Review of safety in residential Review of safety in residential installations & the need for periodic installations & the need for periodic

inspectioninspection

A European PerspectiveA European Perspective

Michel Machiels, Hans De KeulenaerMichel Machiels, Hans De Keulenaer

Beyrouth, 4-Feb-02Beyrouth, 4-Feb-02

Slide 2of 26

OverviewOverview

Residential safetyResidential safety

• Market perspectiveMarket perspective

• Regulator perspectiveRegulator perspective

• Consumer perspectiveConsumer perspective

• Supply industry perspectiveSupply industry perspective Current regulation on periodic inspectionCurrent regulation on periodic inspection Proposal for best-practice regulationProposal for best-practice regulation

Slide 3of 26

Market perspectiveMarket perspectiveAge profile - Europe’s dwelling stockAge profile - Europe’s dwelling stock

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bel

gium U

K

Luxe

mbo

urg

Fra

nce

Ital

y

Sw

eden

Den

mar

k

Ex-

DD

R

Aus

tria

AV

ER

AG

E

Ger

man

y

Hun

gary

*

Pol

and*

Net

herl

ands

Spa

in

Por

tuga

l

Gre

ece

Irel

and

Fin

land

>19801971-1980

1946-1970

1919-1945<1919

Housing Built Post 1970

Housing Built Pre 1970

*G&P estimates

Slide 4of 26

COUNTRYTotal No.

Householdmillions

% ElectricalRenovation Rate

% Renovations SignificantlyContributing to Electrical Safety -

Numbers

France 28 3.5 0.35

Germany 36 3.4 0.26

Italy 27 2.4 0.23

Netherlands 7 4.1 0.33

Spain 17 1.5 0.15

UK 22 5.3 0.44

Hungary 4 1.7 0.15

Poland 13 2.0 0.13

Average 158 3.8 0.32

Market perspectiveMarket perspectiveRenovation rates - EuropeRenovation rates - Europe

Sources: National Statistical Agencies, DETR renovation data,Gorham & Partners survey 1998 (UK)

Slide 5of 26

Market perspectiveMarket perspectiveAverage penetration of 12 appliancesAverage penetration of 12 appliances

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year

# P

ow

er

Ap

plia

nc

es

/ h

om

e

+ 170%

July 4th 2000Source: Euromonitor, G&PGorham & Partners Ltd

Slide 6of 26

Regulator perspectiveRegulator perspectiveView on electrical safetyView on electrical safety

SAFETY LEVEL OF CURRENT HOUSING IN THE 8 COUNTRIES

55

61

6 22

25

3

14

55 28 17

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Safety Level

Renovation

Year Housing Built

% of Homes

DEFINITELY UNSAFE POSSIBLY UNSAFE

Housing Built pre-1970

Renovation 1970 - 1990

Housing Built 1970 - 1990

Renovation after 1990

SAFE

Slide 7of 26

Regulator perspectiveRegulator perspectiveElectrical firesElectrical fires

Sources: National Fire Statistics, Gorham & Partners calculations

NUMBER OF ELECTRICAL FIRES PER 1000 HOUSEHOLDS 1998

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

France

Germany

Hungary

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Spain

UK

Average for 8 countries

Slide 8of 26

CountryFatality

#/yrInjury requiring medical treatment

#/yr

France 122 3513

Germany 99 2848

Hungary 24 682

Italy 87 2517

Netherlands 9 284

Poland 53 1545

Spain 94 2726

UK 52 1511

Total 540 15626

Regulator perspectiveRegulator perspectiveInjuries from electrical firesInjuries from electrical fires

Source: Gorham & Partners calculations

Slide 9of 26

Consumer perspectiveConsumer perspectiveSurvey methodologySurvey methodology

Survey methodology:Survey methodology:• Street interviewsStreet interviews Ru (2,000)Ru (2,000)• Telephone interviewsTelephone interviews F (500), I (500)F (500), I (500)

TR (2,000)TR (2,000)• OmnibusOmnibus Bg,Cz,H,Pl,RoBg,Cz,H,Pl,Ro

(5,000)(5,000)• Visits by professionalVisits by professional Spain (2,000), Spain (2,000),

I (100)I (100)

• TotalTotal 14,000 interviews14,000 interviews10 countries10 countries

Q

U

A

L

I

T

Y

C

O

S

T

Q

U

A

N

T

I

T

Y

Slide 10of 26

Consumer perspectiveConsumer perspectiveSafety issues in the homeSafety issues in the home

Unearthed socketsUnearthed sockets DIY extensionsDIY extensions Bare conductorsBare conductors Experience shockExperience shock No 300 mA RCD No 300 mA RCD

protectionprotection No 30 mA RCD for No 30 mA RCD for

wet areaswet areas Loose socketsLoose sockets

Slide 11of 26

Consumer perspectiveConsumer perspectiveSafety issues in the home (cont’d)Safety issues in the home (cont’d)

No protection at allNo protection at all Over-rated circuit Over-rated circuit

breakersbreakers Extension cords Extension cords

under carpetunder carpet Hot socketsHot sockets Black burn marksBlack burn marks Loose contactsLoose contacts

Slide 12of 26

Customer perspectiveCustomer perspectiveChallenges with survey methodologyChallenges with survey methodology

Survey bias (except Omnibus)Survey bias (except Omnibus) Interpretation of questions (except Visits)Interpretation of questions (except Visits)

• by surveyorby surveyor• by surveyeeby surveyee

Best practice depends on configuration of Best practice depends on configuration of electricity grid & local conditionselectricity grid & local conditions• e.g. earthing, protectione.g. earthing, protection

No full agreement on best practiceNo full agreement on best practice• e.g. bondinge.g. bonding

Slide 13of 26

Consumer perspectiveConsumer perspectiveResultsResults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Franc

eIta

ly

Czech

Spain

Hunga

ry

Bulgar

ia

Poland

Russia

Roman

ia

Turke

y

% o

f d

wel

ling

s

UNSAFE

POSSIBLY UNSAFE

SAFE

Slide 14of 26

Consumer perspectiveConsumer perspectiveExample - Turkey Marmara regionExample - Turkey Marmara region

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

DIY

Indirect contact

Direct contact

Shock

Burn spots

Overrated breakers

Hot sockets

RCD wet areas

Earthing

Extension cords / carpet

Bonding

Sockets fixed

RCD mains

ProblemNo problemDon't know

Slide 15of 26

Consumer perspectiveConsumer perspectiveDemographics of electrical safetyDemographics of electrical safety

Old dwellingsOld dwellings are less safe than new onesare less safe than new ones Rented dwellingsRented dwellings are less safe than owner-are less safe than owner-

occupied dwellingsoccupied dwellings Dwellings occupied byDwellings occupied by low-income familieslow-income families

are less safe compared to middle & high are less safe compared to middle & high income familiesincome families

Slide 16of 26

Supply industry perspectiveSupply industry perspectiveThe business opportunityThe business opportunity

Both the regulator and customer Both the regulator and customer perspectives confirm over 50% unsafe perspectives confirm over 50% unsafe installationsinstallations

140 million dwellings * 50% * 1,500 € =140 million dwellings * 50% * 1,500 € =

• € € 105 billion105 billion Who will pay?Who will pay?

Slide 17of 26

Overview of regulationOverview of regulationElementsElements

Requirement for periodic inspectionRequirement for periodic inspection• against a modern code of practiceagainst a modern code of practice• inspection during the lifetime of the dwelling, and inspection during the lifetime of the dwelling, and

not just initiallynot just initially• enforcementenforcement• accredited inspectorsaccredited inspectors• certificationcertification

Slide 18of 26

Overview of regulationOverview of regulationCurrent systems for periodic inspectionCurrent systems for periodic inspection

Periodic inspection at a fixed time interval = Russia, Periodic inspection at a fixed time interval = Russia, PolandPoland

Inspection at time of transaction (sale, change of Inspection at time of transaction (sale, change of tenant) = UK (social housing only), Cztenant) = UK (social housing only), Cz

Compliance with modern code within a period of time = Compliance with modern code within a period of time = ItalyItaly

Inspection when performing renovation (requiring a Inspection when performing renovation (requiring a licence) = France, Spain (new)licence) = France, Spain (new)

Inspection when extending the meter = Belgium, SpainInspection when extending the meter = Belgium, Spain No regulation = Turkey, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, No regulation = Turkey, Denmark, Finland, Ireland,

NetherlandsNetherlands

Source: CENELEC BTTF95 survey, ECI

Slide 19of 26

Best practice regulationBest practice regulationItalian case studyItalian case study

Law 46/90:Law 46/90:• covers all technical installations in residential buildingscovers all technical installations in residential buildings• requirements to comply to law within 10 yearsrequirements to comply to law within 10 years• accompanied by fiscal incentiveaccompanied by fiscal incentive

Result:Result:• Burst in renovation activityBurst in renovation activity

Problems:Problems:• ControlControl• Criteria for complianceCriteria for compliance

Slide 20of 26

Best practice regulationBest practice regulationItalian case studyItalian case study

5 64 69

7.2% 92.8% 100.0%

17 1 59 77

22.1% 1.3% 76.6% 100.0%

50 2 72 124

40.3% 1.6% 58.1% 100.0%

148 21 3 79 251

59.0% 8.4% 1.2% 31.5% 100.0%

220 24 3 274 521

42.2% 4.6% .6% 52.6% 100.0%

Count

%

Count

%

Count

%

Count

%

Count

%

< 10 YRS

11 - 20 YRS

21 - 30 YRS

> 30 YRS

Age ofdwelling

Total

< 10 YRS 11-20 YRS 21-30 YRSNEVER

RENOVATED

Last renovation

Total

No regulationRegulation

(1990)

Slide 21of 26

Relation between type of regulation and Relation between type of regulation and safety survey outcomesafety survey outcome

# ‘unsafe’dwellings

Noregulation

Regulationfor periodicinspectionat fixedtimeinterval

Regulationwith user /consumertrigger

Graceperiodregulation& incentivescheme

<25% Italy (-3yrs) France Italy

25-50% Czech

50-75% Spain (old) Spain (new) Hungary

>75% Turkey PolandRussia

Slide 22of 26

Best practice regulationBest practice regulationRequirement for periodic inspectionRequirement for periodic inspection

Countries that do have a requirement forCountries that do have a requirement for periodic periodic inspectioninspection (every 5 or 10 years) have(every 5 or 10 years) have difficulty difficulty to enforceto enforce itit• e.g. Russia, Poland, Greecee.g. Russia, Poland, Greece

Statutory periodic inspection requires aStatutory periodic inspection requires a user / user / consumer oriented triggerconsumer oriented trigger to ensure that it is to ensure that it is carried outcarried out

Italian approachItalian approach has proven has proven effectiveeffective for raising for raising safety levels, but there is room for improvementsafety levels, but there is room for improvement

Slide 23of 26

ConclusionConclusionBest practice regulationBest practice regulation

> 50% of unsafe dwellings = € 105 billion > 50% of unsafe dwellings = € 105 billion out of which:out of which:• partially ‘unsafe’:partially ‘unsafe’:

– 10 years grace period to comply (€ 3-5 bi/yr)10 years grace period to comply (€ 3-5 bi/yr)– Combined with fiscal incentives & subsidies Combined with fiscal incentives & subsidies

(e.g. 50% owner, 25% gov, 25% tax)(e.g. 50% owner, 25% gov, 25% tax)

• partially ‘possibly unsafe’ partially ‘possibly unsafe’ – Transaction-oriented legislation: change of owner, Transaction-oriented legislation: change of owner,

tenant, renovation, extension of metertenant, renovation, extension of meter(costs ‘hidden’ in overall transaction, and covered for (costs ‘hidden’ in overall transaction, and covered for example by mortgage)example by mortgage)

Slide 25of 26

ConclusionConclusionNew dimensions justifying actionNew dimensions justifying action

Int’l initiatives (FISUEL, UIE, BTTF95, ECI) as Int’l initiatives (FISUEL, UIE, BTTF95, ECI) as vehicles to publicise the issue and promote best vehicles to publicise the issue and promote best practicepractice

Forum to bring together supply side (installers, Forum to bring together supply side (installers, distributors, manufacturers), standards bodies, distributors, manufacturers), standards bodies, inspectors, consumer side, fire protection, inspectors, consumer side, fire protection, legislatorslegislators• e.g. Barcelona workshop, Feb 22, 2002e.g. Barcelona workshop, Feb 22, 2002

Integrate promotion, regulation & inspection into a Integrate promotion, regulation & inspection into a single initiativesingle initiative

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ConclusionsConclusionsQuestionsQuestions

What should be the objective?What should be the objective? What’s the best approach?What’s the best approach? Who should be involved / lead?Who should be involved / lead? Have we sufficient information & tools?Have we sufficient information & tools?