Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model
Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I
and Non-Annex I to the Historical Global Temperature Change and Sea Level Rise
Natalia Andronova and Michael [email protected] [email protected] Research Group
Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Phase 1 - Initial check
• HadCM3 climate model4xCO2 A2 future emissions scenario
Timeframe: 1760 to 2100
Phase 2 - Sensitivity study
• four country groupsOECD in 1990 (OECD)Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (REF)Asia (ASIA) Africa and Latin America (ALM)
Timeframe
Emissions start dates: 1890 Emission end dates: 2000 The time for which the attribution calculations will be performed: 1980, 1990, 2000
Model parameters:
• Emissions :Historical: EDGAR database (1.3)
(http://www.rivm.nl/env/int/coredata/edgar/)
Future: A2 emission scenario from the IPCC SRES
• Emissions to Concentrations:
Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002): Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO2-Stabilization Scenarios.
Integrated Assessment, 2(3), 95-199.
• Concentrations to radiative forcing: as in the IPCC TAR.
(t) i(t)i 1
4
ij(t) eij (t)
eij(t)j1
4
i (t) , j 1,..., 4
ij(t)j 1
4
i(t) , i 1,...,4
temperature changeor
sea level rise
over gases
over regions
Case 1:the cumulative emissions for all species
Case 2:the cumulative emissions for GHGinstantaneous for sulfates
Case 3:the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2Oinstantaneous for CH4&sulfates
Global mean temperature change
ALM
Case 1:the cumulative emissions for all species
Case 2:the cumulative emissions for GHGinstantaneous for sulfates
Case 3:the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2Oinstantaneous for CH4&sulfates
SEA LEVEL RISE
Conclusions:
A cooling effect of the sulfate aerosol is highly important
Recommendations
other aerosols, such as those due to biomass burningand fossil fuelsother greenhouse gases, such as the chlorofluorocarbonsand tropospheric ozone
should be included in the analysis:
to use other coupled GCMs, with different climatesensitivities and different oceanic heat uptakes
to calibrate the simple climate model:
different databases for the historical emissions.
