Rob KeefeWHR
National Real Estate Update
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
“We are a specialized relocation company solely focused on advancing the lives of our clients’ employees by delivering high-touch relocation services that are customized to the culture and business practices of our clients”
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Background• President of regional real estate brokerage • Real estate development company• Supervised title agency • President of mortgage broker/bank• Active in organized real estate
– WRA Chair (2012)– NAR Director/Taxation Committee
4
5
6
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Agenda
• National real estate market conditions
• Market issues
• Brokerage trends
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
33%
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Market Issues
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Top 20 Markets for Drop in Listing Count (Year over Year)
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Inventory Compression• California down to 2.6 months inventory, a
40% drop from 2012
• Sacramento at 1.1 months inventory
• Seattle (King County) at 1.4 months inv a 50% drop from 2012
• Minneapolis at 3.0 months
• Washington DC less than 2 months
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
One cause of listing drop
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
20 MSA’s with highest average listing age
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
A tale of two cities
• Sacramento, CA
• Median listing age = 27 days
• Y/Y change in listing count = -67.2%
• Months inventory = 1.1
• Median listing age = 149 days
• Y/Y change in listing cout = -10.6%
• Months inventory = 5+
• Asheville, NC
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Tight credit continues to weigh on market
• 37% of mortgages have >20% down payment• 2001-04 approx 40% of borrowers had FICO
>740• In 2012 this is over 50% overall, over 70% for
FNMA/FHLMC• Essentially no sub-prime, Alt-A market• NAR estimates deficit of 500-700k sales
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Appraisals continue to kill deals
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Other Federal issues
• Mortgage Interest Deductibility
• FHA solvency
• Short sale expediting
• Future of GSE’s
• General fiscal chaos and uncertainty
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
NAR’s View
• Upside … Credit Availability– Housing recovery so far even with tight credit– What happens if mortgage accessibility opens up?– Counter-cyclical housing policy … lower FHA premiums and lower GSE g-fees
• Downside … Washington Policy– QRM 20% down payment requirement?– Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage with low down payment
and commercial loans– Trim mortgage interest deduction?– Capital gains tax on home sale?
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Brokerage Developments
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Advancing > Lives > Forward >
Summary• National market in recovery• Listing shortage in certain markets• Federal policies are putting damper on market• Appraisals continue to be challenging• Revolution in consumer-directed real estate data• Agents beginning to be put under microscope