Review of the NCEP production Suite:Recent Changes and Plans

Marine Modeling and Analysis BranchWaves Group

EMC/NCEPArun ChawlaWaves Team LeadMarine Modeling and Analysis BranchNOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMCArun.Chawla@NOAA.gov

WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE WEATHER AND OCEAN SERVICES BEGIN

NCEP Production Review 2014 2

Wind waves• Operational models running at NCEP

– Multi-1 global model.– Multi-2 global hurricane model.– 2 Great lakes NAM / NDFD– Ensemble Wave model

• In Development– Nearshore Wave Prediction System

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Global Wave model (Multi-1)• All grids upgraded to

ETOPO1 bathymetry• Mask files updated to

enhance coverage in regional 10 arc minute grids

• No physics changes but some differences in results close to coast due to changes in bathymetry

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Extended domains (black lines) in the regional grids

Multi_1 (contd.)

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Upgrades to Multi-1 (next year)

Physics package Upgrade : More wave energy in previous regions of negative bias

Extend grid domain to the North Pole by replacing regular Arctic grid with a curvilinear Arctic grid

12/3/2014

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Hurricane Wave model (Multi_2)

• Hurricane wave model upgraded to new physics package (already in global, great lakes and ensemble wave models)– Includes new packages for wave growth

dissipation (due to wave breaking) and swell dissipation

• Hurricane winds now provided by the HWRF models

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Multi_2 (contd.)

• Impact– Better representation of wave height at peak

storm– Faster response to Hurricanes (for both growth

and dissipation)– Better spectral representation, and consequently

better representation of storm wave arrival times• A 10% error in peak period ~ 35 min error for a 15 s

wave travelling 500 km

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Retrospective Forecasts (Hurricane Sandy)Multi_2 (contd.)

Black – New modelCyan – Ops

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f/fp

S/Sp

Frequency Spectra at buoy 41048

Sp, fp – Maximum spectral peak and location of spectral peak from data

More accurate representation of peak frequency leading to better estimates of storm arrival times

Multi_2 (contd.)

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Global Ensembles

• Upgraded physics package– New physics package now same in all wave modeling

systems• Increased spatial grid resolution from 1o x 1o to

0.5ox0.5o

• Changes to Initialization / cycling– More in line with the GEFS (for future coupling)– Has an impact on spread and accuracy– Conserves swell perturbations– Provides 80 members over a 24 Hr cycle

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Validation over a 2.5 month period

Ensembles (contd.)

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Tp (s

)Tp

(s)

Ensembles (contd.)

Retrospective runs during Hurricane Sandy

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Great Lakes Models

• Updated the grids– Higher resolution curvilinear grid – More accurate coastline

• Higher resolution 2.5 Km NAM smartinit winds• New ice concentrations

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New Grid

Effect of higher resolution grid

Strong westerlies

Oct 3rd 2014

NCEP Production Review 2014

Great Lakes (contd.)

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Resolution ~ 4 km Resolution ~ 2.5 km

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• Higher resolution winds– Current operations: 12km NAM– Upgrade: 2.5km from NAM 4km

Higher Resolution winds

NCEP Production Review 2014

Great Lakes (contd.)

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• Intake of new ice concetrations– NAM ice mask (from

NIC) is extremely conservative

– Large areas where there should be waves are masked out

– Solution:• NIC ice concentrations• Bob Grumbine’s

conditional climatology (whenever NIC fails…)

Ice Concentrations

NCEP Production Review 2014

Great Lakes (contd.)

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Nearshore Wave Prediction System(Under Development)

Max. coastal resolution = 4 arc min (7.5 km)

Current WW3 global grid mosaic

Desired nearshore application

Required nearshore resolution < 500 m

Motivation

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Nearshore Wave Prediction System at coastal forecast offices

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NWPS Architecture2 approaches

• Local (Original development)– Run locally (at WFOs), routinely/on-demand, using

SWAN or nearshore WWIII – Driven by forecaster-developed winds from GFE (AWIPS

II), and external sources (e.g. WWIII, RTOFS/ESTOFS).– Requires computational resources at local WFOs

• Remote (New development)– Run on NCEP resources– WFOs retain control on forcings / local features– Limited on demand capability

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NWPS

Additional wave output (NetCDF, HDF5, GRIB2)

SWAN

WWIII Boundary

Conditions

Water levels/CurrentsRTOFS/

ESTOFS/PSurge

Ext. winds, GFS/ECMWF/TCM

Other Input

WWIII

FC WindsFC Guidance Products

EDEX(Data Server)

CAVE(D2D, GFE)

NDFD (total field; partitions)

FTP/LDM

ADCIRC

CAVE: Common AWIPS Visualization EnvironmentEDEX: Environmental Data ExchangeLDM: Local Data Manager

GRIB2

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NWPS (contd.)

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On-demand implementation on WCOSSNew Architecture

NCEP/WCOSS

Puerto RicoAm. Samoa

Guam

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NWPS on WCOSS

SWANWW3 Boundary Conditions;

RTOFS Surface Currents;ESTOFS/P-Surge Water levels

WWIII

GFE winds; control files

FC guidance products

EDEX(Data Server)

CAVE(D2D, GFE)

AWIPS2

NDFD (total field; partitions)

ADCIRC

CAVE: Common AWIPS Visualization EnvironmentEDEX: Environmental Data ExchangeLDM: Local Data Manager

GRIB2LDM

via

HQ

SBN

(Staged on WCOSS)

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NWPS (contd.)

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WCOSS

Regional HQ

6 nodes reserved (96 compute cores)

WFO WFO

Satellite network (ouput)

data data

data

GRID fileDOMAIN fileCONTROL file

WFO

data

TAFB/OPC

Hurricane wave BCs

NCWCP

data

NWPS on-demand central computing

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WCOSS implementation schedule

Jul14

Aug14

Sep14

Oct14

Nov14

Dec14

Jan15

Feb15

Mar 15

Apr15

May15

Jun15

Finalize initial WCOSS development

Developer testing on WCOSS, incl. data upload, run triggeringInitial EE setup (NCO Support)

Code delivered to NCO

TIN issued; CCB approves parallel data feed; 30-day parallel testing at NCOIT testing at NCO

Management Briefing & implementationAWIPS2 build v14.4.1

12/3/2014

NWPS (contd.)