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8/10/2019 Results of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for Southeast Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning Uncertainties (2015-2020), USAID
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15th ELECTRICITY FORUM OF THE ENERGY COMMUNITY
ATHENS
Results of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for SoutheastResults of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for Southeast
Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission PlanningEurope Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning
and Uncertainties (2015and Uncertainties (2015--2020)2020)
Robert F. Ichord, Jr., Ph.D.
Chief, Energy and Infrastructure
Jamshid Heidarian, Ph.D.Senior Energy Advisor
US Agency for International Development
Europe and Eurasia Bureau
on behalf of SECIon behalf of SECI--TPWGTPWG
November 26, 2009
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SECI TSP Goals
Promote Regional Transmission Planning AmongSoutheast Europe TSOs
Harmonize Transmission Planning Principles,
Methods and Methodologies
Identify Priority Investments in Transmission
Systems & Interconnections
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SECI TSP Objectives
Create Sustainable International ExpertTransmission Planning Working Group (WG)
Support Common Planning Software Platform
(PSS/E) Analyze Regional System to Identify Bottlenecks
Identify Potential Transmission Investments
Needed to Enhance Trade
Promote Analytical Results To Policy &
Regulatory Authorities
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SECI TSP Governance & Operation
MOU Steering Committee
Working Group - 2 participants from each TSO
Project Technical Coordinator: MEPSO USAID & USEA Provide Technical, Financial &
Admin Support
TSOs Cost Share
Model Integrator & Analytical Support: Electricity Coordination Center of Belgrade
Energy Institute of Croatia
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SECI TSP Project Participants
Albania -- Transmission System and Market Operator Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Independent System Operator in
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Electricity Transmission Company of
Croatia -- HEP Transmission System Operator LLC Kosovo Transmission System and Market Operator (KOSTT)
Macedonia Macedonia Transmission System Operator
Montenegro AD Prenos
Romania Transelectrica
Serbia JP Elektromereza Srbjie (EMS)
Italy TERNA (observer)
Slovenia Elektro Slovenia (observer)
Turkey Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (observer)
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Overview
HISTORY Southeast Europe Cooperation Initiative 1998
Regional Transmission System Planning Project 2001
Models for 2005, 2010, 2015 AND 2020: PSS/E Format, Steady
State, Dynamic, Short Circuit (Winter Peak, Summer Off-Peak) Studies
Regional Electricity Interconnection Study 2002
Generation Investment Study (GIS): PSS/E Analysis and
Results 2004 Transmission Network Investment Criteria 2007
Evaluation Of Investments In Transmission Network toSustain Generation and Market Development In SEE 2007
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Transmission Network Planning
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED UTILITIES INTEGRATED PRODUCTION, TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
PLANNING
OPTIMIZATION ON NATIONAL LEVEL
AVAILABLE DATA
UNCERTAINTIES (LOAD GROWTH, HYDROLOGY, GENERATORS AND
NETWORK AVAILABILITY)
OPEN MARKET ENVIRONMENT
REGULATED TRANSMISSION ACTIVITIES
SEPARATED COMPANIES
MARKET TRANSACTIONS (UNPREDICABLE FOR A LONG-TIME FRAME) SECURITY VS. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
PLANNING ABOVE NATIONAL LEVEL (COORDIATION BETWEEN TSOs)
UNCERTAINTIES (POWER PLANTS CONSTRUCTION AND DISPATCH,ELECTRICITY PRICES, MARKET TRANSACTIONS, REGULATORYREQUESTS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES etc.)
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Transmission Network Planning
EXPERIENCES IN THE SEE 9 TSOs
National Grid Codes
Lack of Regional Grid Code
Different Planning Criteria (Harmonization Is Needed) Market Issues - Not Satisfactory Treated
PLANNING CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGY
Mostly Used (N-1) Technical Criterion
Lack of Economic Criteria Power System Simulations, Multi-scenario Analyses
SECI Study Transmission Network Investment Criteria Suggestion Of Common Technical And Economic Criteria From
Regional Perspective Transmission Projects Prioratization From Regional Perspective
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What is the most influential uncertaintyin your country related to a
transmission network planning?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unknownpowerplantssizeandlo
cations
Unknownproductioncosts/bidsandgener...
Loadgrowthrate
Futuremarkettransactions
Other(W
PPs)
Other(electricityprice)
No of answers
THE MOST IMPORTANTUNCERTAINTIES:
Unknown Power PlantsSize And Locations
Load Growth
Wind Farms
Future MarketTransactions
Unknown Generators
Dispatch Electricity Price
Uncertainties in SEE Transmission Network
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Study on Uncertainties in the SEE
Transmission System Objectives:
Identify Most Important Uncertainties in EachIdentify Most Important Uncertainties in Each SSEE CountryEE Country
Analyze & Evaluate Impact of Different Uncertainties onAnalyze & Evaluate Impact of Different Uncertainties onPlanned Transmission Investments and SEE TransmissionPlanned Transmission Investments and SEE TransmissionSystemSystem
Scenarios (73):
Power Plants Construction Plan Connection of Italian Market With SEE Market
Connection of Turkish Market With SEE Market
Individual Countries Power Balance
Branches And Generators Availability
Planning Time Frame
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COUNTRIES POWER BALANCE:
ALBANIA (ZERO BALANCE,EXPORT)
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (ZEROBALANCE, EXPORT)
BULGARIA (ZERO BALANCE,EXPORT)
CROATIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT)
MACEDONIA (ZERO BALANCE,IMPORT)
MONTENEGRO (IMPORT, EXPORT)
ROMANIA (ZERO BALANCE,EXPORT)
SERBIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT)
Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd
SLOVENIA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT)
TURKEY (IMPORT, EXPORT)
UNMIK (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT)
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Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd
TPP
Kosovo
NPP
Krsko 2
HPP
KozjakWPP AL - IT ME - IT HR - IT RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS SI TR UNMIK
Line 220 kV Dunamenti - Martonvasar (HU) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Tie-line 220 kV Divaca (SI) - Padriciano (IT) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Tie-line 220 kV Pehlin (HR) - Divaca (SI) X X X XTransformer 400/220 kV in Trebinje (BA) X X
Transformer 400/220 kV in Pljevlja (ME) X
Tie-line 220 kV Trebinje (BA) - Perucica (ME) X
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Konjsko (HR) X
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Imotski (HR) X
Tie-line 220 kV Fierza (AL) - Prizren (RS) X
Transformer 400/220 kV in Sibiu (RO) X
Line 220 kV Lotru - Sibiu (RO) X X X
Line 220 kV Beograd 8 - Beograd 17 (RS)Transformer 400/220 in Maritsa East
Line 400 kV Sajoszoged - Detk (HU) X
Tie-line 400 kV Melina (HR) - Divaca (SI) X
Line 220 kV Dobrudzha - Madara (BG) X
Line 220 kV Focsani Vest - Barbosi (RO) X
Transformer 400/220 in Rosiori (RO) X
Line 220 kV Ungheni - Iernut (RO) X
Line 400 kV Constanza - Cernavoda (RO) X
Line 400 kV Tantareni - Turceni (RO)
Line 220 kV Orlovac - Konjsko (HR)
Line 220 kV Elbasan - Cekin (AL)
Power balance uncertainties for the territoriesConnection to Italian/Turkish market
uncertaintiesCritical element
Base
case
Power plants construction uncertainties
IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2015:
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Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd
TPP
Kosovo
NPP
Krsko 2
HPP
KozjakWPP AL - IT ME - IT HR - IT RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS SI TR UNMIK
Line 220 kV Dunamenti - Martonvasar (HU) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Tie-line 220 kV Divaca (SI) - Padriciano (IT) X X X X
Tie-line 220 kV Pehlin (HR) - Divaca (SI)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Trebinje (BA) XTransformer 400/220 kV in Pljevlja (ME)
Tie-line 220 kV Trebinje (BA) - Perucica (ME)
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Konjsko (HR)
Line 220 kV Zakucac - Imotski (HR)
Tie-line 220 kV Fierza (AL) - Prizren (RS)
Transformer 400/220 kV in Sibiu (RO)
Line 220 kV Lotru - Sibiu (RO) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Line 220 kV Beograd 8 - Beograd 17 (RS) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Transformer 400/220 in Maritsa East XLine 400 kV Sajoszoged - Detk (HU) X X
Tie-line 400 kV Melina (HR) - Divaca (SI)
Line 220 kV Dobrudzha - Madara (BG)
Line 220 kV Focsani Vest - Barbosi (RO)
Transformer 400/220 in Rosiori (RO)
Line 220 kV Ungheni - Iernut (RO)
Line 400 kV Constanza - Cernavoda (RO)
Line 400 kV Tantareni - Turceni (RO) X
Line 220 kV Orlovac - Konjsko (HR) X
Line 220 kV Elbasan - Cekin (AL) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Power balance uncertainties for the territoriesConnection to Italian/Turkish market
uncertaintiesCritical element
Base
case
Power plants construction uncertainties
IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2020:
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Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd
THE MOST CRITICAL LINES ANDTRANSFORMERS IN THE REGION
OHL 220 kV DIVACA (SLO) PADRICIANO (I)
OHL 220 kV PEHLIN (HR) DIVAA (SLO)
TR 400/220 kV TREBINJEOHL 220 kV ZAKUCAC (HR) IMOTSKI (HR)/RAMA
(BIH)
TR 400/220 kV MARITZA
OHL 400 kV CONSTANTA CERNAVODA
TR 400/220 kV ROSIORI
OHL 220 kV UNGEHENI - IERNUT
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Conclusions
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Alba
nia
Bosnia
and
Herzegovin
a
Bulg
aria
Croatia
FYRO
M
Montenegro
Romania
Serbia+UN
MIK
Slovenia
Austria
Hungary
Greece
MVAorMW
Interconnection capacities (MVA)
Production capacities (MW)
Peak load (MW)
SEE REGIONAL TRANSMISSION
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT:
STRONG INTERCONNECTIONSEVEN TODAY
CONGESTION MANAGEMENT
COORDINATED AUCTIONING
HIGHER NTC VALUES
INTERNAL NETWORK
REINFORCEMENTS
NEW PROJECTS IF TECHNICALLYAND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE
STRONGER REGULATORY
AGENCIES INDEPENDENT TSOs
COORDINATION IN PLANNING HARMONIZATION OF PLANNING
STANDARDS
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Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning
Project
Electro Power System Operator of Armenia
Energy Institute of Armenia
Electricity System Operator -- ESO EAD BulgariaGeorgian State Electrosystem (GSE)
Moldelectrica
Transelectrica
System Operator United Power System of Russia
Turkish Electricity Transmission Company
National Electric Company Ukrenergo
United States Agency for International Development
United States Energy Association
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Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning
Project
Modeled
Equivalented
RUS
GE
AZB
BUL
BL
ES
GRE
HUN
LA
LI
MKD
POL
ROM
SV
TU
UK
SCG Black Sea
MLD
ARM
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Black Sea Regional Transmission
Planning Project High voltage network-transmission network
750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110kV
networkGenerator units at their nominal voltage level
Step-up transformers for main generation
capacities All new substations and lines that are expected to
be operational till 2020 (according to the longterm development plans)
Development of Regional model Guidelines
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Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning
Project
Load flow Model development 2010 Winter peak,
2010 Summer off-peak 2010 Summer peak
2015 Winter peak
2015 Summer peak 2015 Summer off-peak
2020 Winter peak
2020 Summer peak
2020 Summer off-peak
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Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning
Project
Evaluation of network transfer capabilities
ETSO methodology used Identify the existing potential for electric power
trade in the region
Verify values through dynamic analysesCritical regimes (exchange)
Select outage to investigate
Monitor machines
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Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning
Working Group
Network Models Developed According to the Long Term National
Development Plans
Annual Updates Based on Significant Changes in the National
Economies
BSTP WG Developed Strong Analysis Skills and Accurate Tools
For Assessing the Efficiency of Investments, not only from
National Points Of View, but from a Regional Point of View
Completed Network Models for Middle And Long Term Horizons,
for both Steady State and Dynamic Stability Analysis
High Level Expertise Regarding Possible Transfer Scenarios andTechnical Conditions for Market Based Transactions