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ROADMAPPING INNOVATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
Prof. Dr. Ashok VaseashtaInternational Clean Water Institute/Institute of Advanced Sciences Convergence, VA/VT
New Jersey City University ‐ A State University of New Jersey, Jersey City, NJGhitu Institute of the Electronic Engineering & Nanotechnologies
Academy of Sciences of Moldova, Chisinau, MOLDOVAMersin University, Mersin, TURKEY
presented at
Overview
Roadmapping ?Framing – Opportunities and ChallengesNanotechnology, Bio‐Technology, Information Technology, and Cognitive Sciences – State of the art and GapsAdvanced Sciences Convergence StudiesIASC
Technology Roadmap StrategiesData MiningForecasting and Predictive Modeling Example ‐ Chemical and Biological Defense
Challenges and Path Forward
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Operational Platforms
(Beyond) Advanced Sciences Convergence
Cyber Security
Convergence Study I, S, Tech and K
NATO Meetings
International Clean Water
FEMA Training
TAS –model for
IASC
Environmental Science
Consequence Management
JCTD: Peak
Business development
Business development
Business development
TSWG
DECIDECyber Smart
Cyber Exercises
Visual augmentation systemsCultural Awareness Education
Test and Evaluation
Clean Water, GIS/GPSRemote Monitoring
Defense Technologies
Distance Learning
ASC >> CISTeck
Predictive Intelligence, Roadmapping and Technology Assessment
• Predictive analytics is an area of statistics that deals with extracting information from data and using it to predict trends and behavior patterns. Often the unknown event of interest is in the future, but predictive analytics can be applied to any type of unknown whether it be in the past, present or future.
• Roadmapping is creating and delivering strategy and innovation by strategic alignment and dialogue between functions. The power of roadmapping lies in its flexibility, which can provide clarity and alignment of specific needs at all levels, including functional, organization‐wide and even collaboration between organizations.
• Technology assessment ‐ Technikfolgenabschätzung, French: évaluation des choix scientifiques et technologiques ‐ is a scientific, interactive, and communicative process that aims to contribute to the formation of public and political opinion on societal aspects of science and technology.
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# Technology Foresight & Road Mapping (TechFARM) Methodologies Family Hard or Soft Exploratory or Normative
1 Action [Options] Analysis V S N/Ex
2 Agent Modeling M&S H Ex
3 Analogies Desc H/S Ex
4 Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) V H N
5 Backcasting [Research Profiling: Patent Analysis, Text Mining] Desc S N
6 Bibliometrics Mon/Stat H/S Ex
7 Brainstorming [Brainwriting, NGP‐ Nominal Group Process] Cr S N/Ex
8 Causal Models M&S H Ex
9 Checklists for Impact Identification Desc S Ex
10 CAS (Complex Adaptive System Modeling) [Chaos] M&S H Ex
11 Correlation Analysis Stat H Ex
12 Cost‐Benefit Analysis [Monetized & Other] V H Ex
13 Creativity Workshops [Future Workshops] Cr S Ex/N
14 Cross‐Impact Analysis M&S/Stat H/S Ex
15 Decision Analysis [Utility Analyses] V S N/Ex
16 Delphi (Iterative Survey) ExOp S (H) N/Ex
17 Demographics Stat H Ex
18 Diffusion Modeling M&S H Ex
19 Economic Base Modeling [Input‐Output Analysis] M&S/V H Ex
20 Field Anomaly Relacation (FAR) Sc S Ex/N
21 Focus Groups [Panel; Workshops] ExOp S N/Ex
22 Innovation System Modeling Desc S Ex
23 Interviews ExOp S N/Ex
24 Institutional Analysis Desc S Ex
25 Long Wave Analysis Tr H Ex
26 Mitigation Analysis Desc S N
27 Monitoring [Environmental Scanning, Technology Watch] Mon S Ex
28 Morphological Analysis Desc S N/Ex
29 Multicreiteria Decision Analyses [DEA‐ Data Envelopment Analysis] H N
30 Multiple Perspectives Assessment Desc S N/Ex
31 Organizational Analysis Desc S Ex
32 Participatory Techniques ExOp S N
33 Precursor Analysis Tr H Ex
34 Relevance Trees [Futures Wheel] Desk/V S N/Ex
35 Requirements Analysis [Needs Analysis, Attribute X Technology Matrix] Desc/V S/H N
36 Risk Analysis Desc/Stat H/S N/Ex
37 Roadmapping [Product‐technology Roadmapping] Desc H/S N/Ex
38 Scenarios [Scenarios with consistency checks; Scenario Mgmt.] Sc H/S N/Ex
39 Scenario‐Simulation [Gaming; Interactive Scenarios] Sc/M&S S N/Ex
40 Science Fiction Analysis Cr S N
41 Social Impact Assessment [Socio‐Economic Impact Assessment] Desc S N/Ex
42 Stakeholder Analysis [Policy Capture, Assumptional Analysis] Desc/V S Ex
43 State of the Future Index (SOFI) Desc H/S Ex
44 Sustainability Analysis [Life Cycle Analysis] Desc/M&S H Ex
45 Systems Simulation M&S H Ex
46 Technological Substitution
47 Technology Assessment M&S, Desc H, H/S Ex
48 Trend Extrapolation [Growth Curve Fitting & Projection] Tr H Ex
49 Trend Impact Analysis Tr/Stat H N/Ex
50 TRIZ Cr H N/Ex
51 Vision Generation Cr S N/Ex
52 Web 2.0/3.0 ‐ Social networks Tr H (S) Ex
**Family Codes**
Cr‐ Creativity; Desc‐ Descriptive & Matrices; Stat‐ Statistical;
ExOp‐ Expert Opinion; Mon‐ Monitoring & Intelligence; Currently in use
M&S‐ Modeling & Simulation; SC‐ Scenarios; Tr‐ Trend Analyses; Planned (immediate)
V‐ Valuing/Decision/Economic; H‐ hard (quantitative, S‐ soft (qualitative); Planned (future)
Method Applicability Environment Rating
1‐10*
Multiple Regression Analysis
When two or more independent factors are involved. Widely used for intermediate term forecasting. Assesses which factors to include; can be used to develop alternate models with different factors.
8
Nonlinear Regression
Used for non‐linear relationship between variables. Frequently used when time is the independent variable.
7
Trend Analysis Uses linear and nonlinear regression with time as the explanatory variable. Used to determine patterns over time.
9
Moving Average Analysis
Forecasts future values based on a weighted average of past values. Easy to update due to simple averages.
7
Weighted Moving Averages
Widely used where repeated forecasts are required. Uses methods like sum‐of‐the‐digits and trend adjustment methods. Very powerful and economical.
8
Adaptive Filtering
Used for moving average this includes a method of learning from past errors. Responds to changes in the relative importance of trend, seasonal, and random factors.
7
Exponential Smoothing
A moving average form of time series forecasting. Used with seasonal patterns and relatively easy to adjust for past errors. Several different forms are used, depending on presence of trend or cyclical variations. Used to prepare follow‐on forecasts and where many forecasts must be prepared.
7
Hodrick‐Prescott Filter
Uses filter mechanism to obtain a long‐term trend component in a time series. Reduces a given series into stationary and non‐stationary components such that the sum of squares of the series from the non‐stationary component is minimal, with a penalty on changes to the derivatives of the non‐stationary component.
6
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
Used for providing decision support with numerous and sometimes conflicting evaluations. Provides a compromise in conflicting data. Used for risk assessment and forecasting.
6
COTS Modeling and Simulation
Modeling describes a situation through a series of equations. Allows testing of impact of changes in various factors otherwise time‐consuming to construct. Requires user programming or purchase of packages such as SIMSCRIPT. Powerful in developing and testing strategies not otherwise evident.
7
Certainty models
Used to predict only the most likely outcome. Used as "what if" analysis ‐ often done with computer‐based spreadsheets.
6
Probabilistic Models
Uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to deal with uncertainty. Provides a range of possible outcomes for each set of events.
7
*subjective
A set of strategic tools that support government and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response ‐ anticipate multiple, plausible futures.Specific Methods
NBIC Convergence – Environmental Scanning (current trends/monitor weak signals)Delphi Survey Method – expert elicitation/Expert Technical PanelsRobust Factor Analysis and Strategic DevelopmentComputerized Modelling and Dynamic SimulationTechnology Foresight MethodExtrapolation MethodScenarios planningSocial Networking – monitor trends and methodologies/Virtual meetingsPredictive Intelligence
Technology Roadmapping‐Methodology
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Defense Against CBRNE
PSYOPS
ComplicatedNon‐linearKineticAsymmetricGame of illusionUnpredictableNo rules of engagementContradict Ethical values…
Dual Use Technologies
Enhanced data fusion (collection/analysis)
Risk Assessment and Management
Consequence Management
Convergence of technologies Enhanced situational awareness
Stand‐off detection
Dial‐a‐beacon (remote and auto
detection of “new” contaminants)
Sample in‐answer out
In‐situ sampled (point contact) detection
Triaging pathogens and forensics
Eradicate contaminants at POO (point of origin)
Assessment (LC, LCA, LCO, …)
Mitigation strategies – environmental management
Use of decision support tools
Ecosystem of Innovations
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Advanced Science Convergence
Convergent science study refers to the strategic and synergistic coalescence of multiple disciplines that create a unified system to solve intractable problems.
Provides new capabilities to understand natural world, human society & scientific research as closely coupled, complex & hierarchal systems.
Approach
Early monitoring , identification, and surveillance of novel trans‐disciplinary scientific and technological advances to break through existing solution paradigms.
Understanding of far‐reaching, visionary, yet undefined and achievable outcomes that can be described in terms of desired actions or qualities of the eventual system.
Nucleation/Genesis
Convergence of Fields
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NBIC Convergence to Bridge Gaps in Technology
Convergent science (a new paradigm) study refers to synergistic integration of major areas, viz. ‐ nanoscience and nanotechnology, biotechnology, biosciences, and genetic engineering, information technology, and cognitive sciences including cognitive neurosciences (NBIC).Exceptional recent advances are due to interfaces between previously separate fields of sciences & technologies. The transforming tools of NBIC provide new capabilities to understand natural world, human society & scientific research as closely coupled complex & hierarchical systems.The convergence of diverse technologies is based on the human ability to understand and manipulate matter at nanoscale.This stimulated integration of technologies at nanoscale has aided the convergence of technologies and sciences in human evolution.Novelty, originality, and timeliness is based on material unity at the nanoscale and technology integration from that scale.
Dimensions Comparable with many Fundamental Physical Quantities
Effective free‐path length of the electrons, phonons, etc.De Broglie electron wavelengthPenetration depth of the magnetic fieldAbrikosov vortex lattice, Josephson fluxons, Magnetic flux quantum (Qubits)Radius of electron correlation length (coherent length)Wavelength of the electromagnetic fieldCyclotron Radius in Magnetic fieldRelaxation length of the quasi particles
Materials by design – specs based on materials vs. materials based on specs
NanostructuredNanoparticlesNanosized
} < 100 nm
Micro- d < 2 nm
Meso- 2 < d < 50 nm
Macro- d > 50 nm
IUPAC recommendation
Why Nanomaterials
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DELPHI: Predictive Modeling in Technology Assessment
Research Methodology…
Each technology/application area was evaluated by each expert panel member on three relevant dimensions:Commercial PotentialTechnical FeasibilityPublic Policy Issues
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Research Methodology…Each technology/application area was evaluated by each expert panel member on three relevant dimensions:
Commercial PotentialTechnical FeasibilityPublic Policy Issues
TechFARM
ADAMS
NESTTS
Data Analytics, Big Data and Decision Support Tools
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Evolutionarypresent
Impregnated suit & masksPlacing pigeon in cageat trench entranceHandheld decon unit & decon tank truckTrench fan and entrance way
Impregnated suit & masksPlacing pigeon in cageat trench entranceHandheld decon unit & decon tank truckTrench fan and entrance way
Revolutionary5‐15 Years
Accelerated Evolutionary0‐2 Years
Disruptive2‐5 years
Suit, gloves, boots & various masksPoint & “standoff” detectionHandheld decon unit including tank trucksShelters and filters
Current approach
CISTecKApproach
Future Combat systemsAdaptive, self‐reflective and Self‐MorphologySymbolic RegressionNanorobotics in vasculopathiesPlasmonic computation 3D data StorageMolecular Surveillance & Detection of BiothreatAgentsUbiquitous testing, validation &Simulation ‐Superbrain
NanocatalysisBio Engineered materialsMeta materials – NRIE‐textileAI and Self‐assemblyRoboticsGenomics
Evolutionary and Disruptive Approach vs. Revolutionary Approach
Technology Assessment MatrixEmerging Significant Very Significant
Very unlikely
Likely
Unknown
Feasible
Very Feasible
Minor
Sensor network grid
Moderate
Water monitoring nano‐bio sensors
SprayableColorometric
sensors
SERS
Electrochemical chem/bio sensors
Self‐sustaining power generators for e‐m sensors & warfare
Nanocomposites for suits & wearable electronics
Smart Biocidalcoatings
Implantable Nanoarrays
Nanophotonics
Directed evolutional Chips
Water filtersNano encapsulated health monitors
Metabolic prosthesis
Brain‐machine interface
Pathology linked health records
Personalized and timed release drug/vaccine
delivery
Smart nanoimplants
Major
Quantum Computing
Wireless Cloud Computing
Aging model and human performance
enhancement
Millipede memory
Holographic data storage
Wireless transport of energy
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Trends in Nanotechnology
Smart materials with nano films, structures
Integration of functions and structure in membranes, fabrics, fibers, self powered entities, biomimetic materials
New environmental leaps in performance: e.g. water filtration and purification, biocidals, bioremediation and decontamination
Nano sensor networks, tracking capacities – nano‐electro‐mechanical systems
Wearable personalized nano sensors with data and communications capabilities
Energy and power efficiencies improvements, battery power management
Smart dust capability for widespread human , environments surveillance
Computational devices embedded in consumer, commercial goods
Functional, programmable nanostructures for controlled drug delivery, performance of implants, protheses
New devices, building materials and fabrics that incorporate nano film solar power and are climate responsive
Trends in Biotechnology
Control, improvements in living organisms
Bio‐sensing at the micro and nano level, micro and nano electromechanical systems
Integration with wireless, RFID, photonics‐molecular level cameras
Tissue engineering, artificial organs, implants and protheses
Targeted drug delivery and use of in vitro capacities
Rapid scalable bio‐assays for molecule ID, medical diagnosis and forensics
Personalized medicine using large data sets of patient information, disease statistics, gene sequences and genotypes
Genetically modified insects to counter pathogen carriers
In silico‐ computer testing and comprehensive modelling for drug characteristics, side effects and receptor simulation – lab on chip
Molecular recognition –targeted drug delivery to organs, tumours
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Trends in Information Technology & Ambient Intelligence (ICT)
Progress toward ubiquitous access and embedded systems
Open source collaborative tools and deeper peer‐ to peer functionality, pervasive social networks
Continued migration towards device and functional convergence
Info‐based 3D models and manufactured structures, distributed fabrication
Broader object based nodes and networks ‐ Smart and connected systems
Pervasive sensor networks ‐ dynamic simulation and modelling;
Gaming for personal and organizational decisions, risk abatement and learning
Emerging horizons for faster, exponentially more powerful encryption, quantum information
Sustained info markets growth for surveillance, sensor networks, tracking capacities, nano‐electromechanical systems
Wearable, implantable personalized micro‐nano‐bio info sensors with data and communications capabilities
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Nanoantennas, Detection/sensing, plasmonics, system integration
Human performance enhancement, Protection, Battle space, Ethics
Nanophotonics, Detection/sensing, nm detection, system integration
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Technology Gaps
Biointerfaces – effective and robust integration of biological and engineered systems.Biodetection – sensitivity and broad‐spectrum sampling capabilities of autonomous detection systems.
Molecular signature development and bioinformatics analyses for broad‐spectrum threat characterization and countermeasures.Biotic‐abiotic interface development for diagnostics, sensor design and cognitive augmentation.Systemic host bioresponse ‐rapid recognition/differentiation of chem.‐bio threat exposure.Miniaturization of multiple analytical systems on a single platform ‐ sensor network.
Bioforensics – physico‐chemical characterization of engineered and emerging biothreatsBiotoxicity of NanomaterialsSelf Sustaining, self‐healing, and adaptive nanomaterialsSample in/Answer out – sensor devices and systemsPortability – light weight, autonomous, bi‐directional capabilityMultiplexing, parallel processing and Networking solutionsStand‐alone (bio) Energy harvesting
3D Terabit Memory
Ultra Sensitive Bio-sensorNano Fluidic Circuits
Ultra Compact light source & integrated photonics
Goal ‐SOC, NOC, NP‐OIC, SoF
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Summary and Way Forward
Convergence Activities – DELPHI, Data mining, and Outreach
CONUS and OCONUS outreach
Convergence of fields for revolutionary vs. evolutionary approach
Identified Significant Gaps
Specific RecommendationChem.‐bio sensing with high specificity and selectivity using nanomaterials
Nanofiber based composite material for lightweight, breathable, e‐textile and wearable electronics textile.
Timed and targeted release of drugs
Regenerative medicine/tissue engineering & NanoMedicine
Prevention, Diagnosis, and Therapy –more sensitive detection technologies
Application specific recommendations
Predictive intelligence platform
CONUS Outreach
SME
Advisers
S&T Conf Advisers
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OCONUS Outreach
27
SME
28
Location, Key People and Experts