001 $155,483 $8,967 6.1%2002 $167,042 $11,558 7.4%2003 $179,325 $12,283 7.4%2004 $194,208 $14,883 8.3%2005 $219,017 $24,808 12.8%2006 $221,583 $2,567 1.2%2007 $214,150 ($7,433) -3.4%2008 $193,375 ($20,775) -9.7%
2009est $174,834 ($18,541) -9.6%2010prj $176,365 $1,531 0.9%2011prj $180,108 $3,744 2.1%2012prj $185,042 $4,933 2.7%2013prj $191,600 $6,558 3.5%2014prj $200,083 $8,483 4.4%
www.realestateeconomics.com
Source: National Association of Realtors; Dataquick; Real Estate Economics
MEDIAN HOME PRICES
MEDIAN HOME PRICESMEDIAN HOME PRICES
UNITED STATESSEPTEMBER 2009
$9
7,0
17
$1
02
,50
0
$1
05
,01
7
$1
08
,74
2
$1
12
,80
8
$1
16
,49
2
$1
22
,26
7
$1
28
,65
0
$1
35
,46
7
$1
40
,66
7
$1
46
,51
7
$1
55
,48
3
$1
67
,04
2
$1
79
,32
5
$1
94
,20
8
$2
19
,01
7
$2
21
,58
3
$2
14
,15
0
$1
93
,37
5
$1
74
,83
4
$1
76
,36
5
$1
80
,10
8
$1
85
,04
2
$1
91
,60
0
$2
00
,08
3
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
est
20
10
prj
20
11
prj
20
12
prj
20
13
prj
20
14
prj
5-Year Forecast
MEDIAN HOME PRICESCHANGES IN MEDIAN HOME PRICES
UNITED STATESSEPTEMBER 2009
0 5.7
%
2.5
%
3.5
%
3.7
%
3.3
%
5.0
%
5.2
%
5.3
%
3.8
%
4.2
%
6.1
%
7.4
%
7.4
%
8.3
%
12
.8%
1.2
%
-3.4
%
-9.7
%
-9.6
%
0.9
%
2.1
%
2.7
%
3.5
%
4.4
%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
est
20
10
prj
20
11
prj
20
12
prj
20
13
prj
20
14
prj
5-Year Forecast
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS• The nation’s economy is in turmoil, with unprecedented
job losses, but a ‘floor’ has formed.• Housing Construction is at an all-time low and will
continue at even lower levels next year.• Housing Affordability is an all-time high.• Distressed Housing Inventory is beginning to burn off at
a rapid rate in many markets (mainly coastal markets).• Significant levels (but not a flood) of distressed land
inventory will soon be released by banks.• Banks will increasingly work with Asset Management
Teams to liquidate bad assets.• Economic growth resumes the latter part of Year 2010.• Marginal price appreciation begins in Year 2010, and
may build toward another cycle of double-digit appreciation after Year 2015.
RESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC REPORT
EXAMPLE METRO AREA REPORT:
FRESNO, CA MSA (FRESNO COUNTY)
DISTRESSED (SHADOW)INVENTORY
ANNUAL ESTIMATE OF DISTRESSED HOUSING INVENTORYFRESNO, CA MSASEPTEMBER 2009
1,0
73
89
9
73
3
48
1
25
0
1,0
72
2,4
63
1,8
68
1,4
52
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
est
20
10
prj
20
11
prj
20
12
prj
20
13
prj
20
14
prj
5-Year Forecast
ANNUAL HOUSING SUPPLY WITH DISTRESSED (SHADOW) INVENTORY
NEW HOUSING SUPPLY + DISTRESSED INVENTORYFRESNO, CA MSASEPTEMBER 2009
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009est
2010prj
2011prj
2012prj
2013prj
2014prj
New Home Construction Shadow Inventory
5-Year Forecast
REAL ESTATE ECONOMICSRESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC REPORT
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RESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC REPORTS FOR MAJOR METRO AREAS
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Note: other regions available by calling (949) 502-5151 x108 or x114 [email protected]
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(UPDATED UPON REQUEST)
Note: other regions available by calling (949) 502-5151 x108 or x114 [email protected]
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Mark Robbins Boud [email protected] REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS 8961 Research Drive Ste 200 Irvine, CA 92618 P: (949) 502-5151 F: (949) 502-5155
