Robustapproachestoresiliencemeasurement,evaluationapplication,

andfocusonclimateshocks

ResilienceEvidenceForumOctober2-3,2017TimFrankenbergerTANGOInternational

ResilienceMeasurementApproach• TANGOmeasuresresilienceusingchangesovertimeinindicatorsof

householdwell-being(e.g.foodsecurity)duringthecourseofashock.

• Simultaneouslyresiliencecapacities-theunderlyingfactorsenablingresilience-arealsomeasured.

• Thesearegroupedintothreetypes-absorptive,adaptiveandtransformativecapacities.

• Resiliencecapacitiesareseenasminimizing,moderating,ortransformingtheeffectsofshocks&stressors.

• Theeffectivenessofcapacitiesisdemonstratedthroughwell-beingdynamics.

• Amixedmethodapproachisusedusingbothquantitativeandqualitativetools,paneldata,andhighfrequencydatacollectionthatisshockresponsive(RecurrentMonitoringsurveys)

PRIMEImpactRecurrentMonitoringSurvey1DeepDive

Whichresiliencecapacitiesenabledhouseholdstorecoverfromthedrought?• GrowthRegressions:

– Householdandcommunityresiliencecapacitiespredictingthechangeinfoodsecurityoutcomesovertime.

– Modelscontrolledforshockexposure,initialfoodsecuritylevels,andhouseholdcharacteristics

• PositiveDeviant(PD)Analyses:– Analysesofthegroupsofhouseholdsthatfaredfarbetterthan

averageoverthecourseofthedroughtwaves.

PRIMEImpactRecurrentMonitoringSurvey1DeepDive

• Programmaticareasoffocustoincreasehouseholds’resiliencetofuturedroughts

• Timelyhumanitarianassistance(foodaid,food/cash–for-work,hazardinsurance)

• Forenhancinghouseholdresilience,programmingshouldfocuson:• Buildingsocialcapital• Supportinginformalsafetynetsandcommunitygroups(especiallycivicgroupsandnaturalresourcemanagementgroups)

• Maintainingandenhancinghouseholds’assetbases• Ensuringaccesstosavingsandcredit• Increasingaccesstocommunalnaturalresources.

PRIMEImpactRecurrentMonitoringSurveyII

• DataCollectionforRMSIIwasconductedoverayearstimein6rounds(every2months)beginninginOctober2015.

• ThisperiodwasmarkedbyhighlyerraticrainfallassociatewithElNinoandwasconsideredtheworstdroughtin50years.Shockexposurewasmeasuredusingsatelliterainfalldata.

• ThedatacollectionallowedforrealtimemonitoringofhouseholdsabilitytocopeaswellasanalysisinferringwhetherornotPRIMEprojectinterventionshadhelpedhouseholdsbettermanagethedrought.

PRIMEImpactRecurrentMonitoringSurveyII

• Thedatawerecollectedfromarandomsampleof400householdsfromthebaseline(paneldata).

• 40%residinginprojectvillagesreceivingcomprehensiveresilienceprogrammingand60%ofwhomdonot.

• TheregressionanalysiscontrolledforfactorsthatmighthaveaffectedhouseholdfoodsecurityotherthanexposuretoPRIMEinterventions.

• Theresultsindicatethattherewasastrongstatisticallysignificantdifferenceintherelationshipbetweenshockexposureandfoodsecuritybetweenthetreatmentandcontrolgroup.

Estimatedrecoverytrajectoryasshockexposureincreasesforlowandhighintensityhouseholds

-4

-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

10 12 14 16 18 20

Cha

nge

in f

ood

secu

rity

Shock exposure (rainfall deficit)

Low intensity households

High intensity households

PRIMEImpactRecurrentMonitoringSurveyII

Predictedprobabilityofunplannedcattle,andgoatdeathsasshockexposureincreasesforlow- andhigh-intensityPRIMEprojecthouseholds

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

0.22

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Prob

abili

ty o

f an

unpl

anne

d ca

ttle

dea

thShock exposure (rainfall deficit)

Low intensity households

High intensity households

0.17

0.22

0.27

0.32

0.37

0.42

0.47

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Prob

abilit

y of a

n unp

lanne

d goa

t dea

th

Shock exposure (rainfall deficit)

Low intensity households

High intensity households

Theeffectofwomen’sempowermentinmshocksinBangladesh

• Howwomen’sempowermentismeasuredintheSHOUHARDOIIproject– Women’sempowermentismeasuredusingthreeaspectsof

empowermentcombinedintoanindexusingfactoranalysis:(1)women’sdecisionmakingwithintheirhomes;(2)women’sfreedomofmovement;and(3)thedegreetowhichwomenholdnon-patriarchalvalues.

• Thefigureinthenextslideillustratesthecross-sectionalregressionresultsforthemonthsofadequatefoodprovisioning.

• Atthehighestlevelofwomen’sempowermentasmeasuredbyourindex,whenfloodinggetsworsefoodsecurityismaintained(greenline)

• Atthelowestlevel,whenfloodinggetsworsefoodsecuritydrops(blueline).

• Thisshowsthatwomen’sempowermentcanbufferhouseholds’foodsecurityduringclimateshocks,thusbolsteringtheirresiliencetoshocks.

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300

Food

sec

urit

y

Shock exposure (surface flow surplus)

Highempowerment(maximum)

mean

Lowempowerment(minimum)

Estimatedfoodsecuritytrajectoryasshockexposureincreasesforwomenwithhigh,mediumandlowempowerment