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www.awpa.gov.au
Skilling Australia Summit Securing the future prosperity of our economy and na7on 30 June -‐-‐-‐ 1 July 2014
Current, emerging and future workforce development needs
Robin Shreeve CEO
Australian Workforce and Produc7vity Agency
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www.awpa.gov.au
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The drivers of change
The Megatrends
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T h e c h a n g i n g n a t u r e o f w o r k L y n d a G r a K o n
S h i ; t o c o n n e c < v i t y
S h i ; t o q u a l i t y
o f e x p e r i e n c e
S h i ; t o m a s t e r y
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T h e fi v e f o r c e s
Source: Forces shaping the future of work -‐ Lynda GraKon inves7gates The Future of Work , Business Strategy Review Q3-‐2010
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T h e f u t u r e o f w o r k
Source: Forces shaping the future of work -‐ Lynda GraKon inves7gates The Future of Work , Business Strategy Review Q3-‐2010
Forever Young The Ageing Popula<on – Australia
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Sta7s7cs
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old
It will be 25% by 2050
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Changing profile of industry
D e c l i n e o ff s e t b y g r o w t h i n o t h e r s e c t o r s
Employment and workforce development
Employment in Australia by industry, share of total, 1961-‐62 to 2011-‐12
Note: Totals for 2011-‐12 are es7mated. Sources: ABS; RBA; Withers, Endres and Perry (1985) in Lowe (2012).
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C h a n g e i n e m p l o y m e n t s h a r e s b y i n d u s t r y : 2 0 1 2 t o 2 0 3 0
( T r e a s u r y m o d e l l i n g )
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Qualifica7ons and providers
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Mo r e j o b s f o r h i g h e r s k i l l s T h e A u s t r a l i a n c o n t e x t
Employment and workforce development
+38%
+32%
+10%
+18%
+6%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Skill level 1 Skill level 2 Skill level 3 Skill level 4 Skill level 5
Person
s em
ployed
('00
0)
Skill level (ANZSCO)
2012
2003
Change in persons employed by skill level, Australia, 2003 to 2012
Source: ABS (2013) Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, four quarter average to November.
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A u s t r a l i a w i l l n e e d a m o r e h i g h l y s k i l l e d a n d q u a l i fi e d w o r k f o r c e
Qualifica<on held 2011 2025 (‘000) Average annual change 2011–25 (%)
Long boom
Smart recovery
Terms of trade shock
Ring of fire
Long boom
Smart recovery
Terms of trade shock
Ring of fire
Postgraduate 1,588.0 3,104.7 2,714.9 2,941.4 2,187.5 4.9 3.9 4.5 2.3
Undergraduate 4,126.3 7,256.9 6,475.3 6,877.5 5,435.7 4.1 3.3 3.7 2
Advanced diploma/Diploma
2,299.5 3,842.3 3,428.2 3,632.4 2,920.1 3.7 2.9 3.3 1.7
Cer7ficate III &IV 3,597.6 6,195.8 5,323.0 5,671.9 4,441.9 4 2.8 3.3 1.5
Cer7ficate I & II 1,563.1 2,079.2 1,914.9 1,961.2 1,774.6 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.9
Total 13,174.6 22,479.0 19,856.4 21,084.5 16,759.8 3.9 3 3.4 1.7
Total qualifica7ons held by persons employed, unemployed and not in the labour force, by scenario and qualifica7on level (‘000)
Derived from DeloiKe Access Economics, 2012, Economic modelling of skills demand and supply, Tables 5.10–5.17.
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UK Study by IPPR says differences in replacement and expansion jobs
Millions of new job openings by Skill Level
Source: Table 2 from Go8 (2014). Policy Note Labour market demand for university graduates
0
50
100
150
200
250
Percen
t
Per cent of Qualifica<on
University
VET
No postsecondary
Which providers support which sectors?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Managers
Profession
als
Technicians and Trades
Workers
Commun
ity and
Personal
Service Workers
Clerical and
Adm
inistra7
ve
Workers
Sales Workers
Machine
ry Ope
rators and
Drivers Labo
urers
Percen
t Per cent of Occupa<on
University
VET
No postsecondary
Source: Table 1 from Go8 (2014). Policy Note Labour market demand for university graduates
By type of job
S t u d e n t r e t u r n s – V E T a n d H E
Source: KPMG Econtech , Economic Modelling of Improved Funding and Reform Arrangements for UniversiMes (2010)
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Source: Go8 (2014). Policy Note Demand for higher educaMon, by field
-‐300% -‐250% -‐200% -‐150% -‐100% -‐50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Cluster 1-‐Law, Accoun<ng, Admin, Economics, Commerce
Cluster 2-‐ Humani<es
Cluster 3a-‐Maths, Stats
Cluster 3b-‐ Behaviour Science, Social Studies
Cluster 3c-‐ IT, Built Env, other Health
Cluster 4-‐ Educa<on
Cluster 5a-‐Clinical Psychology, Languages, Visual and Performing Arts
Cluster 5b-‐ Allied Health
Cluster 6-‐ Nursing
Cluster 7a-‐Science
Cluster7b-‐Engineering, Surveying
Cluster 8a-‐ Agriculture
Cluster 8b-‐Medicine, Den<stry, Veterinary
Change in share of Commonwealth supported load by funding cluster, 2001-‐2010
Source: Go8 (2014). Table1. Policy Note Demand for higher educaMon, by field
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Graduate and Total Unemployment
Graduate Unemployment
Total Unemployment
Recession - total unemployment increases at a faster rate than graduate unemployment
Recession - total unemployment increases at a faster rate than graduate unemployment
Source: ABS, EducaMon and Work, various issues.
Global Financial Crisis
Private rate of return by discipline Discipline Males Females
Humani7es 3% 9%
Science 10% 11%
Allied Health 13% 14%
Mathema7cs and sta7s7cs 13% 12%
Informa7on Technology 17% 15%
Engineering 15% 14%
Architecture 9% 6%
Medicine 16% 15%
Nursing 17% 14%
Den7stry 20% 17%
Educa7on 11% 10%
Visual and Performing Arts * *
Commerce 17% 15%
Law 17% 15%
Economics 18% 15%
Total 15% 12%
* = zero or below zero rate of return
Project Manager -‐ A demonstrated track record in project management for Construc7on Projects to the value of $30M or over, with a minimum of 10 years experience to support this. Must hold a professional qualifica7on in Construc7on.
Senior Site Manager -‐ Must have substan7al knowledge and experience in Site Management for high rise construc7on projects, (15 levels and upwards) to the value of $40M, knowledge and experience in Occupa7onal Health & Safety regula7ons, and excellent communica7on skills. A minimum of eight years experience and a ter<ary qualifica<on is required.
Site Manager -‐ Knowledge and experience in Site Management for low level construc7on projects, $10M-‐$40M. Must have excellent communica7on skills, and a minimum of seven year's experience within the construc<on industry
Structural Engineer -‐ Demonstrated track record in structural engineering for construc7on projects, (26 levels and upwards) with a minimum of 10 years experience to support this. Must hold a professional qualifica7on in Structural Engineering.
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Skills vs experience gap?
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T h e e x p e r i e n c e g a p
Workers new to the labour market face significant barriers in gerng their ‘foot in the door’.
Australia increasingly lacks ‘nurseries’ for new entrants to the workforce.
‘Tradi7onal’ transi7onal pathways such as cadetships (e.g. journalism, banking, administra7on) are disappearing with changing industry structures.
Employers increasingly ‘want novice workers to come ready-‐made with employability skills’.
Young people who experience difficul7es in their transi<on from school to full-‐7me work risk prolonged periods of unemployment.
There is evidence of an oversatura7on of graduates in some fields within the demand-‐led system and declining entry-‐level opportuni<es in others.
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Industry transforma7on
P r e d i c 7 n g t h e i m p a c t o n q u a n 7 t y a n d q u a l i t y o f j o b s
Employment
• Produc7vity-‐enhancing technologies foster higher incomes and lower prices, genera7ng new jobs across the economy
• Technology (par7cularly ICT) applied to rou7ne tasks including cogni7ve tasks, increasing non-‐rou7ne work undertaken within each occupa7onal level leading to increased demand for upskilling and highly skilled labour
• Some debate about whether recently technology has extended into more complex cogni7ve tasks, and how that might impact on the future demand for highly skilled labour
• Developed countries have a compara7ve advantage in focusing produc7on on non-‐rou7ne tasks
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T h e L u d d i t e s
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C h a n g e s i n s h a r e o f t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t a n d t o t a l h o u r s w o r k e d
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Sources: Jeff Borland, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne
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I s t e c h n o l o g y e l i m i n a 7 n g j o b s ?
C o g n i 7 v e a n d r o u 7 n e N o n -‐ c o g n i 7 v e a n d r o u 7 n e
C o g n i 7 v e a n d n o n -‐ r o u 7 n e N o n -‐ c o g n i 7 v e a n d n o n -‐ r o u 7 n e
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B r e a k d ow n o f E m p l o ym e n t S h a r e s
C h a l l e n g e s f o r t h e f u t u r e -‐ l e a d e r s h i p a n d m a n a g em e n t ?
Average management performance in manufacturing, selected OECD countries
Source: Dolman, B and Gruen, D, Australian Treasury, 2012, ProducMvity and structural change, paper presented by Gruen to the 41st Australian Conference of Economists, 10 July 2012.
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The quest for produc7vity
Source: Dolman, B., Gruen, D., ProducMvity and Structural Change, 10 July 2012
Contribu<ons to growth in average incomes by decade
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Insight from Jack Welch “The best companies now know that real and limitless producMvity comes from challenged, empowered, excited and rewarded teams of people ... and from making everyone play a role in the success of the enterprise ... this raises producMvity not incrementally, but by mulMples”
Jack Welch, Former Chairman and CEO of General Electric
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• Exchange rate fluctua7on from 85c to $1.05 increasing export prices
Challenge
• Management set a target to reduce the price of each vehicle to offset exchange rate changes
Goal
• Tailored Cert III for staff
• En7re workforce collaborated together
Solu7on
• Over 12 months, the price of each truck has reduced by $10k due to improved work processes
Outcome
Example: Kenworth Trucks
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Employee aKributes
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G e n e r i c s k i l l s
Source: Core Skills For Work Developmental Framework; Department of Industry, Innova7on, Climate Change, Science, Research and Ter7ary Educa7on and Department of Educa7on, Employment and Workplace Rela7ons.
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T -‐ s h a p e d a K r i b u t e s n e e d e d
Cross-‐discipline competence
Specialist skills
• Ability to collaborate across disciplines
• General knowledge • Nego7a7on • Problem Solving • Decision Making • Asser7veness • Knowledge required to
perform a task • Subject/skill specialisa7on • Technical exper7se • Trade qualifica7ons • Higher educa7on
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Q u e s 7 o n s ?
T h a n k y o u
@AWP_Agency
www.awpa.gov.au