SYSTEMS IDEAS FOR SYSTEMS IDEAS FOR SCIENTIFIC & SOCIETAL SCIENTIFIC & SOCIETAL
IMPERATIVES IN THE IMPERATIVES IN THE COASTAL OCEAN:COASTAL OCEAN:GULF OF MEXICO GULF OF MEXICO
EXAMPLE, INCLUDING BP EXAMPLE, INCLUDING BP OIL SPILLOIL SPILL
RES.PROF. CHRIS MOOERS, RES.PROF. CHRIS MOOERS, CEE/CECS/PSUCEE/CECS/PSU
{A PHYSICAL {A PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHER}OCEANOGRAPHER}
ATTRIBUTES OF OCEAN ATTRIBUTES OF OCEAN PREDICTIONS (I.E., PREDICTIONS (I.E.,
SIMULATIONS, SIMULATIONS, HINDCASTS, NOWCASTS, HINDCASTS, NOWCASTS,
& FORECASTS)& FORECASTS)
*TARGET:4D “OCEAN *TARGET:4D “OCEAN WEATHER”WEATHER”
*CONSTRAINED BY *CONSTRAINED BY OBSERVATIONS & PHYSICSOBSERVATIONS & PHYSICS
*COUPLED PDEs*COUPLED PDEs
*FORCED & FREE DYNAMICS*FORCED & FREE DYNAMICS
*SUPPORTS ECOLOGICAL *SUPPORTS ECOLOGICAL PREDICTIONPREDICTION
INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
• INFORMATION SYSTEMS ARE NEEDED INFORMATION SYSTEMS ARE NEEDED FOR OCEAN STATE ESTIMATION FOR OCEAN STATE ESTIMATION (HISTORIC, SYNOPTIC, & FORECAST)(HISTORIC, SYNOPTIC, & FORECAST)
• COMPONENTS: OBSERVING COMPONENTS: OBSERVING SUBSYSTEMS, MODELING SUBSYSTEMS, SUBSYSTEMS, MODELING SUBSYSTEMS, AND DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEMSAND DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEMS
• PRESENT STATUS: EMBRYONIC, AD HOC, PRESENT STATUS: EMBRYONIC, AD HOC, & CHAOTIC WITHOUT SYSTEM DESIGN = & CHAOTIC WITHOUT SYSTEM DESIGN = STALLEDSTALLED
Final forecast product…Final forecast product…
• In the past, trajectory In the past, trajectory forecasts provided ony forecasts provided ony to the SSC who briefs to the SSC who briefs the FOSCthe FOSC
• Forecasts were Forecasts were distributed widely and in distributed widely and in a number of formats a number of formats (e.g. GIS shapefiles) to a (e.g. GIS shapefiles) to a much broader audience much broader audience than in previous than in previous incidentsincidents
• Effective communication Effective communication of results remains a key of results remains a key challengechallenge
IASNFSIASNFS
Intra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemsIntra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast Systems
Dong S. KoDong S. Ko
Naval Research LaboratoryNaval Research Laboratory
NRL Intra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemNRL Intra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemIASNFSIASNFS
GridGridTopographyTopography from NRL DBDB2from NRL DBDB2
• Longitude : 98 W – 55Longitude : 98 W – 55 W; Latitude : 5 N – 31 NW; Latitude : 5 N – 31 N• Horizontal Resolution : 1/24 Degree (~ 6 km)Horizontal Resolution : 1/24 Degree (~ 6 km)• Vertical Resolution : 40 Layers (19 Layers on the shelf)Vertical Resolution : 40 Layers (19 Layers on the shelf)• Forced with NOGAPS Wind, Air Pressure and Heat Fluxes (Solar Radiation)Forced with NOGAPS Wind, Air Pressure and Heat Fluxes (Solar Radiation)• Coupled to NRL Global NCOMCoupled to NRL Global NCOM• Assimilation of Satellite Altimetry and MODIS SST/SSSAssimilation of Satellite Altimetry and MODIS SST/SSS• 140 River Discharges140 River Discharges
Ko, D.S., R.H. Preller, and P.J. Martin, An Experimental Real-Time Intra Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Ko, D.S., R.H. Preller, and P.J. Martin, An Experimental Real-Time Intra Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for CoastalCoastal Prediction, Proceedings, AMS 5th Conference on Coastal Atmospheric & Oceanic Prediction & Processes, 97-100, 2003.Prediction, Proceedings, AMS 5th Conference on Coastal Atmospheric & Oceanic Prediction & Processes, 97-100, 2003.
NRL Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemNRL Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System
Ko, D.S., P.J. Martin, C.D. Rowley, and R.H. Preller, A real-time coastal ocean prediction experiment Ko, D.S., P.J. Martin, C.D. Rowley, and R.H. Preller, A real-time coastal ocean prediction experiment for MREA04, for MREA04, J. Marine SystemsJ. Marine Systems, 69, 17-28, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.02.022, 2008., 69, 17-28, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.02.022, 2008.
Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/ForecastReal-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast
3D Temperature3D TemperatureSalinity AnalysesSalinity Analyses
Surface ForcingSurface ForcingBC RiverBC River
InitializatioInitializationn-72 Hours-72 Hours
HindcasHindcastt
NowcastNowcast0 Hour0 Hour
ForecastForecast+72 Hours+72 Hours
IASNFS Real-Time PredictionIASNFS Real-Time Prediction
Sea Surface ElevationSea Surface Elevation
http://www7320.nrlssc.mil/IASNFS_WWW/http://www7320.nrlssc.mil/IASNFS_WWW/
Loop Current/Eddy frontal locationLoop Current/Eddy frontal locationbased on satellite thermo imagebased on satellite thermo image
IASNFS Real-Time PredictionIASNFS Real-Time Prediction
Sea Surface Salinity/CurrentSea Surface Salinity/Current
IASNFS Real-Time PredictionIASNFS Real-Time Prediction
Sea Surface SalinitySea Surface Salinityfor NOAA/AOML Ocean Acidification Estimationfor NOAA/AOML Ocean Acidification Estimation
EPA General Environment Model for HypoxiaEPA General Environment Model for Hypoxia
Peter M. Eldridge and Daniel L. RoelkePeter M. Eldridge and Daniel L. Roelke
IASNFS/Hypoxia ModelIASNFS/Hypoxia Model
Simulation of Phytoplankton DynamicsSimulation of Phytoplankton Dynamics
SUMMARYSUMMARY
*OCEAN PREDICTION HAS A *OCEAN PREDICTION HAS A BRIGHT FUTUREBRIGHT FUTURE
*ITS PRESENTLY IN *ITS PRESENTLY IN TRANSITION BETWEEN R&D TRANSITION BETWEEN R&D
AND “ROUTINE OPERATIONS”AND “ROUTINE OPERATIONS”
*IT SUPPORTS BASIC *IT SUPPORTS BASIC RESEARCH & SOCIETAL RESEARCH & SOCIETAL
APPLICATIONSAPPLICATIONS
CONCLUSION: THE WAY CONCLUSION: THE WAY AHEADAHEAD
• SYSTEM TESTBEDS FOR R&D (EVALUATE, SYSTEM TESTBEDS FOR R&D (EVALUATE, INTEGRATE, SUSTAINED BUT FLEXIBLE)INTEGRATE, SUSTAINED BUT FLEXIBLE)
• SYSTEMS ENGINEERING WITH SYSTEMS ENGINEERING WITH STAKEHOLDER GROUPS STAKEHOLDER GROUPS (OPERATIONS:REQUIREMENTS, METRICS, (OPERATIONS:REQUIREMENTS, METRICS, COST-BENEFITS, DESIGN, ETC.)COST-BENEFITS, DESIGN, ETC.)
• SYSTEMS SCIENCE WITH INTERFACES SYSTEMS SCIENCE WITH INTERFACES BETWEEN NATURAL SCIENCE & SOCIETY BETWEEN NATURAL SCIENCE & SOCIETY (SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS, STABILITY, (SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS, STABILITY, SUSTAINABILITY)SUSTAINABILITY)