August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
MARKET ASSESSMENT UPDATE
Rios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, California
2August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
CONTACT INFORMATIONThis market analysis was prepared by Meyers Research, a market research and consulting firm specializing in the realestate industry. It has been commissioned by CalAtlantic Homes.
Peter Dennehy served as Project Director and oversaw all aspects of this assignment. Alexis Wilmot managed theengagement on a day-to-day basis. Follow-up questions should be directed to Peter Dennehy at (858) 381-4380 [email protected].
OBJECTIVECalAtlantic is evaluating the development of a +/-300 to 400-unit master planned community on +/-600 acres just southof Interstate 8 in the Lakeside area of East San Diego County. The General Plan for the area allows for +/-300 units, butadditional units may be available under various approval scenarios. The land is currently used as an avocado farm andthe current owner would like to maintain some growing operations on the site and also investigate the feasibility of aprivate health club, resort, winery or similar facility, potentially as a joint-use facility with the new housing on the site. Thekey objective is to provide an update on pricing and absorption of an Age Qualified (“AQ”) product development scenario(using three product templates that CalAtlantic developed at the Auberge at Del Sur project).
LIMITING CONDITIONSCalAtlantic Homes is responsible for representations about its development plans, marketing expectations and fordisclosure of any significant information that might affect the ultimate realization of the projected results.
There will usually be differences between projected and actual results because events and circumstances frequently donot occur as expected, and the differences may be material.
We have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our report.
Payment of any and all of our fees and expenses is not in any way contingent upon any factor other than our providingservices related to this report.
3August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Recommendations & Conclusions Rios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
4August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Aerial View and Hypothetical Site PlanThe aerial below represents the boundaries of Rios Canyon Ranch, which entails approximately 600 acres on the south side of theInterstate 8, just south of Lakeside and east of the City El Cajon, in the El Cajon 92021 zip code. The site plan below indicatescurrently assumed development areas (oriented north with views towards Lakeside and Blossom Valley, significant open spaceareas) – it is not depicting the AQ product plan. We assumed higher density products in lower areas, SFD homes in ridgeline areas.
LAKESIDE
EL CAJON
CREST
ALPINEBLOSSOM VALLEY
5August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
The updated Meyers pricing recommendations assume no added special taxes (total tax rate of 1.21%) and $250 per month HOA.The options and upgrades are estimated at 6% for the two smaller products, and 6.5% for the 6,000 square foot lots. Meyersanticipates that the that the best premium opportunities would be available along the ridgeline areas, and that the largest lots wouldbe placed here. Premium revenue for the cluster product is estimated at 1% of base price ($4,950 per unit), while the 4,000 SF lotsaverage 2.5% ($14,500) and the largest 6,000 SF lots are at 4% ($28,750). A buyer incentive of $5,000 factored in, to be appliedtowards closing costs or design center spending, but not as a reduction to the purchase price. Recommended base prices range from$445,000 to $745,000, and total average prices range from $524,600 for The Cottages to $789,100 for Summer House.
Product Recommendations
The Cottages: Plan 2 is detached, and is priced at a premium to the other plans, in line with sales history trends at Auberge.The Villas: Plans 2 and 3 are considered equal in value owing to a tradeoff between a smaller 1,750 SF true single story with a fullbedroom, versus an 1,900 SF with a pop-top and optional bedroom 3.Summerhouse: assumes these are plotted in more elevated, view/ridgeline lots.
COMMUNITY SPECIFICS FLOORPLANS RECOMMENDATIONSSubject Property Name Mo Base Incentives Net Base Net Base Assumptions Total Payment Assumptions 80.0%Location Size Sales Base Price/ Options / Price Price ($ Price/ Options / Estimated Total Price/ Monthly Base Addl Tax 4.0%Product Details Sales Summary Mix SF Bed Bath Level Pkg Pace Price SF Upgrades Reduction Impacting) SF Upgrades Premiums Price SF HOA Tax Rate Assess. Mo. Pmt.
AQ-Cottages CalAtlantic Homes 83 1,275 2 2.0 1 2 5.0 $444,990 $349 ($5,000) $0 $444,990 $349 $26,699 $4,450 $471,139 $370 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,524Lakeside Rios Canyon AQ 83 1,550 3 2.0 1 2 $509,990 $329 ($5,000) $0 $509,990 $329 $30,599 $5,100 $540,689 $349 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,860Product: Detached Condos Total Units: 249 83 1,800 3+0 2.0 1 2 $529,990 $294 ($5,000) $0 $529,990 $294 $31,799 $5,300 $562,089 $312 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,964Configuration: 1,800-2,450 Units Sold: 0Lot Dimensions: 30x60-35x70 3 Months Sold: 0
Units Remaining: 249% Remaining: 100%
Summary Statistics: 1,542 5.0 $494,990 $321 ($5,000) $0 $494,990 $321 $29,699 $4,950 $524,639 $340 $250 1.21% 0.00% $2,783
AQ-Villas CalAtlantic Homes 28 1,625 2+O 2.0 1 2 4.0 $533,990 $329 ($5,000) $0 $533,990 $329 $32,039 $13,350 $574,379 $353 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,023Lakeside Rios Canyon AQ 28 1,750 3 2.0 1 2 $584,990 $334 ($5,000) $0 $584,990 $334 $35,099 $14,625 $629,714 $360 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,290Product: Single Family Total Units: 112 28 1,900 2+O 2.0 2 2 $589,990 $311 ($5,000) $0 $589,990 $311 $35,399 $14,750 $635,139 $334 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,316Configuration: 4,000 Units Sold: 0 28 2,060 3 2.0 2 2 $604,990 $294 ($5,000) $0 $604,990 $294 $36,299 $15,125 $651,414 $316 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,395Lot Dimensions: 50x80 3 Months Sold: 0
Units Remaining: 112% Remaining: 100%
Summary Statistics: 1,834 4.0 $578,490 $315 ($5,000) $0 $578,490 $315 $34,709 $14,462 $622,662 $340 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,256
AQ-Summerhouse CalAtlantic Homes 40 2,500 3 2.0 1 2 3.0 $694,990 $278 ($5,000) $0 $694,990 $278 $45,174 $27,800 $762,964 $305 $250 1.21% 0.00% $3,933Lakeside Rios Canyon AQ 42 2,700 3+O 2.0 2 2 $714,990 $265 ($5,000) $0 $714,990 $265 $46,474 $28,600 $785,064 $291 $250 1.21% 0.00% $4,040Product: Single Family Total Units: 124 42 3,000 3+O 3.0 2 2 $744,990 $248 ($5,000) $0 $744,990 $248 $48,424 $29,800 $818,214 $273 $250 1.21% 0.00% $4,200Configuration: 6,000 Units Sold: 0Lot Dimensions: 40x147 3 Months Sold: 0
Units Remaining: 124% Remaining: 100%
Summary Statistics: 124 2,737 3.0 $718,700 $263 ($5,000) $0 $718,700 $263 $46,715 $28,748 $789,163 $288 $250 1.21% 0.00% $4,060
6August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
$400,000$420,000$440,000$460,000$480,000$500,000$520,000$540,000$560,000$580,000$600,000$620,000$640,000$660,000$680,000$700,000$720,000$740,000$760,000$780,000
1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250
Net
Bas
e Pr
ice
Unit Size (Square Feet)
AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos,CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo
AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlanticHomes, 4.0 sls per mo
AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft,CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo
Linear (AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft,CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo)
Source: Meyers LLC
This table summarizes the recommended product program. There is roughly $20,000 separation between the base pricerecommendations of each of the three product lines.
Product Recommendations
BASE PRICE NET BASE PRICE $ ASSUMPTIONS AVERAGE PRICE
Project/Subdivision Type Configuration # of Units Est % of Total Units
Average Unit Size
Base Price $/SFPrice
ImpactingIncentives
Net Base Price $/SF Options Premiums Average Price $/SF Estimated Sales/Month
AQ-Cottages Detached Condos 1,800-2,450 249 51% 1,542 $518,323 $336 $0 $518,323 $336 $25,916 $5,183 $544,423 $353 5.00
AQ-Villas Single Family 4,000 112 23% 1,834 $599,990 $327 $0 $599,990 $327 $30,000 $15,000 $639,989 $349 4.00
AQ-Summerhouse Single Family 6,000 124 26% 2,737 $763,522 $279 $0 $763,522 $279 $45,811 $30,541 $834,874 $305 3.00
485 100% 1,915 $599,872 $319 $0 $599,872 $319 $31,946 $13,933 $640,752 $340 12.00COMMUNITY SUMMARY
$20,000
$20,000
7August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
The active 55+ products in Southern California and some new home projects in East County are summarized below. Auberge at DelSur (just 3 homes left) and La Floresta in Orange County (Brea) are the highest priced active adult product in the market. InRiverside County, Four Seasons by K. Hovnanian in Beaumont is the lowest priced in the market, and the new Terramor master planhas two new age qualified product lines (Cortina and Ardena) which are selling rapidly. Prospect Fields and River Village in Santeeare tow new communities which opened earlier this year, and are included for perspective on market rate homes values (there are noother detached new projects actively selling in East County).
Competitive New Home Summary
BUILDER /UNIT COUNT SUMMARY SALES PACE AVERAGE MONTHLY
COMMUNITY DEVELOPER CITY LOT SIZE TOTAL RLSD SOLD AVAIL. REMAIN ALL 3 MO. SF NET PRICE $/SF HOA TAX PAYMENT
AQ-Cottages CalAtlantic Homes Lakeside 1,800-2,450 249 - 0 - 249 5.0 -- 1,542 $524,639 $340 $250 1.21% $2,783
AQ-Villas CalAtlantic Homes Lakeside 4,000 112 - 0 - 112 4.0 -- 1,834 $622,662 $340 $250 1.21% $3,256
AQ-Summerhouse CalAtlantic Homes Lakeside 6,000 124 - 0 - 124 3.0 -- 2,737 $789,163 $288 $250 1.21% $4,060
The Villas at Auberge CalAtlantic Homes San Diego 4,000 74 74 73 1 1 4.4 2.7 1,859 $877,673 $472 $292 1.31% $4,605
Summer House at Auberge CalAtlantic Homes San Diego 6,000 56 56 54 2 2 3.2 2.0 2,570 $1,094,467 $426 $301 1.30% $5,668
The Cottages at Auberge CalAtlantic Homes San Diego 2,450 76 76 76 0 0 6.2 3.7 1,591 $764,041 $480 $282 1.31% $4,035
Solana at La Floresta Del Webb Brea 4,704 91 0 32 N/Av 59 2.4 4.7 1,682 $784,190 $466 $362 1.25% $4,174
Olvera at La Floresta Del Webb Brea 4,998 96 0 24 N/Av 72 1.8 2.3 2,529 $1,061,990 $420 $303 1.15% $5,377
Four Seasons - Colonnade K. Hovnanian Beaumont 5,000 1,870 1,550 1,490 60 380 10.4 8.3 1,587 $331,583 $209 $226 1.90% $2,017
Four Seasons - Keystone K. Hovnanian Beaumont 5,500 1,870 1,550 1,490 60 380 10.4 8.3 2,111 $343,110 $163 $226 1.90% $2,080
Four Seasons - Medallion K. Hovnanian Beaumont 6,000 1,870 0 1,490 N/Av 380 10.4 8.3 2,469 $424,940 $172 $226 1.90% $2,522
Cortina Pulte Del Webb Temescal 4,000 115 34 26 N/Av N/Av 9.6 9.6 2,076 $507,657 $245 $275 1.70% $2,933
Ardena Pulte Del Webb Temescal 4,500 57 32 27 5 30 14.4 14.4 1,725 $486,657 $282 $275 1.70% $2,823
Prospect Fields KB Home Santee 4,000 75 15 11 4 64 4.7 4.7 2,077 $633,978 $305 $148 1.17% $3,187
River Village KB Home Santee 6,800 82 25 20 5 62 3.6 New 2,539 $709,893 $280 $103 1.17% $3,506
Trevi Hills Pacifica Lakeside - 280 64 25 39 255 0.6 - 3,272 $902,400 $276 $220 1.20% $4,569
6,612 3,476 4,838 176 1,685 6.3 6.3 2,161 $686,352 $323 $249 $0 $3,654
6,612 3,476 4,838 176 1,685 4.7 4.7 2,077 $709,893 $282 $275 $0 $3,506
NEW HOME AVERAGE:
NEW HOME MEDIAN:
8August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Sales pace in the AQ competitive market ranges from 2 to 3 units per month at La Floresta to between 3 and 6 units historically atAuberge (sales pace has slowed recently at Auberge as it is almost sold out). The K. Hovnanian project in Beaumont continues tosell at roughly 3 to 4 units per community, for a total of 10 to 12 units per month overall. The two AQ neighborhoods at Terramor areselling fast at between 10 and 14 units per month, and the two new market rate communities in Santee are also selling wellAbsorption of 5 units per month is anticipated for the cluster product, with a slightly slower sales pace of 3 to 4 units per month for theconventional lots.
Absorption Schedule
Project/Subdivision Type Configuration # of Units Avg Yr/Pace Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
AQ-Cottages Detached Condos
1,800-2,450 249 50 60 60 60 60 9
AQ-Villas Single Family 4,000 112 37 48 48 16
AQ-Summerhouse Single Family 6,000 124 31 36 36 36 16
485 118 144 144 112 76 9COMMUNITY SUMMARY
HYPOTHETICAL COMMUNITY SELL OUT
9August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
This chart compares the base price positioning of the proposed product with other active new home projects in the EastCounty/South County market. The pricing is generally in-line the base prices of the market rate homes at River Village and ProspectFields (slightly better Santee location versus premium for AQ product at the Subject) and below the slow-selling Trevi Hills (elevated,single-level plans, located further out in semi-rural Lakeside area).
Subject Positioning vs. Active New Projects (Base Price)
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
$800,000
$850,000
$900,000
$950,000
$1,000,000
$1,050,000
$1,100,000
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Net
Bas
e Pr
ice
Unit Size (Square Feet)
AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos, CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo
AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo
AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo
The Villas at Auberge - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.4/2.7 sls per mo
Summer House at Auberge - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.2/2.0 sls per mo
The Cottages at Auberge - 2,450 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 6.2/3.7 sls per mo
Solana at La Floresta - 4,704 sq ft, Del Webb, 2.4/4.7 sls per mo
Olvera at La Floresta - 4,998 sq ft, Del Webb, 1.8/2.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Colonnade - 5,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Keystone - 5,500 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Medallion - 6,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Cortina - 4,000 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 9.6/9.6 sls per mo
Ardena - 4,500 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 14.4/14.4 sls per mo
Prospect Fields - 4,000 sq ft, KB Home, 4.7/4.7 sls per mo
River Village - 6,800 sq ft, KB Home, 3.6/- sls per mo
Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per moSource: Meyers Research; Individual Community Sales Offices Absorption = Historical/3 Month
10August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
After options/upgrades revenue and lots premiums are included, the two smaller products remain in line with Prospect Fields, whichoffers similar lot sizes to The Villas. The largest Summer House product is at a 10% premium to River Village to reflect the elevatedridgeline location of the Subject, and is priced in line with the smallest lowest priced homes at Trevi Hills in Lakeside(Vineyard/equestrian lots ranging from 1-2 acres, selling slowly at 1 unit every 1 to 2 months).
Subject Positioning vs. Active New Projects (Total Price)
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
$800,000
$850,000
$900,000
$950,000
$1,000,000
$1,050,000
$1,100,000
$1,150,000
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Tota
l Pric
e
Unit Size (Square Feet)
AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos, CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo
AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo
AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo
The Villas at Auberge - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.4/2.7 sls per mo
Summer House at Auberge - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.2/2.0 sls per mo
The Cottages at Auberge - 2,450 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 6.2/3.7 sls per mo
Solana at La Floresta - 4,704 sq ft, Del Webb, 2.4/4.7 sls per mo
Olvera at La Floresta - 4,998 sq ft, Del Webb, 1.8/2.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Colonnade - 5,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Keystone - 5,500 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Medallion - 6,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Cortina - 4,000 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 9.6/9.6 sls per mo
Ardena - 4,500 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 14.4/14.4 sls per mo
Prospect Fields - 4,000 sq ft, KB Home, 4.7/4.7 sls per mo
River Village - 6,800 sq ft, KB Home, 3.6/- sls per mo
Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per mo
Linear (Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per mo)Source: Meyers Research; Individual Community Sales Offices Absorption = Historical/3 Month
11August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
On a monthly payment basis, Rios Canyon will provide sought after age qualified product in an attractive master planned communitywith extensive amenities and a good location in San Diego County. The total tax rate including CFD at Terramor is 1.7%, bringing themonthly payments at Terramor much closer to the Subject’s Cottages product (but Rios Canyon’s location in San Diego County cancommand a premium over Terramor’s location in the Temescal Canyon area of Riverside County).
Subject Positioning vs. Active New Projects (Total Price)
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
$2,500
$2,750
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
$3,750
$4,000
$4,250
$4,500
$4,750
$5,000
$5,250
$5,500
$5,750
$6,000
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Estim
ated
Mon
thly
Pay
men
t
Unit Size (Square Feet)
AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos, CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo
AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo
AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo
The Villas at Auberge - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.4/2.7 sls per mo
Summer House at Auberge - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.2/2.0 sls per mo
The Cottages at Auberge - 2,450 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 6.2/3.7 sls per mo
Solana at La Floresta - 4,704 sq ft, Del Webb, 2.4/4.7 sls per mo
Olvera at La Floresta - 4,998 sq ft, Del Webb, 1.8/2.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Colonnade - 5,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Keystone - 5,500 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Four Seasons - Medallion - 6,000 sq ft, K. Hovnanian, 10.4/8.3 sls per mo
Cortina - 4,000 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 9.6/9.6 sls per mo
Ardena - 4,500 sq ft, Pulte Del Webb, 14.4/14.4 sls per mo
Prospect Fields - 4,000 sq ft, KB Home, 4.7/4.7 sls per mo
River Village - 6,800 sq ft, KB Home, 3.6/- sls per mo
Trevi Hills - -, Pacifica, 0.6/- sls per moSource: Meyers Research; Individual Community Sales Offices Absorption = Historical/3 Month
12August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
The recommended positioning of Rios Canyon product is at the top of the attached existing AQ home market in San Diego County(but below sales at Auberge at Del Sur-the only new AQ product built recently).
Subject Positioning vs. Local Attached Resales
AVERAGE
REFERENCE AREA DATE RANGE YEAR BUILT LOT SIZE SALES ALL 3 MO. SF NET PRICE $/SF
San Diego County (Attached 55+) Sold L12M Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 1977 att 170 27.1 18.3 1,161 $357,992 $308
San Diego County (Attached 55+) Active/Pending Jan. '00 to Aug. '17 1978 att 66 0.0 0.0 1,146 $365,370 $319
SALES PACE
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
$800,000
$850,000
500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250
Tota
l Pric
e / C
lose
d Pr
ice
Unit Size (Square Feet)
AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos, CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo
AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo
AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo
San Diego County (Attached 55+) Sold L12M
San Diego County (Attached 55+) Active/Pending
Linear (San Diego County (Attached 55+) Sold L12M)
Linear (San Diego County (Attached 55+) Active/Pending)
Source: Meyers Research
13August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
The two smaller product lines at Rios Canyon are positioned in line with the detached AQ market when compared with resales ofsimilar home size. It should be noted that there are no detached 55+ listings or sales transactions over 3,000 SF in home size. Thelargest 6,000 SF Summer House product is priced lower than the competitive market, as there is a perceived price ceiling of$800,000 in the El Cajon/Lakeside market (evidenced in the Blossom Valley case study on the following page).
Subject Positioning vs. Local Detached AQ Resales
AVERAGE
REFERENCE AREA DATE RANGE YEAR BUILT LOT SIZE SALES ALL 3 MO. SF NET PRICE $/SF
San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Sold 2017) Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 1978 6,559 131 21.8 9.0 1,620 $548,730 $339
San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Act/Pend) Jan. '00 to Aug. '17 1983 5,712 54 1.0 0.0 1,728 $631,181 $365
SALES PACE
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
$800,000
$850,000
$900,000
1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250
Tota
l Pric
e / C
lose
d Pr
ice
Unit Size (Square Feet)
AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos, CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo
AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo
AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo
San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Sold 2017)
San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Act/Pend)
Linear (San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Sold 2017))
Linear (San Diego County 55+ Under 3,000 SF (Act/Pend))
Source: Meyers Research
14August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
The Rios Canyon cluster homes (Cottages) are priced in line with Serramar (market rate, La Mesa) and Oaks North, a older 55+ golfcourse community with a desirable north Rancho Bernardo address. The 4,000 SF lots (Villas) are priced in line with Leisure VillageOcean Hills in Oceanside (coastal but older), and the 6,000 SF lots are roughly $100,000 above recently built market ratecommunities in East County (Serramar, Sky Ranch) and in line with the highest value Blossom Valley homes built 2000+.
Subject Positioning vs. Select Case Studies
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
$1,200,000
1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500
Tota
l Pric
e / C
lose
d Pr
ice
Unit Size (Square Feet)
AQ-Cottages - Detached Condos, CalAtlantic Homes, 5.0 sls per mo
AQ-Villas - 4,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 4.0 sls per mo
AQ-Summerhouse - 6,000 sq ft, CalAtlantic Homes, 3.0 sls per mo
Leisure Village Ocean Hills SFD (APSold 2017)
Serramar - La Mesa Sold L12M
Oaks North SFD Sold L12M
Sky Ranch Homes under 3,500 SF - Santee Sold L12M
KHov Four Seasons-Murrieta AQ (SFD, Sold 2017)
Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley Sold L12M
Auberge Del Sur AQ (SFD, Sold L6M)
Blossom Valley Built 2000+ (SFD APSold L12M)
Source: Meyers LLC
AVERAGE
REFERENCE AREA DATE RANGE YEAR BUILT LOT SIZE SALES ALL 3 MO. SF NET PRICE $/SF
Blossom Valley Built 2000+ (SFD APSold L12M) Mar. '17 to Aug. '17 2006 67,729 7 1.0 0.0 3,059 $722,714 $236
Sky Ranch Homes under 3,500 SF - Santee Sold L12M Sep. '16 to Aug. '17 2011 10,374 5 0.8 0.0 2,867 $740,200 $258
Serramar - La Mesa Sold L12M Sep. '16 to Aug. '17 2006 28,159 7 0.0 0.3 2,786 $710,143 $255
Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley Sold L12M Aug. '16 to Aug. '17 2003 6,296 28 2.6 2.7 2,744 $598,264 $218
Leisure Village Ocean Hills SFD (APSold 2017) Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 1992 5,179 22 4.2 1.0 2,080 $674,659 $324
Oaks North SFD Sold L12M Aug. '16 to Aug. '17 1977 11,895 6 0.8 0.0 1,750 $604,667 $346
Auberge Del Sur AQ (SFD, Sold L6M) Nov. '16 to Aug. '17 2016 4,358 7 0.8 0.7 1,989 $925,800 $465
KHov Four Seasons-Murrieta AQ (SFD, Sold 2017) Jan. '17 to Aug. '17 2002 2,065 20 3.4 2.3 2,065 $424,300 $205
SALES PACE
15August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Ocean Hills Country Club in Oceanside, CA is a 55+ retirement community with a large clubhouse, 18-hole golf course with 1,632homes spread across 350 acres. Ocean Hills Country Club was built in three distinct phases between 1984 and 1999. The initialphase was constructed between 1984 and 1988 and it contains approximately 1,125 duplex homes that are 971 to 1,899 square feet.The second phase, which contains larger single-family homes, was built between 1989 and 1992. The third and final phase wasconstructed from 1997 to 1999 and it offers six single-family floor plan choices.
AQ Case Study: Leisure Village Ocean Hills - Oceanside
Leisure Village Ocean Hills SFD (APSold 2017)
Address Sale Date Sale Value Unit Size PPSF
7049 Dassia Way 6/13/17 $700,000 1,982 $353
4610 Cyrus Way 5/31/17 $710,000 2,808 $253
4953 Lamia Way 5/30/17 $600,000 2,341 $256
4985 Poseidon Way 5/16/17 $740,000 2,340 $316
4113 Pindar Way 5/15/17 $649,000 1,850 $351
4924 Thebes Way 5/4/17 $645,000 1,613 $400
4170 Pindar Way 5/1/17 $634,000 1,850 $343
4130 Andros Way 4/20/17 $657,000 1,592 $413
4988 Lamia Way 4/12/17 $780,000 2,317 $337
4949 Tilos Way 4/10/17 $649,000 1,850 $351
16August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
The Oaks North 55 plus golf course community, located in Rancho Bernardo California, was constructed between 1976 and 1987.Oaks North is a delightfully landscaped community of 1,963 homes with a nice mix of sizes and styles. Located in distinctiveneighborhoods, they consist of detached and attached, 2 to 3 bedroom, single-story homes and 1 to 3 bedroom two-levelcondominiums.
AQ Case Study: Oaks North – Rancho Bernardo
Oaks North SFD Sold L12M
Address Sale Date Sale Value Unit Size PPSF
12706 Camino Emparrado 3/10/17 $515,000 1,388 $371
12615 Camino Emparrado 8/1/16 $552,500 1,714 $322
12615 Camino Vuelo 10/3/16 $720,500 1,870 $385
17896 Corte Emparrado 10/4/16 $590,000 1,909 $309
12699 Senda Acantilada W 3/1/17 $620,000 1,786 $347
12937 Camino Emparrado 11/14/16 $630,000 1,831 $344
17August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Blossom Valley resales for newer product built after 2000 were analyzed. Most of these single story homes on large lots are on themarket at similar prices to the Subject, but the Subject has a less rural location closer to conveniences with master plan amenities.
Market Rate Case Study: Blossom Valley Built 2000+
Subject
Blossom Valley
Blossom Valley Built 2000+ (SFD APSold L12M)
Address Sale Date Sale Value Unit Size PPSF
15249 Creek Hills Road $799,000 3,176 $252
9151 Soldin Ln $559,000 2,378 $235
10027 Silva $585,000 3,150 $186
15786 Olde Highway 80 $897,000 3,400 $264
15431 Sleepy Creek Road W 3/27/17 $825,000 3,409 $242
15724 Olde Hwy 80 $695,000 3,055 $227
9932 Chocolate Summit Dr $699,000 2,845 $246
18August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Encompassing approximately 377 acres on a mesa above Santee, Sky Ranch built by Lennar between 2008 and 2011 includes 371homes. There are 148 townhomes and 223 single and two-story plans ranging from 2,418 to 4,908 square feet on 6,000, 10,000 and20,000 square foot lots.
Market Rate Case Study: Sky Ranch - Santee
Sky Ranch Homes under 3,500 SF - Santee Sold L12M
Address Sale Date Sale Value Unit Size PPSF
5583 Dracena St 3/24/17 $729,000 2,418 $301
8700 Ruocco Dr 12/7/16 $745,000 2,880 $259
5012 Sevilla 10/28/16 $720,000 2,884 $250
5132 Sevilla Street 10/28/16 $727,000 2,884 $252
3165 Mirador 9/6/16 $780,000 3,270 $239
19August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Serramar La Mesa is a luxury home community that was developed in 2005-2006, located north of highway 94. The 8 floorplansoffered range from 2,077 square feet to 3,980 square feet with three to five bedrooms.
Market Rate Case Study: Serramar – La Mesa
Serramar - La Mesa Sold L12M
Address Sale Date Sale Value Unit Size PPSF
3800 Sacramento Drive 2/1/17 $595,000 2,077 $286
7778 Highwood Ave 9/23/16 $582,500 2,077 $280
7613 Seattle Drive 3/2/17 $730,000 2,728 $268
3805 Sacramento 2/3/17 $740,000 3,127 $237
3910 Sacramento Drive 9/6/16 $740,000 2,728 $271
3825 Sacramento Dr 5/18/17 $748,500 3,384 $221
7630 Eastridge 11/9/16 $835,000 3,384 $247
20August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Highlands Ranch is a community located in Spring Valley in the southeast part of San Diego County. The majority of homes in thiscommunity are Mediterranean or modern style single-family homes. They were built between 1992 and 2007. These homes offer 3 to5 bedrooms and 2 to 4 bathrooms. Residences range in size from 1,848 to 3,170 square feet in living space. Prices of homes for salein Highlands Ranch currently range from $544,000 to $724,900.
Market Rate Case Study: Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley
Highlands Ranch - Spring Valley Sold L12M
Address Sale Date Sale Value Unit Size PPSF
2081 California Springs 11/2/16 $541,000 2,143 $252
2042 Springs Of Life Ct. 5/4/17 $525,000 2,318 $226
10156 Fabled Waters Court 2/28/17 $535,000 2,318 $231
10184 California Waters Dr 2/28/17 $551,500 2,143 $257
3139 Pointe Pkwy 5/10/17 $585,000 3,170 $185
2085 Fabled Waters Dr 11/14/16 $560,000 2,455 $228
2973 Pointe Parkway 6/27/17 $589,000 2,733 $216
10429 Artesian Springs 6/9/17 $585,000 2,455 $238
10465 Lake Breeze Dr. 12/2/16 $605,000 3,170 $191
2972 Lake Breeze Ct 1/2/17 $605,000 2,841 $213
21August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
For-Sale Market Trends: County/SubmarketRios Canyon Ranch, Lakeside, California
22August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Total Single-Family Home Sales VolumeSingle family home sales in East County have historically accounted for about 15% of the total single family home sales in San DiegoCounty (it is at 16% through July 2017), and have generally followed the sales trends set by the County overall. Sales volumes in theLakeside Subject ZIP code of 92021 have been constant at between 400 and 450 sales (currently +/-448 annually) over the past twoyears.
27,774
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
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0
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15,000
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25,000
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35,000
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Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Sales
San Diego County East County 92021
Source: Collateral Analytics
East
Cou
nty
& 9
2021
San
Die
go C
ount
y
4,614
448
23August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Average Single Family Home Sales Price Trends (Total Sales)Average single family home prices in the County and submarket have been trending up over the past 4+ years. Current single familyhome prices in both the East County market and the Subject ZIP code 92021 are averaging around $490,000. Prices in 92021 haveincreased by 8.4% in the past 12 months and 17.6% over the past 24 months.
$706,417
$492,667
$488,417
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
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$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
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Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Price
San Diego County East County 92021
Source: Collateral Analytics
24August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Average Single Family Sales Price Trends (Price Per SF)The average per square foot sales price for single-family homes in the Subject ZIP code was $299 per square foot in July 2017, upalmost 11% from the same time a year ago (July 2016). Price per square foot in both San Diego County overall and East County hasincreased by roughly 7.5% over the past 12 months.
$357
$296
$299
$150
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$225
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$275
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$375
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Rolling 12-Month Total Single Family Price per Square Foot
San Diego County East County 92021
Source: Collateral Analytics
25August 2017 | CalAtlantic HomesRios Canyon Ranch AQ, Lakeside, CA
Single Family Sales By Price RangeSan Diego County: The majority of detached salesin San Diego County are taking place in the$400,000 to $800,000 price ranges, with 11.5% oftotal sales priced over $800,000.
East County Submarket: The majority of detachedsales are also taking place in the $300,000 to$700,000 price bands, with just 4.8% of sales pricedover $800,000 in 2017 year-to-date. This illustratesthat the high-end market is more limited in EastCounty than in the County overall.
Subject Zip Code (92021): The majority ofdetached sales in the Subject zip code are alsotaking place in the $400,000 to $450,000 priceband, with the next largest price bands either sideof this from $300,000 to $599,000. Just 5.8% of thetotal sales in 92021 year-to-date 2017 have beenover $800,000.
Home Sales by Price Range: 92021
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
9 2 18 42 25 46 48 19 6 10 4 26 8 92 122 134 171 206 111 36 29 13 525 75 118 110 133 117 157 220 182 155 100 42139 94 37 39 31 30 49 93 111 153 180 11149 37 15 15 13 7 16 23 28 47 67 6039 23 8 6 20 10 13 16 14 17 34 1711 5 2 2 4 1 4 4 4 6 8 21 2 1 2 3 0 0 5 4 4 0 4
40 23 10 9 4 3 2 9 6 19 8 15
Total 319 269 301 347 367 385 495 500 391 440 414 258% Change -15.7% 11.9% 15.3% 5.8% 4.9% 28.6% 1.0% -21.8% 12.5% -5.9%
< $200k$200 - $299k$300 - $399k$400 - $499k$500 - $599k$600 - $699k$700 - $749k$750 - $799k
$800 or Greater
Home Sales by Price Range: East County
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
95 67 283 720 425 611 582 370 208 159 109 92110 147 867 1,176 1,065 1,366 1,412 863 466 345 224 103369 594 1,051 1,100 1,253 1,154 1,369 1,648 1,428 1,200 835 354
1,345 907 520 452 418 456 556 983 1,136 1,539 1,710 963785 464 226 225 247 208 255 416 482 745 894 623429 270 150 94 123 115 116 216 299 321 433 271144 68 46 30 27 24 24 61 66 85 100 82105 59 42 28 23 15 17 36 41 58 77 48356 226 87 48 42 39 29 64 92 124 148 129
Total 3,738 2,802 3,272 3,873 3,623 3,988 4,360 4,657 4,218 4,576 4,530 2,665% Change -25.0% 16.8% 18.4% -6.5% 10.1% 9.3% 6.8% -9.4% 8.5% -1.0%
< $200k$200 - $299k$300 - $399k$400 - $499k$500 - $599k$600 - $699k$700 - $749k$750 - $799k
$800 or Greater
Home Sales by Price Range: San Diego County
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
264 239 1,612 3,743 2,131 2,465 2,362 1,257 697 581 358 192499 620 3,940 5,540 5,063 5,671 5,884 3,445 1,974 1,599 1,016 359
1,623 2,097 5,185 5,748 5,801 5,704 7,139 6,636 5,339 4,749 3,385 1,4965,647 4,273 3,668 3,521 3,586 3,452 4,253 5,732 5,542 6,394 6,452 3,4525,316 3,480 2,183 2,213 2,430 2,022 2,518 3,416 3,585 4,577 5,032 3,0343,578 2,448 1,553 1,499 1,654 1,425 1,894 2,492 2,480 2,904 3,359 2,1442,508 1,770 1,048 902 1,156 974 1,322 1,813 1,648 1,885 2,116 1,3971,720 1,237 711 620 691 658 772 1,145 1,144 1,341 1,527 9441,075 707 395 321 345 356 440 718 750 838 934 651
Total 22,230 16,871 20,295 24,107 22,857 22,727 26,584 26,654 23,159 24,868 24,179 13,669% Change -24.1% 20.3% 18.8% -5.2% -0.6% 17.0% 0.3% -13.1% 7.4% -2.8%
< $200k$200 - $299k$300 - $399k$400 - $499k$500 - $599k$600 - $699k$700 - $799k$800 - $899k
$900 or Greater