RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT: NANOSCIENCE

David M. BerubeProfessor of Science Communication, STS, and CRDM (Communication, Rhetoric and Digital Media), North Carolina State University

Director: NCSU Public Communication of Science and Technology (PCOST) Project.

Manager, Center for Converging Technologies, LLC – social media consultancy (trade assns and food industry).

PI: NSF NIRT #0809470 – Intuitive Toxicology and Public Engagement, 2007-2011

http://pcost.org

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Status Quo – regulate under current rules Status Quo – regulate under current rules (EPA).(EPA).

Enhanced regulation Enhanced regulation Occup. EHS – promulgate rules for types of Occup. EHS – promulgate rules for types of

nanoparticles.nanoparticles. Product related – promulgate rules by agency Product related – promulgate rules by agency

mandate – USDA, FDA & CPSC.mandate – USDA, FDA & CPSC.

NANO-GOVERNANCE (1)

Stipulated regulation.Stipulated regulation. Safety Data Sheet.Safety Data Sheet. Labeling. Labeling.

Restricted regulation.Restricted regulation. Import-export restrictions by application Import-export restrictions by application

(WTO).(WTO). Outright bans on some or all applications.Outright bans on some or all applications.

NANO-GOVERNANCE (2)

1.1. Hyper-acceleration.Hyper-acceleration.

2.2. Public complexity.Public complexity.

3.3. Digital obfuscation.Digital obfuscation.

4.4. Suspect experts/expertise.Suspect experts/expertise.

5.5. Fact/fictionality.Fact/fictionality.

UNCERTAINTY: OVER-ARCHING VARIABLES

CHARACTERISTICS AND CLASSIFICATION OF NANOPARTICLES:

EXPERT DELPHI SURVEY (Nanotoxicology 30 Sep 2010. doi:10.3109/17435390.2010.521633).

EXPERT DELPHI SURVEY(Nanotoxicology 30 Sep 2010.

doi:10.3109/17435390.2010.521633)

RAND – cross-impact RAND – cross-impact matrix (Dalkey 1971)matrix (Dalkey 1971)

IRGC – International IRGC – International Risk Governance Risk Governance Council.Council.

CBEN (Rice) and CBEN (Rice) and ICON.ICON.

CET - Return on CET - Return on Investment.Investment.

ORIGINS

Future assessment tool  used in identifying main forces in a firm's environment, and in estimating their collective impacts. Each force or factor is assigned a score (usually between -10 and +10) in a table (matrix) based on its own strength and the strength of its interactions. On adding up, the scores separate the 'driving' forces from 'inhibiting' forces.

High Uncertainty/High Risk – ETC/Soil High Uncertainty/High Risk – ETC/Soil Association/FoE-A.Association/FoE-A.

Some Uncertainty/Some Risk – Voluntary Some Uncertainty/Some Risk – Voluntary Stewardship.Stewardship.

Some Uncertainty/Low Risk – Some Uncertainty/Low Risk – Best/Common/Good Practice.Best/Common/Good Practice.

Low Uncertainty/Low Risk – Self-Low Uncertainty/Low Risk – Self-regulation/Asilomar Model.regulation/Asilomar Model.

SCENARIO MODELING

High Uncertainty/High Risk – ETC/Soil Association/FoE-A.

R(θ,δ(x)) = ∫ L(θ, δ(x)) f(x|θ) dxR(θ,δ(x)) = ∫ L(θ, δ(x)) f(x|θ) dx

δ(x) = estimator.δ(x) = estimator. ΘΘ = parameter. = parameter. L = loss function.L = loss function. x = observables.x = observables.

What constitutes data?What constitutes data? How do we collect How do we collect

data?data? Are some data Are some data

privileged over others?privileged over others? How do we resolve How do we resolve

contradictions?contradictions? When do we have When do we have

enough data?enough data?

ON FUZZINESS

finitedata

IF we defined C = ~V thenIF we defined C = ~V then Violating the law of the Excluded Middle IF Violating the law of the Excluded Middle IF

C = ~VC = ~V

y

ON FUZZINESS

I. Nomenclature.II. Classification.III. Monitoring.IV. Characterization.

1.1. size, size, 2.2. composition, composition, 3.3. surface area to surface area to

volume, volume, 4.4. surface coating, surface coating, 5.5. shape and surface shape and surface

curvature, curvature,

6.6. surface charge,surface charge,7.7. contaminants and contaminants and

impurities, impurities, 8.8. surface surface

hydrophobicity,hydrophobicity,9.9. surface defects, surface defects, 10.10. fibrosity, fibrosity, 11.11. porosity, and/orporosity, and/or12.12. densitydensity

UNCERTAINTY: NANOPARTICLES

SETS

Multiple sets. Multiple sets. About membership About membership

among/between among/between sets.sets.

Value of Value of membership from membership from none to total.none to total.

Landfill pollution.Landfill pollution. Soil and sediments Soil and sediments

pollution.pollution. Groundwater Groundwater

contamination.contamination. River water quality River water quality

management.management. Hydrocarbon Hydrocarbon

contamination.contamination.

ON FUZZINESS

Cadmium in surficial Cadmium in surficial soils.soils.

Dredging.Dredging. Flood control.Flood control. Nitrate contamination.Nitrate contamination. Highway bridge Highway bridge

safety.safety.

Merge with cross-impact matrix (multi-dimensional)

(1)Scientific reasoning model.

(2)Human reasoning model.

(Tesfemariam & Sadiz 2006)

ON FUZZINESS - PROJECTS

Decide on the sets appropriate for data Decide on the sets appropriate for data management.management.

Decide on the dimensions – characteristics, Decide on the dimensions – characteristics, exposure, etc.exposure, etc.

Decide on the method(s) – hybrid Decide on the method(s) – hybrid approaches of fuzzy set theory in conjunction approaches of fuzzy set theory in conjunction stochastic techniques. (Maybe, crossing stochastic techniques. (Maybe, crossing fuzzy set theory with cross-impact matrices.)fuzzy set theory with cross-impact matrices.)

Experiment with rounds of estimations.Experiment with rounds of estimations.

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RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT: NANOSCIENCE

This work was supported in part by grants from the National Science Foundation, NSF 0809470, Nanotechnology Interdisciplinary Research Team (NIRT): Intuitive Toxicology and Public Engagement.

NCSU, U Wisconsin, U Minnesota, U South Carolina, & Rice U. (6 grad. students).

THANKS dmberube@ncsu.edu