Restaurant Industry Commentary
Restaurant Monthly December 2013
15.5x
24.6x
10.6x 10.6x 10.2x 14.3x
23.6x
10.5x 10.0x 10.1x
—
6.0x
12.0x
18.0x
24.0x
30.0x
Premium Dining Casual Dining Family Dining Fast Casual QSR Quick Service Fast Casual Family Dining Casual Dining Premium Dining
Public Market Performance (Latest Twelve Months)
Indices consist of all publicly-available information for restaurant operators in their respective price points. For full listing, please contact the TM Capital Restaurant Practice.
Recent Restaurant M&A Activity
12.3x 13.8x
8.5x 8.9x 7.8x
13.3x 13.3x
8.0x 9.1x 7.4x
—
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x 12.3x 13.8x
8.5x 8.9x 7.8x
13.3x 13.3x
8.0x 9.1x 7.4x
—
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
Median TEV / LTM EBITDA Median TEV / 2013 EBITDA
Current Restaurant Valuations by Price Point (TEV / EBITDA)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Segm
ent
Inde
x
S&P 500 QSR Fast Casual Family Dining Casual Dining Premium Dining
149
126
136 140
141 142
($ in millions)Closed /
Announced Target AcquirorEnterprise
ValueEBITDA / Value
MultipleIndustry Segment
1/16/2014A CEC Entertainment (Chuck E Cheese) Apollo Global Management $1,295.5 $170.46 7.6x Family12/5/2013A Dallas Spoon Chanticleer Holdings NA NA / NA Premium
11/21/2013A The Wendy's Company, 38 Wendy's Locations Richard Holland NA NA / NA QSR01/09/2014 PJ United TPG Growth NA NA / NA QSR01/06/2014 Lonestar Steakhouse & Saloon Day Star Restaurant Group NA NA / NA Casual12/27/2013 The Wendy's Company, 30 Wendy's Locations HAZA Foods, LLC NA NA / NA QSR12/26/2013 CKE Restaurants Inc. Roark Capital Group $1,700.0 NA / NA QSR12/18/2013 The Bailey Company (47 Arby's restaurants) Unied States Beef Corporation NA NA / NA QSR12/18/2013 10 Subway Sandwich Shops Rottinghaus Company, Inc. NA NA / NA QSR12/16/2013 Mad Greens Corporation AC Restaurant Group NA NA / NA Fast Casual12/09/2013 The Wendy's Company, 54 Wendy's Locations NPC International $31.3 NA / NA QSR12/02/2013 Captain D's Centre Partners NA NA / NA QSR10/23/2013 The ONE Group Committed Capital Acquisition Corp. (OTCPK:STKS) NA NA / NA Premium10/07/2013 The Wendy's Company, 24 Wendy's Locations Cedar Enterprises $12.5 NA / NA QSR
Following three months of consecutive growth, December delivered relatively soft performance for restaurants. Same store sales dropped 2.0% in the last month of the year, due in large part to a 4.5% decline in comparable restaurant traffic, according to Blackbox Intelligence. While these results are modestly discouraging, many operators remain bullish on calendar year 2014, attributing December’s poor performance to inclement weather across the country and a late Thanksgiving’s truncation of the shopping season. December and the first half of January have marked perhaps the most active two-month stretch in recent memory from an M&A perspective. Of particular note, Apollo Global acquired CEC Entertainment (Chuck E’ Cheese) at an enterprise value of $1.3 billion, or 7.6x trailing twelve months EBITDA. The QSR space, however, has continued to outshine more premium categories. Roark Capital’s $1.7 billion purchase of CKE restaurants, TPG Growth’s acquisition of Halifax portfolio company PJ United and United States Beef Corporation’s add-on acquisition of The Bailey Company headlined this activity. Public trading performance continues to demonstrate strength, with the Fast Casual segment particularly delivering outsized valuations.
($ in millions)
New York641 Lexington Avenue30th FloorNew York, NY 10022Tel: 212.809.1360
Boston200 Clarendon Street25th FloorBoston, MA 02116Tel: 617.259.2200
Atlanta15 Piedmont Center NE Suite 1010Atlanta, GA 30305 Tel: 404.995.6230
www.tmcapital.com
About TM Capital
TM Capital’s Restaurant Practice
TM Capital Corp. is a partner-owned investment banking firm based in New York, Boston and Atlanta, which has completed over 250 transactions with a combined value in excess of $14 billion. Since 1989,
we have advised clients navigating a full range of critical transactions, including complex mergers, acquisitions, debt and equity financings, minority and majority recapitalizations, restructurings, and advisory
services including takeover defense, fairness and solvency opinions, valuations, as well as litigation support. We have built deep industry expertise in key sectors and our team regularly publishes research
highlighting current and emerging trends in targeted industries and markets. TM Capital is a member firm of M&A International Inc., the world’s leading alliance of mid-market investment banks with over
600 M&A professionals in 41 countries. Members have closed over 1,300 transactions totaling more than $75 billion in value over the past five years. For more information, visit www.tmcapital.com.
Michael P. Locker Managing Director
[email protected] 404-995-6252
James S. Grien President and CEO
[email protected] 404-995-6235
Philip S. Krieger Vice President
[email protected] 404-995-6242
Recent TM Capital Restaurant Experience
Same Store Sales by Price Point
(12.5%)
(10.0%)
(7.5%)
(5.0%)
(2.5%)
―
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Sam
e St
ore
Sale
s G
row
th
QSR Fast Casual Family Dining Casual Dining Premium Dining2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sam
e St
ore
Sale
s G
row
th
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) ― 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Q2 '07Q3 '07Q4 '07Q1 '08Q2 '08Q3 '08Q4 '08Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) ― 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Q2 '07Q3 '07Q4 '07Q1 '08Q2 '08Q3 '08Q4 '08Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) ― 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Q2 '07Q3 '07Q4 '07Q1 '08Q2 '08Q3 '08Q4 '08Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) ― 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Q2 '07Q3 '07Q4 '07Q1 '08Q2 '08Q3 '08Q4 '08Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13
Qui
ck S
ervi
ceCa
sual
Din
ing
Prem
ium
Din
ing
Quarterly Gainers & Losers by Price Point
Fam
ily D
inin
gFa
st C
asua
l
Decliners / Gainers
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%) ― 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Q2 '07Q3 '07Q4 '07Q1 '08Q2 '08Q3 '08Q4 '08Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12Q1 '13Q2 '13Q3 '13