Simulation of European emissions impacts on particulate matter concentrations in 2010 using Models-3Rob Lennard, Steve Griffiths and Paul Sutton (RWE npower)Power Technology, Environmental Compliance Group
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 2
Overview of presentation
• Background to study
• Air quality legislation covering particulate matter (PM) and issues for electricity generation sector
• Models-3 and treatment of PM
• Overview of modelled scenario
• Results - compliance with guidelines sector by sector impacts primary versus secondary particulate impacts implications of a population exposure approach
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 3
Background to study
Power Technology work on behalf of UK power generator’s Joint Environmental Programme (the JEP)
Eight companies – cover majority of the UK coal and oil-fired generation
Investigate environmental issues of relevance to the power industry Air quality, acid deposition, particulate matter formation Selected Models-3 in 1999 to address regional scale issues
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 4
• Mounting evidence for association between exposure to PM and
adverse health impacts
• Fine particulates (PM2.5) believed to be primarily responsible
• Lack of evidence for a threshold for harmful effects
• Based on current understanding, World Health Organisation (WHO) has
updated its air quality guidelines (AQG) (October 2006)
• For the first time, WHO has recommended guidelines for PM2.5
• Updated guidelines for PM have been proposed for Europe and the UK
Particulate matter (PM) and human health impacts
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 5
Updates to PM guidelines
• New EU air quality Directive (current understanding - currently being debated)
PM10 30 µgm-3 annual mean
PM2.5 25 µgm-3 annual mean (binding from 2010)
PM2.5 Up to 20% reduction in urban background annual mean
• UK Air Quality Strategy – updates proposed by Defra:
PM10 Retain standards???
PM2.5 25 µgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5
PM2.5 15% exposure reduction target for annual mean PM2.5
• WHO Air Quality Guidelines Global Update
PM2.5 10 µgm-3 annual mean and 25 µgm-3 24-hour mean
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 6
Important issues for the JEP
Power stations contribute to PM concentrations: ~9% of UK primary emissions (EMEP Webdab)• Secondary - emissions of precursor gases SO2 (70%) and NOx (20%)
Uncertainty regarding fraction responsible for adverse health effects• Toxicology studies suggest primary combustion particles have
high toxic potency• Other components are thought to have a lower toxic potency
e.g. ammonium salts, chlorides, sulphates, nitrates
Need to understand the effect of our emissions on primary and secondary PM2.5 concentrations
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 7
Models-3/CMAQ
3-D gridded Eulerian model
Set up to run on three nested grids
(54, 18, and 6km resolution)
21 vertical layers (15km)
Requires hourly gridded emissions and
meteorology
Plus land-use, initial conditions,
boundary conditions
Chemical Scheme:
RADM2+aerosols+aqueous chemistry
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 8
Modelling Particulate in Models-3
Based on USEPA particulate model / Regional Acid Deposition Model Time-dependent size distribution & size specific chemical composition Modal approach – Coarse, accumulation & nucleation Described by particle number concentration, total surface area & total mass Species
Sulphate, Nitrate, Ammonium Elemental Carbon Primary organic species Anthropogenic secondary organic species Biogenic secondary species Unspecified anthropogenic species Can also include aerosol water
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 9
Modelling study
• Compared contributions of 7 sectors to ground-level PM concentrations
• Model run for an entire year, month-by-month basis, 1999 met data
• Anthropogenic emissions scenario for the year 2010
– data from EMEP WebDab Expert Emissions Database (emep.webdab.int)
• Emissions data were available for all major pollutants
(SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and NMVOC).
• Temporal profiles applied using smoke.
- energy sector data provided by JEP companies
• Emissions from SNAP categories 1, 3 and 4 assigned to point sources
(based on assumptions from National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory)
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 10
Sectors for which impacts have been assessed• Ground-level PM concentrations due to 7 different sectors compared• Eight model runs performed in total
Sectors:
• Agriculture• Energy• Industry – SNAP cats 3,4,5,6,9• Natural• Residential• Shipping• Transport – SNAP cats 7,8
Ground-level concentration output:
• Total PM10
• Primary PM10
• Secondary
• Total PM2.5
• Primary PM2.5
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 11
Emissions data by SNAP category
Sector SNAP Source
Combustion in energy production and transformation 1 EMEP
Non-industrial combustion (residential, commercial & institutional)
2 EMEP
Combustion in industry 3 EMEP
Production Processes 4 EMEP
Extraction & distribution of fossil fuels 5 EMEP
Solvent use 6 EMEP
Road transport 7 EMEP
Other transport and mobile machinery 8 EMEP
Waste treatment & disposal 9 EMEP
Agriculture, forestry and land-use change 10 EMEP
Shipping 8 EMEP
Natural Sources 11 GEIA
Volcanoes 11 EMEP
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 12
Models-3 PM simulation validationComparison with measured data – 24 hour averages
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Modelled concentration [PM2.5] ug/m3
Mea
sure
d c
on
cen
trat
ion
[P
M2.
5] u
g/m
3
Hodge Hill
Clif fe
Harw ell
London Bloomsbury
Rochester
Wingham
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Modelled concentration [PM2.5] ug/m3
Mea
sure
d c
on
cen
trat
ion
[P
M2.
5] u
g/m
3
Hodge Hill
Clif fe
Harw ell
London Bloomsbury
Rochester
Wingham
January 1999 July 1999
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 13
Results – comparison with standards
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 14
Exceedances of 25μgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5
AreaGrid square
Eastern Sicily(44,11)
Northern Italy(34,25)
Agriculture 2.3 10.9
Energy 0.7 1.9
Industry 1.2 5.0
Natural 19.4 1.5
Residential 0.6 5.2
Transport 7.1 14.5
Shipping 1.3 1.0
All Sources 27.7 30.2
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 15
Exeedances of 12 μgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 16
All source primary and secondary PM2.5 concentrations
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 17
Sector contributions to grid averages and maxima (µgm-3)
Sector Total PM2.5 Secondary PM2.5 Primary PM2.5
Average
Max Average
Max Average
Max
Agriculture 2.33 11.53 2.31 11.49 0.03 0.47
Energy 0.78 4.33 0.74 3.93 0.05 0.57
Industry 0.84 5.49 0.66 3.37 0.18 4.32
Natural 0.61 19.43 0.60 19.43 0.01 0.03
Residential 0.63 6.26 0.34 1.76 0.30 5.37
Transport 1.16 14.50 0.98 10.93 0.18 3.57
Shipping 0.61 4.64 0.59 4.64 0.03 1.54
All sources 7.19 30.17 6.40 26.71 0.79 8.88
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 18
Sector contributions to grid averages and maxima (µgm-3)
Sector Total PM2.5 Secondary PM2.5 Primary PM2.5
Average
Max Average
Max Average
Max
Agriculture 2.33 11.53 2.31 11.49 0.03 0.47
Energy 0.78 4.33 0.74 3.93 0.05 0.57
Industry 0.84 5.49 0.66 3.37 0.18 4.32
Natural 0.61 19.43 0.60 19.43 0.01 0.03
Residential 0.63 6.26 0.34 1.76 0.30 5.37
Transport 1.16 14.50 0.98 10.93 0.18 3.57
Shipping 0.61 4.64 0.59 4.64 0.03 1.54
All sources 7.19 30.17 6.40 26.71 0.79 8.88
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 19
Exposure approach – population data
Based on Gridded Population of the World (GPW) dataset, available from Centre for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) website
Projected to Lambert Conformal Projection appropriate for Models-3
Population density in persons per km2
■ ■ ■ ■ ■
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 20
Population exposure
Agriculture Residential Energy
Population exposure to secondary PM2.5 (person.μgm-3km-2)
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 21
Population exposure
Agriculture Residential Energy
Population exposure to primary PM2.5 (person.μgm-3km-2)
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 22
Impact of considering population exposure
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Agriculture Energy Industry Residential Transport Shipping
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o a
ll s
ou
rce
tota
l (%
) Mass emitted
Grid average concentration
Population exposure
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 23
Conclusions
• No exceedances of 40 μgm-3 annual mean for PM10 predicted in 2010
• Exceedances of 25 μgm-3 annual mean for PM2.5 in two locations only
• Secondary particulates dominate all source PM concentrations
• Emissions from agriculture dominate secondary concentrations
• Primary concentrations dominated by emissions from transport,
residential and industrial sectors
• Given current evidence for adverse health effects, greatest benefits expected for
emissions reductions in these sectors
• Energy sector contributions to concentrations due to all anthro sources are
relatively low ( 11.2% to total PM2.5, 11.9% to secondary and 6.4% to primary)
• Population exposure approach places even greater emphasis on transport and
residential emissions since air quality impacts high in densely populated areas
© 2005 E.ON 22 April 2023, E.ON UK, Page 24
Any questions?