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Rethinking the Fundamentals of Aviation System Planning New Considerations for System Planning Pete Ricondo, Ricondo & Associates, Inc. | January 14, 2013
Rethinking the Fundamentals of Aviation System PlanningNew Considerations for System Planning
Pete Ricondo, Ricondo & Associates, Inc. | January 14, 2013
Discussion Outline
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• Airport System Plan Definitions and Process
• Recently Completed Studies
• Airport System Planning
– Challenges– Current and Future Trends in Aviation
• New Considerations for System Planning
Airport System Plan Definitions
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• United States Code, Federal Law 49 Section 47102:
– “Integrated airport system planning means developing for planning purposes, information, and guidance to decide the extent, kind, location, and timing of airport development needed in a specific area to establish a viable, balanced, and integrated system of public-use airports”
• Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5070-7, The Airport System Planning Process, 2004:
– “The main purpose of the airport system planning process is to determine the type, extent, location, timing, and cost of the airport development needed in a state or metropolitan area to establish a viable system of airports. The aviation planning agency and the FAA should use the findings of the planning process to guide them in making informed decisions regarding which local airport development proposals to consider for future review and support.
Airport System Plan Process
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Per FAA AC 150/5070-7:
Exploration of Aviation Issues in Study Area
Inventory of Current System
Identification of Air Transportation needs
Forecast of System Demand
Consideration of Alternative Airport Systems
Definition of Airport Roles and Policy Strategies
Recommendation of System Changes, Funding Strategies and Airport Development
Preparation and Implementation Plan
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Advisory Circular 150/5070-7, The Airport System Planning Process, 2004
Recently Completed Studies
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• Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP), Synthesis 14, Airport System Planning Practices, 2009.
• ACRP Report 31, Innovative Approaches to Addressing Aviation Capacity Issues in Coastal Mega-regions, 2010.
• Government Accountability Office (GAO), National Airspace System, Regional Airport Planning Could Help Address Congestion if Plans were Integrated with FAA and Airport Decision Making, December 2009.
Airport System Planning – Challenges
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• Some Capacity Concerns with the Existing Network of Airports
– Legacy Infrastructure – Shortage of Facilities in Large Metropolitan Areas – Unbalanced Airport Capacity
• GAO-10-120: “Nearly one-in four arriving flights delayed at major airports, even though a majority of the nation’s airports still have adequate capacity”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Bradley Int'lAirport
Newark LibertyInt'l Airport
WestchesterCounty Airport
Long Island MacArthur Airport
John F KennedyInt'l Airport
La Guardia Airport Stewart Int'lAirport
All Weather VMC IMC
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, ASPM Database, Calendar Year 2011
Actual Operations vs. Capacity at Select Airports in the New York/New Jersey Region
Airport System Planning – Challenges
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• Even if Planned Improvements are Completed, the FAA has Identified 14 Airports that May Be Become Significantly Congested by 2025
• Capacity Constraints and Delays at Congested Airports is Likely to Simulate Traffic Growth at Other Airports in the Region
Source: Government Accountability Office (GAO), National Airspace System, Regional Airport Planning Could Help Address Congestion if Plans were Integrated with FAA and Airport Decision Making, December 2009 based on FAA Future Airport Capacity Task 2 (FACT 2).
Airports Needing Capacity in 2015 and 2025, If Planned Improvements Occur
Airports projected to need capacity in 2015 and 2025, even if planned improvements occur
Airports projected to need capacity in 2025, even if planned improvements occur
Airport System Planning – Challenges
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• Lack of Integrated Infrastructure Strategies
– Individual Airport Master Plans Do Not “Fit” Together– Competing Governing Entities – Lack of Integration with Other Transportation Modes– Absence of Integration with Other Local, Regional, Federal Plans
Airport A Airport B
Airport C
Passenger Traffic Airlines
Aviation Revenues
Passenger Traffic Airlines
Aviation Revenues
Passenger Traffic Airlines
Aviation Revenues
Source: Ricondo & Associates, January 2013
Competing Interests Among Airports
Airport System Planning – Challenges
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• Disconnect between FAA Funding and Regional Aviation System Plan (RASP)
– Advisory Nature of RASP– RASP have Limited Influence on FAA Project Prioritization and Funding– Airport Sponsors Retain Authority over Planning and Development Decisions
Federal/National ACIP
AIP Funding Allocation
Regional ACIP
Local and Statewide CIP
Airport Master Plan
Airport Development
Projects
Federal, State, and Local Responsibilities
Source: Ricondo & Associates, January 2013
RASP
ACIP: Airport Capital Improvement Program AIP: Airport Improvement Program CIP: Capital Improvement ProgramRASP: Regional Aviation System Plan
Current and Future Trends in Aviation
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• Airline/Traffic Consolidation
– The Domestic Market has Become a Harsh Environment for U.S. Network Carriers
– Domestic Capacity Offered by U.S. Network Carriers has Dropped by 8.2%– International Capacity Offered by U.S. Network Carriers has Increased by 4.3%
Available Seat Miles CY2007 vs. CY2011 (in Percent)
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, available at http://apps.bts.gov/xml/air_traffic/src/index.xm, accessed January 7, 2013
-8.2%
4.3%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Dom ASM Int'l ASM
Current and Future Trends in Aviation
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• Airline/Traffic Consolidation
– Alliances and Mergers are Now a Preservation Tool For Network Carriers• Enhance Demand for the Network as a Whole - Consumers Place Value on Having
Access to Large Networks• Economies of Density Can be Achieved by Merging Networks• Alliances Provide a means to Exploit Each Other’s Networks and To Strengthen the
Competitive Positions of all Alliance Partners • Alliances between Airlines on International Markets Provide Virtual Hub Connections to
Untapped Markets• Alliance-Assisted Market Development can Lead to New Nonstop Service
C
E
F
A
D
GHB
Untapped International
Markets
International Destination
L
JKDomestic
Markets
Current and Future Trends in Aviation
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• The Integration of Rail Service At Major Hub Airports is Gaining More Consideration
Source: US High Speed Rail Association, http://www.ushsr.com/, accessed January 8, 2011
US High Speed Rail Association Vision for A Completed National System
88%84%
68% 66%62% 59%
59% 58% 53% 53% 55% 55%52%
12%16%
32% 34% 38%41% 41% 42% 47% 47% 45% 45%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current and Future Trends in Aviation
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• High-speed Rail Could Impact Passenger Demand and the Service Areas of Airports:
– Air Travel Substitution on Short-Haul (e.g. MIA- MCO)– Expanded Airport Service Area (Airport Feeder)
Source: High-Speed Train and Airports Integration. The case of the first Spanish private airport: Aeropuerto Central Ciudad Real, Escolástico Gonzalez Lopez, September 2009.
Air Travel
Rail Travel
Air Travel Substitution between Madrid and Barcelona - Air vs. Rail Travel Market Share
High Speed Rail Service Commissioning
Current and Future Trends in Aviation
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• Improved Air Traffic Management will Benefit Airports
– Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)• Replace Conventional Navigation Systems with Area Navigation (RNAV) and Required Navigation
Performance (RNP) Precision-Based Navigation Technologies and Procedures
• Optimize Use of the Airspace
• Reduce Separation Distances between Aircraft
• Increase Airspace and Airport Capacity
• The Implementation of NextGen:
– Will Increase the Capacity of Airfields, Particularly in Poor Weather Conditions
– Will Reduce Airspace Conflicts between Airports (e.g. LGA and JFK)
– Could Impact Triggers for the Reallocation of Traffic Demand within Airport Systems
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, http://www.faa.gov/news/testimony/news_story.cfm?newsId=10676, accessed January 5, 2011
Performance-Based Navigation: RNAV/RNP
Current and Future Trends in Aviation
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• Revenue Diversification– Airports Have Evolved into Steadily Expanding Centers of Business that Perform a Host
of Functions:• Shopping Malls
• Manufacturing Complexes
• Golf Courses
• Amusement Parks
• Hotels, and etc.
Dubai International Airport
Don MueangInternationalAirport
Singapore ChangiInternational Airport
Current and Future Trends in Aviation
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• New and Improved Aircraft Types
– Narrowbody Aircraft Have Much Longer Range than Older Models– Passenger Terminal Gate Frontage Productivity is Anticipated to Decline with
New Widebody Aircraft (e.g. Boeing 787-8, Airbus A380)
Source: Airbus and Boeing Websites, accessed January 2013.
Source: SimtraAeroTech AB, Pathplanner R5
Narrowbody Aircraft Ranges Comparison
Newer Generation
Older Generation
New Considerations for System Planning
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• Embrace the Concept of Capacity Sharing
– Identify Airports Primary Focus Areas • Examples:
– LaGuardia Airport: Domestic Short and Medium Haul Flights
– Newark Liberty International Airport: International and Domestic Medium Haul Flights
– John F. Kennedy International Airport: International Gateway
– Teterboro Airport: Corporate and General Aviation
– Differentiate Airport Classifications and Functions • Example: Kendall-Tamiami and Homestead General Aviation Airports
– Both General Aviation Airports
– Very Different Functions
Base Case, Scenario A (Traffic Redistribution+ High Speed Rail), and Scenario B (Traffic Redistribution + Expanded Service at Sonoma County Airport+ High Speed Rail)
New Considerations for System Planning
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• Integrate Local, State, and Regional Transportation Plans
– Light and High-Speed Rail– Local and Regional Roadway Networks
Source: Regional Airport Planning Committee, Regional Airport System Planning Analysis 2011 Update – Final Report, July 2011, http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/air_plan/RASPA-2011_update/Volume_1-Sept_2011_RASPA_Final_Report.pdf, accessed January 4, 2012.
Example of Airport System Scenarios : San Francisco Bay Area’s Airport System Traffic Projections
Notes: 1/ The Regional Airport Study being conducted for the San Francisco Bay area is collaborative effort involving the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), the Regional Airport Planning Committee (RAPC), the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (AQMD), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), San Francisco International Airport, Metropolitan Oakland international Airport, Norman Y. Mineta San Jose International Airport, and the California Department of Transportation, Division of Aeronautics (Caltrans).
2/ The California High-Speed Rail project is a planned high-speed rail system in the state of California that would serve major cities including Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Bakersfield, Palmdale, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Riverside, Irvine, and San Diego.
New Considerations for System Planning
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• Integrate Local, State, and Regional Transportation Plans
– Airport Express Train1/
Note: 1/ Airport Express is a service providing passenger rail transport from an airport to a nearby city by high-speed dedicated airport railway.
Photo Credits: Heathrow Express, www.heathrowexpress.com; Airport Rail Link, http://airportraillink.railway.co.th/th/index.html; Arlanda Express, Björn Fredriksson; Beijing Airport City, Snowy Owls
Airport Express; Beijing Capital Int’l Airport, People's Republic of China
Arlanda Express; Stockholm-ArlandaAirport, Sweden
Suvarnabhumi Airport Rail Link; Suvamabhumi Airport, Thailand
Heathrow Express; London Heathrow Airport, England
New Considerations for System Planning
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• Develop a Regional Commercial Strategy that Recognizes the Strengths and Weaknesses of Airports within the System
– Passenger Terminal Retail Development – Cargo Facilities– FBO and MRO Facilities – Landside Commercial Developments
• Hotels• Offices
– Logistic and Distribution Centers– Business Parks
• Identify which Airports/Assets are Best Suited to Accommodate Aviation and Non-Aviation Demand
New Considerations for System Planning
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• Recognize the Elasticity of Passenger Demand and the Need for Flexible Facilities
– Air Travel Price Sensitivity (e.g. “Southwest Effect”) – Effect of Ground and/or Airside Transportation Congestion – Airline Mergers
New Considerations for System Planning
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• Assess Regional Demand
• Develop Future Scenarios that Allocate the Forecast Regional Demand to Each Airport In the System
– Example: Miami Dade Aviation Department – General Aviation Airports
Source: Miami Dade System of Airports, General Aviation Activity Forecasts, November 2011; APO Terminal Area Forecast Detail Report, Issued January 2012; URS Corporation, March 2012.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Bas
ed A
ircra
ft
Year
MDAD System of GA Activity
Single Engine Multi-Engine TP Jet Rotor Total
Miami Dade Aviation Department (MDAD) System of General Aviation Activity-Based
Aircraft Projections
New Considerations for System Planning
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Source: ACRP Report 20, Strategic Planning in the Airport Industry, Ricondo & Associates, Inc.
AIRPORT SYSTEM PLAN
New Considerations for System Planning
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Exploration of Aviation Issues in Study Area
Inventory of Current System
Identification of Air Transportation needs
Forecast of System Demand
Consideration of Alternative Airport Systems
Definition of Airport Roles and Policy Strategies
Recommendation of System Changes, Funding Strategies and Airport Development
Preparation and Implementation Plan
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, Advisory Circular 150/5070-7, The Airport System Planning Process, 2004
Key Considerations:
Airport Capacity and DelayStrengths and Weaknesses of Individual Airports Within the SystemRole of Airports within the System Airspace Conflicts
Capacity Needs
Impacts of Other Transportation AlternativesAllocation of Regional Demand to Each Airport in the SystemElasticity of Passenger Demand
Regional Commercial Strategy
Primary Focus Areas of AirportsClassifications and Functions of Airports
New Considerations for System Planning
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• An Integrated and Collaborative Process Among Many Parties
Define the Requirements of the Various Stakeholders
Define Market Demand Scenarios
(Airports, Roadways, Rails)
Set goals and objectives that will allow for the development of an airport system plan
which provide adequate capacity* and result in a regional sustainable air
transport system.
Score Proposed Airport Projects
based on Statewide Evaluation Criteria and
Demand
Approve/Reject Projects based on National Priority
and Regional Transportation Plan
Submit Airport Project & Funding
Request
Prepare Regional ACIP
Distribute AIP Grant
Provide State Funding of AIP
Approved Capital Projects
Define Regional Transportation Plans
Identify Airport Primary Focus Area
Prepare Master Plan based on Individual Airports and System
Goals and Objectives and the
DOT Market Projections
Implement Projects
Note: *Adequate capacity implies a distribution of capacity that reflects the market demand and the needs and priorities of the widest range of stakeholders.
Source: Ricondo & Associates, Inc. , January 2013
