Food systems: evolution, historical and current impacts, disease emergence - forward thinking

Food Security Forum 2014: Good food, good health: delivering the

benefits of food security in Australia and beyond University of Sydney 17th March

Richard Kock Professor Wildlife Health & Emerging Diseases Dept. Pathology & Pathobiology rkock@rvc.ac.uk

Summary of presentation

Agricultural development pathways & food systems Agricultural impact on human, animal &

ecosystems health including disease emergence risks.

Science & society’s shift from linear to systems

thinking - the One Health approach. Need for improved metrics & shift in focus on

agricultural development

Summary

• Historical background to animal domestication • Intensification of agricultural systems and its

influence on pathogen & disease emergence • Evolution of biosecurity concept in response to

economic impacts of disease in industrialised livestock systems

• Conceptual model showing balance between food security and ecosystem disservices

• Achieving a better balance • Conclusions

World Population 1750 to 1999

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999

Asia Africa Europe Latin America and Caribbean Northern America Oceania

Source: United Nations cited on http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/

Medicines

Agriculture

Technology

Genes

+ 1 BILLION EVERY DECADE

Demographic Transition~ 2050?

Biological success story over a mere 250 years or is it? Most of the impact on environment has occurred in the last 50 years as human & domestic animal population expanded exponentially.. Time to count the cost?

1975 2001

1975 2003

75% ALL AGRICULTURAL LAND IS FOR FEED CROP AND LIVESTOCK Foley 2005

Food and environment

115% increase in production on agricultural land with only 8% increase in land conversion 24% of vegetated land has undergone soil degradation 70% “Blue water” consumed by agriculture - used to be 90%

The Future of Food and Farming (2011) Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London.

‘Golden years’ of wild food receding, although 1-2 billion still depend on it

Wild food’s replacement

Growth in Aquaculture

(Duarte et al 2009)

Commoditisation of natural resources..

Humanity has shifted from moving to food ..

Karesh et al 2007

To food moving to humanity

Unintended consequences of the evolution of human food systems…

Daniel Lieberman

5 top risks of premature mortality: Obesity Inactivity Smoking High Blood Glucose High Blood Pressure Cheap Food! Sugar Sat Fats Lack of Exercise

J.Rushton

Interactions between food systems and other spheres

UCL SDG Working Group 2014

Global trends in Mortality 1990-2020

Category A communicable maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders Category B non-communicable disease Category C injury

Mill

ions

of p

eopl

e

Murray and Lopez 1997

?

WHO and Nat Museum Medicine Washington

Principle macro-drivers of disease emergence Broad changes in ecology are now

associated with pathogen emergence but little research has been completed on the mechanisms. This is a vital area for future research (Jones et al 2013). The main drivers are anthropogenic: development & landscape change, globalisation, intensification & Industrialisation of the food system

Urbanisation and Disease More than 25% of U.S. land development has been in just the last 15 years EIDs in urban settings: leptospirosis, plague, food born disease, dengue fever, SARS, zoonotic avian influenzas,.. …

Development dramatically altering the landscape • Destruction

of habitats for roads, settlement, farming & industry (Ewing et al 2010 Global Footprint Network)

• Yellow Fever • Malaria • Hendra • Nipah • Ebola • HIV • Leishmania • Fasciola

• Loss of heterogeneity in the landscape (new but fewer niches) - biodiversity decline & change in community composition (Roche & Guegan 2011; Clay et al 2009; Randolph &Dobson 2012).

• More intense interface – opportunity for spread & co-evolution of parasites with humans, domestic animals & few wildlife species (Despommier et al 2006; Lloyd-Smith et al 2009).

• Ecological resilience theory – tipping points & thresholds are being reached e.g. climate system (Revolution 2009)

Changing landscape - new niches, drivers.

Farming systems: Numbers and density

H5N1

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

Duc

k M

eat P

rodu

ctio

n (T

ons)

China Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Thailand and Vietnam

• In 2007, over 21 billion food animals

were produced for over 6 billion people

• By 2020 the demand for animal protein up by 50% mainly in developing countries requiring over 30 billion animals

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1960 2000 2050

Human(billion)Cattle

Buffalo

SmalllivestockPigs

Poultry

H7N9)

Intensification Homogenisation Loss of landscape heterogeneity Devaluation of animal & human life

Tompkins et al 2011

Poverty and dependency

•Japanese Encephalitis virus persistence linked to amplification in pig units (Erlanger et al., 2009), •Nipah (Daszak et al., 2006) virus emergence linked to amplification in pig industry in Malaysia (Graham et al., 2008, Barrette et al 2009) , •Last mammalian pandemic influenza virus HIN1 (Irvine & Brown 2009) emergence from swine industry in Mexico, H5N1 H7N9 from intenstive poultry systems in South East Asia •Campylobacteriosis, brucellosis, tuberculosis associated with intensification of livestock systems •Hepatitis E linked to swine products (Garbuglia et al., 2013, Aggarwal & Naik, 2009 ). •Human handling of pigs leads to increased Ecoli excretion (Callaway et al., 2006)

Pathogen factory.. Industrial poultry?

RISK

Newcastles

HPAI Mareks

Salmonella Campylobacter

New resistant & virulent strains (HPAI, Marek’s, ND (Dugan et al 2008, Maclea et al 2007

Miller et al., 2010)

Amplification of pathogen in aberrant host (HPAI) Suarez 2000, Ito et al 2001, Souris et al 2010

Vaccines, antimicrobials, pesticides

Biocontaminants – salmonella, Campylobacter (Hermans et al 2011 , Altekreuse et al., 1997)

Investment in Infectious Diseases

Investment in Non Communicable Disease

Global trends in Mortality 1990-2020

Category A communicable maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders Category B non-communicable disease Category C injury

Mill

ions

of p

eopl

e

Murray and Lopez 1997

Attention shift to structural One Health to reduce disease risks..

Structural crisis, fundamental unsustainability, & imbalances in current natural & social global systems producing conditions for emergence of diseases

Increasing pressures within & between human environments, natural ecosystems & agricultures, selecting for specific diseases

Disease spreading among animals and humans

Crisis Response

Wallace et al in press 2014

Why Ecosystems Health? Ecological processes are buffering against disease

Ecosystem services Clean air and water Climate buffer Natural waste processing (decomposers) Pathogen dilution (community, biodiversity effects) Pathogen buffering Dietary diversity, nutrition Immunocompetence Genetic Health

Why be concerned about circuits of capital and disease emergence

Production cycles: • Degrade ecological resilience. • Categorise humans & animals into markets & commodities. • Globalise transport of goods people livestock & pathogens.

Epidemiological interventions: • Denaturise, land grab, deforest, fence. • Select for highly capitalised biosecure agriculture - industrial

intensified genetic monocultures that in themselves give rise to new pathogens & their globalisation.

• Use of antimicrobials essential to intensive food systems, leading to rapid, amplifying antimicrobial resistance developing & spreading.

AHI: animal health institute; UCS: union of concerned scientists

Rise in antimicrobial resistance

How will we measure sustainable agriculture and progress in food safety & security?

Currently: • Poor metrics generally in MDG especially on poverty but

also on food insecurity – too much emphasis on calories & subsidised grain industries – grain dumping.

• Improving metrics on nutrition – better to use stunting and wasting rather than traditionally weight – better indicators of acute and chronic under-nutrition.

• No real targets in agriculture – market led…e.g. no agriculture food system MDGs met.

• Little attention to wild or natural food sources other than governance & concerns over sustainability

• Little attention to emerging disease risks.

Suggested changes to health/food systems metrics o Integrate food security & nutrition/health

issues. o Go beyond metrics on food availability, access

& utilisation to include stability measures & disease risk.

o Assess social consequences of agribusiness & capitalised food systems (e.g. marginalisation of small holders & rural in favour of urban communities).

o Include poor nutrition & over-nutrition measures.

Key Changes Needed in Health, Agricultural and Food Systems Thinking

Better governance, equity, sovereignty,

infrastructure, finance, systems

change, new values, ideas,

Education in general & specifically to

improve health (self-help), agriculture practice & reduce

consumption & waste

Plan agriculture for a reducing population & absence of fossil

fuels

Climate Change

Water issues

Biodiversity ecosystems

Thanks to: Prof Robyn Alders FVM & the Food Forum & Political Ecology Grouping

at University of Sydney Prof. Jonathan Rushton & Dr Barbara Haesler – LIDC/LCIRAH &

Sustainable Food Systems thematic research group RVC Dr Jeff Waage – LIDC and Sustainable Development thematic research

group UCL Prof Dirk Pfeiffer Ecosystems Health Research Group RVC Dr Rob Wallace Institute of Global Studies University of Minnesota, &

Structural One Health Research Grouping

Acknowledgements

Lecture Dedicated to Prof Declan McKeever who passed away February 2014 - former Head of the RVC Pathology Department