Revitalising Rainfed Agriculture in India

Dr. J.P. MishraAdviser Agriculture

NITI Aayog, New Delhi

•Shortage of water for7.5 to 10 months

•Wide spread N and Pdeficiencies along withmicronutrients

•Excessive runoff furtherdeteriorates soilnutrient status

•Mean annualtemperature >180C, rainfall exceedingevapo-transpiration 2to 4.5 months in a year

•Alfisols and Aridisols -abundant soil orders

Water Stressed Cropping/Livestock

0 20 40 60 80 100

Net Sown Area

Foodgrain Production

Population

Foodgrain Area

Coarse Cereals

Pulses

Oilseeds

Cotton

Rice

52

44

40

48

83

80

73

68

40

% Contribution

Water stressed areas provide maximum Protein & Fat

80

20

73

27

0 20 40 60 80 100

Rainfed

Irrigated

Rainfed

Irrigated

Puls

esO

ilsee

ds78

22

6436

7525

0 20 40 60 80 100

RainfedIrrigated

RainfedIrrigated

RainfedIrrigated

Cat

tleSh

eep

Goa

t

68

32

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Rainfed

Irrigated

Cot

ton

•Major domain forprotein and fatsupplements inIndian diet

•Leads in theproduction ofpulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, andlivestock

•Predominant cottonproducer-stronglinkage with textileindustry andemployment

Poverty among Farm Households45

.3

35.1

33.0

32.1

28.4

26.5

23.2

22.5

22.5

22.5

18.9

17.5

14.0

13.6

12.3

12.3

11.8

10.7

9.0

4.3

3.2

0.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

4

Very promising for future growth-needs overall systemic changes in production to delivery services, health and disease control and

management

Needs much higher investment for sustaining

the turn around in horticulture-quality

storage, cool chains, ripening

infrastructures-marketing

With current pace can achieve the cereals.

Pulses is difficult task-Needs technological

breakthrough for plant types and also NRM

5/2/2017 5

242.34

17.09

259.32

29.8

361.04

75.29

150.58

127.9

5.11

65.6

8.5

235

22

257

59

279

97

161

253

25

277

71

312

124

189

137.3

11.4

100

12.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cereals Pulses Foodgrains Oilseeds Sugarcane Fruits vegetables Milk Meat Egg Fish

Production 2011-12Demand 2016-17Demand 2020-21

Annual increase in demand at 1.3% forcereals, 3% for pulses, 3.5% for edibleoils, 3.3% for vegetables and 5% in fruits.

DEMAND - SUPPLY DYNAMICS

NEED A PARADIGM SHIFT

• Move from Commodity centric to an area-focussed approach• Investment in rainfed agriculture at ~Rs. 50,000/ha

• Knowledge-based Agriculture• Improved inputs, Diversification and R&D

• Farmers Centric Agriculture• FPOs, Agri marketing & warehouse receipts• Credit, finance and insurance, capacity building

• Industry-agriculture –farmer linkages• Market infrastructure, export opportunities, agribusiness

• Government a facilitator• Mission mode approach to enhance land and labour productivity

• Governance• Convergence matrix of programmatic interventions

MOVE FROM COMMODITY CENTRIC TO AN AREA-FOCUSSED APPROACH

India is water stressed. 52% of cropped area remains without irrigation and some regions are chronically water stressed yet:

•Currently, irrigation consumes 84% of the water (industry 12% and households 4%)

•Water use in irrigation in India is 2 to 4 times that in USA and China per unit of major crops

Share of canal in net irrigated area declined from 39.8 % to 23.6 %.

Groundwater sources increase from 28.7 % to a whopping 62.4 % between 1950-51 and 2012-13.

•In northwest, groundwater is over exploited•In the eastern states, substantial scope for harnessing groundwater remains

NITI Aayog, Government of India

Water and Irrigation: Issues

98.4

89.0

78.2

68.567.463.1

49.347.641.9

36.834.929.5

20.619.918.915.714.213.512.6

3.8

1.6

11.0

21.8

31.532.636.9

50.752.4

58.1

63.265.1

70.5

79.480.181.184.385.886.587.4

96.2

88.282.8

45.0

74.5

48.3

98.1

64.1

40.0

49.9

90.7

115.9

19.9

77.5

0.0

8.9

0.0

11.7

34.9

2.2 -0.6

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

PB HR UP BR DL

WB UK

ALL

IND

IA JK ML TR O

D HP AR NL

MN JH SK MZ

AS

% irrigated% unirrgated% of net irrgated area with more than one irrgation

21.7

72.2

39.6

50.146.0 43.3

55.8

26.1

8.4

31.1

67.674.9

80.2

29.8

46.6

21.9

50.7

134.6

58.5

126.8

170.3

5.3

51.5

17.9 19.5 22.112.7

30.9

8.32.9

8.012.7 15.6

9.54.3 0.5 1.6 1.8

24.7

1.5

17.7

27.8

21.5

17.2 16.8 16.3 15.913.9 13.8

11.9

8.7 7.96.2 5.3 4.7

3.6 3.0 2.41.0 0.8 0.2

-2.7

-14.6

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0AS U

PW

BM

H AP BR MP

OR NEH CG KR GJ TN JH KL JK UK RJ H

PH

R PB

Grou

ndw

ater

for

futu

re ir

riga

tion

(BCM

)

Grou

ndw

ater

dev

elop

men

t and

pro

duct

ion

% GW Dev Food crops Production (mt) GW for Future Irrigation (BCM)

Future Irrigation Opportunities

NITI Aayog, Government of India

168.2 mt 53.0 mt 75.1 mt

KNOWLEDGE-BASED AGRICULTURE

IMPROVED INPUTS, DIVERSIFICATION

AND R&D

Water Management: Opportunities

• Shift to Efficient Water Application Tools (EWATs) forconserving the water and raising productivity

• Water positive techniques- System of Rice Intensification andDirect Seeded to conserve water and raise productivity

• Divert investments on irrigation technologies andinfrastructure from subsidies to irrigation and electricity: offerfarmer groups a choice between the two

• Utilize MGNREGA for last mile connectivity and minorirrigation projects/irrigation tanks

• Complete the nearly complete major irrigation projects underPMKSY

• Utilize the irrigation potential already created- Prioritise CADAinvestments

• Specialised solution for chronically water stressed areas

•Though the availability of quality seed has increased, SRR remains low in the country•19-22 per cent in pulses

and below 30 per cent in paddy and wheat•Majority of farmers use

farm saved seed - many farmers do not distinguish between grain and seed• Sale of spurious seed in

the market•Private sector

participation is limited•No guidelines for pricing

of seed

Issues

NITI Aayog, Government of India

-6.1

05.8

0

-0.5

1.8 0

40.9

10.4 7.90.8 0

-7.0

6.0 7.0

-1.1-1.4

0

-4.6

63.9

26.619.8

13.87.4 5.0 4.5 3.2 0.7 -1.4-2.5

-9.5-10.6-11.4-13.0-15.9-19.8-20.6-25.6

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0 Deviation from desired SRR (%) in wheat and Rice

Wheat Rice

-29.48-26.02

-14.49

1.41 2.61

-28.25

-9.42

-21.73

-10.84-7.51

12

-27.32-31.71

-17.24-13.65

-16.41

-6.09

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

OD JH BR All India UP WB

Deviation from desired SRR(%) in pulses

Urd Mung Arhar Gram

Seeds, Fertilizer & Pesticides

Accelerate SRR to reach 33% in HYVs and 100% in hybrids.

• Revitalize seed chain with focus on replacing varieties older than ten years by new ones.

• Incentivise public sector and facilitate private sector to raise quality seed production to generate adequate supply.

Promote skill in seed production at village level

Facilitate private investment in R&D of seed and its promotion

NITI Aayog, Government of India

Seeds, Fertilizer & Pesticides

NPK use is skewed towards. Realign norms for fertilizer use according to products such as urea, neem-coated urea, sulphur-coated urea and urea briquette.

Inform farmer through soil health card on optimal use of fertilizer by soil type, crop and water usage.

Encourage the farmers to better calibrate the balance as well as level across different fertilizers

NITI Aayog, Government of India

Farm Mechanization: Issues• Small land holdings, high capital and low credit

worthiness of farmers • Inadequate rural infrastructural services • Availability of durable, light weight and low cost farm

implements

Farm Mechanization: Opportunities • Scale up the custom-hiring centre and replicate the best

practices of the States;• Reorient public extension agencies from varieties and

inputs to farm mechanization, RCTs and post harvest activities

NITI Aayog, Government of India

Farm Mechanization

New Technologies: GM The technology promises

• Higher productivity • Lower use of fertilizers, weedicides and pesticides

• Tolerance against drought, salinity and other abioticstresses.

• Fortification of grains and edible oils with vitamin A andmodified fatty acids

World’s leading scientific bodies like the US NationalAcademy of Sciences, the UK’s Royal Society, theGerman Risk Assessment Agency, the EuropeanAcademy of Science, the Canadian Royal Society, theNew Zealand Royal Society, and India’s seven scienceacademies have all declared that GM crops are safe

16

As a part of its strategy to bring a SecondGreen Revolution, GM crops needs to bepromoted with appropriate safeguards

• Recognizing the general sensitivity to permittingmultinationals, proceed with domestically sourced GMseeds only.

• According to the evidence presented by the leading IndianResearch Organizations, a large number of India sourcedcandidates for field trials and eventual commercializationalready exist. These may provide a good starting point.

17

New Technologies: GM

NEW TECHNOLOGIES: PRECISION FARMING

Options Include

• Precision farming• System of Rice Intensification• Nano-technology• Hi-tech Horticulture and

Animal HusbandryIntroduce and encouragejudiciously, taking into accountthe cost-benefit factors. Thecriterion in most cases should becommercial viability withoutsubsidies

18

Turmeric at Bhavani Block of Erode (2009-10)

Shift to High Value Commodities

Issues • With rising incomes, demand side factors are highly favourable for

diversification towards high value horticultural, dairy, fisheries, poultry andlivestock.

• But infrastructure, institutions and public policy are not very favourabletowards the transition in most states.

Recommendations• Strengthen through public support the livestock disease surveillance, control

and health infrastructure• Expand cold storage facilities• Provide market finance to farmers• Facilitate the development of food processing industry, which will create

demand at lucrative prices for high value commodities.

Hi-Tech Polyhouse

Use of Energy• Energy inputs to Agri. now1.84 kw per ha, this needs to raised 2.2

kw per ha by 2020.

• Priority given to harnessing non-conventional and renewableresources of energy.

Livestock and Fisheries• Induction of high yielding breeds, improvements in animal

healthcare, feed, fodder, drinkingwater, shelter, institutions, promotion of irrigated fodder etc.

• Small reservoirs, tanks, water harvesting ponds created underMGNREGA have potential for fisheries development.

Agri.-Research & Extension• SAUs, KVK could be the centres of knowledge

development, management and transmission to users.

•Essential to bring about better synergy between SAUs and ICAR.

FARMERS CENTRIC AGRICULTURE

Farmer Producer Organisations •FPOs are emerging as useful mechanisms

• aggregation of inputs/outputs and optimal deployment ofresources

• access to mainstream capital for improvements inproduction system assets

• risk reduction through financial measures, croppingchoices; and

• creates opportunity to scale the quality demanding urbanconsumer and agro-processing industry.

•RBI will have to include financing to FPOs in its prioritysector

Remunerative PricesMSP: Issues • MSP procurement limited to a few crops and regions

• Persistent demands for higher MSP and ever-rising procurement, which isinfeasible in view of fiscal constraints

• Subsidized sales of cereals under PDS in regions where there is no procurementdivert part of the demand from local farmers, lowering the price the latter receive

MSP: Opportunities• Extending MSP and procurement to more crops and regions is infeasible both

fiscally and administratively

• Limit MSP-based procurement to building buffer stock and stock for price stabilization

• For all else, we can level the playing field across regions and crops by replacing MSP by deficiency payments amounting to 10 percent of the market price, which is fiscally feasible and WTO compliant

• This may be initially tried on a pilot basis in cotton in select districts

24

Farmer Distress and ReliefIssue

• A mechanism is required to bring quick relief to farmers impacted directly or indirectly by natural disasters.

Opportunities• Conduct the relief transparently as an emergency social program. Create a

database that identifies farmers and corresponding Aadhar seeded bankaccounts. In case of a natural disaster, transparently identified by weatherdata and a set of weather related criteria, transfer a minimum specified sumof cash immediately into these accounts.

• Appropriate avenues to create jobs for those farmers interested in exitingfarming. Farm-oriented processing and small-scale industries offer two suchavenues.

• Implement PMFBY to deal with distress situations. Evolve a mechanism forthe provision of a diversified set of crop insurance products by a diverse setof insurer firms.

INDUSTRY-AGRICULTURE FARMER LINKAGES

Industry-Agriculture-Farmer Linkages

Industry enhance investment

• imparting knowledge with the use of latest informationtechnologies

• knowledge institutions which are engaged in agricultureresearch

• facilitate developing appropriate new technologies combiningfarmers wisdom and traditional knowledge

• Developing Infrastructure Projects related to secondaryagriculture –processing and value addition

GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR

Utilize the Underutilized•Mission-mode programme for Rainfed Areas

•Convergence of schemes/programmes.

•Eastern states and other rain-fed regions suffer from low productivity anddisproportionately greater incidence of droughts, floods and cyclones thatcan destroy standing crops.

• With procurement concentrated in regions with well-developed irrigation and PDS bringing subsidized grain to eastern states, farmers also face depressed prices in the local markets.

• abiotic stress -drought, flood, submergence and salinity

• 11.7 m ha rice fallows that can be used through crop Intensification (short duration pulses and oilseeds in winters)

• Tribal dominated areas of Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh -Organic bydefault -offer good scope for organic farming.

• Considerable scope for groundwater development in the region though withthe important qualification that high arsenic levels may disqualify certainareas

ENHANCING PUBLIC & PRIVATE INVESTMENTS

(CONVERGENCES OF RESOURCES)

•Convergence within agriculture–NFSM, RKVY, PMKSY

(micro-irrigation), NMOOP, NMAET•Convergence between MoRD, Agri, MoFPI, WR

–MGNREGA, PMKSY, RKVY, CAD-WM•Overarching structure for Programme Administration

• Matrix for convergence -activities, responsibilities, scale and outcome

Rationalizing Allocation Critical For Capital Formation

•Crop centric investment under RKVY•Post harvest management got the least

– Critical for future growth and Make in India initiative

•Many important sub-sectors allocated less

– capacity of project preparation and absorption

– Can it be linked with contribution to State Agri-GDP?

15.3

25.3

20.8

16.217.5

18.7

16.0

6.88.1

49.4

34.4

46.0 45.242.8 43.2

34.9

70.5 70.4

6.85.7

4.65.8

3.54.9 3.9

2.1 2.4

18.1

12.0

19.8

16.9

11.4

15.0

4.23.0

6.56.59.0

6.38.7

12.3

9.4

21.4

11.2

7.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 XI Plan 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

% A

lloca

tion

RKVY: allocation to different sub-scetors in agriculture

Livestock Crop PHM Micro-irrigation Horticulture

Distribution of Resources

•More than 20%projects toLivestock sector•Very thindistribution ofresources in manyprojects

– Impact on scale and outcome

– Effect on outreach

36.5 37.4 36.6

30.228.4

32.6

26.423.9

26.2 25.627.4

25.5 26.127.8

25.6 26.4 26.929.0

26.4 27.3

5.8 6.04.5

6.84.2

5.43.0

4.4 3.8 3.73.5 4.4 4.2 4.6 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.25.9 5.0

12.911.3 10.8

12.414.3

12.5

16.8 17.214.8

16.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Per c

ent p

roje

cts

RKVY: projects sanctioned in varoious subsectors

Livestock Crop PHM Micro-irrigation Horticulture

Critical Analytical Pathways-A MISSING LINK

•Production Growth(Based on the information-Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand,Karnataka, MP, Odisha and

Puducherry)

–Over 51% projects in < Rs 1 crore category emanated without SAP

–More than 75% projects in >20 crore emanated from SAP

–Non-SAP/DAP projects prevailed over SAP-DAP projects in terms of allocation

39.5

65.667.0

68.4

75.7

48.6

44.2

53.250.5

53.1

60.5

34.433.0

31.6

24.3

51.4

55.8

46.849.5

46.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

< 1 Crore

1-5 crore

5-10 crore

10-20 crore

> 20 Crore

< 1 Crore

1-5 crore

5-10 crore

10-20 crore

> 20 Crore

Per c

ent

Projects/ Allocation

Projects with SAP Projects without SAP

58.05

67.3

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

<1 1 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 20

>20 Total <1 1 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 20

>20 Total

Per c

ent

Number/allocation

Infarstructure

Projects with SAP Projects without SAP

Critical Analytical Pathways-A MISSING LINK

•Infrastructure (Based on the information-Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, Karnataka, MP, Odisha and Puducherry)

– Over 65% projects in < Rs 1 crore category emanated without SAP

– More than 56% projects and 65% allocation in >20 crore category emanated from non-SAP route

– Non-SAP/DAP projects prevailed over SAP-DAP projects in terms of allocation

– Need to reversed for optimum utilization of capital formation

NEED A STRONG DATA BASE FOR RAINFED AGRICULTURE

Generate separate data for rainfed farming- over50% of our geographies unreported

• rainfed farming and farmers• irrigation systems• seed scenario• infrastructure

Separate estimates for

• rainfed crops production and productivity• Livestock and their products