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Senior Vice President, Finance Richard McPhail 2018 Raymond James Conference 1
Transcript

December 6, 2017Senior Vice President, FinanceRichard McPhail

2018 Raymond James Conference

1

2

Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measurements

Certain statements contained in today’s presentations constitute "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may relate to, among other things, the demand for our products and services; net sales growth; comparable store sales; effects of competition; state of the economy; state of the residential construction, housing and home improvement markets; state of the credit markets, including mortgages, home equityloans and consumer credit; demand for credit offerings; inventory and in-stock positions; implementation of store, interconnected retail, supply chain and technology initiatives; management of relationships with our suppliers and vendors; the impact and expected outcome of investigations, inquiries, claims and litigation; issues related to the payment methods we accept; continuation of share repurchase programs; net earnings performance; earnings per share; dividend targets; capital allocation and expenditures; liquidity; return on invested capital; expense leverage; stock-based compensation expense; commodity price inflation and deflation; the ability to issue debt on terms and at rates acceptable to us; the effect of accounting charges; the effect of adopting certain accounting standards; the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017; store openings and closures; guidance for fiscal 2018 and beyond; financial outlook; and the integration of acquired companies into our organization and the ability to recognize the anticipated synergies and benefits of those acquisitions. These forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and current assumptions, expectations and projections about future events, and actual results could differ materially from our expectations and projections. You should not rely on our forward-looking statements as they speak only as of the date hereof, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as may be required by law. Additional information regarding risks and uncertainties is described in Item 1A, "Risk Factors," and elsewhere in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for our fiscal year ended January 29, 2017 and our subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.

Today’s presentations are also supplemented with certain non-GAAP financial measures. We believe these non-GAAP financial measures better enable management and investors to understand and analyze our performance. However, this supplemental information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP measures. Reconciliations of the supplemental information to the comparable GAAP measures can be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.homedepot.com.

22

Fiscal 2017 Results

Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market and Fiscal 2018 Guidance

Company Initiatives and Long-term Targets

Discussion Overview

3

13.0% Earnings Per Share Growth in 2017

Fiscal 2017 Results

4

($ Millions USD, except per share data)

FY 2017 FY 2016 V%Sales $100,904 $94,595 6.7%

Comp Sales 6.8% 5.6%

Gross Profit $34,356 $32,313 6.3%

Gross Profit Margin 34.05% 34.16% (11) bps

Total Operating Expenses $19,675 $18,886 4.2%

Operating Profit $14,681 $13,427 9.3%

Operating Profit Margin 14.55% 14.19% 36 bps

Net Earnings $8,630 $7,957 8.5%

Diluted Earnings Per Share $7.29 $6.45 13.0%

Discussion Overview

Fiscal 2017 Results

Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market and Fiscal 2018 Guidance

Company Initiatives and Long-term Targets

5

Our View of the Economy

Real U.S. GDP is expected to grow, supported by improved job market and higher consumer spending

Drivers of home improvement related spending expected to trend positively and support economic growth

Anticipating favorable economic conditions in Canada & Mexico

6

Real U.S. GDP is Expected to Grow, Making This the Longest Economic Recovery in History

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Hist.), Composite average from various sources (Est.)

Real U.S. GDP (Year Over Year Percentage Change)

2.5%

1.6%

2.2%

1.7%

2.6% 2.9%

1.5%

2.3%

2.7%

2.2% 2.1%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Average: 2.3%

8

Drivers of Home Improvement Spend

8

Housing TurnoverAge of Housing

Stock

Increases DemandDrives Spending Both

Pre And Post Sale

Demands Ongoing Repairs

And Major Repairs

Impact on HI

Spend

Recent

Impact

Expected

Future Impact

Acceleration

Home Price

Appreciation

Supports Incremental

Investments

Continued

Appreciation

Stays At

Current Rate

Forward

ViewPer Unit Spend

Increases

Household

Formation

Household Formation Growing

9

Household Formation Percentage of Young Adults Living at Home

32%

30%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17E

20

18E

20

19E

20

20E

Young Adults Living at Home Long-term Avg.

Source: US Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics (Est.), Pew Research Center, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Internal analysis

1.9

1.3

0.9 0.9

1.6

1.41.3

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18E

20

19E

20

20E

Change Ann. Avg. Households (MM) 60-year Avg. (MM)

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Value of Home Equity ($tn) Single-Family Mortgage Debt ($tn)

Home Price Appreciation and Value of the Housing Stock

10

Home Price Appreciation Value of Housing Stock and Home Equity

14.2%

-9.5%

9.6%

5.9%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Source: Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, Federal Reserve Board

$10.0tn

$14.2tn

$9.8tn

$6.3tn

$24.2tn

125% increase in

U.S. home equity

since 2011

Inventory Constraints and High Affordability Should Drive Home Price Appreciation

11

Source: National Association of Realtors, Moody’s Economy.com

Months of Supply Affordability

11.0 11.4

3.5

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Mos. Supply (Existing Homes) Healthy Balance

107.9

198.8

158.5

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Affordability Index Equilibrium Long-term Avg.

Aging Housing Stock Creates AdditionalDemand for Projects

12

Age of Housing Stock Home Age Spend per House

1995 2005 2016 2020E

0-9 17% 15% 8% 6%

10-19 18% 15% 14% 13%

20-29 17% 16% 13% 13%

30-39 14% 15% 14% 14%

>40 33% 40% 51% 54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

40+ yrs 30-39 yrs 20-29 yrs 10-19 yrs 0-9 yrs

$

$

$$

$$

$$$

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Favorable Trends in Home Improvement Expected to Continue

13

Average Spend per Large

Home Improvement ProjectRemodeling Index

Source: NAHB, John Burns Real Estate Consulting

$11.4

2016

$9.2

2012

$8.2

11%

2006

-19%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

NAHB Remodeling Index Equilibrium

60

$ in thousands

14

Fiscal 2018 Guidance1)

1) All guidance based on GAAP; includes 53rd week

(As of February 20, 2018)

Sales growth ~6.5% (53rd week adding ~$1.6 billion in sales)

Comp store sales growth ~5.0% (based on 52-week comparison)

New store openings 3 new stores

Operating margin ~14.5%

Diluted EPS growth$9.31, or an increase of ~28% (53rd week

contributing ~19 cents)

Share repurchases Targeting $4 billion

Fiscal 2017 Results

Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing Market and Fiscal 2018 Guidance

Company Initiatives and Long-term Targets

Discussion Overview

15

HD Must Continue to Keep Pace with Changing Environment

Retail Customers Expect More

16

Personalized Experiences

SeamlessCheckout

ImprovedDelivery

17

Strategic Investments for the Future

(1) Investments: Capital and Expense, excludes incremental depreciation

2018 – 2020 Investments(1) ($ in billions)

BAU

Investment

Supply

Chain

IT /

Online

Stores5.0

0.6

1.8

0.8

2.9

Other

New Stores

0.8

0.6

Supply Chain

IT

Other

New Stores

0.2

1.7

Stores2.4

$5.7B

$11.1B

TargetBAU

18

Investing in Stores & Associates

19

Investing in Product & Innovation

20

Investing in Personalized Experiences

Takeaway Bar

21

Investing in Pro & Services

22

Investing in Supply Chain & Delivery

Vendors

DC Network

(Bulk / Stocking / Flow)

Direct Fulfi l lment Centers

Stores

Upstream

Leverage our Competitive Advantage

Customers

Downstream

Build a Competitive Advantage

Productivity is Our Virtuous Cycle

23

Cost of

Goods Sold

Operating

Expenses

Continued Focus on Productivity

One Home Depot

Enhancing the Customer Experience, Investing for the Future, Creating Value

$ in Billions

24

Sales Operating Margin ROIC

~14.6%

2020T20172020T

$101B

2017

~34.2%

2020T2017

~$120B ~15.0% ~40%+

~$115B

~14.4%


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