+ All Categories
Home > Travel > Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

Date post: 14-Jan-2015
Category:
Upload: ritaantonietaneves
View: 616 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
Description:
Developed by ILM ■ THR, the 10-10-10 Residential Tourism Survey consists of a quarterly barometer analysis, the objective of which is to evaluate the market’s level of confidence, performance and trends of the tourist real estate sector in Portugal. This analysis is one of the three initiatives launched by ILM ■ THR during 2008, under the umbrella brand of “Portugal Residential Tourism Market Intelligence”, which have a common objective – to provide market information, and collecting detailed and updated information on the Residential Tourism. For the development of the present analysis, a questionnaire comprising10 questions was submitted to the following Developers and Real Estate Agents - leaders in the national market: 8 Developers: 􀂃 Norte Golfe Promoções Turísticas e Imobiliárias, S.A. - Porto 􀂃 Bom Sucesso - Óbidos Empreendimentos Turísticos, S.A. - Óbidos 􀂃 ORIZON CAMPOREAL S.A. - Óbidos 􀂃 MSF - TUR.IM, SGPS, S.A. - Lisboa 􀂃 Newlyn Portugal - Algarve 􀂃 Pestana Imobiliária - Algarve 􀂃 Vale do Lobo, Resort Turístico de Luxo, S. A. - Algarve 􀂃 Grupo Oceânico – Oeste e Algarve 8 Real Estate Agents: 􀂃 Abacus Savills - Lisboa 􀂃 Atlantic Estates - Algarve, Lisboa e Costa de Prata 􀂃 Garvetur - Sociedade de Mediação Imobiliária S.A. - Algarve 􀂃 IRG International Reality Group - Lisboa 􀂃 John D Griffiths - Algarve 􀂃 Prunty\'s Overseas Properties S.A. - Lisboa 􀂃 Sadlers Mediação Imobiliária - Knight Frank - Algarve 􀂃 Winkworth - Algarve
Popular Tags:
22
10 10 10 Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM THR PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM THR QUARTER BAROMETER ANALYSIS OF THE PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE 4 th QUARTER 2008 vs 1 st QUARTER 2009 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS I L M INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS I L M INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 1 Lisbon, 26 February 2009
Transcript
Page 1: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

QUARTER BAROMETER ANALYSIS OF THE PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE

4th QUARTER 2008 vs 1st QUARTER 2009

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

1Lisbon, 26 February 2009

Page 2: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction 3

1 - Residential Tourism Market Confidence 4

2.1 - Level of business activity - Sales 5

2.2 - Level of business activity – Holiday Rentals 6

3 1 W i ht f S l t l A t t T h d Vill 73.1 - Weight of Sales per typology – Apartments,Townhouses and Villas 7

3.2 - Weight of Holiday Rentals per tipology – Apartaments and Villas 10

4 - Market Interest in the regions of Oeste, Lisboa , Algarve and Porto in the 4th Quarter 2008 12

5.1 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Sales 13

5.2 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Holiday Rentals 14

6 - Ranking of the buying decision factors for the 4th Quarter 2008 15

7 - Markets that represented a competitive threat to Portugal in the 1st Quarter 2009 16

8.1 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Sales 17

8 2 Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 Holiday Rentals 188.2 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Holiday Rentals 18

9 - Marketing measures that entities are considering to implement on the 1st Quarter 2009 19

10 – Final conclusions ILM ■ THR 20

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

Page 3: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

INTRODUCTION

Developed by ILM ■ THR, the 10-10-10 Residential Tourism Survey consists of a quarterly barometer analysis, the objective of which is to evaluate themarket’s level of confidence, performance and trends of the tourist real estate sector in Portugal.

This analysis is one of the three initiatives launched by ILM ■ THR during 2008, under the umbrella brand of “Portugal Residential Tourism MarketIntelligence”, which have a common objective – to provide market information, and collecting detailed and updated information on the ResidentialTourism.

For the development of the present analysis, a questionnaire comprising10 questions was submitted to the following Developers and Real Estate Agents -leaders in the national market:

8 Developers:Norte Golfe Promoções Turísticas e Imobiliárias, S.A. - PortoBom Sucesso - Óbidos Empreendimentos Turísticos, S.A. - ÓbidosORIZON CAMPOREAL S.A. - ÓbidosMSF - TUR.IM, SGPS, S.A. - LisboaNewlyn Portugal - AlgarvePestana Imobiliária - AlgarveVale do Lobo, Resort Turístico de Luxo, S. A. - AlgarvegGrupo Oceânico – Oeste e Algarve

8 Real Estate Agents:Abacus Savills - LisboaAtlantic Estates - Algarve, Lisboa e Costa de PrataGarvetur - Sociedade de Mediação Imobiliária S.A. - Algarveç gIRG International Reality Group - LisboaJohn D Griffiths - AlgarvePrunty's Overseas Properties S.A. - LisboaSadlers Mediação Imobiliária - Knight Frank - AlgarveWinkworth - Algarve

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 3

Page 4: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

1 - RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE 1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

CONFIDENCE1 Quarter 2009 vs 4 Quarter 2008

80%

CONFIDENCEResidential Tourism Market

Confidence1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008

80% LOW TO AVERAGE

13%

40%

27%

13%7%

Low Average Low Average Average

highHigh

7%

Comparing the 1st quarter 2009 with 4th quarter 2008, 13% of the participants in the analysis have classified the market confidence aslow, 40% average low and 27% average.

It is important to highlight that in the perspective of the Developers, the market confidence appears slightly higher when compared withthat of the Real Estate Agents.

Qualitative comments:

Developers:“Potential clients are insecure and not ready for investment decisions”.“Media reports and continued bank problems have totally scared people off in investing -- even for those who have the money”.

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 4

Real Estate Agents:“Currently we do not see any difference in perceptions in Q1 when compared with Q4 2008 which was quite depressed”.“We hope that by the Q4 2009 the confidence will return to the market”.“We predict a market bottom around March - April at which time it will regain strength”.

Page 5: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

2.1 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY - SALES 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

SALES

69%

SALES

69%

Level of Business Activity - Sales3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008

69% SIMILAR31%

69%

0%

In the opinion of the Developers the level of Business Activity on Sales has been similar in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008 whereas the

LowerSimilar

Higher

In the opinion of the Developers, the level of Business Activity on Sales has been similar in the 3 and 4 quarters of 2008 whereas theReal Estate Agents consider that the level has been lower for the same period.

Considering the analysis per Region, the participating entities consider that the level of business activity diminished in the Algarve, andmaintained levels in the areas of Lisbon, Porto and Oeste.

Developers:Developers:“Investors" are looking for bargain buys, but we are not prepared to discount to the levels they are looking for.”.

Real Estate Agents:“Strong deterioration in market conditions from October to end December”.“The quantity does not express the drop in turnover. We felt a big drop in sales price from Q3 to Q4 2008”.“We have sold the same number of properties as in Q3 2008 but at lower prices”

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 5

We have sold the same number of properties as in Q3 2008 but at lower prices .

Page 6: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

2.2 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY – HOLIDAY RENTALS3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

HOLIDAY RENTALS

50% LOWER

HOLIDAY RENTALS

50%

Level of Business Activity – Holiday Rentals3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008

LOWER50%

SIMILAR

50% 50%

0%

LowerSimilar

Higher

The holiday rentals is only applicable to 8 of the survey participants and 50% of them consider that the level of business activity wassimilar and the remainder that the it was similar.

In the opinion of the Developers, the level of business activity for holiday rentals was similar, whereas the Real Estate Agents considerthat there are indications of a decline in this area.

Analysing the data by Region enables us o conclude that in the Algarve and in Lisbon the level of business activity decreased.

“The Q3 is the high season and the Q4 is low season”.

“Our rentals business in predominantly a Q3 business. We do not expect to see strong rentals in Q4”.

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 6

“The clients generally book, concentrate on summer holiday rental and first 2 months”.

Page 7: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

3.1 – WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - APARTAMENTS Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008y

The apartment supply is lower for typologies T0 and T4.

A significant part of the apartment sales was of typology T2 with 33%, followed by the T3 which represented 18% of the business activity.

APARTMENTS

T0 T1 T2 T3 T4

Comparing the opinions of Developers with the Real Estate Agents the distribution of the business activity is similar, except for the T0 typology. This may be justified by different sales and marketing approaches.

Developers 15.3% 15.1% 33.0% 18.6% 5.4%

Real Estate Agents 5.5% 11,5% 38.1% 27.4% 2.3%

Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments

Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter2009 - Apartments

According to the participants, the trend of the sales activity will besimilar.

Similar

Decrease

I

T0 T1 T2 T3 T4

Increase

Not Applicable

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

7

T0 T1 T2 T3 T4

Page 8: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - TOWNHOUSES Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008y

The behaviour is very similar in the opinion of all the participants.

We see that the business generated with Townhouses (TH) of 2bedrooms is significant because, despite the average prices being

TOWNHOUSES

TH2 TH3 TH4

T t l 21 3% 24 5% 14 0%lower than TH3, the generated volume is very similar between them. Total 21.3% 24.5% 14.0%

Developers 22.1% 26.3% 11.7%

Real Estate Agents 20.0% 21.3% 17.5%

Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Townhouses

“There is less demand for Townhouses when compared with previousyears”. The trend of the activity level for the Townhouses is likely to besimilar or to decrease.

Trend of the Townhouses sales in the 1st

Quarter 2009

Especially in the case of Townhouses of 4 bedrooms it is more certainthat there will be even less demand for this product.

The opinions of the Real Estate Agents and the Developers coincides. Similar

Decrease

Increase

Not Applicable

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

8

TH2 TH3 TH4

Page 9: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008y

Once again the opinions are similar among all the participants.

The typology V2 is of minimal importance. The figures for V3 and V4are particularly significant.

VILLAS

V2 V3 V4 V5

Total 10,5% 33.0% 31.9% 11.3%

t

Developers 7.0% 31.8% 34.4% 11.3%

Real Estate Agents 0.0% 23.3% 47.5% 16.0%

Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas

A higher volume of villa sales is foreseen for a price positioning at thehigh end of the market.

The trend of villas sales in the near future is positive and there is a

Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas

perception of improvement for V3 and V4.

Moreover, we can observe that the Real Estate Agents are morepositive than the Developers for this product in the 1st quarter 2009. Similar

Decrease

Increase

Not Applicable

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

9

V2 V3 V4 V5

Page 10: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY- APARTMENTS Holiday Rentals activity in the 4th Quarter 2008y y

There is not enough information to evaluate the holiday rentals activityfor the Real Estate Agents.

We can identify that the major part of the demand, at least in this

APARTMENTS

T0 T1 T2 T3 T4

Total 10.0% 35.0% 40.7% 11.7% 10%y j p ,season, is positioned in apartments T1 and T2. This is different tosales, which are more active for the T2 and T3.

“The demand of T2 has increased for the golf market”

“The situation is similar with the transition of 2007 to 2008”

10.0% 35.0% 40.7% 11.7% 10%

Developers 10.0% 35.0% 45.0% 11.7% 10%

Real Estate Agents N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments

The trend is clearly to increase the business activity of holiday rentals

Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments

The trend is clearly to increase the business activity of holiday rentals,which is normal considering that the 1st Quarter of the year usuallyhas more activity.

The current business forecast does not necessarily mean that themovement will be reflected in the occupancy rates for the 1st Quarter.On the contrary we know that the bookings made by the British

Similar

DecreaseOn the contrary, we know that the bookings made by the Britishmarket are for the summer season and are traditionally prepared atthis time of the year.

Increase

Not Applicable

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

10

T0 T1 T2 T3 T4

Page 11: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS Holiday Rentals activity In the 4th Quarter 2008y y

It is interesting to verify that villa holiday rental activity has a higherimpact on the Real Estates Agents’ income than that of theDevelopers.

VILLAS

Algarve V2 V3 V4

Total 3 75 % 28 75 % 62 5 %The possible reasons for this situation are:

• Higher loyalty rate of the clients – there is not enough historical datain the case of the recent resorts.

• More consolidated distribution channels.

Total 3.75 % 28.75 % 62.5 %

Developers 7.5 % 11.7 % 10 %

Real Estate Agents Na 32.5% 62.5%

• Larger diversity of product supply.

Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas

Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st

Quarter 2009 - Villas

According to the participants, the trend for the level of activity is to bemaintained.

Similar

Decrease

I

T0 T1 T2 T3 T4

Increase

Not Applicable

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

11

Page 12: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

4 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE REGIONS OF OESTE, LISBOA , ALGARVE AND PORTO IN THE 4th

Quarter 2008

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

4th Quarter 2008 and trend for the 1st Quarter 2009

WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN TODECREASEDECREASE.

LISBOA STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR.

WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVENINCREASE.

STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO INCREASE.PORTO

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

12

Page 13: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

5.1 – MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: SALES

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

BENELUXPORTUGAL

INTEREST BETWEEN SIMILAR AND WEAK

IRELAND

WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR

SPAIN

INTEREST BETWEEN SIMILAR AND STRONG

ENGLAND

WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR

SCANDINAVIA

SIMILARINTEREST WITHTREND TO BESIMILAR

GERMANY

SIMILAR INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE

BENELUX

INTEREST BETWEEN SIMILAR AND WEAK

h

AND WEAK WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR.

TO BE SIMILAR OR DECREASE.

STRONG WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR.

TO BE SIMILAR OR DECREASE

SIMILAR. TO BE SIMILAR.

AND WEAK WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR.

The interest of the market revealed for France and the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied from weak to similar and its trend forthe 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar.

The interest of the market revealed by Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the weak and the strong and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 isto be similar.

OTHER COUNTRIES AND REGIONS ARE BECOMING INTERESTED IN AQUISITION OF PROPERTIES IN PORTUGAL:

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

13SAUDIT ARABIA , POLAND, CENTRAL AFRICA, TURKEY, VENEZUELA, AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, GUATEMALA. 13

Page 14: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

5.2 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: HOLIDAY RENTALS

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL

INTEREST BETWEEN

IRELAND

SIMILAR INTEREST

SPAIN

WEAK INTEREST

ENGLAND

SIMILAR INTEREST OR

SCANDINAVIA

SIMILARINTEREST WITH

GERMANY

SIMILARINTEREST

BENELUX

SIMILAR ORWEAKBETWEEN

SIMILAR AND STRONG WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR DECREASE

INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR INCREASE

INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR

INTEREST OR WEAK WITH TREND TO DECREASE OR BE SIMILAR

INTEREST WITHTREND TO BESIMILAR

INTERESTWITH TRENDTO INCREASE.

WEAKINTERESTWITH TRENDTO BESIMILAR.

The interest of the market shown for the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the similar and the weak and its trend forthe 1st Quarter 2009 is to decrease or to be similar.

DECREASE

The interest of the market shown for France during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar.

The interest of the market shown for Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar or to increase.

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 14

Page 15: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

6 - RANKING OF THE BUYING DECISION FACTORS FOR THE 4th QUARTER 2008

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

Developers Real Estate AgentsDevelopers and Real

Estate AgentsFactors Average Ranking Average Ranking Average RankingProduct price 5 7 7 2 6 3

RANKING1 GENERAL MARKET CONFIDENCEp

General market confidence 7 1 9 1 8 1Currency exchange 7 2 7 3 7 2Primary value source market 6 5 5 6 5 7Range of residential products on offer 7 2 4 9 5 6Ease of travel to the nearest i t ti l i t 5 9 5 8 5 8

1. GENERAL MARKET CONFIDENCE2. CURRENCY EXCHANGE

3. PRODUCT PRICE

4. CLIMATEinternational airport 5 9 5 8 5 8Ease of travel to the site(s) location 4 10 5 6 5 9Climate 6 5 6 4 6 4Security 5 8 4 9 5 9Other(s) 6 4 5 5 6 5

5. OTHER(S)

6. RANGE OF RESIDENTIAL PRODUCTS ON OFFER

7 PRIMARY VALUE SOURCE MARKET

Other factors mentioned were:

- Availability of mortgages at competitive rates

7. PRIMARY VALUE SOURCE MARKET

8. EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE NEAREST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

9. SECURITY EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE SITE(S) LOCATION

- Property location – i.e. distance from beach, golf, etc

( )

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

15

Page 16: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

7 - MARKETS THAT REPRESENTED A COMPETITIVE THREAT TO PORTUGAL IN THE 1st

QUARTER 2009

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

QUARTER 2009

RANKINGTraditional markets Total Average Ranking

Spain 39 3 5 1 RANKING

1. SPAIN2. FRANCE

Spain 39 3,5 1France 34 2,8 2

Emergent markets Total Average RankingCyprus 22 2,2 4

3. TURKEY

4. CYPRUS AND GREECE

5. USA AND CARIBBEAN

6 DUBAI

Cyp us ,Turkey 28 3,1 3Greece 22 2,4 4Bulgary 14 1,6 8Malta 14 1,8 8

6. DUBAI

7. MOROCCO AND NORTH AFRICA

8. BULGARY AND MALTA

9. PALOP´S

Other markets Total Average RankingMorocco and North Africa 18 2,3 7USA and Caribbean 21 2,9 5PALOP's 11 1,4 9

b iDubai 19 2,4 6

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

16

Page 17: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

8.1 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISMMARKET FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 - SALES

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

MARKET FOR THE 2 QUARTER 2009 SALES

SALESLEVEL OF CONFIDENCE33% 33%

Level of Confidence in the Portuguese Residential Tourism Market ‐ Sales

2nd Quarter 2009

66% FROM WEAK

LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE

13%

33% 33%

13%FROM WEAK AVERAGE TO

AVERAGE Lower

AverageHigher

7%

It is important to highlight that in the 2nd Quarter 2009, the Real Estate Agents have shown more confidence on the market that theDevelopers.

“I think we will continue to see lower volumes of transactions in Q2 although it should show a slight improvement over Q1”

Higher

“Good year ahead”

“The clients are there. We need to make them special and create confidence in the products”.

“We have already seen a very strong demand from the local market for our products and we are expecting a number of sales. Due tocurrent economic crisis we do not expect a good financial year The Q3 and Q4 may look better but Q2 will be poor given feedback and

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

current economic crisis, we do not expect a good financial year. The Q3 and Q4 may look better, but Q2 will be poor given feedback andcomments from clients. I think that it is very difficult to preview the next months. Unfortunately, we are depending on a global economy.”

“We are assisting to an increase on the demand of fractionals.“ 17

Page 18: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

8.2 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKETFOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 – HOLIDAY RENTALS

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 HOLIDAY RENTALSHOLIDAY RENTALS

LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE37,5% 37,5%

Level of Confidence in the Portuguese Residential Tourism Market ‐ Holiday Rentals

2nd Quarter 2009

37,5 % FROM AVERAGE

WEAK TO AVERAGE AND 37 5% AVERAGE

12,5%

37,5%

12,5%

AND 37,5% AVERAGE STRONG

LowerAverage

Higher

0,0%

The holiday rentals is applicable only to half of the participant entities – 5 Developers and 3 Real Estate Agents.

The Developers estimate a level of confidence higher than that anticipated by the Real Estate Agents.

Qualitative comments:

Developers:

The market conditions may improve in the 2nd Quarter 2009.

Real Estate Agents:“The rental business is driven by UK holiday clients therefore, considering economic crisis and the valuation of the euro in relation to the

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

y y gpound, we believe it will be a slow year.”

18

Page 19: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

9 - MARKETING MEASURES THAT ENTITIES ARE CONSIDERING TO IMPLEMENT ON THE 1st

QUARTER 2009

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

QUARTER 2009

“Increase our presence in new markets and keep investing in marketing and communication. We are increasing the investment in direct marketing(database)”

“We are keeping our marketing budget for the Q2. We will focus on promotion of the website to target broader potential client base with a focus onEuropean countries. Translation of website in other languages and promotion through agents in other countries. We are investing on local promotion as19% of clients are generated locally and develop promotions targeted to Developers”.

“Continued promotion in top of the range magazines to focus on top end market”.

“Training staff to ensure they are fully able to deal with the issues, concerns of buyers and vendors alike”.

“Reinforcing the internet marketing hard sales training agents network and private shows to potential clients ”Reinforcing the internet marketing, hard sales training, agents network and private shows to potential clients.

“Our Marketing costs have been reduced in Portugal but have been similar to the UK with advertising on Sunday Times, Telegraph and relevant websites. We are opening new offices and participate in exhibitions.”

“Our objective is to create loyalty with customer. Increase the focus on the luxury lifestyle buyers adapting our marketing to the demand. We are focusingmore on events and less focus on printed material more into web marketing, increasing the quality of the information available on the web site.”

“We are minimizing marketing expenses and sale operation costs. We are redefining sales & marketing strategy and re-evaluating product range andprice payment terms conditions.. We will follow up and evaluate closely development of market conditions in Portugal, UK and Ireland.”

“We are concentrating our Marketing efforts on the Portuguese market as we have seen an increase in demand from the local market. We areestablishing partnerships with local agent to promote developments. We are investing in internet advertising in Portugal, outdoor advertising and install onsite sales office

“We are implementing marketing actions in Ireland and the UK will be more focused on personal contact with the client and networking to boost consumerconfidence and gain trust through building a client relationship and bringing the clients to Portugal on inspection trips. We are establishing partnershipswith the Russian market with local agents.“

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

19

Page 20: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

10 10 10Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R

QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS

ILM ■ THR

PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE

10. FINAL CONCLUSIONS ILM ■ THR

Q U A R T E R L Y M O N I T O R ILM ■ THR

There are no doubts that the world economic crisis affected the national real estate market and strongly hit the confidence, firstly of the RealEstate Agents and followed by the Developers.

The entities consulted in the scope of the present analysis pointed out a recovery of the confidence on the 4th Quarter 2009, beingperceptible a significant increase on the following Quarter (April to June), mostly conducted by the Real Estate Agents as a result of thedirect contact they maintain with the demand.

Regarding the level of activity, if in the perspective of the Real Estate Agents there has been a decrease on the sales volume, in theperspective of the Developers this has been similar and there has been identified a slight descendent on the prices, as a more visibleconsequence of the economic crisis.

The analysis of the volume of sales per mix of supply enables to highlight that the more demanded typologies of apartments andtownhouses were 2 and 3 bedrooms and it is foreseen that this situation is going to be similar. In the case of villas, the situation is slightlydifferent being predominant the interest of the typologies V3 and V4 which tends to increase Moreover it is important to point out thatdifferent, being predominant the interest of the typologies V3 and V4, which tends to increase. Moreover it is important to point out thatregarding the demand for villas, the real estate agents are more optimistic that the developers.

Generally we can conclude that the interest of the market is more sensible to the economic instability in the national regions where thetourist real estate is more developed - Algarve and Oeste. According to the consulted entities, these regions registered a weak interest ofthe demand with trend to maintain or increase in the Algarve and maintain or decrease in the Oeste.

In the regions of Lisboa and Porto the interest of the market tends to be remain strong.O 2º TRIMESTRE

DE 2009 DEVE

THE 2ND

QUARTER 2009 MAY PRESENT A g g

Analyzing the demand by countries of origin, the demand of countries such as Portugal, Spain, Germany, Scandinavia and Benelux tend tomaintain the interest on the national residential tourism market. Opposite to the demand of the markets in England and Ireland that presenta weak interest with trend to decrease, as consequence of the strong impacts that reached the economies of those countries. It is importantto emphasize that this difference will be more sensed in the national market in relation to the markets of England and Ireland, in face of thestrong dependence of Portugal to this two countries as great incoming markets of residential tourism.

DE 2009 DEVE APRESENTAR UMA LIGEIRA

MELHORIA COMPARANDO

MAY PRESENT A SLIGHT

IMPROVEMENT WHEN

COMPARED It is curious to verify the growing interest of demand by emergent markets such as Saudi Arabia, Poland, Central Africa, Turkey, Venezuela,Australia, Brazil and Guatemala.

In the basis of changes on the demand of residential tourism may be, besides the economic constraints, factors related with the competitivesupply of emergent countries such as Turkey, Cyprus or Greece, which are countries considered by the developers and real estate agentsconsulted on this analysis as true competitive threats to Portugal.

In a period of market stability factors such as the climate the security occupy the first positions in a ranking of the buying decision factors

COMPARANDO COM O 1º

TRIMESTRE

COMPARED WITH THE 1ST

QUARTER 2009

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

20

In a period of market stability, factors such as the climate, the security occupy the first positions in a ranking of the buying decision factorsof a tourist residential unit. However, on the period of analysis, those factors are drastically surpassed by factors such as the generalmarket confidence, currency exchange and product price.

20

Page 21: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

ILM, celebrating its 10th anniversary of consolidated development, was founded in 1999 by Andrew Coutts with theobjective to render a service of strategic consultancy in tourism, hospitality and leisure for the national market. Inthese 10 years of experience, ILM has grown organically and has evolved to the point of currently occupying a leadingposition in tourism consultancy. Oriented by the market and by innovation, ILM’s mission is to actively contribute tothe sustained development of the national hotel and tourism sectors, being the only independent consultancycompany specialized in the development and implementation of residential tourism projects.

Through ILM, several important structural projects were developed in Portugal, such as the Identification andBusiness Planning of the 10 Strategic Tourism Products defined in the PENT ‐ National Strategic Plan for Tourism NSPT,g g g ,and landmark projects for Portugal as a quality tourism destination, namely Praia Del Rey Marriott Resort, HiltonVilamoura, Conrad Quinta do Lago or Corte Velho by Six Senses.

The development of the PENT project, in partnership with THR, gave rise to the establishment of the official strategicpartnership with ILM THR Advisors in 2006 THR was founded in 1985 by Eulogio Bordas its current Presidentpartnership with ILM‐THR Advisors in 2006. THR was founded in 1985 by Eulogio Bordas, its current President.Starting its activity in Spain, THR renders its services all over the world, being referenced in EMEA as the majorcompany of its category and so being permanently sought by companies and governments of various countries aswell as by international institutions such as the European Union (EU) and the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

21

Praça Duque de Saldanha, Edifício Atrium Saldanha 10º J • 1050-094 Lisboa • Portugal

Tel.: (+351) 213 145 481 • Fax: (+351) 213 145 482 • e-mail: [email protected]

www.ilm-portugal.com

Page 22: Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

I L MI L MI L MI L MI L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

Praça Duque de Saldanha, Edifício Atrium Saldanha 10º J • 1050-094 Lisboa • Portugal

Tel.: (+351) 213 145 481 • Fax: (+351) 213 145 482 • e-mail: [email protected]

www.ilm-portugal.com

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

I L MI L MINTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS

22


Recommended