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PopulusRisky Business – Predicting the 2015 General Election
May 2014
The Signal & the NoisePublished National Opinion Polls GE2010 to date
May 10
July 10
August
10
October 1
0
November 1
0
January
11
March 11
April 11
June 11
August
11
Septe
mber 11
November 1
1
January
12
Febru
ary 12
April 12
June 12
July 12
Septe
mber 12
October 1
2
December 1
2
Febru
ary 13
March 13
May 13
July 13
August
13
October 1
3
December 1
3
January
14
March 14
May 14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
VAT TO 20% LOCALS 13OMNISHAMBLESEUROS &
LOCALS 14
Local Elections: National Equivalent Vote ShareThrasher & Rawlings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
UKIP European Election v General Election PerformanceGB vote share
16%
2%
17%
3%
28%
?
2004 v 2005 2009 v 2010 2014 v 2015
Composition of UKIP European Election VoteLord Ashcroft Post European Election Poll (1200 UKIP voters)
52%
51%
0.15
0.21
0.18
0.11
0.1
0.14
2010 GE Vote
2015 Vot-ing Inten-
tion
Meanwhile in the marginalsLord Ashcroft Marginal Seats Poll (26,000 voters)
9% 22% 31% 13% 15% 9%
Tend to be older, more traditional voters who dislike the social & cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the worse.
ComfortableNostalgia
CosmopolitanCritics
Generally younger, more secular & urban-
based worried about growing inequality & the general direction the country is going
in.
OptimisticContentment
Confident, comfortable & usually on higher incomes
they are prudent & tolerant but think Britain is a soft
touch.
Many are serial strugglers; angry & alienated they feel little or no stake in the country or that anyone stands up for them.
Long-termDespair
Hard-PressedAnxiety
Pessimistic & insecure, these people want more help from government &
resent competition for that help particularly from new
comers.
Often coping rather than comfortable, they hope rather than expect things to get better.
CalmPersistence
A Different Way of Viewing the British ElectorateThe Portrait of Political Britain
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable Nostalgia
Comfortable NostalgiaComfortable
Nostalgia
LIB DEMS LABOURCONSER-VATIVES
Comfortable Nostalgia
Optimistic Contentment
Calm Per-sistence
Hard-pressed Anxiety
Long-term Despair
Cosmopolitan Critics
Party share of popular vote
Segm
ent s
hare
of p
arty
vot
eThe 2010 Voting coalitions
Base: All (4,088)
The Pollsters’ Nightmare The Eric Morecambe scenario
• PLAYING ALL THE RIGHT NOTES …
Predicting all parties’ vote shares correctly within the margin of error+/- 3%
• JUST NOT NECESSARILY IN THE RIGHT ORDER
Actual Order Predicted Order
CONS 37% 1st 35% 2nd
LAB 35% 2nd 37% 1st
UKIP 10% 4th 12% 3rd
LD 12% 3rd 10% 4th
Predictions
• Conservatives will be largest party in terms of votes
• Labour will end up as largest party in terms of seats
• Liberal democrats will end up with at least 13% vote share
• UKIP will end up with single figures vote share but with an MP
= POTENTIAL POLLSTERS’ DELIGHT: 2 GENERAL ELECTIONS IN THE SAME FINANCIAL YEAR
PopulusRisky Business – Predicting the 2015 General Election
May 2014