R. Rameshformer Director, SunShot

Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies

Impacting the Energy Landscape

Subsidy-free solar electricity

75% cost reduction by end of the decade

5-6c/kWh at utility-scale

Global Competitiveness

Fundamental Premise for SunShot…

SunShot Program Structure

Photovoltaics (PV)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

DOESunShot

Soft BOSSystems Integration

Distributed Generation - on-site or near point of use -

Centralized Generation - large users or utilities -

9

Polysilicon prices fell from 2008 to 2009 as polysilicon production capacity caught up with demand

*Q3 ‘11 through 9/16/11Sources: : For 2007-2011 Actual Module Selling Price: Q1’07 to Q2’09: Barclays Capital (12/14/09) and Stifel Nicolaus (5/5/11), Q3’09 onward: UBS Securities, LLC(2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/29/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11, 6/3/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11). For Analyst Estimates 2008-10: analyst reports, Barclays (5/1/09,11/15/10); Deutsche Bank (5/27/08, 1/23/09, 5/6/10, 1/5/11); Lazard (11/4/08, 4/2/09); Stifel Nicolaus(10/6/09, 4/8/10); UBS(8/22/10, 3/8/11)

May-08

Nov-08Jan-09

Apr-09May-09

Oct-09Apr-10 May-10Aug-10Oct-10

Jan-11Mar-11

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China c-Si (left axis)

May-08

Polysilicon Spot (right axis)

Analyst Estimates (date of estimate) (left axis)

Global Forces Cause Fundamental Shifts in Market Dynamics

10

Pathway to SunShot – Residential PV

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System Price2010

Power Electronics

Cost Reductions

BOS Hardware Soft BOS

Module Efficiency Improvements

Module Manufacturing

$0.42$0.46

$2.69

$2.15

$0.30$0.27

$2.04

$0.59

$1.02$0.12$0.19$0.65

$0.54

$5.71/W

$1.50/W

SunShot Target

Growth in CSP and PV Capacity

• 14% of U.S. electricity needs by 2030 and 27% by 2050.• A combination of evolutionary and revolutionary technological

changes.• Reaching the goal will require significant manufacturing scale-up

11

13

People : THE Key

AdamCohen

PhD, Marylandphysics

KatherineCrowleyPhD, Rice

math

LennyTinker

PhD, Princetonchemistry

DiogenesPlacencia

PhD, Arizonachemistry

AimeeBailey

PhD, Imperialphysics

AlexPolizzotti

BS, Pomonachemistry

The SunShot Fellows

$Watt

∝ Manufacturing CostEfficiency η∝ JSC ⋅VOC ⋅FF

Barriers-based investments:Cell and module efficiency

31%18% 15% 13% 12% 10%

2%

43%

25%20% 20% 17%

12%8%

63%

29% 29% 29% 29%20%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

CPV (3J) c‐Si mc‐Si CIGS CdTe a‐Si OPV

Efficiency

Theoretical Maximum

Laboratory Record (cell)

Typical Production (Module)

16

Significant role for Basic Science

• Reaching theoretical efficiencies : CdTe, CIGS• Plasmonics• Intermediate Bandgap Solar Cells• Quantum Dots and Nanowires• Organic PV : Model Experiments• Earth abundant oxides and sulfides• Photons to Thermochemical Storage• Exceeding the Shockley-Queisser limit• Advanced light trapping• Biomimetic PV concepts• Novel approaches for charge splitting• HT Thermal/physical/chemical properties of

salts, fluids

TIMEP

ER

FOR

MA

NC

E

17

Overcoming Fundamental Barriers : CdTe, CIGS, CZTS

Parameter

CdTe (poly on glass)

GaAs (thin film single‐crystal)

Eg at 302 K (eV) 1.49 1.43

Voc (V) 0.85 1.11FF (%) 75 85.9

Jsc (mA/cm2) 26 29.4Efficiency (%) 17 28

Source: Solar Cell Efficiency tables (version 38), Prog. in PV, 2011, vol. 19, pp. 565-72

Challenging Current Notions

Glass

TCO + Buffer

n ‐ CdS

p ‐ CdTe

Back Contact

Glass

Is CdS/CdTe an ideal interface?

• What is role of Grain boundaries, interfaces, dislocations, point defects

• Does single crystal have higher minority carrier lifetime?• What is doping limit of CdTe?

What is a model system for CdTe to demonstrate technology potential?

How do you make controlled surfaces for good contacts?

25% cell demonstration by 

2015

Materials Growth

‐ Bulk crystal ‐ Thin film epitaxial‐ Thin film with controlled GBs‐ Surface Science‐ Interface control

Probe‐materials & electro‐optics

‐ Point defects‐ ⊥s, SFs, GBs, etc.‐ Interfaces‐ Bandgap and defect energies Models & 

calculations

‐ Ab‐initio‐ Device 3d models

Integration

‐ Device process‐ Device test‐ Efficiency demonstration 

proof of concept

Enabling “Quantum Leaps” in Technology through Science

Solicitation is now open

PV Variability : A Fundamental Problem–20 MW PV Plant in NV

ForecastingStorage

A. Mills, et al,” IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 33-41, 2011.

Examples of Current Storage Technologies

Current batteries : ~300-500$/kWh : Can we go to 20-30 $/kWh ??Huge potential for Impact Clear need for basic science: Electrochemistry, materials discovery, understanding redoxchemistry…Interface science : on a beam line, in a electron microscope, …Photochemical, Thermochemical approaches

Ultra Low Cost Energy Storage

• Capture Solar or Thermal Energy

• Store in Chemical/Structural/ Electronic/ Phase Trans

• Other approaches• Solid state systems

• Release Energy into Electrical/Magnetic /Thermal Cycle

• Return to Original State

Explore reversible, controllable phase transformations using sunlight …

Photochemical and Thermochemical Storage

Goal:Establish process to usher basic science developed within BES/NSF into applied technologies programs.

Sources of Basic Energy Research:– Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and

Biosciences (CSGB - BES)– Materials Science and Engineering

(MSE - BES)– Scientific User Facilities (SUF - BES)– Materials Research (DMR - NSF)– Chemistry (CHE - NSF)

BRIDGE – Bridging Research Interactions through Collaborative Development Grants in Energy

Systems & Grid Integration

27

28

Plug-and-Play Solar

Future (Smart) Home

• Smart outlet• Smart circuit• Smart breaker panel• Smart appliances• Home area network (HAN)

Future (Smart) Grid

• Distributed generation• Two-way power flow• Communication and

control• Rich energy information

and transactions• Microgrid

Future (Smart) City

• Integrated grid and city planning

Utility Control Center

Vision : PV as an ApplianceNo permitting Easy installation Seamless grid integration

29

GEARED - Grid Engineers for Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment

Problem:Electric Grid workforce is aging – mass retirements in 5-15 yearsLack of skilled personnel conflicts with need for a new “smart grid”Center for Energy Workforce Development estimates the need for 92,000 new grid workers, including ~18,000 engineers

Goal:Establish University programs to train a network of grid engineering STEM professionals , ready for a 21st century renewable economy

30

From Science to Technology to Productization

$-

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Mill

ions

SunShot IncubatorDOE funding as Catalyst for Private Investment

Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (2012) 31

Follow on Private Investment

$17.5M DOE Investment

Months after Incubator Funding

32

US excels at Innovation – But lags in manufacturing of innovation

US76%

ROW24%

VC & PE Investment in Solar (2010)

$2.3B

Source: Bloomberg NEF (12/08, 3/6/09, 4/9/10, 4/16/10, 11/8/10, & 3/16/11)$44B

Debt Finance in Solar (2010)

US9%

Rest of World91%

Debt Finance in Solar (2010)

33

Manufacturing

“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry.”

- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel

PV Manufacturing Initiative (PVMI)

Part ISolving pre‐competitive problems 

common across industry (at pilot line manufacturing R&D)

Part IIInnovative domestic manufacturing 

processes at scaleRegional Test Centers

3 University and Industry ConsortiaUp to $125M over 5 years3 to 1 cost leveragingTools, materials, processes integration

Up to $50M over 2 yearsMinimum 3 to 1 cost leveraging

“Even if you paid nothing for the hardware, you'd still pay thousands of dollars to install a residential solar power system.”

- Secretary Chu

Soft Cost : The Critical Issue

~$6.50

~$5.50

~$4.00

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BOS-Soft Costs Will Determine the Future of Solar!!

Permitting, Inspection and Interconnection

Customer Acquisition

Installation

Financing

More Paperwork = Higher CostUnlike physical phenomena, there are no fundamental limits to bureaucracy!!

Rooftop Solar Challenge

CA NJ

=CA WI

La Mirada, CA Oceanside, CA

≠

≠

Uniform processes

The Problem • 18,000+ local jurisdictions with different PV

permitting requirements• 5,000+ utilities implementing interconnection

standards and net metering programs• 50 states developing interconnection

standards and net metering rules

The Solution The Challenge invests in 22 teams comprised of jurisdictions, utilities, and local stakeholders to develop the same requirements and processes across large geographic areas (500,000+ population). The Challenge also measures each team’s progress to identify approaches that work.

Ad Lucem Basic R&D for Market Transformation Pathways

Overview• Basic R&D incorporating the human

aspect of our energy challenges can spur social, economic, and behavioral innovation

• Tools from complexity science allows us to probe such issues

Potential Research Topics• Information and technology diffusion on social networks• Mechanisms underlying the rate of technological progress• Characterizing spatiotemporal adoption patterns• Effective and efficient communication strategies• Strengthening feedback processes between adopters and innovators

The spread of obesity in a large social network N. A. Christakis et al., N. Engl. J. Med. 357 (2007)

RECOMMENDATION 4-4: DOE, along with NSF, should initiate a multidisciplinary social science research program to examine the U.S. energy technology innovation ecosystem, including its actors, functions, processes, and outcomes. This research should be fully integrated into DOE’s energy research and applied programs.

We remain the most innovative country in the world ... but “Invented in America” is not

good enough to guarantee our prosperity.

America has the opportunity to lead the world in clean energy technologies and provide a

foundation for our future prosperity.

“Invented in America, Made in America,Sold World-wide”

Element Abundance Annual Production (Tons)

1) O 46.6% 108

2) Si 27.7% 3.88x106 (5000)

3) Al 8.17% 1.5x107

4) Fe 5.22% 7.16x108

5) Ca 4.11% 1.12x108 (CaO)

6) Na 2.51% 2x105

7) Mg 2.34 3.5x105

8) K 2.17 200

9) Ti 0.57% 9.9x104

10) H 0.14%

Element Abundance Annual Production (Tons)

11) P 0.11 1.53x108

12) Mn 0.098 6.22x106

13) C 0.074 8.6x109

14)F 0.059

15)Ba 0.044 6x106

16) S 0.041 5.4x107

17) Sr 0.037 1.37x105

18) Zr 0.018 7x103

19) W 0.016 4.51x104

20) V 0.014 7x103

Top 10 most widely produced (Millions of tons):•C (8,600), Fe(716), P (153), Ca (112), S (54), Cu (6.45), Mn (6.22), Ba (6.0), Zn (5.02), Si (5.02, only 0.005 electronic grade)

Rock forming elements – found in Earth’s crust, typically in oxide form… Fossil Fuel-like PV

Twenty Most Abundant Elements in the Earth’s Upper Crust

Materials advancement- Dirt Cheap Solar energy

Overview of SINBERISE : Berkeley‐ Singapore Research Institute for Sustainable Energy

I. Photon to electron

Bandgap controlled Heterostructures

Hierarchic structures for Thin Absorbers

Electrodes

Overcoming minority carrier diffusion limits

II. Photon to liquid fuel

Semiconductor nanostructures

Semiconductor-molecular catalyst hybrids

Metal organic framework

Bi-functional molecular catalysts

III. Integrated PV / PEC device

Device architecture and integration

Optical enhancement strategies such as plasmonics

From Fundamental Research…

…To Commercialization…

Materials advancement

• Heterostructures based on materials such as oxides, sulfides• Band gap tuning and doping of oxide semiconductors

Form factor development

• 3D hierarchical architectures• Nanocasting and Bio-inspired structures• ITO, FTO replacement

Fundamental studies

• Minority carrier studies• Trap passivation strategies

Photons to electrons

Carbon-based photonics and photovoltaics•Leverages Graphene Research Center at NUS• Flexible, wearable, solar cells• Interfacing and stacking of 2D crystals for 3D architectures• Multi-phase assembly of nanostructures on graphene

• Fundamental science and engineering•Discovery of new functional structures

•Physics and chemistry of fuel production

•Transitioning science to technology•Solar Fuel generator with > 1%

efficiency•Use abundant materials

•Scalable manufacturing processes•Energy density matching methanol

Photon to Liquid Fuel

Solar fuel approaches• Organic‐Inorganic hybrids and semiconductor nanowires• Nanostructures• Metal‐organic frameworks• Hydrogenase enzyme based systems• Comparative studies 

Creating a New Solar Eco‐System 

ConsortiumManagement Organization

National Lab

Utilities

State EDB’sFinancial

Institutions

Module Company

Component Company

Academia

PV Installer

Equipment Supplier

FederalPrograms

State PUC’sPermitting, Inspectors