Responding to Climate Change: Constraints and Adaptive Capacity

Alan ForemanESP Seminar

4.6.10

Current Adaptive Measures

• What is an ‘adaptation’?– Altering ‘decision environments’– Physical changes– Policy changes

• Reactive vs anticipatory

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Assessing Adaptations

• Temporal perspective: – Current variability– Observed trends in past climate– Anticipatory modeling

• Other perspectives

Current Adaptations - Interannual variability

• ENSO– Improved forecasting and information

dissemination • Problems:

– Spatial uncertainties in forecasts

– Low awareness/coordination

– Social drivers

Current Adaptations - Observed Past Trends

• Developing vs non-developing contexts

– OECD countries

– Developing countriesQuickTime™ and a

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Adapting for the Future• Usually adaptations for future events are triggered

by current extreme events– Heat waves– Implicit recognition of problems for public health

• Long lived infrastructure:– Developed countries– Sea level rise

• Policy:– Impact assessments– Water management plans

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Costs

• Difficulties in measuring cost/benefit– Costs can be quantified in monetary terms– Benefits are in terms of avoided climatic

impacts

Adaptive Capacity

• General trends vs specific adaptations– Inter- and intra- regional variations

– Specific solutions

– Limitations• Diversity of impacts, options, and complexity of

adaptation processes• Errors in studies from assuming perfect adaptation

Estimating Adaptive Capacity

• Economic development

• Technology

• Governance structures

• Social values, perceptions and customs

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Adaptive Capacity in Developing Nations

• Often context-specific

• Heterogenous within a locality– Age, class, gender, social status

• Temporal fluctuations– Current adaptive capacities can be altered by

policy directives, social trends, or violent conflict

Limits to Adaptation

• Technological– Social context and decision making

– Technologically feasible vs. achievable

• Financial– Local communities

Informational Barriers

• Knowledge does not always lead to implementation

• Perceptions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity differ

• Perceptions of risk differ– Not a ‘here-and-now’ problem

• Local social institutions

Conclusions

• Adaptation is being undertaken in both developed and developing countries– Usually a response to already evident

climate change • Capacity for adaptation is dependent on

more than simple economic barriers • Emphasis on local understanding

Questions

• How much can we depend on predictions of adaptive capacity?

• Is there an optimal course of action for adapting to climate change in developing countries, given the financial barriers that they may face?

• Can a solely response-based adaptation policy be avoided?