Rock & Rollversus

The Oil Patch

What can the decline of great music teach us about

the future of energy?

What is oil?

A little history.

How much do we use? How much is there?

Crystal ball

PetroleumPetroleumOriginOrigin

PetroleumPetroleumOriginOrigin

Tiny critters and algae (zooplankton and plankton) in oceans die, settle to seafloor and get eaten up.

•If everything is JUST RIGHT this stuff gets preserved and converted to oil and

trapped: GOM and Niger Delta 5-35 million years ago Seas that covered North America 150 million yrs ago Alaska’s north slope 250 million years ago

Source RockPreserved plankton “cooked” just right

Reservoir rock

Seal rock

Petroleum OriginPetroleum OriginPetroleum OriginPetroleum Origin

Oil and gas “migrate” up.

Most spills out at surface.

A small % gets “trapped”.

Oil and gas “migrate” up slowly through

porous rock

Oil seep

Petroleum Petroleum OriginOrigin

Petroleum Petroleum OriginOrigin

Oil HistoryOil History

Birth of the US oil industry

1859

“Drake’s Folly”

• Titusville, Pennsylvania

• 70 foot well

• 20 bbls/day

Created an overnight oil boom

Oil HistoryOil History

Jan 10, 1901 – “Big Oil”

One well100,000 bbls/day - Tripled US production

The “Lucas Gusher” at Spindletop – Nine days and 800,000 bbls later,

it was under control.

By 1903, more than 400 wells had been drilled on the dome.

…optimum rig spacing ???.

Oil HistoryOil History

US - early production bbls per year:

1859: 2 thousand1869: 4 million1879: 20 million1889: 35 million1899: 50 million1906: 130 million

Oil HistoryOil History

Internal Combustion Engine

Spindletop

Civil WarRockefeller/Std Oil OH

Today

Our thirst for conventional oil:

US consumption 20,000,000 bbl/dayGlobal consumption 86,000,000 bbl/dayGlobal (all energy) 226,000,000 BOEPD

Annual global oil consumption >30,000,000,000 bbl/yearThat’s 42,000 gallons per second

Oil HistoryOil History

An issue of SCALE

How do we produce our energy?How do we produce our energy?How do we produce our energy?How do we produce our energy?

World Energy Supply87% fossil fuels

23%

23%

39%

3%

8%

US Energy Consumption

>3%

EIA, 2009

How do we produce energy?How do we produce energy?

Hydro35%

WoodDerived

Biofuels

Wind

Solar/PVE 1%Geothermal

Waste

Data-EIA, 2009

Coal 21%

Nuclear 9%

Petroleum 37%

NaturalGas25%

USRenewable

Energy

Total Consumption

8%

8%

TransportationTransportation

Conventional Oil

Natural Gas

Data from EIA 2007Data from EIA 2007

Biom

assCoal

Hydro

Uranium

HeatHeat

ElectricityElectricity

S. Tinker, Univ. Texas Austin Bur. Econ. Geol., AAPG, April 2008

What do we use it for?Energy ResourcesEnergy ResourcesEnergy ResourcesEnergy Resources

Th, Fri: Campus Sustainability

• Assignment:– 3 multiple choice questions

• With correct answer indicated, • With 1-2 sentence discussion/explanation of

correct answer

In the news

Presentation ScheduleNov 30th-Dec 3rd

• 7 minutes per total: 5 min talk + 2 min questions

• Practice! Practice! Practice!

Paper Due- Nov 30th

CONVENTIONAL OIL

“Geological Endowment” 3 Trillion Barrels* (*but we can’t get this all out)

We’ve used 1.1 Trillion barrels

Remaining reserves 1.3 Trillion barrels

~35 year supply (at current consumption rates)

Hydrocarbon ResourcesHydrocarbon ResourcesHydrocarbon ResourcesHydrocarbon Resources

…problem - 25 Years from now:

Globally by 2035

Energy consumption up 49%

CO2 emissions up 43%

Oil price up 100%

($133/bbl)

According to US Energy Information Agency (EIA)

May 25, 2010

Into the future…Into the future…Into the future…Into the future…

Supply and DemandSupply and Demand

… when ½ of recoverable oilhas been producedand demand outstripssupply

““PEAK OIL”PEAK OIL”

Hubbert’s PeakM. King Hubbert1956

What will fill

this gap?Production Decline

Rolling Stone Magazine

Top 500 Songs of All Time

Like a Rolling Stone Bob Dylan 1965

Satisfaction Rolling Stones 1965

Imagine John Lennon 1971

What's Going On Marvin Gaye 1971

RespectAretha Franklin

1965

Good VibrationsThe Beach Boys

1966

Johnny B. Goode Chuck Berry 1958

Hey Jude The Beatles 1968

Smells Like Teen Spirit Nirvana 1991

What'd I Say Ray Charles 1959

Supply and DemandSupply and Demand

Rock & Roll versus OilRock & Roll versus Oil

Music Q

ualityDemand fo

r good m

usic

Have we exhausted allof the good

music?What fillsthe Gap?

“Peak Rock”

Alternative MusicAlternative Music

Shoegazing

Punk

Post punk

Grunge

Gothic Rock

Brit Pop

Indie

Hip Hop

Rap

Electronica

Rave

Acid Jazz

Jam

Straightedge

What will fill the gap?What will fill the gap?

According to the EIA (2010)

Biofuels will account for most growth in liquid

fuel consumption in the United States over

the next 25 years.

BUT – Fossil fuel consumption will

continue at near-current levels.

What about projected HC production

declines?

Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources

“Unconventional Hydrocarbons” There is a LOT of it!

• Natural gas• Deep Gas (+15,000’) – now conventional• Tight Gas - adds 17% to US gas resource• Shale Gas – adds 25% • Coalbed Methane – adds 8% • Methane Hydrate – 2 to 20 times global NG supply

• Unconventional (heavy) oil• Shale Oil – 3 Trillion Barrels• Tar Sands – 3.5 Trillion Barrels

The world has more hydrocarbons than we are likely to ever use.

Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources OIL INDUSTRY CONVERSIONS

Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources

COAL

World reserves about 1000 BMT (billion metric tons)

Relatively evenly distributed throughout the world

U.S. reserves: 25% of the world reserves

Annual global consumption 5 BMT

(meaning the world has 200 years @ current production)

China, U.S., and Russia account for 50% of total CO2 released

Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources

EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010

Things to Ponder…Things to Ponder…

The age of oil will not end for lack of hydrocarbon resources.

Technology will take us in new directions.

Need radical shift away from:• internal combustion engine • pulverized coal-fired power plants

But, must be done as technology allows.Rushing will cost dearly.

Invest heavily – BUT CAREFULLY – in renewable energy alternatives.

The challenge: SCALE of consumption

and of technology.

In the news

Presentation Schedule- everyone sign up!

Bring your talk on a jump drive BEFORE class time, so I can load it up

Every day of the talks: each student (that is not presenting) will prepare 1 multiple choice question

Graduate School Opportunity

Idaho State University-

Looking for Masters student

Alamo Bolide Impact (Nevada), and impact on Devonian life

Contact me

Undergraduate Research Opportunities

Science Honors Research ProgramPaid summer research

www.cwu.edu/~cots/scihonors

See any Geology Faculty

Presentation Tips- preparation:Don’t wait to the last minute to prepare your talk

When you prepare your talk, focus on what you want people to be thinking about when they leave

You only have 7 min total- every slide counts!

Minimize the amount of text on your slides

Check for consistency in the appearance of your slides- color, font, etc.

Presentation Tips- preparation cont’:

From: “Scientifically Speaking- available on class website

Presentation Tips- preparation cont’:

You only have 7 min total- every slide counts!

Minimize words

Be considerate of others, make sure your talk will fit in the alloted time

Practice, practice, practice

Presentation Tips: The delivery

Talk to the audience, not the board

Give a roadmap of your talk at the beginning

Do not read your presentation verbatim

More Presentation Tips

http://www.projectionnet.com/styleguide/PresentationStyleGuide.aspx

Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources

EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010

Things to Ponder…Things to Ponder…

The age of oil will not end for lack of hydrocarbon resources.

Technology will take us in new directions.

Need radical shift away from:• internal combustion engine • pulverized coal-fired power plants

But, must be done as technology allows.Rushing will cost dearly.

Invest heavily – BUT CAREFULLY – in renewable energy alternatives.

The challenge: SCALE of consumption

and of technology.

Alternative Replacements for 1 CMO

1 CMO* - what the world consumes in one year

3 CMO – total world annual energy consumption

Source*#/year for

50 years

Total Cost Mi2

Required

Output

per

Large Hydro

4 200 6 488,200 1 – 20 GW(3 over 10 GW)

Nukes 52 2,600 13 4,000 1000 MW(1GW)

Coal Plants 104 5,200 3.4 4,000 500 MW

Wind

Turbines32,000 1.6

Million3.3 105,663 1.5 – 2.0

MW

PV

Cells

90,000,000

4.5 Billion

68 24,662 150 watt

1kw/day

Some perspective (a matter of scale)

Data from: Crane, Hewitt; Edwin Kinderman and Ripudaman Malhotra (June 2010). A Cubic Mile of Oil. Oxford University Press

Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources

OECD - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - an international economic organization of 33 countries founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. It defines itself as a forum of countries committed to democracy and the market economy, providing a setting to compare policy experiences, seeking answers to common problems, identifying good practices, and co-ordinating domestic and international policies of its members.

Australia  Austria  Belgium  Canada  Chile  Czec Republic  Denmark  Finland  France  Germany  Greece  Hungary  Iceland  Ireland  Israel  Italy  Japan  South Korea  Luxembourg  Mexico  Netherlands  New Zealand  Norway  Poland  Portugal  Slovakia  Slovenia  Spain  Sweden  Switzerland  Turkey  United Kingdom  United States  

EIA - the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. DoE. US premier source of energy info. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts areindependent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government.

NPC – National Petroleum Council. Established 1946 at request of Truman. Now part of DoE and is a Federal Advisory Commitee