Socio-Economic Opportunities in Technological Change:
Collaborative Community Resilience
Linton Wells [email protected], 202 436.6354, Skype: linwells
IRAHSS 2017July 18, 2017
COLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
Summary
• 4th Industrial Revolution• Velocity of Tech Change• 7 Disruptive Techs “That Could be Worth Trillions”• Threat of Job Loss to AI and Automation
• Collaborative Community Resilience (COLCORE)• COLCORE Components
• STAR-TIDES• Status• Partnering Opportunities• Integrated Resilience and Risk Management• Research Needs
7/18/2017 v4Lin Wells, [email protected],
+1.202.436.63542
Four Industrial Revolutions
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• 1st ~1780s:
• 2nd ~1870:
• 3rd ~1969:
• 4th just beginning: fuse technologies “blur lines between physical, digital and biological spheres”
Source: Klaus Schwab, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond,” 14 January 2016 http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/, accessed February 16, 2016
Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
4th Industrial Revolution (4th IR)• Key distinctions between 3rd & 4th revolutions:
– Velocity of change, scope, and systems-wide impact• Massively disruptive, and accelerating • Transforming management, as well as production and
distribution • Can provide very important collective benefits to
society, but also negatively affect many individuals– Loss of jobs and pace of social change –Machine learning and artificial intelligence
• Responses must engage public-private, whole-of-society, and trans-national stakeholders – In comprehensive, integrated ways
7/18/2017 v4 4Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
Velocity of Tech Change If a factor, e.g. computing power/unit cost, doubles every 18 mo, 5 yr
increase is 900%, 10 yr 10,000%, 15 yr ~100,000%
– Biotech even faster, robotics ubiquitous, nano poised breakout, energy impacts are global
• - Think BRINE (bio-robo-info-nano-energy) + Additive ManufacturingInteractions complicate thingsLinear projections CAN’T work
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Growth in Computing Power per Unit Cost
Capability doubles every 18 months Capability doubles every 24 months
Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
These 7 Disruptive Technologies “Could Be Worth Trillions of Dollars”*
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• Deep Learning -- $17T in tech, health, finance, xport, etc.
• Mobility Services -- $10T by 2030, 20% to vehicle makers
• 3D Printing of Finished Products at Scale -- $41B+ by 2025
• CRISPR and Related Tech -- Not on investors’ radar yet
• Mobile Transactions – Up 15x to $15T by 2020. Asia leads
• Robotics and Automation -- $12T increase in US by 2035
• Blockchain and Cryptoassets -- 60+% expect >$1T in 10 yrs
* Projections by ARC From SingularityHub, June 16, 2017
4th IR Job-Related Security Issues (1)
• 4th IR can raise global incomes and improve quality of lives– More unequal and disrupted labor markets
– Loss of jobs, “low-skill/low-pay” and “high-skill/high pay” groups
– Societal inequalities and social tensions
• Service jobs particularly vulnerable to automation– Services are some 80% of developed world
employment, growing role in developing economies
– McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) 2017 study:• less than 5 percent of all occupations can be automated entirely
• “about 60% of all occupations have at least 30% of constituent activities that could be automated.” [with present tech]
7/18/2017 v4 7Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
Job-Related Security Implications (2)
• Impacts likely to be more severe in youth bulge areas – Parts of Islamic world, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa,
plus megacities and under-served parts of developed world
– Pressures for migration & radicalization if NO entry level jobs• Hence no stake in international system
• Many types of security problems: – Impact of a million refugees on Europe in 2015
– Many times more likely in future
– High potential for domestic unrest, scapegoat-
finding, radical nationalism and protectionism• Unless governments and the private sector “are really
skillful in managing these changes” -- track record not encouraging
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The Economist has been especially good in reporting on these topics
Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
Job-Related Security Implications (3)
4th IR challenges are beyond focus of many government efforts
– Could have exceptional prosperity (“Abundance”)
– But there are potential threats to existing security structures
• Political, social, economic & technological issues threaten true center of gravity of future conflicts: resilience of populations of engaged nations
• Can challenge social compacts
– How to shape a more optimistic future?
7/18/2017 v4 9Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
• Consider ways that build Community Resilience against diverse threats• Natural, man-made, and economic
• Using collaborative (peering/sharing) approaches• Leveraging emerging technologies
• Nation State often too big, family too small• Build on common community values of
dignity, justice and fairness
Proposal
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Collaborative Community
Resilience*
Promote Capable Communities that are:
Productive,Resilient to Emerging Challenges
andSustainable by Local Resources
COLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
Reduce Pressures for Migration, Radicalization and
Marginalization* Previously called BROCADE (Building Resilient Opportunities in Culturally Aligned, Diverse Environments) 11
How Can COLCORE Help?
Shift Focus from Threat to Opportunity
Make it possible for those who want to stay to do so
Leverage Robin Chase's "Peers, Inc." construct to build community-based approaches:
• "Inc." represents industrial-strength "platforms" (like internet)• "Peers" (individuals ) can use platforms to innovate
• Airbnb reached 650,00 beds in 4 years with 2 “platforms”• Internet and rooms
• Uber also uses 2 “platforms”• Internet and cars
Many more platforms can be leveraged
COLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
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Potential Platform GroupsAligned with Multiple International Standards
7/18/2017 v4Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
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Shelter, Heating/Cooling, Lighting• Low Cost, Culturally Aligned Shelters, GIE Housing & Infrastructure
Water, Sanitation, Hygiene (WASH)• Aligns with UN & GIE WASH categories
Agriculture, Food Security• High efficiency urban agriculture, UN OCHA food security, DHS food & agriculture
sectors, SDG goal 2, KSS risk analysis & mitigation strategy for global food, water, energy
Information & Communications Technology (ICT)• Ubiquitous connectivity, UN Emergency Telecoms Cluster, Hastily Formed Networks, DHS
IT & Comms, innovative learning, Conversational User Interfaces (CUI), cybersecurity
Energy, Energy Storage• Aligns with SDG goal 7, UN OCHA clusters
Health, Nutrition, Integrated Cooking• STAR-TIDES Life Support & Integrated Cooking, Telemedicine, SDG Goal 3
STAR-TIDES
is a Global Knowledge-Sharing Research Project that Complements Collaborative Community Resilience
• Leverage Global Talent – Share knowledge through www.star-tides.net network
• Promote Integrated Approaches -- Integrate several "platforms" to meet local needs
• Support Local Societies -- Listen to local populations• Seek solutions that they can sustain
• Change Behaviors – Recognize that no lesson is really learned until behavior changes, so • Train, exercise, educate and incentivize to cause
people to do things differently
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Two STAR-TIDES elements are key to COLCORE
1. Global network (www.star-tides.net): several thousand nodes worldwide: public-private, whole-of-government, trans-national
2. Integration of diverse technologies
STAR-TIDES looks at cross-cutting approaches across six infrastructures, plus cross-cutting elements such as Narratives, Systems Thinking, Logistics, etc.
Network members can help integrate multiple infrastructures (“platforms”) to support COLCOREcommunities –unique capability
COLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
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The goal is to “Make hope possible,
rather than despair convincing”—
Raymond Wilson
Governance and institution-building will be key Must understand what dignity, justice and fairness
mean in whatever culture is at the center of a particular project—technical solutions alone
are never enough
Promote human security: “freedom from want” and “freedom from fear”
COLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
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Integrated COLCORE & STAR-TIDES Overview
Political (Governance) Economic (Development)
Social (Resilience)
Technological (Platforms)
Cross-Cutting Elements: Narrative; Systems Thinking; Shared Knowledge; Logistics; Digital Enabling Technology 7/18/2017 v4 17
COLCORE & STAR-TIDES Politico-Socio-Economic Areas
Political EconomicSocial
Community Governance
Coordinate and Manage
Build Institutions
Design Plan
Budget and Execute
Provide Security,Protection
Provide Services
Communicate
Cross-Cutting Elements: Narrative (for all stakeholders); Systems Thinking; Shared Knowledge (lessons truly learned); Logistics (right things, right place, right time); Digital Enabling Tech
(sensors, data and analytics, GIS, identity management, blockchain, easy-to-use interfaces, etc.)
Community DevelopmentCommunity Resilience
Collaborative Economic Opportunities
Local Production
Public-Private Cooperation
Critical Infrastructures
Financing
Community Values
Risk Management
“Anti-Fragile” Structures
Education
“Be Prepared to Bounce Forward Better”
Sectors such as Youth, Gender, Democracy, and Human Rightsfall within community focus of individual COLCORE projects.
Climate Change affects nearly all areas.
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• COLCORE and STAR-TIDES transitioning to George Mason University (GMU) near DC: teaching, research, outreach
• Workshops held since Oct 2016
• Added focus on Appalachia in partnership with Shepherd U
• Tom Friedman was keynote speaker in Feb 2017
• Have looked at project sites in MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia, plus others in U.S.
• Key in all cases is local support and leadership
• 11th Tech demo will be Sept 12-14 at GMU, 18-20 Sep at Pentagon Please attend!
StatusCOLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
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Partnering Opportunities
• STAR-TIDES and COLCORE may be in a new GMU Center of Excellence in Community Resilience—partners welcome
• Address core ideas and important security concepts
• Diversity, Diplomacy, Development, Defense and Resilience• Wide range of talent• Platforms could attract at least 10 academic components
• Engineering (several parts), Science, GIS, Public Policy, Conflict Analysis, School of Business, Health & Human Svcs, Education, Cybersecurity
• Promote: multi-disciplinary research projects, student & faculty interest, future courses
• Could attract funding
COLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
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Integrated Resilience and Risk Management
• STAR-TIDES and COLCORE approaches share much with risk appraisal and management methods to:
• Enhance cybersecurity• Contribute to military “mission assurance”• Reduce cascading casualties across infrastructures• Deal with interdependencies in “Smart Cities”• Provide insurance and re-insurance
• A future “Integrated Resilience and Risk Management” approach could bridge gaps among public (civil and military), private, academic and IO/NGO environments to support effective resilience-building strategies
COLLABORATIVECOMMUNITY RESILIENCE
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Research Needs• Research opportunities in many areas
– Decision-Making, Engineering, Science, Conflict Analysis and Resolution, Public Policy, also Business & Education
– Focus at Policy-Technology-Sociology-Economy interface
• Promote change in how Organizations, People, Processes and Technology come together– Link security and sustainability goals, public-private,
trans-national mechanisms & regional cooperation
• Identify communities for pilot projects– Develop best practices, but recognize some may fail
– Learn how to SCALE rapidly
• Tie pieces together. Who will lead?7/18/2017 v4 22Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
Questions for Young People
• Networked minds
• What else?
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What technologies will your children use to befuddle you the way you befuddle you parents? Perhaps:
• Cyborgization of the human body
• Trans-generational perception differences
• Genome modification
Lin Wells, [email protected], +1.202.436.6354
