Results Compiled

7/28/2019 Results Compiled

1/41

Variable type Variable name Description

Project location

Classifies the projects based on

geographcal location

Project city tier

Classifies the projects based on

the Tier of the city in which the

project is located

Project city - metro status

Classifies the projects in two

categories - those in metros and

those in non-metros

Project built up area

Measures the total built up area

of the projetct

Project end use type

Classifies projects based on the

type of development viz.

townships, apartments etc.

Project segment

Classifies residential projects

based on amenities, pricing and

other facilities

Investment mode

Classifies private equity

investment into two categories

depending on the mode of

investing

Investor origin

Classifies the investor into two

categories depending on their

origin

Investor fund type

Classifies the investor into two

categories depending on the fund

type

Net investment

Measures the net amount of

money invested by the private

equity investor

Project characteristics

Investment and Investor

characteristics


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Developer characteristics Years of experience

Measures the expertize level of

the developer based on the

number of years it has spent in

the real estate industry

Corruption index

Measures the level of corruption

in the city

City competitiveness score

Measures the competitiveness

score of cities based on Porter

criteria

Purchasing

Other characteristics


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Type Hypothesis

Dummy variable. Takes values 1 through 5

for the five regions - North, East, West,

South, Central respectively

The location preferences may

or may not exist, depending

on the type of promoter and

investor


for three types of cities - Tier -1, 2 and 3

Dummy variable. Takes values 1 or 0

depending on whether the project city is a

metro or not

Continuous variable measured in square

meters


depending on the type of end use


depending on the project segment - Luxury,

Mid-segment and low-budget

Dummy variable. Takes values 1 or O

depending on whether the mode of

investment is project or entity


depending on whether the investor is of

foreign origin or domestic


depending on whether the fund is dedicated

or general purposeContinuous variable measured in US $

million. All values are adjusted for the 2012

as the base year.


4/41

Continuous variable measured years

Continuous variable based on the index

scores developed as a part of corruption

perception index

Continuous variable based on the index

scores developed in India competitiveness

report 2012


5/41

Feature Domestic Foreign

Mean investment (US $ M) - investment mode

Project mode 47.3 84

Med 25 50

Count 141 65

Entity mode 38 110

Med 25 74

Count 40 47

Mean investment (US $ M) - Geographical location

North 40.1 64.9

Med 32.7 32

Count 35 17

East 18.1 110.7

Med 17.6 110.7

Count 4 1

West 60.4 88.7

Med 25.3 35.4

Count 49 21

South 43.5 80.0

Med 22.7 51.2

Count 47 23

Central 14.7

Med 14.7 Count 2

Mean investment (US $ M) - Tier of city

Tier - 1 43.2 80.2

Med 25 44

Count 93 40

Tier - 2 56.4 63.7

Med 23 57

Count 42 19

Tier - 3 60.9 166.1Med 60.9 166.1

Count 2 2

Mean investment (US $ M) - Metro status

Metro 42.5 79.3

Med 25.3 39

Count 91 36


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Non - metro 57.5 75.9

Med 27.2 63.1

Count 46 25

Mean competitiveness score of city 61.9 61.1

Mean corruption perception index 3.3 3.3

Mean Purchasing power of the city 50.2 50.8

Mean experience of developer (yrs) 26.8 24.6

Mean built up area of project ( in 1000 sqm) 303.1 409.8

70 24

Mean built up area to land area ratio 1.93 1.42

68 24

Mean investment (US $ M) - Project segment

Luxury 36.9 49.5

Med 18 36

Count 37 15

Mid-segment 50.6 99.1

Med 24 38

Count 52 21

Low-budget 14.4 32.7Med 11 36.4

Count 7 3


7/41

Mean comparison

-4

0.0001

3.33

0.0009

-0.92

0.357

-

-

-2.47

0.01

-2.05

0.04

--

-3.02

0.0025

-2.13

0.033

-

-

-2.69

0.007


8/41

-2.7

0.007

-1.27

0.204

-18.93

0

1.87

0.037

-1.34

0.18

-2.62

0.008

-

-


9/41

Feature Dedicated Diversified


Project mode 57.2 61.6

Med 33 36

Count 118 87

Entity mode 56.4 90.7

Med 36 50

Count 35 52

Mean investment (US $ M) - Geographical location

North 49.6 45.6

Med 34.8 30

Count 34 18

East 15.3 68.6

Med 11 68.7

Count 3 2

West 78.5 59.1

Med 35 33.3

Count 38 31

South 48.8 63.4

Med 27 41.7

Count 38 32

Central 14.7

Med 13.7 Count 2


Tier - 1 52.5 57.8

Med 29 31

Count 77 55

Tier - 2 60.2 56.7

Med 35 33

Count 34 27

Tier - 3 114.4 110.7Med 68 110.7

Count 3 1


Metro 53.4 53

Med 34.7 36

Count 74 52


10/41

Non - metro 62 66.6

Med 36 44.3

Count 40 31


Average corruption perception index 3.28 3.33

Mean Purchasing power of the city 50.1 50.9

Average experience of developer (yrs) 24.3 26.9

Mean built up area of project (10000 sqm) 360.5 431.8

65 29

Mean built up area to land area ratio 1.9 1.57

64 28


Luxury 47.4 30.5

Med 18.5 18

Count 21 31


Med 33.7 30.6

Count 23 49

Low-budget 15.0 27.2Med 11.8 26

Count 4 6


11/41

Mean comparison

-1.26

0.207

0.71

0.477

-0.3

0.779

-

-

-0.01

0.992

-0.94

0.347

--

-1.17

0.242

-0.73

0.465

-

-

-0.63

0.529


12/41

-1.33

0.183

-1.24

0.215

-16.29

0

0.84

0.2

0.8

0.42

-0.83

0.406

-

-


13/41

Feature Luxury Mid - segment

Mean investment (US $ M) across project segment 40.6 64.6

Med 18.5 30

Count 52 73Net 2110.8 4713.2


Count 65 98

Mean competitiveness score of city 62.3 61

Count 60 94

Location of projects across cities

Based on Tier of the city Luxury Mid - segment

% of projects in Tier - 1 75% 55%



Based on metro status

% of projects in metros 68% 54%

% of projects in non-metros 32% 46%

Mean built up area (1000 sqm) 279 472

Mean built up / land area ratio 2.02 1.66

Total number of projects 60 94


14/41

Low budget

Mean comparison - Low

budget and mid-segment

19.9

17.3 1.37

10 0.17 198.2

17.5

19 0.07

0.944

61.7

13 -0.92

0.357

Low budget

69%

23%

8%

69%

31%

213

1.66

13


15/41

Feature Townships Apartment

Mean investment (US $ M) across project end-use type 92.1 37

Med 57.9 18.9

Count 36 95Net 3315 3516


Count 45 132


Count 46 114

Location of projects across cities

Based on Tier of the city





% of projects in metros 43% 67%

% of projects in non-metros 57% 33%

Mean built up area (1000 sqm) 759.2 206.4

Mean built up / land area ratio 0.94 2.19

Total number of projects 46 114


16/41

Mean comparison -

Townships and

Apartments

-4.520

-3.18

0.001

3.09

0.002


17/41

Feature Domestic Foreign


Project mode 47.3 84

Med 25 50

Count 141 65

Entity mode 38 110

Med 25 74

Count 40 47

Z score 0.76 -0.66

P value 0.447 0.509


Tier - 1 43.2 80.2

Med 25 44

Count 93 40

Tier - 2 56.4 63.7

Med 23 57

Count 42 19

Z score 0.13 -0.39

P value 0.896 0.696

Mean investment (US $ M) - Metro status

Metro 42.5 79.3

Med 25.3 39

Count 91 36

Non - metro 57.5 75.9

Med 27.2 63.1

Count 46 25

Z score -0.14 -1.16

P value 0.888 0.246


Luxury 36.9 49.5

Med 18 36

Count 37 15


Med 24 38

Count 52 21


18/41

Z score 0.81 1.35

P value 0.417 0.177


19/41

Feature Dedicated


Project mode 57.2

Med 33

Count 118

Entity mode 56.4

Med 36

Count 35

Z score -0.54

P value 0.589


Tier - 1 52.5

Med 29

Count 77

Tier - 2 60.2

Med 35

Count 34

Z score -0.05

P value 0.96


Metro 53.4

Med 34.7

Count 74

Non - metro 62.0

Med 36

Count 40

Z score -0.31

P value 0.756


Luxury 47.4

Med 18.5

Count 31

Mid-segment 62.4

Med 33.7

Count 49


20/41

Z score 0.64

P value 0.522


21/41

Diversified

61.6

36

87

90.7

50

52

-0.51

0.61

57.8

31

55

56.7

33

27

-0.08

0.936

53.0

36

52

66.6

44.3

31

-1.13

0.258

30.5

18

21

71.6

30.6

23


22/41

1.8

0.071


23/41

Investor origin [D= 1 for

domestic and 0 otherwise]

Mode of investment [ D = 1 for

project, 0 otherwise]

Net PE Investment (US $ M) -32.4

t - stat -2.27

p value 0.024

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 1.34

t - stat 0.077

p value 0.938

Net PE Investment (US $ M) -33.23 6.96

t - stat -2.307 0.404

p value 0.022 0.687

Net PE Investment (US $ M) -36.52 -22.13

t - stat -2.910 -0.987

p value 0.005 0.326


dedicated and 0 otherwise]

Mode of investment [ D = 1 for

project, 0 otherwise]

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 4.16

t - stat 0.306

p value 0.760

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 4.07 1.21

t - stat 0.297 0.069

p value 0.767 0.945

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 1.44 -24.69

t - stat 0.116 -1.054

p value 0.908 0.295

Ratio of the projects built-up

to land area


domestic and 0 otherwise]

Net PE Investment (US $ M) -10.94


24/41

t - stat -2.363

p value 0.020


t - stat -2.218 -2.217

p value 0.029 0.029


t - stat -1.058 -1.993

p value 0.293 0.049


t - stat -2.018 -1.922

p value 0.047 0.058

MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.54

R Square 0.29

Adjusted R Square 0.18

Standard Error 52.82

Observations 92

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept 30.0 46.2FOR/DOM (Inv origin) -40.0 14.7

ENT/PRO (Inv mode) -27.0 23.7

DED/DIV 24.5 14.0

Built up area 2.4E-05 0.0

Dummy N 48.6 34.9

Dummy E 38.7 52.4

Dummy W 59.6 36.2

Dummy S 47.2 35.5

Metro status 3.3 14.1

Project end use -35.5 15.9

Dummy Luxury 13.0 25.9

Dummy Mid-Segmet 18.3 26.6


25/41

Built up area (in sqm)

Net PE Investment (US $ M)

t - stat

p value


t - stat

p value


t - stat

p value

3.86E-05 Net PE Investment (US $ M)

3.837 t - stat

0.000 p value



t - stat

p value


t - stat

p value

3.63E-05 Net PE Investment (US $ M)

3.455 t - stat

0.001 p value


t - statp value

Project end use type [D=1

for townships and 0 for

apartments] Project metro status


26/41

40.17

3.086

0.003

-11.76

-0.989

0.325

t Stat P-value

0.7 0.517-2.7 0.008

-1.1 0.258

1.7 0.085

1.9 0.056

1.4 0.168

0.7 0.462

1.6 0.103

1.3 0.188

0.2 0.814

-2.2 0.028

0.5 0.617

0.7 0.493


27/41

City competitiveness score Corruption index PPI

-0.29

-0.177

0.860

-8.91

-0.487

0.627

-1.04

-1.847

0.067

-0.99

-2.024

0.047

Project end use type [D=1 for

townships and 0 for

apartments]


domestic and 0 otherwise] Built up area (in sqm)

57.17

4.239

0.000

55.96 -30.11

4.200 -2.229

0.000 0.027

28.49 -32.00 2.58E-05

2.153 -2.557 2.294

0.034 0.012 0.024

Land area (sqm)

Project end use type [D=1

for townships and 0 for

apartments]

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 7.35E-06


28/41

t - stat 4.219

p value 0.000

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 6.13E-06 49.08

t - stat 3.583 3.402

p value 0.000 0.001

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 4.16E-06

t - stat 2.525

p value 0.013

Net PE Investment (US $ M) 4.82E-06 42.42

t - stat 3.045 3.189

p value 0.003 0.002


29/41


3.49E-05

2.817

0.006

0.46 11.00

0.021 0.531

0.983 0.597

Built up area (sqm)

Project segment [ D 1 = 1 for luxury, 0 otherwise

and D 2 = 1 for mid segemt and 0 otherwise]


30/41

1.29E-05

0.958

0.341

-8.02E-06

-0.559

0.578


31/41


32/41

Mean comparison Luxury

Project location

Based on Tier of the city

% of projects in Tier - 1 54%




% of projects in metros 55%

% of projects in non-metros 45%

Total projects 89

Average built up area (sqm) 97691

0.06 Average land area (sqm) 365371

0.952

Average Built up area / Land area 3.33

Apartments

Project location

0.99

0.322 Based on Tier of the city




0.6 Based on metro status

0.548 % of projects in metros 38%

% of projects in non-metros 62%

Based on geographical location

% of projects North 15%

% of projects East 14%

% of projects West 25%

-3.25 % of projects South 45%

0.002 % of projects Central 1%

Total projects 180

Average built up area (sqm) 81405

Average land area (sqm) 113923

Average Built up area / Land area 2.71


33/41

Mid - Budget Low-budget Feature

Geographical location

North

58% 70% Count

37% 9% East

5% 22% Count West

Count

58% 70% South

42% 30% Count

Central

99 23 Count

City tier

86871 712775

150836 221520 Tier - 1

Count

1.80 2.42 Tier - 2

Count

Tier - 3

Count

Townships

Metro status

Metro

43% Count

42% Non - metro

15% Count

57%

43%

23%

6%

23%

47%

2%

53

353188

645531

1.43


34/41

Built up area (sqm) Land area (sqm) Average Built up area / Land area

153116 518055 1.4

18 32 27

34542 289206 1.8

21 26 23256267 266508 4.2

41 47 52

98841 154229 1.9

79 87 100

47012 83550 0.9

2 3 3

172028 190567 2.8

93 107 123

91770 306537 2.0

57 74 69

60124 548745 1.1

11 13 13

172028 190566 2.77

93 107 125

86651 342728 1.83

68 87 80

G

th


35/41

ives an idea of the real option in the project. Since not all PE deal are at

e land acquistion level, an investor may be inclined to invest in projects

ehre the FAR is higher since the total saleable area goes up. Explored

some papers which have used this.

High rise apartments


36/41

Without PE

investment With PE investment

Mean project cost (Rs. Crore) 951 1651

Built-up to land-area ratio 1.35 7

Construction cost to land cost ratio 1.78 1.86

Land acquistion cost (Crore Rs. Per acre)

Non-metro 11.47 27.46

Metro 19.44 91.54

Overall 15.39 64.08

Total projects 59 42

Probit model - 1

Variable Coefficient Std. Error

B_L 0.3531800 0.10

PROJECT_COST__RS__CRORE_ 0.0000238 0.00

METRO_STATUS 0.0504130 0.28

CC_LC -0.0909970 0.08C -0.8528140 0.28

McFadden R-squared 0.181 Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var 0.495 S.E. of regression

Akaike info criterion 1.212 Sum squared resid

Schwarz criterion 1.341 Log likelihood

Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.264 Deviance

Restr. deviance 137.141 Restr. log likelihood

LR statistic 24.760 Avg. log likelihood

Prob(LR statistic) 0.000

Obs with Dep=0 59 Total obs

Obs with Dep=1 42

Probit model - 2



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METRO_STATUS 0.041572 0.097833

B_L 0.010113 0.004253

C 0.356547 0.070432

R-squared 0.060432 Mean dependent var

Adjusted R-squared 0.041257 S.D. dependent var

S.E. of regression 0.484999 Akaike info criterionSum squared resid 23.05198 Schwarz criterion

Log likelihood -68.70567 Hannan-Quinn criter.

F-statistic 3.151616 Durbin-Watson stat

Prob(F-statistic) 0.047151

Probit model - 3


B_L 0.01016 0.004

END_USE 0.049557 0.109

C 0.342369 0.092

R-squared 0.061 Mean dependent var

Adjusted R-squared 0.042 S.D. dependent var

S.E. of regression 0.485 Akaike info criterion

Sum squared resid 23.045 Schwarz criterion

Log likelihood -68.691 Hannan-Quinn criter.

F-statistic 3.166 Durbin-Watson stat

Prob(F-statistic) 0.047


38/41

-2.29

0.011

-4.05

0.001-1.37

0.085

-2.16

0.0154

-1.13

0.129

-2.48

0.006

z-Statistic Prob.

3.45 0.001

0.28 0.777

0.18 0.855

-1.18 0.240-3.01 0.003

0.416

0.448

19.302

-56.190

112.380

-68.570

-0.556

101

t-Statistic Prob.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Without PE investment With PE investment

Project cost

1.35

7

1.78

Without PE investment With P

Land usage and cost structBuilt-up to land-area ratio Construction cost to l

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00


39/41

0.424926 0.6718

2.377937 0.0193

5.062263 0

0.415842

0.495325

1.4199141.497591

1.45136

1.860698

t-Statistic Prob.

2.401 0.018

0.456 0.649

3.727 0.000

0.416

0.495

1.420

1.497

1.451

1.828

Without PE investment With PE investmen


40/41

Project cost

1.86

E investment

reand cost ratio

Land acquistion cost (Crore Rs. Per acre)

Tier - 1 only Land acq. cost

Tier 2 & 3 Land acq. costs


41/41

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