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Risk
Risk Assessment Overv iew
Dr. Att ia Hus sien Gomaa
Maintenance Engin eer ing Cons ultant
2008
Engin eer ing s ervice - Am erican Un iversi ty in Cairo (AUC)
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Risk 2Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007
Objectives:
Minimize the risk of failures/hazards
Minimize Hazard (HSE effect)
Maximum Operation Efficiency
Optimal Program (Maintenance,
Inspection, Job, item) Maximize Reliability & Availability
Minimize Unplanned/Planned
Minimize Downtime
Minimize Cost
Risk Assessment
(Proact ive Approach)
It is a powerfu l systemat ic methodologyto m inim ize the risk of failure/hazards
for cr i t ical act iv i t ies o r i tems o r sys tems
Cost
Balance
Safety &
Quality
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Risk 3Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007
Modern Approaches: (System level)
Risk Based Maintenance - Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM)Optimal maintenance Program
Risk Based Inspection (RBI)
Optimal inspection Program
Classical Approaches: (Item level) Application Root Cause Analysis (RCA) Item hazard
Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) Item failure
Job Safety Analysis (JSA) Job hazard
Hazard Operation Study (HAZOP) Design hazard
Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis (FMEA) Failure hazard
Risk Assessment Approaches
(Proact ive Approach)
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Risk 4Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007
Top 5 Targets
(2)To
prevent
failures/
Hazards
(3)To
discover
hidden
failures/Hazards
(4)To
detect
early
Failures/Hazards
(5)To
Minimize
the r isk of
failures/Hazards
(1)To
correct
failures/
Hazards
Reactive
Pol icy 80 Proact ive
Pol icy >15
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Risk
Why Risk Assessment?
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Risk 6Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007
Causes Of Inc idents %:
1) 30% Poor Maintenance & Insp ect ion25% Backlog, 20% Qual ity, 15% Spares, 20% Planning & Feedback,
5% Poor housekeeping, 15% Others
2) 25% Process & Operator error
90% Unsafe acts & 10% Unsafe conditions such as poor layout
3) 20% Poor Management (Process, HSE, Maintenanc e, .. etc.)
70% Information, Planning & Control, 20% Awareness & Culture, 10% others
4) 15% Design Deficiency
50% Design error, 35% Mater ials, 15% others
5) 10% Oth ers
Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents
Based on d ata from 5 Egypt ian Companies
Last 10 years Acc ident & Incident History & Brain Storming
Prepared b y Dr. Att ia Gomaa, 2007, Inpr int.
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80%
12%
5% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Human factors Process
factors
Enviromental
factors
Others
Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents
Based on d ata from 5 Egypt ian Companies
Last 10 years Acc ident & Incident History & Brain Storming
Prepared b y Dr. Att ia Gomaa, 2007, Inpr int.
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8/9Risk 8Risk Based Appro ach Part I - Dr. Att ia Gom aa - 2007
%Main Item
301) Piping systems
252) Tanks
83) Heat Exchangers
74) Valves
55) Towers46) Compressors
37) Pumps
28) Gages
16Others100Total
Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents
Based on data from 5 Egypt ian Companies
Last 10 years Acc ident & Incident History & Brain Storming
Prepared b y Dr. Att ia Gomaa, 2007, Inp rint.
Crit ical Items
(A
Ru le 80/20)
Failure/Hazard
Improvement:
RCA
FMEA
RCM
RBI
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