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Results of just-auto's annual auto industry survey
Results of just-auto's
annual auto industry survey
➢Business confidence
➢Car market forecasts for 2013
➢Car companies – winners and losers
➢Views on consumer/market
preferences
How do you feel about business prospects for your company over the next 12 months?
What do you see as the biggest risks ahead for the industry in 2013? (Please rank 1-4; 1= biggest risk)
What area of automotive innovation do you think will be of greatest importance to the consumer in 2013? (Tick those that apply)
What do you think will happen to the following car markets in 2013? (Tick for markets you know about; otherwise leave blank)
➢ Mainstream carmakers face greater pressures from above and
below; more cost pressures on whole supply chain.
➢ Major OEM to go under? No, 72%.
➢ Greater market acceptance for hybrids? Yes, 71%
➢ Will pure EVs continue to sell below target in 2013? Yes, 87%
➢ Auto industry execs to have good year in 2013:
o Alan Mulally
o Martin Winterkorn
o Akio Toyoda
More of the same: another year of uneven growth around the world
Europe – with its economic problems - is the main source of gloom, risk
and structural problems
Cost pressures and maintaining profitability are the big industry-wide
challenges
There are good growth opportunities in NA and Asia
Successful companies make products people want to buy and have a
good global sales and production footprint (and less Europe exposure)
44% of respondents 'quite optimistic' on the outlook for their company
European Automotive Outlook Jonathon Poskitt 27 February 2013
Outline
• Economic Environment
• Car Market Outlook
• Implications for Production
© LMC Automotive 2
Economic indicators remain concerning…
Source: Oxford Economics
© LMC Automotive 3
European Consumer Confidence
Source: European Commission
© LMC Automotive 4
UK Recoveries from Recession
Real GDP, Relative to Pre-Recession Level
Source: NIESR 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Months Elapsed Since Onset of Recession
Great Depression 1930-34
1973-1976 1979-1983
1990-1993
2008 - ????
1920-1924
10%
-12%
© LMC Automotive 5
Eurozone GDP Outlook…
© LMC Automotive 6
German Car Market S
ales
Vol
ume
(mn)
Avg ‘00-’07 3.30 mn -3% +9%
• After a healthy first half to 2012, ongoing bad news on Eurozone hit consumer confidence led to rapid deterioration in H2
• Nov ’12 to Jan ’13 selling rate average of 2.9 mn units/year
-3%
© LMC Automotive 7
Spanish Car Market S
ales
Vol
ume
(mn)
Avg ‘00-’07 1.54 mn
-18% -13%
• Lift given by PIVE scrappage incentive scheme though thus far failed to translate into significant boost (January selling rate at 690,000 units/year)
• When incentive ends, selling rate is set to dip further
-5%
© LMC Automotive 8
Italian Car Market S
ales
Vol
ume
(mn)
Avg ‘00-’07 2.37 mn
-11%
-5%
• Selling rate at 1.4 mn units/year in final quarter of 2012, where full year ended
• Ongoing fiscal austerity measures and climbing unemployment will continue to act as a drag this year. Latest SAAR just 1.1 mn units/year
-20%
© LMC Automotive 9
French Car Market S
ales
Vol
ume
(mn)
Avg ‘00-’07 2.09 mn
-2%
-9%
• Scrappage incentives extensively used throughout recession, with final incentive-related boost in Q1 2011
• Market continued to hold up well reasonably well until 2012. Latter few months’ selling rate has dropped below 1.8 mn units/year
-14%
© LMC Automotive 10
UK market improvement driven by private retail side…
© LMC Automotive 11
UK Car Market S
ales
Vol
ume
(mn)
Avg ‘00-’07 2.45 mn
-4% 1%
• Against the general trend in Western Europe, the UK has made solid progress, driven by the private retail side of the market
• Economic conditions remain testing for this year; we remain cautious of strong market growth in 2013
5%
© LMC Automotive 12
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Millions
SAAR Moving Average Forecast Annual
Car Sales in Western Europe
No recovery this decade
Forecast
5 year recovery
© LMC Automotive 13
Summary of Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts S
ales
Vol
ume
(mn)
© LMC Automotive 14
…yet European stocks nudging upwards (volume change, ‘000s)
2009 2010 2012 2011
© LMC Automotive 15
European LV Production : Recession ’000s
+15.0% +7.0% -5.6% -3.9%
© LMC Automotive 16
Capacity Utilization in Europe
60%
63%
2013
18.6mn
66%
2012
19.4mn
71%
2011
20.5mn
© LMC Automotive 17
Concluding Remarks
• Another year of market volume falls in Western Europe
• Of Big Five markets, only UK set to make progress
• Overall, European Light Vehicle market to fall 3%
• European production cut back and capacity utilization drops to 63%
© LMC Automotive 18
Accurate Real-Time Automotive Forecasting
and Market Intelligence
Oxford ● Detroit ● Frankfurt ● Bangkok ● Shanghai
www.lmc-auto.com
© LMC Automotive 19
