Risk Factor Identified, Quantified, and Build-In impacts in Schedule Risk Analysis

Common practice : Schedule Risk Analysis process

• All identified risks that have impact on schedule are basically assignedinto activities on schedule.

• Some risks may assigned to multiple activities, hence an activity can beinfluenced by multiple risks. However, many users are not aware thatprior assigning process, risks need to be categorized either Risk Event orRisk Factor.

• Ignoring Risk Factor is “risk” to schedule risk analysis process, that willlead to distorted results.

• This paper intended to briefly shown how much the variance couldderived from the simulation output “with” and “without” Risk FactorAND also hoping for feedback on how to improve the process.

• Primavera Risk Analysis is a tool used for this presentation and it isassumed that the reader(s) has understanding and experiences of usingit.

Risk Factor VS Risk Event

• Risk Event

Is an incident/occasion that may or may not happen, that affects through impacts on particular activities in the project.

• Risk Factor

Is an unknown element that affects the project. It is expressed as % and resulting from it, reduces or increases the activities it affects.

Examples

Risk Events Risk Factors

Unavailability of Resources Weather

Nobody is willing to do casting, hence

casting works shall delayed.All Offshore installation activities will prolonged 50% longer than planned duration.

Land Subside Productivity Labor

Zone A1/D1 has weak ground, piling work may get effected in case soil strengthening not properly done.

Fabrication time will takes 20% longer than initial planned.

Transportation Strike Vendor Performance

Delivery time of materials may extended by 2 weeks, due to strike attack planned by workers union

LD Exposure will goes up by 50% if work progressing continue on a flat line.

“Without” Risk FactorAll risks are taken as risk events.

Simulation on Project A (dummy).Construction of 25 Storey Ceylon Service Apartment

All risks (Risk Factor + Risk Events) are assigned to activities in quantitative tab

49%

49%

49%

50%

50%

50%

53%

54%

54%

55%ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6680:012 - Landslide and Subside

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6690:012 - Landslide and Subside

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6680 - Water Reticulation

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6690 - Road Work & Lighting

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7530 - Formworkon Columns

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6930 - Formworkon Columns

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2370 - Formwork Pile Cap & Install Reinforcing

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7230 - Formworkon Columns

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2330 - Formwork on Column

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2090 - Formwork Pile Cap & Install Reinforcing

Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity: Entire Plan - All tasks

Water Reticulation and Road Work& Lighting tasks have highest durationsensitivity. Noted these two activities(Infrastructure) are planned at the lastquarter of project duration.

2%

-2%

3%

5%

-7%

9%

16%

16%

23%

25%006 - Availability of Resources

012 - Landslide and Subside

005 - Late drawing & Instructions

009 - Suitability of Materials

001 - Changes in Work

002 - Subsurfaces Geological

013 - Soil availability of Land Fill

001 - Changes in Work

001 - Changes in Work

014 - Insolvency of Subcontractor

Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity

Risk affects multiple activities. In This presentation, Risk Availability of resources and Landslide & Subside gives effect most.

P80 stands at 17 April 2015

“With” Risk FactorImpact plan model is a combination of risk events

and risk factors.

Simulation on Project A (dummy).

Construction of 25 Storey Ceylon Service Apartment

Determine Risk Factor

Take out Risk Events (Risk Factor )from Quantitative tab. Edit Risk Factor dialogue box.

Set 3 point estimates in % ranges and % likelihood.

In this example, weset zero likelihood of correlation

Assigning Risk Factor to task. In this example, we apply risk to entire section of the WBS (Summaries). Indirectly it reflects correlation due to common cause.

Important Notes to understand. Sources from Primavera Risk Analysis Help.

04/04/2015 17:00 27/06/2015 01:00 18/09/2015 09:00

Distribution (start of interval)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Hits

0% 18/02/2015 16:00

5% 17/03/2015 17:00

10% 02/04/2015 09:00

15% 13/04/2015 09:00

20% 20/04/2015 09:00

25% 27/04/2015 09:00

30% 01/05/2015 11:00

35% 08/05/2015 09:00

40% 13/05/2015 17:00

45% 18/05/2015 17:00

50% 25/05/2015 09:00

55% 01/06/2015 09:00

60% 05/06/2015 14:00

65% 11/06/2015 14:00

70% 18/06/2015 14:00

75% 24/06/2015 15:00

80% 01/07/2015 16:00

85% 13/07/2015 09:00

90% 29/07/2015 14:00

95% 24/08/2015 09:00

100% 30/11/2015 10:00

Cu

mu

lative F

req

uen

cy

Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Entire Plan : Finish Date

P80 now stands at 1 July 2015

72%

72%

72%

72%

72%

72%

73%

73%

73%

74%ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7080 - Reinforcement for Beam/Slab

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7040 - Reinforcement works on Column

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7190 - Formwork for Beam/Slab

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7100 - Reinforcement works on Column

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7010 - Formwork for Beam/Slab

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7110 - Formwork on Column

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7000 - Concrete for Column

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7020 - Reinforcement for Beam/Slab

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7050 - Formwork for Column

ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7030 - Concrete for Beam/Slab

Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity: Entire Plan - All tasks

2%

-2%

3%

5%

-7%

9%

16%

16%

23%

25%006 - Availability of Resources

012 - Landslide and Subside

005 - Late drawing & Instructions

009 - Suitability of Materials

001 - Changes in Work

002 - Subsurfaces Geological

013 - Soil availability of Land Fill

001 - Changes in Work

001 - Changes in Work

014 - Insolvency of Subcontractor

4-Storey Elaeis Condominium for Sime Darby Development (Pre-mitigated)Duration Sensitivity

Not much changes as observedon the criticality rank

More activities are sensitive to the risk Impact. Noted at this time,that they are those activities (Structure)that planned at earlier stage of construction

Risk: Availability of Resources confirmed “driving” project schedule. Pull out from Risk Factor menu – Show Tornado

Conclusions.

• P80 for both models have different suggestion dates

“With” Risk Factor = 17 April 2015

“Without” Risk Factor = 1 July 2015

Variance = 75 days

• The output of Risk Factor model had indicated that, Major ConstructionWorks are critical to manage properly with Risk: Availability Resourcesand Risk: Productivity Labor tagged along with, rather than havingInfrastructure works as crucial.

• Incorporating Risk Factor would enabling The User to bring true realityof the project environment into the model AND give some excellentreflection of risk exposure.

Thank You