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Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions Motorcyclists Paul Hewson [email protected] 10th January 2012
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Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Motorcyclists
Paul [email protected]
10th January 2012
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Overview
What works?
Workshop
Presentation
Conclusions
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Headline figures
For Engand 2009 (latest RRCGB)
� Deaths: 402
� Serious: 4,809
� Slight: 13,824
(add 86 deaths for Wales/Scotland/Northern Ireland)
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
1940 1960 1980 2000
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Bike fatalities
Year
Kill
ed
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
1940 1960 1980 2000
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Bike fatalities and ownership
Year
Kill
ed
500
1000
1500
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Global Problem
� Around 1.2 million deaths due to road collisions globally(mainly in developing world where motorcycles are relativelymore common)
� In post-industrial countries, typically 1-2% of traffic, 15-25%of fatalities
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Global solutions
� Helmets (compulsory in UK)
� Pre-licence training (minimal training now compulsory in UK)
� Post licence training not linked with licensing - no idea ofpopularity (estimated in US that around 1 in 4 P2W usershave attended some kind of training)
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Hierarchy of Evidence
� Systematic review
� Literature review
� Randomised controlled trial
� Case controlled study
� Cohort study
� Cross sectional study
� Anecdote
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Cochrane Review
� High standards of critical review
� Produce a “live” document
� Good place to start
� We will review one in the workshop
� Is there any evidence that training interventions reduce PTWcasualties?
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Data modelling
� Overlapping idea - what is the evidence that age/experienceare beneficial
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
The Daily Telegraph 22/10/200
Born-again bikers who are riding for a fallBy David Bamber, Home Affairs CorrespondentPOLICE have identified an increasing risk on the roads from affluent middle-aged men
attempting to recapture their lost youth by riding powerful motorbikes.Nicknamed “Bambis” by traffic police - born-again middle-aged bikers - they have inspired
the Association of Chief Police Officers to launch a campaign to encourage bike dealers to ensurethat their middle-aged customers get the training they need to meet the challenge that newer bikespose.
Chief Insp David Short of North Yorkshire traffic police, whose research led to the currentcampaign, said: “Many of them used to ride bikes years ago but they don’t seem to realise thatbikes have advanced so much over the past 20 years that today’s machines bear little resemblanceto what they were used to. They return to biking with a little more money in their pockets andbuy bikes that are actually very similar to performance bikes used in racing. They simply go toofast, lose control and hit something.”
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Before we zoom in a littleFatal casualties
biker.year
Fre
q
0
20
40
60
80
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
0−9Male
10−19Male
20−29Male
0
20
40
60
80
30−39Male
0
20
40
60
80
40−49Male
50−59Male
60−69Male
0
20
40
60
80
70−79Male
0
20
40
60
80
80−89Male
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
90−99Male
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Fatal casualties
biker.year
Fre
q
0
20
40
60
80
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
0−9Male
10−19Male
20−29Male
0
20
40
60
80
30−39Male
0
20
40
60
80
40−49Male
50−59Male
60−69Male
0
20
40
60
80
70−79Male
0
20
40
60
80
80−89Male
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
90−99Male
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
But let’s aggregate the data in a different wayFatal casualties
biker.year
Fre
q
0
20
40
60
801880Male
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
1890Male
1900Male
0
20
40
60
801910Male
0
20
40
60
801920Male
1930Male
1940Male
0
20
40
60
801950Male
0
20
40
60
801960Male
1970Male
1980Male
0
20
40
60
801990Male
0
20
40
60
80
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
2000Male
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Fatal casualties
biker.year
Fre
q
0
20
40
60
801880Male
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
1890Male
1900Male
0
20
40
60
801910Male
0
20
40
60
801920Male
1930Male
1940Male
0
20
40
60
801950Male
0
20
40
60
801960Male
1970Male
1980Male
0
20
40
60
801990Male
0
20
40
60
80
198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
2000Male
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
What is this saying
� Data from STATs19 via Data Archive for 1985-2009
� All Motorcycle casualties
� Each cohort has a similar shape (high risk as 16/17 year olds,rapid decline in injuries) but then appears to show constantinjury count)
� We don’t want to analyse tea-leaves BUT it’s hard toreconcile this with BAMBIs.
� It is easier to reconcile this with individual cohorts havingdifferent numbers of potential riders. What we see in a givenyear reflects the mix of cohorts in a given year.
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Power and Risk
� Mattson and Summala (2010): evidence that more powerfulbikes are always higher risk bikes
� Obvious comment on EU restrictions on bike power
� Our own work (Rolison et al. unpublished) also indicative thatlarge bikes are always more dangerous
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
� Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training waseffective (yes,“more research needed”)
� Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests thepattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of bikingin formative years and size of cohort.
� Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large”bikes are always relatively more dangerous
� Therefore, training may be dangerous - because we can’tmitigate the effects of “large” bikes but we make people thinkwe can)
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
� Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training waseffective (yes,“more research needed”)
� Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests thepattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of bikingin formative years and size of cohort.
� Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large”bikes are always relatively more dangerous
� Therefore, training may be dangerous - because we can’tmitigate the effects of “large” bikes but we make people thinkwe can)
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
� Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training waseffective (yes,“more research needed”)
� Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests thepattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of bikingin formative years and size of cohort.
� Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large”bikes are always relatively more dangerous
� Therefore, training may be dangerous - because we can’tmitigate the effects of “large” bikes but we make people thinkwe can)
Outline Overview What works? Workshop Presentation Conclusions
Summary
� Cochrane Collaboration found little evidence that training waseffective (yes,“more research needed”)
� Reaggregating STATs19 hints against BAMBIs - suggests thepattern of crashes we see is more due to popularity of bikingin formative years and size of cohort.
� Power analysis and (crude) bike size analysis suggest “large”bikes are always relatively more dangerous
� Therefore, training may be dangerous - because we can’tmitigate the effects of “large” bikes but we make people thinkwe can)
