Date post: | 06-Aug-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | vinayak-kanvinde |
View: | 3 times |
Download: | 0 times |
YOUR LOGO
Indian Asset markets – mid year 2015 review and Outlook FY16
Right Horizons PMS
For private circulation only
Agenda / Table of contents
A mid year 2015 review of the Indian asset markets1
There is a pause in the current bull market…2
The opinion is divided on the market direction3
Get ready to be overwhelmed!
YOUR LOGOPage � 2
The opinion is divided on the market direction3
The market valuation and targets for FY164
Pay heed – the investment cycle is sacrosanct!5
Right Horizons PMS – Keeping the head down!6
For private circulation only
2015 has been a washout so far...� Equities has barely scratched the return
graph
- Runaway rally in 2014 calendar and absence of on-
ground action in the corporate sectors have taken a toll
- Global events have always had impact and past 6
months had negative global news – FED rate hike,
Grexit, China slowdown, Euro worries et el
- TTM valuations have remained at mid-high range and
this has put a lid to higher index levels
A mid year 2015 review of the Indian asset markets1
-1.00%
1.00%
3.00%
5.00%
Asset return in 2015#
in India
YOUR LOGO
this has put a lid to higher index levels
� Bonds / Debt securities have returned lack
luster returns despite moderate rate-cut on
the belief that rate cuts have been slower
than warranted.
� Gold continues to perform badly and comes
as no surprise. This is due to lack of
contagion type of worries in the near future
� Real estate projects continued to remain
stalled, deliveries slowed considerably and
prices are showing signs of softnessPage � 3
For private circulation only
-3.00%
Equities -Nifty
Equities - CNX Mid
Cap
Bond - Short Term
Bond -Long Term (GILT)
Gold - ETF
Real Estate -
Tier I# YTD ending June 25th 2015`
There is a pause in the current bull market…2
Phases of stagnancy in a bull market should be used to increase exposure
YOUR LOGOPage � 4For private circulation only
2015 so far is an excellent period of stagnancy and so should be used to increase exposure to Indian equities
2015 so far is an excellent period of stagnancy and so should be used to increase exposure to Indian equities
The macro situation opinion appears divided, or is it?3
White Black
YOUR LOGOPage � 5
For private circulation only
The Big Question – Grexit. So what ?3
YOUR LOGOPage � 6
For private circulation only
Facts on Greece:GDP: USD 297Bn rel. est, (51st Position)Population: 1 Crore; Debt to GDP – 160%.
Greece is too insignificant on the world or EU stage to cause a major economic damage, except raise a global contagion fear like 2008. However, on a standalone basis larger EU members can take a write-down and move on. It can, at best become a local European headache in the next 3 years.
The Sensex valuation and market outlook for FY164
� S&P BSE SENSEX Basic EPS for FY14 & FY15 were largely stagnant.
YOUR LOGOPage � 7
For private circulation only
� S&P BSE SENSEX Basic EPS for FY14 & FY15 were largely stagnant.
� We believe good monsoon and expected industrial recovery in certain sectors
could improve overall earnings in FY16, an estimated growth of 16%-18%
� BSE IT index could underperform against the market due to EUR decline
against INR; however, the impact would not be significant. Auto, Engg & Cap
Goods and Banking would get the direct benefit of economic recovery
� At the moderate P/E band of 15-22x, we believe that the upside for SENSEX
could be 34100, while the downside is protected at 23300.
Valuation range offers comfort.4
YOUR LOGOPage � 8
For private circulation only
PAY Heed - the investment cycle is sacrosanct!5
Higher Interest rates
Higher Savings
Low Money Supply
Higher Corporate profits
Rising Inflation
Loss of purchasing power
Asset Market
BUY Real Estate
YOUR LOGOPage � 9
For private circulation only
Lower investments
Fall in consumption
Lower Investments
Fall in Inflation
Fall in Interest rates
Investments pick up
Higher Money Supply
Increase in Consumption
Market Cycle
BUY Fixed Income
BUY Equities
Right Horizons PMS portfolios – wealth creation vehicles6
Portfolio Strategy
Nifty Plus FlexicapCapital Protection
Super Value
Fixed Income
ObjectiveLong term Wealth
creation
Long term weath
creation
Lower Capital
Volatility
Provide for high
capital
appreciation
Provide for
Inflation beating
returns
Predominantly invests in
Equities
• Nifty Index stocks
• BSE 200 stocks
Equities
•BSE 500 stocks
Fixed Income securities
• Listed securities
(80%)
• Equity Indices
Equities
• Mid-cap
Equities
Fixed Income Securities
• 100%
listed/Unlisted
Fixed income
securities
YOUR LOGOPage � 10
For private circulation only
• Equity Indices securities
Recommended Holding Horizon
> 18 months > 30 months 24 months >36 months 12 months
Portfolio StrategyBUY & Hold; Weight
Management
BUY & Hold;
Thesis Driven
BUY & Hold;
Trading Driven
Active
Strategy;
Bottom Up
BUY & Hold;
Risk Level Medium Medium Low High Low to Medium
Minimum Strategy Size1 INR 1million INR 1million INR 1million INR 1million INR 1million
1 Each PMS account shall be a minimum of INR25,00,000 set up value
Right Horizons PMS portfolios – performance6
1 Year 2 YearsSince
Inception
RH NiftyPlus Portfolio 13.1% 29.5% 23.1%
CNX Nifty Index 11.9% 22.5% 18.2%
RH Flexicap Portfolio 18.2% 28.9% 18.3%
CNX 500 Index 13.4% 25.9% 17.0%
YOUR LOGOPage � 11
For private circulation only
All time frames based on June 27 2015 data; Inception dates vary with respect to the
different benchmarks adopted by the portfolios
CNX 500 Index 13.4% 25.9% 17.0%
RH Super Value (Mid & Small Cap) Portfolio
24.6% 42.0% 26.1%
CNX Midcap Index 20.8% 35.8% 22.2%
RH Capital Protection Portfolio
10.0% 13.0% 13.0%
G-SEC Index 6.6% 5.0% 6.0%
DisclaimerThe information contained herein has been obtained from reports secured from third parties, publicly available sources and
Right Horizons, its affiliates, subsidiaries and/or Group companies take no responsibilities – express or implied for
inaccuracies contained herein.
This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. Though dissemination to all intended recipients is
simultaneous, not all intended recipients may receive this document at the same time. This document is neither an offer nor
solicitation for an offer to buy and/or sell any securities mentioned herein and/or official confirmation of any transaction.
This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be, and must not be taken as, the sole basis for an
investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document
should make such investigation as he deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation, including the merits and risks
involved, for investment in the securities referred to in this document and should consult his own advisors to determine the
merits and risks of such investment.
The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. This document has been prepared on the
basis of information obtained from publicly available, accessible resources. Right Horizons has not independently verified all
YOUR LOGOPage � 12
For private circulation only
basis of information obtained from publicly available, accessible resources. Right Horizons has not independently verified all
the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to
accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinion contained in this document.
The information given in this document is as of the date of this document and there can be no assurance that future results
or events will be consistent with this information. Though Right Horizons endeavors to update the information contained
herein on reasonable basis, Right Horizons, its associate companies, their directors, employees, agents or representatives
(“Right Horizons and its affiliates”) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be
regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent us from doing so.
Right Horizons and its affiliates expressly disclaim any and all liabilities that may arise from information, error or omission in
this connection. Right Horizons and its affiliates shall not be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or
consequential, including lost revenue or lost profits, which may arise from or in connection with the use of this document.
This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This document and/or any
portion thereof may not be duplicated in any form and/or reproduced or redistributed without the prior written consent of
Right Horizons.
Questions?
YOUR LOGOPage � 13
Reach us:[email protected]+91 80 4120 9582+91 22 4100 2018
For private circulation only