Risk Management Brian Addis

Define risk management. Explain the elements. View examples. Look at some of the studies. Discuss methods of application.

Over the past 60 years Airline safety has improved dramatically. Corporate flying started in the 50s and has

improved dramatically. All branches of military flying have improved. General aviation hasn’t changed much in safety

statistics. Different people making the same old mistakes.

Total Risk Identified Risk Unidentified Risk Unacceptable Risk Acceptable Risk Residual Risk

1. Identified Risk: Risk that has been determined through various analysis techniques. 2. Unidentified Risk: Self explanatory. (“Some unidentified risks are identified when a mishap occurs,” FAA, 8083-9A.) Question on Point 2: Is Risk analysis a “pre-event analysis” or “post event analysis?” 3. Total Risk: The sum of Identified and Unidentified Risk.

4. Unacceptable Risk: Risk which cannot be tolerated by managing activity. It is a subset of identified risk that must be controlled or eliminated. Example: Loading your airplane with 26 rattle snakes free to slither anywhere they wish while you are flying.

5. Acceptable Risk: Acceptable risk is the part of identified risk that is allowed to persist without further engineering or management action. Example: Flying a single engine airplane at night…….or in the daytime for that matter.

6. Residual Risk: The risk that is left over after system safety efforts have been employed. It is not the same as acceptable risk. Residual risk is the sum of acceptable risk and unidentified risk.

Example: Flying my single engine airplane in the daytime with snakes that someone else put in the plane that I didn’t know anything about.

Hazards Risk management process (the matrix) Likelihood Situational awareness Mitigating risk IMSAFE check list PAVE checklist

Illness Do I have an illness or any symptoms of an illness?

Medication Have I been taking prescription or over-the-counter drugs?

Stress Am I under psychological pressure from the job? Worried about financial matters, health problems or family discord?

Alcohol Have I been drinking within eight hours? Within 24 hours?

Fatigue Am I tired and not adequately rested?

Eating Am I adequately nourished?

Pilot Aircraft EnVironment External Press

Could this concept be simplified so you can take something usable

with you today?

Weighing the risk against the benefit derived from the act of taking the risk.

Example: I want to land close to the dock so I don’t have a long taxi time. There are numerous watercraft in the area of the dock.

Risk: Collision with a watercraft. Benefit: Save 6 minutes.

Example 2: The ceiling is 1,500 ft. tops are at 3,000 ft. Freezing level is 2,000 and there are no icing advisories. I do not have de-ice equipment. Tomorrow’s forecast is clear but I really want to get to the seaplane conference Friday night for the fish fry.

Risk: Still a chance of icing in the clouds.

Benefit: Eat fish and show off the new paint job on my 185.

Small risk, small benefit

Assessing Risk can be Subjective

1. Large Risk, Small Benefit 2. Small Risk Large Benefit 3. Large Risk, Large Benefit 4. Small Risk, Small Benefit Survey says…………

Remember the presentation last year?

Affective Domain (our opinion) Attribution Bias Confirmation Bias

How do I view other drivers?

Confirmation Bias Attribution Bias

Sometimes, the pilot does not have the knowledge, skill or capability to make a “risk benefit analysis” assessment.

Listen to this example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IrclNLxKt8

Increased heart rate and blood pressure Flood of Adrenalin followed by… Flood of cortisol Chemical balance stage Exhaustion stage …….and the pilot thought it was okay to continue to Bangor.

Files for 10,000 feet in the heart of an icing advisory.

Does not turn on or use de-ice or anti-ice equipment until in trouble.

Unable to see into the future and asses risk while at 0 degrees C.

Unable to realize what an acute stress experience does to the human body.

Understands nothing about risk management. In the end, the controller saved her life.

Why do instructors and Pilot Examiners study cases like this?

Did a 709 ride result in the event? If I (the examiner) tested that person

for an instrument rating, would I have missed this deficiency?

2008 accident involving a State Trooper helicopter.

Impacted terrain 3.2 miles north of runway 19R at Andrews Air Base.

Crashed during an instrument approach. Four fatalities Pilot was VFR but encountered IMC and

decided to do an instrument approach.

Probable Cause: Pilot was making a rapid descent on a non-precision approach in an effort to regain visual contact with the ground. Could not arrest the descent rate and hit the ground at a high rate of vertical speed. Pilot did not use proper risk management analysis.

Think in terms of analyzing risk. (This will help the pilot make a proper assessment)

Avoid the “High risk, low benefit” decisions.

Asses yourself, PAVE or IMSAFE or some other method.

37