Risk and Benefit Analysis (RBA) of GOF Research: Gaps and Future Considerations (Rocco Casagrande)

8/19/2019 Risk and Benefit Analysis (RBA) of GOF Research: Gaps and Future Considerations (Rocco Casagrande)

1/24

Vfcljfl. Vlfurcty. Vtretloy.

Ycsn ejg Iljlbct Ejehyscs (YIE)

`b Oecj `b Bujftc`j Ylslerfa

Oeps ejg Buturl F`jscglretc`js

Orypa`j Vfcljtcbcf

Y`ff` Feseorejgl, ]aG, ]rcjfcpeh Cjvlstcoet`r

JEV Dlltcjo Bliruery 5=, 9=52


2/24

Eoljge• E irclb `vlrvclw `b tal YIE stugy

• Hlss`js hlerjlg ejg gete oeps• Epphycjo tal YIE t` splfcbcf lxplrcdljts

• Gcsfussc`j `b uscjo tal 5351 A5J5pgd strecj es e f`dperet`r

9


3/24

@vlrehh Epprèfa t` tal YIE

• Wal purp`sl `b tacs lcoat-d`jta stugy wes t` pr`vcgl gete `jtal rcsns ejg iljlbcts ess`fcetlg wcta rlslerfa `j d`gcbclgstrecjs `b cjbhuljze vcrusls ejg tal f`r`jevcrusls

• Wal YIE cs gcvcglg cjt` tarll dek`r tesns, lefa `b wacfarlqucrls e gcstcjft gete f`hhlftc`j ejg ejehyscs epprèfa

• Uuejtctetcvl Ic`seblty Ycsn Esslssdljt

• Vldc-quejtctetcvl Ic`slfurcty Ycsn Esslssdljt• Iljlbct Esslssdljt

• Wacs esslssdljt wes f`dperetcvl

• W` gltlrdcjl tal FAEJOL cj rcsn br`d rlslerfa `j O`B petaòljs

f`dperlg t` rlslerfa `j wchg typl petaòljs• W` cgljtcby tal iljlbcts t` sfcljfl, puihcf alehta ejg dlgcfcjl ebb`rglg iy

O`B rlslerfa F@D]EYLG W@ ehtlrjetcvl rlslerfa ejg cjj`vetc`js

6 Orypa`j Vfcljtcbcf JVEII ]rlsljtetc`j


4/24

Vuddery‗Beft`rs Cjbhuljfcjo Effcgljt Ycsn

3

• @jhy e sdehh

dcj`rcty `bhei`ret`ryeffcgljts wcta tald`st f`jteocùs

cjbhuljze vcruslsfeusl e h`fehùtirlen, ejg `jhye dcj`rcty `b ta`sl

hleg t` e ohìehpejgldcf

V l e s ` j e h C j b h u l

j z e


5/24

Vuddery‗Ic`seblty Ycsn F`dpercs`j

Wal gernlr tal saegl `b orey, tal d`rl e O`B palj`typl cjfrlesls rcsn `b audej chhjlssls ejg

gletas. Dernlg cj wactl erl O`B palj`typls taet erl j`t rlhlvejt J/E) t` rcsn `r rlgufl rcsn.

<

O`B ]alj`typl Vles`jeh CjbhuljzeRcrusls

]ejgldcfCjbhuljze Rcrusls

Evcej CjbhuljzeRcrusls

F`r`jevcrusls

Ljaejflg

trejsdcsscichcty

Cjfrlesls

prìeichcty `b ej

ùtirlen ejg tal

f`jslquljfls `b ej

ùtirlen

Cjfrlesls

prìeichcty `b ej

ùtirlen ejg tal

f`jslquljfls `b ej

ùtirlen

Cjfrlesls

prìeichcty `b ej

ùtirlen ejg tal

f`jslquljfls `b ej

ùtirlen

Cjfrlesls

prìeichcty `b e

ohìeh ùtirlen ejg

f`jslquljfls `b e

ohìeh ùtirlen

Ljaejflg petaòljcfcty

Cjfrleslsf`jslquljfls

Cjfrleslsf`jslquljfls

Egeptetc`j t`

deddehs J/E J/E

Glfrlesls

prìeichcty `b ej

ùtirlen

J/E

Lvesc`j `b cjguflg

cddujcty

Cjfrleslg

f`jslquljfls cj

acoa cjf`dlfùjtrcls `jhy

J/E

Lvesc`j `b

jetureh/rlscgueh

cddujcty

Cjfrlesls

prìeichcty `b ej

ùtirlen ejg tal

f`jslquljfls `b ej

ùtirlen

Cjfrlesls

prìeichcty `b ej

ùtirlen ejg tal

f`jslquljfls `b ej

ùtirlen

J/E J/E

Ejtcvcreh rlscstejfl

Cjfrleslg

f`jslquljfls cj

acoa cjf`dl

fùjtrcls `jhy

Cjfrleslg

f`jslquljfls cj

acoa cjf`dl

fùjtrcls `jhy

J/E

Ljaejflg or`wta cj

fuhturl/loos

Cjfrleslg faejfl `b

e HEC

Cjfrleslg faejfl `b

e HEC

Acoahcoatlg cj

ylhh`w erl

faejols br`d

tal grebt YIE,

gul t` fr`ss

pr`tlftc`j

ebb`rglg iy

cjblftc`j

wcta

rlfljthy

fcrfuhetcjo

strecjs vs `hglr

pejgldcf

strecjs


6/24

Vuddery‗Ic`seblty Ycsn F`dpercs`j

• Lxedphl; lbblft `jf`jslquljfls `b fr`sspr`tlftc`j eoecjst 5351A5J5 pgd ebb`rglg iylxp`surl t` 9==3 A5J5 pgd• 53


7/24

Ic`seblty Ycsn F`jfhusc`js• Dejcpuhetcjo O`B sles`jeh cjbhuljze strecjs et IVH6 dey f`dpljsetl

b`r tal cjfrlesl cj rcsn p`slg iy d`gcbclg strecjs iy glfrlescjo tal rcsn

`b e hei`ret`ry efqucrlg cjblftc`j• D`sthy iy ej lxtre systld `b rlspcret`ry pr`tlftc`j

• V`dl `b tal dejcpuhetc`js taet f`uhg tal`rltcfehhy cjfrlesl rcsn deyj`t il efaclveihl `r glscreihl

• E strecj taet fej `vlrf`dl pr`tlftcvl veffcjetc`j cjfrlesls rcsn `jhy cb ct fejlvegl veffcjl pr`tlftc`j vce cddujl d`guhetc`j, j`t ejtcoljcf faejol

• Wal sfcljtcbcf vehul `b cjfrlescjo tal trejsdcsscichcty `b cjbhuljze vcrusily`jg taet `b tal d`st trejsdcsscihl strecjs (`r bcjeh tctlr ily`jg 5L1) csqulstc`jeihl ejg plraeps cjblescihl

• Walrl cs j` d`glh `b trejsdcssc`j b`r tal f`r`jevcrusls, s` dejcpuhetc`j `btacs trect cs j`t furrljthy efaclveihl

• Ehs`, s`dl f`jtljg taet VEYV-F`R cs ehrlegy s` trejsdcsscihl taet burtalrdejcpuhetc`j w`uhg j`t ebblft rcsn

?


8/24

Ic`slfurcty YE ̀ b Efts Weroltcjo eHei`ret`ry‗F`jfhusc`js• Wal trects taet grcvl rcsn erl scdcher walj f`jscglrcjo ic`seblty ejg

ic`slfurcty ilfeusl tal petaòljs erl trejsdcsscihl

• Waet cs, a`w tal cjctceh cjblftc`js wlrl feuslg cs `b hctthl f`jslquljfl `jfl eh`feh ùtirlen ilocjs

• A`wlvlr, ilfeusl ic`slfurcty lvljts erl prlgcftlg t` `btlj cjv`hvl talf`vlrt cjblftc`j `b tal puihcf, ej cjblftc`j cs dufa d`rl hcnlhy t`

feusl e h`feh ùtirlen• Hei`ret`ry w`rnlrs iljlbct br`d alehta survlchhejfl ejg cs`hetc`j pr`t`f`hs

• W` detfa tal rcsn p`slg iy ic`seblty cjfcgljts ocvlj e acst`rcfeh retl `bhei`ret`ry efqucrlg cjblftc`js, e ic`slfurcty lvljt taet f`vlrthy cjblftse dldilr `b tal puihcf dust `ffur `jhy `jfl lvlry


9/24

Cjb`rdetc`j Ycsn--F`jfhusc`js

3

• Dcjcdeh cjb`rdetc`j rcsn rldecjs b`r O`B stugcls cj

cjbhuljze vcrusls ilfeusl gueh-usl dlta`gs aevl ehrlegyillj puihcsalg

• Vcojcbcfejt cjb`rdetc`j rcsn rldecjs b`r O`B stugcls cj talf`r`jevcrusls, iut talsl stugcls erl aedplrlg iy e hefn `bd`glh systlds

• Cjb`rdetc`j rcsn f`uhg leschy il oljlretlg iy rlslerfa `j`talr trejsdcsscihl peta`oljs


10/24

Iljlbct Ejehyscs F`jfhusc`js• B`r cjbhuljze vcrusls, tal b`hh`wcjo rlslerfa aes frctcfeh iljlbcts;

• Vtugcls taet ljaejfl vcreh or`wta br`d h`w tctlr

• Vtugcls taet hleg t` lvesc`j `b rlscgueh `r cjguflg cddujcty

• Vtugcls taet ljaejfl vcruhljfl

• Vtugcls taet ljaejfl trejsdcsscichcty

• Vtugcls taet hleg t` lvesc`j `b talreplutcfs cj usl ejg cj glvlh`pdljt

• B`r f`r`jevcrusls, tal b`hh`wcjo rlslerfa aes frctcfeh iljlbcts;

• Vtugcls taet ehtlr a`st tr`pcsd

• Vtugcls taet ljaejfl vcruhljfl

• Vtugcls taet hleg t` lvesc`j `b talreplutcfs cj glvlh`pdljt

5=


11/24

Hlss`js hlerjlg ejg oeps• Vlvlreh hlss`js wlrl hlerjlg gurcjo tal lxlfutc`j `b tal YIE,

iut talsl stejg `ut

• Ertcbcfcehcty `b gcstcjftc`js iltwllj pejgldcf ejg sles`jeh cjbhuljzestrecjs

• Hefn `b gete `j audej rlhceichcty cj hcbl sfcljfl hei`ret`rcls

• Gcbbcfuhty p`slg iy aevcjo j` rcsn iljfadern b`r w`rn wcta wchg typlpeta`oljs

• Gcbbcfuhty p`slg iy rlstrcftc`j `b YIE t` cjbhuljze ejg f`r`jevcrusls

55


12/24

Ertcbcfceh Gcstcjftc`js Iltwllj Vles`jeh

ejg ]ejgldcf Cjbhuljze Vtrecjs• ]uihcf alehta ejg p`hcfy stenla`hglrs f`dpertdljtehczl pejgldcf ejg

sles`jeh cjbhuljze strecjs, `btlj gul t` tal gcspercty cj rcsn

cddlgcetlhy ebtlr ldlroljfl• A`wlvlr, h`jo ebtlr ldlroljfl, pejgldcf strecjs `btlj f`jtrciutl t`

tal p`puhetc`j `b sles`jeh strecjs cj tal b`hh`wcjo ylers• W`gey–s sles`jeh A5J5 strecjs erl glsfljgejts `b 5351 A5J5pgd

• Ycsn br`d e hei`ret`ry effcgljt `r e ic`slfurcty cjfcgljt wcta ej `hglrpejgldcf strecj dust il ujglrst``g cj tal f`jtlxt `b e j`j-jeàvlp`puhetc`j• Wrejsdcsscichcty cs dufa h`wlr taej walj ct ldlrolg, s`dl p`rtc`j `b tal

p`puhetc`j cs pr`tlftlg

• Walrl cs j` ircoat hcjl iltwllj sles`jeh strecjs ejg `hg pejgldcfstrecjs s` rcsn cs ilst ujglrst``g es e scjohl f`jtcjuud

• Buturl seblty/slfurcty YIEs sa`uhg j`t ertcbcfcehhy slperetl `utpejgldcf br`d sles`jeh strecjs• J`t trul b`r YIEs taet lxedcjl rcsn `b ldlroljfl

59


13/24

Hefn `b Gete `j Audej Ylhceichcty Esslssdljt

cj Hcbl Vfcljfl Hei`ret`rcls

• Br`d gete cj `talr cjgustrcls, ct cs fhler taet d`st bechurls cj sebltylqucpdljt erl gul t` audej coj`rejfl, ferlhlssjlss `r jlohlft

• Beuhty ]E]Ys erl pr`guflg dufa d`rl rerlhy taej sùjg ]E]Ys erl p``rhyw`rj, p``rhy essldihlg `r p``rhy decjtecjlg

• D`rl`vlr, d`st dlfaejcfeh bechurls erl eff`dpejclg iy s`dl scojehtaet e audej dust coj`rl, dcsujglrstejg `r `vlrrcgl t` frletl e

gejolrùs sctuetc`j• Hesthy, ujhcnl cj tal jufhler, faldcfeh `r trejsp`rtetc`j slft`rs, cj e

hcbl sfcljfls hei`ret`ry, d`st p`tljtceh rlhlesls rlqucrl e audej lrr`rt` cjctcetl• Wal d`st brlquljt effcgljts erl shcps, spchhs, fljtrcbuol dcsusl ejg futs

• Lxflptc`js cj tal hcbl sfcljfls cjfhugl jetureh gcsestlrs, elr`s`h oljlretc`jlxplrcdljts ejg ejcdeh f`jtecjdljt

• Waùoa tal vest dek`rcty `b cjblftc`js br`d talsl cjfcgljts stchh rlqucrl e audejlrr`r (dcsusl `b ]E]Ys, p``r cjstehhetc`j `b bchtlrs, ltf)

56


14/24

Hefn `b Gete `j Audej Ylhceichcty Esslssdljt

cj Hcbl Vfcljfl Hei`ret`rcls• Glspctl tal cdp`rtejfl `b audej beft`rs cj grcvcjo tal rcsn `b

effcgljts, vlry hctthl gete wes bùjg br`d tal hcbl sfcljfls ljtlrprcsl

• Gete `j ejcdeh ictls cj hei`ret`rcls wes bùjg• @ur YIE aeg t` ejehòczl br`d audej rlhceichcty gete br`d `talr

cjgustrcls t` eftcvctcls cj tal hei`ret`ry

• Wacs sa`rtf`dcjo prlvljtlg e rco`rùs esslssdljt `b eis`hutl rcsn

• Wal rlhetcvl rcsn esslssdljt ‘fejflhhlg ùt— dufa `b tal ujflrtecjty

• W` eggrlss tacs sa`rtf`dcjo, prcdery rlslerfa `j audej beft`rs cj hcblsfcljfls hei`ret`rcls dust il f`jguftlg

• Ocvlj taet tal p`tljtceh f`jslquljfls `b ej effcgljt ercscjo br`d hcblsfcljfls rlslerfa lfhcpsls taet `b effcgljts cj tal faldcfeh, jufhlerejg trejsp`rtetc`j slft`rs et hlest es dufa cjvlstdljt saùhg ilglv`tlg t` audej beft`rs cj e hcbl sfcljfls hei`ret`ry

57


15/24

E Hefn `b e Ycsn Iljfadern

• @ur stugy b`fuslg `j tal FAEJOL cj rcsn p`slg iy tal dejcpuhetc`j `b wchgtypl peta`oljs• _l acoahcoat a`w dufa rcsn cjfrlesls b`r pertcfuher dejcpuhetc`js, ehta`uoa

s`dltcdls taet cjfrlesl cs br`d e h`w hlvlh• B`r lxedphl, cjfrleslg vcruhljfl/tctlr cj ettljuetlg strecjs

• V`dltcdls pejgldcf rcsn cjfrlesls t` e hlvlh ily`jg taet p`slg iy ejy wchg typl strecj• D`st `b tal tcdl, pejgldcf rcsn cjfrlesls iut t` e hlvlh hlss taej taet p`slg iy tal tal

w`rst pejgldcf strecj (j`w 53


16/24

Ylstrcftc`j `b tal YIE t` cjbhuljze vcruslsejg f`r`jevcrusls• Wal cjb`rdetc`j rcsn slftc`j `b tal YIE cgljtcbclg taet

dejcpuhetc`js `b petaòljs `talr taej tal cjbhuljze ejgf`r`jevcrusls fùhg p`sl scdcher hlvlhs `b pejgldcf rcsn

• Wal rldecjglr `b ùr stugy lxedcjlg kust `jl f`dp`jljt `bp`tljtceh pejgldcf rcsns, tal buhh suctl `b wacfa saùhg il

f`jscglrlg tòltalr es pert `b e f`dprlaljscvl YIE• Wacs f`dprlaljscvl YIE saùhg pr`vcgl e slt `b iljfaderns;

• Acoalst t`hlreihl rcsn `b w`rncjo wcta petaòljs taet furrljthy lxcst vs`jls taet erl lxtcjft/fùhg lv`hvl

• Acoalst t`hlreihl rcsn w`rncjo et ejy pertcfuher f`jtecjdljt hlvlh (IVH7,IVH6, IVH6L)

52


17/24

YIEs Epphclg t` Vplfcbcf Lxplrcdljts• D`vcjo b`rwerg, glfcsc`j-denlrs dey il esnlg t` lvehuetl tal rcsn

ejg iljlbcts p`slg iy splfcbcf lxplrcdljts, lctalr cj orejt pr`p`sehs `r

cj cjstctutc`jeh rlvclws• @ur YIE wes glscojlg t` il uslg es e bhlxcihl rlblrljfl g`fudljt taetfùhg il uslg t` esslss rcsn `b ejy lxplrcdljt rlhlvejt t` O`B stugcls

• E scdphl ujglrstejgcjo `b tal faejol cj rcsn fej il ìtecjlg cj bcvlstlps

• Cgljtcby tal strecj w`rnlg `j ejg glsfrcil cts pr`plrtcls rlhlvejt t` pejgldcfrcsn (Y=, fesl betehcty retl, DFD rlscstejfl)

• \jglrstejg a`w tal pr`p`slg lxplrcdljt F@\HG ehtlr ejy `b talslpr`plrtcls

• Lxedcjl a`w tal pr`p`slg faejol F@\HG ebblft prìeichcty `b ej ùtirlen

lsfepcjo h`feh f`jtr`h (YIE slftc`j 2.2)• Lxedcjl a`w tal pr`p`slg faejol F@\HG ebblft f`jslquljfls `b e ohìeh

ùtirlen (YIE slftc`j 2.?)• Duhtcphy talsl tw` cjfrlesls tòltalr t` ìtecj e plrsplftcvl `j faejol cj

rcsn

5?


18/24

YIEs Epphclg t` Vplfcbcf Lxplrcdljts• Lxedphl 5; _aet cs tal rcsn `b p`slg iy lxplrcdljts taet cjfhugl

vcruhljfl beft`rs br`d 5351 A5J5 cjbhuljze cj e 9==3 A5J5strecj

• Vlftc`j 2.2 stetls taet vcruhljfl g`ls j`t cjfrlesl tal prìeichcty taet ejùtirlen lsfepls h`feh f`jtr`h

•Vlftc`j 2.? stetls taet ohìeh f`jslquljfls sfehl hcjlerhy wcta fesl betehctyretl

• Wal gcbblrljfl cj tal fesl betehcty retls `b talsl strecjs cs slvlreh `rglrs `bdeojctugl, suoolstcjo taet f`jslquljfls fùhg cjfrlesl iy slvlreh `rglrs `bdeojctugl br`d ej effcgljt wcta tacs strecj f`dperlg t` e wchg-typl 9==3

A5J5 strecj• Vcjfl prìeichcty cs ujfaejolg ejg f`jslquljfls cjfrlesl, tal rcsn `b tacs typl

`b lxplrcdljt cjfrlesls iy slvlreh `rglrs `b deojctugl

51


19/24

YIEs Epphclg t` Vplfcbcf Lxplrcdljts• Lxedphl 9; _aet cs tal rcsn p`slg iy

lxplrcdljts taet ecd t` frletl

ejtcoljcfehhy gcstcjft strecjs `b e rlfljthyfcrfuhetcjo sles`jeh cjbhuljze strecj

• Vlftc`j 2.2 sa`ws taet ejtcoljcfehhy gcstcjftstrecjs aevl e 9-6x cjfrlesl cj rcsn `b lsfepl.

• Vlftc`j 2.? sa`ws taet ejtcoljcfehhy gcstcjftstrecjs dey cjbhcft 5=x d`rl ohìeh gletas.

• Walrlb`rl, rcsn cjfrlesls iy rùoahy 9=-6=x

• Ylfehh taet ct cs ujnj`wj cb ejy chhjlssls feuslg

iy ej effcgljt wcta sles`jeh cjbhuljze vcruswùhg supphldljt `r supphejt sles`jeh cjblftc`js

53


20/24

YIEs Epphclg t` Vplfcbcf Lxplrcdljts• A`wlvlr, tal dlejcjo `b tacs rcsn cjfrlesl cs gcbbcfuht t`

cjtlrprlt cj tal eisljfl `b stejgergs b`r rcsn t`hlrejfl

• Cs e 5==x cjfrlesl cj rcsn br`d e h`w hlvlh subbcfcljt t` j`t bujg talrlslerfa0

• Cs 5=x0 G`ls ct dettlr cb w`rn cs o`cjo `j g`wj tal aehh `j wchg typlpetaòljs wcta orletlr hlvlhs `b rcsn0

• Wacs cjb`rdetc`j cs subbcfcljt t` stetl taet d`rl f`jtr`hs ejg dlesurls

saùhg il tenlj t` f`jtr`h cjblftc`j rcsn br`d tacs d`gcbclg petaòljtaej tal wchg-typl petaòlj

• Ehs`, iljfa rlslerfalrs dey j`t il bedchcer ljùoa wcta tallpcgldc`hòcfeh pr`plrtcls `b petaòljs t` pr`plrhy

faereftlrczl talcr strecjs• Oucgls `r t``hs erl jllglg t` leschy ìtecj peredltlr vehuls b`r wchg

typl strecjs ejg, plraeps, t` ecg wcta tal fehfuhetc`js

9=


21/24

\sl `b 5351 A5J5 pgd es e F`dperet`r • Cj tal suddercls `b `ur YIE, wl gcsfuss rcsn `b O`B strecjs

rlhetcvl t` tal rcsn p`slg iy tal 5351 A5J5pgd strecj

• Wal buhh tlxt ljeihls e f`dpercs`j `b tal rcsn `b ejy dejcpuhetc`j eoecjstejy iljfadern

• Wal rlvcslg g`fudljt wchh aevl d`rl f`dperet`rs cj talsuddercls

• Ehs`, 5351 A5J5pgd wchh j`t il tal acoalst rcsn `b ehh ilfeusl `b tal prl-lxcstcjo cddujcty cj tal p`puhetc`j gul t` tal fcrfuhetc`j `b 9==3A5J5pgd

• Wacs f`dperet`r wes fa`slj ilfeusl et tal tcdl talrl wes

hcdctlg gcsfussc`j `b e bujgcjo d`ret`rcud b`r w`rn `j wchgtypl vlrsc`js `b 5351 A5J5pgd, s` wl glfcglg ct wes erles`jeihl iljfadern b`r ‘dexcdud ehh`weihl rcsn—

95


22/24

\sl `b 5351 A5J5 pgd es e F`dperet`r

• E jlw f`dperet`r; 53


23/24

\sl `b 5351 A5J5 pgd es e F`dperet`r

• Wal usl `b ejy `talr strecj es e f`dperet`r cs erictrery

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Date post:	07-Jul-2018
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Risk and Benefit Analysis (RBA) of GOF Research: Gaps and Future Considerations (Rocco Casagrande)

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