Resource Justice Growth and economic development are scarce goods Multipolar World The cards of...

Resource JusticeGrowth and economic

development are scarce goods

Multipolar WorldThe cards of global power are

being reshuffled

Demographic ChangeThe North-South dichotomy

is gradually dissolving

Economic JusticeThe arithmetic of “Inclusive

Growth” does not add up

Climate JusticeThe widening gap between

cause and effect

Global GovernanceWhat the global community

is doing

“Global Transformation”Facts in 6 x 11 Figures

… fundamental transformation towardsmore sustainable modes of productionand consumption (Markard et al. 2012)

Transformation can be induced byniche innovations putting pressure

on the regime level (Mersmann 2010)

… is often “the result of many unlike processes “

(Loorbach & Rotmans 2005)

… fundamental shift … that includesguidance and visions for a sustainable future

(Mersmann 2010)

Few changes are truly transformational(Mersmann 2010)

While all transformations are changenot all change is transformational(Daszko & Sheinberg, 2005)

Transformation is the creation andchange of a whole new form, functionor structure (Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)

To transform is to create something new(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)

Transformation is motivated by survival(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)

Challenging assumption ..and paradigms... is at the heart of transformation

(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)

In transformation there is no known destination(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)

It is not a new way to do business(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)

It is a new way to develop thinkingabout how to think


There is no transformed organisationbecause transformation is ongoing

(Ruiz 1997)

Without intention, transformation will be reduced to change


Transformational change … occur when theexisting set of ideas that create order and

stability no longer work (Middletown 2007)

Transformational change does not address <economic> failures … <but> uses these failings

to argue for fundamental change (Middletown 2007)

Transformation is an approach, a philosophy and a methodology

(Glass 2010)

<in transformation> the future stateis unknown when you begin

(Anderson 2011)

Change fixes the past. Transformation creates the future.

(theprimes.com/)

Transformational change means you can’t go back

(imaworldwide.com)

<the Great transformation> very much depends on ‘organising the unplannable’

(WBGU 2011)

Transformational process

Transformational policies

Transformative learning

Transformational development

Transformational change

Transformative researchStructural transformation

Low carbon transformation

Transformation of a sector

Transformation education

Transformation of a whole economy

Transformation research

Transformative education

Transformation knowledgeTransformative thinking

Transformative action

Transforming Practice Transforming cities

Transforming cultures

Transforming hopeTransforming freedom

Conflict transformation

Transformative justice

Transformative shifts

«Ours is a colourful and diversified world

It is also a complex one»Li Peng

Multipolar WorldThe cards of global power are being reshuffled

Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled

Measured in terms of GDP, the recent economic crises have hit the industrialized economies the hardest ….

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/06/jahan.htm

1




… though producing not only losers but also winners, as recent statistics from the USA demonstrate2

https://rwer.wordpress.com/category/the-economy/inequality/




Emerging and developing economies already make up more than 50 percent of global GDP …

http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/120513.htm

3




… China, Brazil and India alone generate almost one third of global economic output – not for the first time in history

http://www.un-ngls.org/spip.php?page=article_s&id_article=4260

4



Source: Human Development Report 2013


The share of world merchandise trade is nearly equalbetween the Northern and Southern hemisphere nations5

http://www.economist.com/node/21528591


Already in 2020, there will be at least five emerging economies in the world’s top ten economies6

http://blog.euromonitor.com/2010/07/special-report-top-10-largest-economies-in-2020.html





Source: Human Development Report 2013


China is the largest trading partner of the poorest countriesin the Global South, with a rising trend7

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2013-12-11/5-questions-answered-on-why-the-g20-is-a-big-deal/1230564


More and more, the “Group of Twenty” (G20) is metamorphosing into a sort of world government 8





The number of autocratic states has declined, but there is a worrying rise in the number of anocracies (weak states)9

http://www.systemicpeace.org/conflict.htm




Despite the advance of democracy, the legal and policyspaces for civil society are shrinking worldwide10

http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/Policy%20Brief%20-%20%20Resisting%20the%20Global%20Crackdown%20on%20Civil%20Society%20-%

207-11-13.pdf

http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/Policy%20Brief%20-%20%20Resisting%20the%20Global%20Crackdown%20on%20Civil%20Society%20-%207-11-13.pdf




The revenues of the top 500 multinationals are estimated at 50% of World GDP; Google alone is as “rich” as the 28 poorest countries11

http://2thetopdesign.com/how-much-is-google-worth-2010-revenue-stats/



Demographic changeThe North-South dichotomy is dissolving

“Today in the era of globalization there is no such issue as borders between states of the

same nation.”Fatos Nano

Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving

Today, four out of five world citizens livein the Global South, and every second in South-East Asia1

http://www.visguy.com/2009/10/01/village-of-100-people-diagrams/ http://waitbutwhy.com/2013/08/what-if-all-71-billion-people-moved-to.html

http://www.visguy.com/2009/10/01/village-of-100-people-diagrams/

http://www.visguy.com/2009/10/01/village-of-100-people-diagrams/

http://waitbutwhy.com/2013/08/what-if-all-71-billion-people-moved-to.html

http://waitbutwhy.com/2013/08/what-if-all-71-billion-people-moved-to.html


World population will continue to grow considerably, but more slowly than in the recent past2

http://www.economist.com/node/14743589 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm



http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm



Since 2007, and for the first time, more people have been living in urban than in rural areas, and the trend towards urbanisation will

continue

3

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm




The reality of aging societies will increasinglyaffect the southern hemisphere too.4






Political and economic discrimination against women is a worldwide phenomenon and not just a development issue5

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/Worldswomen/wwPoweranddec2010.htm

Source: World Development Report 2012 p. 200

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1320950747192/8260293-1322665883147/WDR_2013_Report.pdf








Since 1995, the number of jobs has increased continuously, but so too has the number of people without employment

6

Source: IMF, Finance and development March 2006


Youth without paid employment is increasingly becoming a challenge for developed societies7

http://www.economist.com/news/international/21576657-around-world-almost-300m-15-24-year-olds-are-not-working-what-has-caused





The middle class is expected to grow almost exclusively in the «Global East», and consumer markets will accordingly shift further eastwards8

Source: Human Development Report 2013 http://www.agweb.com/blog/ecopragmatism/

http://www.agweb.com/blog/ecopragmatism/

http://www.agweb.com/blog/ecopragmatism/


Conflict, poverty and exclusion are the root causes of flight; the growing phenomenon of environmental refugees is alarming

9

http://www.internal-displacement.org/




Migration within the Global South is more significant than North-South migration

10

http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/development/perspectives-on-global-development-2012_persp_glob_dev-2012-en#page80

Source: OECD 2012, Perspectives on global development




Migrants’ remittances have become a substantial economic factor far more important than official development aid

11

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/MigrationandDevelopmentBrief18.pdf

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/09/Chami.htm






“We can either have democracy in this country or we can have great wealth concentrated in the

hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”Louis Brandeis

Economic justiceThe arithmetic of “Inclusive Growth” does not add up

Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up

Since the turn of millennium the absolute number of people living in absolute poverty (< 1.25$ a day) has decreased significantly…1

http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/State_of_the_poor_paper_April17.pdf




… though almost exclusively in China 2

http://filipspagnoli.wordpress.com/stats-on-human-rights/statistics-on-poverty/statistics-on-poverty-and-absolute-income-levels/




… but the share of population living below national poverty lines is still high in a large number of countries

3

http://cesr.org/article.php?id=918




Extreme poverty is rife mainly in rural areas, with the exception of Latin America

4

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/09/ravalli.htm




In the 19th century, class status primarily explained inequality among people, today it is place of birth

5

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Special-Feature/Detail/?id=172351&contextid774=172351&contextid775=172467



Economic justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up

Less than 100 of the planet’s richest own the equivalent of the poor half of the world’s population

6

http://www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/52e8d19751750.pdf




In the past 20 years, the super-rich have become disproportionately richer in most countries and regions …7


OECD 2012, Perspectives on global development p. 105




… and this is particularly true for the «growth and poverty miracle» China

8





The Gini index by world regions shows that: accelerated growth leads to rising inequalities9

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/res1010a.htm




Economic productivity has grown considerably, but not wages, as demonstrated by the case of the US …

10

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2013/03/wage-and-productivity-effects-of-internet-trolling-by-matt-yglesias/




… which explains, why a large share of the US populationdoes not belong to the “winners of economic growth”

11

http://www.decisionsonevidence.com/2011/08/introduction-rising-inequality-in-america/



“No one denies that our problems would be easier to solve if we were richer.

The question is, does growth any longer make us richer, or is it now making us poorer?”

Herman Daly

Resource JusticeGrowth and economic development are scarce goods

Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods

The «great acceleration»: Since the Second World WarWorld GDP has almost exploded1

http://www.gallus-group.com/pt/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-367/533_read-1474/





This explosion in growth was only made possible by massive exploitation of natural resources …2

http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdf


… leading to a shortage of resources in real termsat the expense of future generations

3

http://ingienous.com/?page_id=6983


http://www.materialflows.net/fileadmin/docs/materialflows.net/matflow_FS4_web.pdf/


Technological progress was not able to prevent increasing scarcity of resources (rebound effect) – ‘growth without resources’ is a myth

4




http://www.materialflows.net/trends/analyses-1980-2008/global-resource-extraction-2005-2030/


If the present trend continues, the exploitation of resources will double within just one generation…

5

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/newsletter/det/human_demand_outstripping_natures_regenerative_capacity_at_an_alarming_rate


… although we are now already consuming the resources of one and a half worlds

6




http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_nations/


Between the world regions, there are substantial differences in per-capita consumption and per-capita availability of resources

7

Region/Country

Footprint pc ,2007

Biocapacity pc, 2007

Balance

Africa 1.4 1.5 +0.1

Asia 1.8 0.8 -1.0

China 2.2 1.0 -1,2

Europe 4.7 2.9 -1.8

Switzerland 5.0 1.2 -3.8

Latin America 2.6 5.5 +2.9

North America 7.9 4.9 -3.0

USA 8.0 3.9 -4.1

Oceania 5.4 11.1 +5.8


Notably in the poorest countries, decreasing biocapacities lead to conflicts over resources such as water or land

8

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n7/full/nclimate1236.html

A map of previous conflicts (1980-2005) attributed to environmental issues, their sizes and causes



http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/print/volume-26/issue-2/regional-spotlight-europe/how-sustainable-is-europe-s-water-footprint.html


Increasing globalisation of trade is further aggravating water scarcity in the Global South (problem of virtual water)

9



http://blogs.worldwatch.org/nourishingtheplanet/tag/fao/page/2/


One result of resource scarcity: The world market prices for food have been massively on the rebound since the global crisis …10

http://dgff.unctad.org/chapter4/4.2.html




http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/land-grabs-update-more-hectares-than-we-thought-and-definitely-bad-for-development/


… the appetite of the global speculation business for arable land in the southern hemisphere is constantly growing

11



“We are running this planetlike a business in liquidation”

Herman E. Daly

Climate JusticeThe widening gap between cause and effect

Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect

3 out of 9 ‘planetary boundaries’ have been crossed, including climate change, the biggest challenge facing the world today1

http://www.unesco.org/new/wsd2012

Source: modified from Rockström et al. (2009). Researchers recently identified nine planetary boundaries, which collectively delineate a safe operating space for humanity. Three have already been crossed. This concept has the potential to develop into a useful tool for policymakers.




Global warming is already a reality today, and if no measures are taken, temperatures will rise sharply by end of this century …2





… with unforeseeable consequences for the world’s ecosystems and human life

3

http://www.challengetochange.org/climate.htm




Limiting global temperature increase is a matter of survival – political leaders and societies are called upon to act immediately

4





The vulnerability to climate change is most pronounced in regions where people live in poverty …

5




… and these are not the regionswhere greenhouse gas emissions mostly occur

6

http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?tag=co2

Carbon Emission 2009




Energy production and consumption is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, so too are some types of land use

7

http://greenblog.typepad.com/d41e/global/ http://www.energyland.emsd.gov.hk/en/energy/environment/greenhouse.html

Share of GHGs Emissions per type of GHG2004

Share of GHGs Emissions per sector2004

http://greenblog.typepad.com/d41e/global/

http://greenblog.typepad.com/d41e/global/

http://www.energyland.emsd.gov.hk/en/energy/environment/greenhouse.html

http://www.energyland.emsd.gov.hk/en/energy/environment/greenhouse.html


While sustainable farming and forestry are global tasks, the impetus for an energy turnaround must come from the global North

8





The costs of transforming energy systems and mitigating climate change effects are enormous - a multiple of development aid …

9

http://www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/520a3b1cea2d4.pdf




… nevertheless, transformative development towards an economy of life is no utopia …

10

http://oliveventures.com.sg/act/2011/02/16/paradigm-shiftour-human-money-economy-is-a-subset-of-the-earths-larger-bioeconomy

/

http://oliveventures.com.sg/act/2011/02/16/paradigm-shiftour-human-money-economy-is-a-subset-of-the-earths-larger-bioeconomy/




… because welfare and development do not necessarily require an increasing ecological footprint per capita

11

http://studentreporter.org/2013/10/ecological-footprint-thinking-inside-the-green-box/



Global GovernanceWhat the global community is doing

“If you focus on results you will never changeif you focus on change you will get results”

Jack Dixon

Global Governance: What the global community is doing

The history of global development initiatives is relatively young- it really got under way with the Earth Summit of 1992 …1

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES IN THE 1980s

1986

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES TODAY


… previously, the power of definition was in the hands of the World Bank and IMF, today there is a multitude of players in global agenda

setting2

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT PLAYERS IN THE 1980s

Washington-Consensus

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT PLAYERS TODAY


Under the aegis of the UN and OECD, four key international initiatives have been launched in the past two decades3

EARTH SUMMITSWhat development

paradigm?

HIGH-LEVEL FORUMSWhat partnership for development?

SOCIAL SUMMITSHow to fight

poverty?

DIALOGUE ON PEACE AND STATEBUILDING

How to addressfragility?


The Rio Earth Summit resulted in a series of international agreements and conventions aimed at promoting a sustainable world4

Agenda 21 http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/Agenda21.pdf

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)(Kyoto Protocol 2005) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf

https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php

UN Forest Principles http://www.un.org/documents/ga/conf151/aconf15126-3annex3.htm

Convention on Biological Diversity http://www.cbd.int/convention/

Rio Declaration http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?documentid=78&articleid=1163

http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/Agenda21.pdf

http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/Agenda21.pdf

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf



http://www.un.org/documents/ga/conf151/aconf15126-3annex3.htm

http://www.un.org/documents/ga/conf151/aconf15126-3annex3.htm

http://www.cbd.int/convention/

http://www.cbd.int/convention/

http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?documentid=78&articleid=1163

http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?documentid=78&articleid=1163


The breakthrough came with the turn of the millennium: For the firsttime, the global community adopted 8 common development goals5

http://www.unfoundation.org/blog/coming-together.html




The 8 development goals have only been partially met, the least progress has been achieved in countries affected by conflict and

fragility

6

http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/0,,contentMDK:23109716~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html




As part of a global consultation, the global community is currently reflecting on a new development agenda beyond 2015 … 7

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/education-plus-development/posts/2013/02/15-post-2015-development-agenda-anderson




.. based on the idea of agreeing on a series of ‘sustainable development

goals’ that are valid for all countries including the Global North

8

+ =


Mandated by the United Nations, a group of «eminent persons» has recently presented initial recommendations and proposals9

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/high-level-panel-post-2015-malaria-consortium http://www.lattitude.org.uk/2013/10/beyon

d-2015-leaving-no-one-behind/

http://www.lattitude.org.uk/2013/10/beyond-2015-leaving-no-one-behind/




Market-driven environment protection policies have failed, inter alia, because of a considerable fall in emissions trading prices …10

http://energydemocracyinitiative.org/emissions-up-carbon-prices-down-what-does-it-mean-for-unions/




… which makes it all the more important that the sustainable development goals will replace or revitalize the stalled Kyoto

negotiations

11

http://www.rtcc.org/2012/12/10/weak-doha-deal-leaves-world-on-pathway-to-3c-by-2040/

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