Rethinking workforce planning: Horizon 2035

Dr. Graham WillisHead of Research and Development, CfWI

Matt EdwardsHead of Horizon Scanning and International, CfWI

Rethinking health and care workforce planning

Let’s begin with four embarrassing admissions.

One

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.

Two

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.

Three

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.We don’t know who is best to provide them,

Four

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.We don’t know who is best to provide them,what they cost or if we can afford them.

Ebola crisis in West Africa

Recovery post-Ebola

Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone

Consider the whole systemHealth

Public health

Social care

10% Other health and support

21% Paid adult care and support

24%Volunteer adult care and support

43%

Unpaid adult care and support

2% Workforces modelled to date

Skills and competences

Competences

Skills

FacilitationLeadershipWellbeing

Knowledge Personal

Types of skill

Level of skillLow to High

Quantitative skills

Qualitative skills

What drives the demand for skills?

Demand for skills

Long-termconditions

InfectiousdiseasesBirths

One-offevents

What drives the supply of skills?

Supply of skills

Skill mix

Education &training

Workforcesupply

Capacityto learn

A new challenge: Horizon 2035

Today

What skills and competences do we have?

What might we need in future?

Robust strategic planning

Understand the system

Explore the future

Simulate the possibilities

Make robust responses

Focal question

Transparent and participatory

Benefits of robust strategic planning

Avoid unexpected consequencesEvaluate how our strategies perform across challenging futuresProduce robust solutionsIdentify corrections to keep on track

Understand who has what skills, the time spent on them and the cost

Prevent

Enable

Assess

Plan

Treat

Rehabilitate

Relieve

Link

Unpaid adult social care workforce

Nurses

Dentists

Medical generalists

Medical specialists

Volunteer care and support workforce

Other workforce groups

Workforce groups

Understand what the future might bring so you are not surprised

Use horizon scanning to discover what might be in the future.Use scenarios to promote debate and provide insight.Uncover new ideas and options.

Explore the drivers of demand to understand future workforce needs

What are the drivers of demand?How might they change in future?What is the uncertainty?

Popu

latio

n

Learning disabilities

Oral health

Singular demand for service

Maternal and perinatal

Infectious disease

Mental long-term conditions

Physical long-term conditions

Understand how the population drives the demand for skills, the proportions and costs

Understand how demand is met by your workforce today

Understand which workforce groups deliver what skills to meet demand.How much might demand change in future?What are the workforce pressures?

Popu

latio

n

Learning disabilities

Oral health

Singular demand for service

Maternal and perinatal

Infectious disease

Mental long-term conditions

Physical long-term conditions

Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5

Understand how workforce skills meet the demands of the population

Prevent

Enable

Assess

Plan

Treat

Rehabilitate

Relieve

Link

Unpaid adult social care workforce

Nurses

Dentists

Medical generalists

Medical specialists

Volunteer care and support workforce

Other workforce groups

Workforce groups Increasing concentration and experience

5 Skill levels

4

3

2

1

Super-specialist

Specialist

Generalist

Increasing length of training

Skill dimensions

Infographics to aid understanding

Learning disabilities

Oral health

Singular demand for service

Maternal and perinatal

Infectious disease

Mental long-term conditions

Physical long-term conditions

Demand sourcesMedical Specialist

Infographics to aid understanding

Learning disabilities

Oral health

Singular demand for service

Maternal and perinatal

Infectious disease

Mental long-term conditions

Physical long-term conditions

Demand sources

Super-specialist

Specialist

Generalist

Up-skilling targets

Midwife

Understand which solution will work best

Stress test your workforce plansWhich futures are the most challenging?What is the most effective way to meet future skills demand?Is it affordable and value of money?

Future demand for skillsSk

ill h

ours

/Yea

r (B

illio

ns)

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Time (Year)

Probability: 80% 100%Central estimate:

Big questions

Will the cost of meeting future health and care needs be affordable?Will this be value for money?What is the best mix of people, numbers and skills?Not forgetting the future is uncertain!

Rethinking workforce planning: Horizon 2035

Dr. Graham WillisHead of Research and Development, CfWI

Matt EdwardsHead of Horizon Scanning and International, CfWI