Ricardo Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21 OECD side event)

  Turning plans into achievement: the art of INDC implementation

  Chris Dodwell  Director, International Projects

  COP21 Side Event, OECD Pavilion  2nd December 2015

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Five pillars of INDC Implementation


Pillar 2 – Long-term mitigation strategies


Pillar 3 – Integrated Adaptation Planning


Pillar 4 – Climate finance frameworks


Pillar 5 – Measurement, Reporting and Verification systems


Pillar 1 – Political Governance & Effective Institutions

For more information

Chris DodwellDirector, International Projects & Business Development Ricardo Energy & Environment 30 Eastbourne TerraceLondonM: +44 7435 751 778

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Stephen M King’uyuNational Climate Change Secretariat

Ministry of Environment & Natural Resources [email protected]/[email protected]

Implementing the Paris ClimateAgreement: Kenya’s Experience

Ricardo-AEA Side EventEU Pavilion - Le Bourget, Paris

02 Dec 2015

v

v1. Introduction: Kenya’s INDC

• Kenya was among the first African Parties to submit an INDC to the UNFCCC Secretariat.

• The INDC responds to Kenya's unique national circumstances:– More than 80% of the country’s landmass is ASAL.– Highly vulnerable to climate change - Increased frequency and

intensity of extreme climate events.– Impacts already being experienced in different sectors.– Droughts and floods which cause economic losses estimated at 3% of

the country’s GDP; etc.

02Dec201512

Kenya’s INDC contains both mitigation and adaptation components:• In line with Decision 1/CP.20.• Highlighting Kenya's deliberate resolve to address adaptation and

mitigation on equal footing.

SMK/MENR© 2015

v

v1. Kenya’s INDC (2)The INDC: Is in line with Vision2030, Kenya’s blueprint for development. Is anchored on the Constitution, (draft) National Climate

Change Framework Policy and Bill (2014). Builds on the foundation laid in the development of the

NCCAP 2013-2017 and NAP – coordination/MRV. Recognises that:

Every stakeholder has a role in its implementation. Individual and corporate action - at all levels is required to address

climate change. All sectors are vulnerable – strategic sector adaptation actions.

02Dec201513 SMK/MENR© 2015

v

v2. Stakeholders

INDC

Mwananchi

PrivateSector

AcademiaGovernme

nt

Media

CSOs

Development

Partners

02Dec201514

Important to include every imaginable stakeholder!

SMK/MENR© 2015

2. NCCAP Components & output streams

02Dec2015

1. Low Carbon Climate Resilient Development Pathway

2. Enabling Policy and Regulatory Framework

3. ADAPTATION 4. MITIGATION

9. C

oord

inat

ion

& M

anag

emen

t

5. National Technology ActionPlan

6. National Performance &

Benefit Measurement

7. Knowledge Management &

Capacity Development

8. Finance ENABLERS

15 SMK/MENR© 2015

v

vCoordination

02Dec201516

National Government Sectoral Agencies (MDAs)

Mainstreaming at National level

County Governments

County Gov. Sectoral Agencies (Mainstreaming at

County level)

County Assemblies

MAINSTREAMING OF CLIMATE CHANGE Council of Governors

NEMAMonitor & Enforce

Compliance

NCCC(Chair = President)To provide overarching national climate

change coordination mechanism

ParliamentEnabling

Legislation

Climate Change Directorate• Principal government agency on national climate

change actions and operational coordination• To serve as the Secretariat to NCCC

Ministry (Climate Change Affairs)CS = Secretary to NCCC

SMK/MENR© 2015

17 02Dec2015

Thank you!

SMK/MENR© 2015

Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Bangladesh

Dr. Kamal Uddin Ahmed Secretary

Ministry of Environment and Forests

Bangladesh Context • Bangladesh is a highly climate vulnerable country and

expose to severe climate threats.• The costs of climate change could amount to an annual

loss of 2% of GDP by 2050 and 9.4% of GDP by 2100.• The future costs of adapting to climate change will be

much higher than they are today• Bangladesh accounts for only 0.35% of global

emissions• With this insignificant CO2 emission Bangladesh wants

to play its part in the global collective action

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

20192020

20212022

20232024

20252026

20272028

20292030

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA PROJECTIONS

Bangladesh Developing Countries Average

Year

Tons

of C

O2

per c

apita

Nationally-driven process

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

20300

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

GNI PER CAPITA PROJECTIONS

Bangladesh - GNI/capita (WB) Middle Income Threshold (GoB)

Year

GNI p

er C

apita

(cur

rent

US$

)

Middle-income country status by 2021(Prospective Plan)

Stay below average per capita emission of Developing Countries

(PM Statement in New York)

Source: Projections from World Bank Databank Source: Projections from World Bank Databank

Bangladesh INDC

• INDC builds on existing strategies and programmes e.g. BCCSAP, Power Sector Master Plan, National Sustainable Development Strategy, and forthcoming NAP

• Bangladesh considered both Mitigation and Adaptation in its INDC

• Adaptation- as urgent and immediate action to address adverse impacts of climate change

• Mitigation- emission reduction of CO2 to achieve 1.5 degree or well below 2°C global goal of temperature rise by 2100.

1. National context

2. Mitigation

3. Adaptation

4. INDC implementation

5. Support for INDC

implementation

The structure of the INDC

Under ‘business-as-usual’, GHG emissions set to increase by 118% by 2030 from 2015 levels

2. Mitigation – BAU

Power

Transport

Industry (

energy)

Households

Commercial

Agricultu

re (energy)

Waste

Agricultu

re (non-energy)

Industry (

non-energy)

F-gases

0

20

40

60

80

100

120GHG Emissions (MtCO2e) in 2015 and 2030

2015 2030 BAU

MODELLED GHG EMISSIONS TO 2030 – BUSINESS AS USUAL

• Quantified contribution only covers power, transport and industry sectors

• Unconditional contribution = 5% below BAU for those sectors (12 MtCO2e by 2030)

• Conditional contribution = 15% below BAU for those sectors (36 MtCO2e by 2030 )

Mitigation

MODELLED GHG EMISSIONS TO 2030 – CONSIDERED MITIGATION

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

GHG emissions (MtCO2e) to 2030 in Power, Transport, Industry (Energy Demand)

Conditional Contribution Unconditional ContributionBAU Historic trends

15%5%

Estimated costs of key mitigation measuresMitigation measure Estimated investment

required (billion USD, 2011-2030)

Switching to 100% super-critical coal power generation 16.50Developing utility-scale solar energy 1.30Scaling up wind energy .60Repowering steam turbine with CCGT .63Expanding the Solar Homes Programme 1.20Other solar Solar Irrigations Pumps .60

Solar Mini-grids .25Solar Nano-grids .27Pico-solar .10

Scaling up biomass production from sugar .20Building an Elevated Express Highways in Dhaka for decongestion of the main urban traffic arteries

2.65

Dhaka mass rapid transit system 2.70

Adaptation

• The primary goal for adaptation is to protect the population, enhance their adaptive capacity and livelihood options, and to protect the overall development of the country in its stride for economic progress and wellbeing of the people.

• Over the last three decades, the Government of Bangladesh has invested over $10 billion (at constant 2007 prices) to make the country more climate resilient and less vulnerable to natural disasters.

Estimated costs of key adaptation measures

Adaptation measure Estimated investment required (billion USD, 2015-2030)

Food security and livelihood and health protection (incl. water security)

8

Comprehensive disaster management 10Salinity intrusion and coastal protection 3River flood and erosion protection 6Building climate resilient infrastructure 5Rural electrification 3Urban resilience 3Ecosystem based adaptation (incl. forestry co-management)

2.5

Community based conservation of wetlands and coastal areas

1

Policy and institutional capacity building 0.5

Next Steps: INDC Implementation

• The submission of the INDCs should be seen as a first step, rather than a final one. It is envisaged that INDCs will be reviewed and updated on a regular basis

• In Bangladesh, INDC implementation will be taken forward by existing governance arrangements of the government of Bangladesh.

INDC Implementation Implementation of INDC will start with the

following key tasks • Carrying out a review of Bangladesh’s current

climate finance landscape and support needs and the international funding landscape

• Produce recommendations on an appropriate climate finance strategy for Bangladesh.

• Appropriate strategy for both mitigation and adaptation technology

INDC Implementation ……

• Listing potential mitigation interventions that could be studied in more detail and developed into NAMAs

• Carrying out a gap analysis of existing data sharing and reporting structures and processes as well as the appropriate form and structure of a national MRV system.

• Set out a clear roadmap and timetable for actions across the key elements of INDC implementation

Thank you

Lebanon’s INDC & MRV Considerations

Vahakn Kabakian Climate Change Portfolio Manager

December 2, 2015 OECD Workspace (Hall 3, Room 7)

Le Bourget, Paris, France

Lebanon: current situation

INC submission – 1999SNC submission – 2011BUR submission – expected Dec 2014TNC submission – expected Dec 2016But also now with INDC

Structure of Lebanon‘s INDC

1. Introduction2. National Circumstances3. Adaptation4. Mitigation5. Fair and ambitious6. Implementation

Mitigation Targets

Unconditional

Target

A reduction of 15% compared to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030.

15% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is generated by renewable energy sources

A 3% reduction in power demand through energy-efficiency measures in 2030 compared to the demand under the Business-As-Usual scenario

Conditional Target

A reduction of 30% compared to the BAU scenario in 2030.

20% of the power and heat demand in 2030 is covered by renewable energy sources

A 10% reduction in 2030 in power demand through energy-efficiency measures compared to the demand under the BAU scenario

Development of the mitigation targets

Mitigation potentials and targets in the INDC

BAU scenario and emission trajectories under the mitigation scenarios applying mitigation targets stated in the INDC:- Unconditional scenario: 15%

by 2030- Conditional scenario: 30%

by 2030

Transport• Unconditional:

• Share of person-kilometres driven annual using public transport remains at 36% by 2030. Actions include improving the bus system in the Greater Beirut Area

• Conditional: • Share of person-kilometres driven annual using public transport

increases to 48% by 2030. Achieved through infrastructure projects, including improving the bus system in the Greater Beirut Area, introduction of a bus rapid transit system and revitalization of the railway system.

• A share of 20% fuel efficient vehicles is to be achieved by 2030: incentivisation activities, e.g. scrappage programmes

Waste• Both scenarios: A waste

to energy plant with a capacity of 1000 t/day is operational by 2030

• Unconditional:• A recycling rate of 25%

is achieved by 2030• 51% of municipal

wastewater is treated by 2030

• Conditional:• A recycling rate of 30% is achieved by 2030• 70% of municipal wastewater is treated by 2030• The share of wastewater treatment could even be higher if

everything goes according to plan

Agriculture and Forestry• 40 million trees

programme• Unconditional: 50%

of the trees can be planted by 2030

• Conditional: 65% of the trees can be planted by 2030

• Forest Management Plan

• Forest Fire Fighting Strategy

Energy• Refurbishment, replacement

and extension of conventional power generation capacities and fuel switch to natural gas as laid down in the 2010 Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector.

• Energy efficiency measures reducing energy demand in line with the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2016-2020 (NEEAP)

• Unconditional: 3% energy savings compared to BAU in 2030

• Conditional: 10% energy savings compared to BAU in 2030

• Use of renewable energy (RE) sources in line with the Renewable Energy Action Plan 2016-2020 (REAP)

• 12% of power and heat demand supplied through renewable energy sources in 2020 (NEEAP)

• Unconditional: 15% supplied through RE in 2030 under the unconditional scenario

• Conditional: 20% supplied through RE in 2030 under the conditional scenario

2030 Target

s!

Challenges and Constraints

No institutional arrangements for sharing data between institutionsNo breakdown of sectoral data (energy)No involvement of private sectorAvailability of ad-hoc, scattered and conflicting data from various sources and for different purposes (population, energy consumption of generators)Mistrust in data exchangeNo existing network/channel to manage flow of information

Source of

emissions

Part of the

solution

MRV system• INDC implementation planning (e.g., MRV)• Implementation of mitigation and

adaptation actions• Regular updating of the INDC (~5 years)

Plan

Imple ment

Review

Update

MRV structure

MRV structure

MOU between the Environment and Industry Ministries

Update database of industrial establishmentsAdd production, raw material use and energy consumption data to reporting requirementsSystematically share database on a yearly basisMoI

Improved knowledge of the industrial sector in Lebanon

MoE Data needed for GHG

inventory systematically available/progress on INDC

BENEFITS

Cooperation with Environment and Finance Ministries

MoFinance – online reporting for: Value added tax Income tax declarationCategorised (industries/institutional/commercial/etc.)Represents a real opportunity on using existing system by adding few reporting requirements

MRV structure

Thank You

[email protected]/climatechange @climatechangelb

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