1
The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing effective assessments for decision support
Roger S. Pulwarty
NOAA
Boulder CO 80305
CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP
2
• What/where are the critical issues and who is/are defining them?
• What are the processes?
• What are the applications?
• What are the outcomes?
3
Planning for climate risks?
There is strongevidencethat existing climaterisks are not beingadequately incorporatedinto decision-making, even with regard toweather extremes
(Source: MunichRe, Topics Geo Annual Review, Natural Catastrophes, 2005)
4
Conclusions, so far
• Degradation is often a long-term process with cumulative phases of acceleration and deceleration
• Rates of changes are important
• Processes involve multiple timescales(conjunction of several factors at unique points)
• Degradation must be placed within wider social and environmental dynamics (other phases of landscape transformation)
eg size of settlements and adequacy of social mechanisms to deal with changing circumstances
5
Three reasons for assessing climate change in the context of adaptation to extremes and variability:
(1) A strictly long-term focus can overshadow the role of surprise in shaping responses
(2) Adaptations in many cases are driven by crises, learning and redesign
(3) Opportunities exist to learn from organizations that cope with change and focus on responses and social networking such as disaster relief and research
……..BUT—long-term scenarios can also bring focus on changes in extremes…
(Orlove, 2004: Pulwarty, Broad, Finan, 2003)
6
The Asipu A group of priests in the Tigris-Euphrates valley
2500-3000 BC
• Hazard identification
• Data collection and analysis
• Generation of alternatives
• Report creation
7
Integrated assessment
Utilization
Forecast generationProjections
Dissemination
8
Problem-solving approaches conditioned by system uncertainty and decision stakes(Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz, 1990)
Consultancy (Specific
applications&output)
AppliedSciences(Impacts)
>2 nd Order Contexts (Integrated Assessments
Decision-support)
Decision Stakes:
Problem solvingapproach System Uncertainty
Physical systems:and linkages Economics &Human Dimensions
Can/should probabilities be specified for this area?
9
Resources Vulnerability Capability
Physical/material
What hazards,skills, productive resources exist?
Social/Organizational
What are the relations and organizations among people?
Behavioral/Incentives
How does the community view its ability to create change?
Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix
10
Drought
11
12
Focusing event(s) and cumulative Impacts Response
DevelopmentPrevention
Mitigation
Preparedness
Recovery
13
14
Multiple competing valuesMultiple competing valuesMultiple, competing objectivesMultiple, competing objectives
Ecosystemshealth
Hydropower
Recreation
Floodcontrol Agriculture
Consumptiveuse
15
Benefits of controlling seasonality/hydrology
• Conveyance of flood waters• Storage for irrigation (and power)• Predictable navigation opportunity• Enhanced recreational uses
Adaptation requirements• Sufficient water resources for experimentation• Resilience identified/understood in key ecosystem components• Flexibility among stakeholders• Room for political negotiations
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Where do science and policy speak to each other?
and, what do they talk about?
17
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Communities
Industry
Environment
State
InternationalPressures
19
No, you’re biased
You’re biased Oh, you’re
biased
Everyone is
biased
except me
Are we exceeding design specs on this stand?
20
Lessons from the disaster research community
Technical range of choice• (state of knowledge, technology, resources at a
given point in time)
Practical range of choice• (culture, community, practice, communication)
No choice• (power, access/procedure, capacity)
21
Where do science, policy and practice, speak to each other?
and, what do they talk about?
Climate variability and change:
22
Q 3. Find x
4 cm
3 cm
x
23
Q 3. Find x
4 cm
3 cm
x
Here it is !
24
Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments:Objectives and Approaches
Characterize the state of knowledge of climate variations and changes, and their social, economic, and ecological interaction, impacts and projections at appropriate scales of interest within a region
Identify knowledge gaps in selected critical climate-environment-society problems in a region and carry out research to bridge these gaps as needed
Assess regional and local resources, capacity , and decision-support dialogs needed in responding to environmental variability and change
Carry out research focused on realizing the benefits of integrated knowledge and forecasts in different contexts and provide an informed basis for place-based decision support and services
25
Approach to Integrated Research
First vertical assessment, then horizontal
1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and uncertainty
2. Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and consequences of human choices and activities
3. Understand the institutional context of these systems, e.g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs under which human choices are made
4. Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.
26
• Climate simulations & scenarios
• Social trends• Demographics• Energy use• Land use
• Institutions• Policies• Laws
• Values• Politics
• Framing the question
• Synthesis tools• Data assimilation &
visualization• Complexity models• Scenario
development and testing
• Understanding methodologies
• Place-based
• Network design• Platforms• Appropriate mix of
observations• Quality assurance
and control
• Types of models• Scale
• Temporal• Spatial
• Performancemetrics
• Place-based and sector-based
• User oriented• Scenarios and
probabilistic outcomes
• Synthesis
• Distributed dissemination
• New technologies
• Interactive
• User friendly
• Flexible
• Dialog, not two monologues
ImprovedDecisionProcess
….viewed from Information chain
27
Usual stakeholder interaction– Concentrates on the incorporation of new knowledge or
experience into existing models, decision processes and practices
Needed– The most important learning involves values, norms, goals, and
the basic “framing” of issues in terms of the drivers and importance
– Innovative partnerships incl.research
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Elements of adaptive management: Learning by doing
• Recognition of scientific and management complexity and uncertainty /with practitioners
• Directive and/or need for action• Implement management actions to address resource problems as
experiments• Monitor and evaluate effects of action/experiments (what works, what
does not)• Develop integrated models for watershed interactions, legal and
cultural requirements etc.• Develop experiments in a participatory process involving a key parties
(transactions costs)
29
Pacific
Northwest
South EastConsortium
Western Water Assessment
CLIMAS
California
Applications
Project
New England
Carolinas
Hawaiian and PacificIslands
*
*
30
Pacific Northwest reservoir management,fisheries, drought,snowpack, climate change mitigation andadaptation
water policy, snow pack, droughtWestern Water
CaliforniaApplications
fire, health, drought, stream flow forecasts,reservoir management, climate change
water quality, drought
extreme events, climate services
CLIMAS agricultural and groundwater management,forecast validation, drought response
SE Consortiumagricultural crop modeling, extensiondevelopment, hydrology, fire, frost-freeze
New England air quality, health
Hawaii
Carolinas
*
*
* Recommended for funding
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Western RCC Desert Research
Institute
RISA – Pacific Northwest
RISA – California
RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS
High Plains RCC University of Nebraska
Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey
InternationalResearch Institute
Northeast RCC Cornell University
Climate PredictionCenter, Climate Services Division
National ClimaticData Center
Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural
Resources
RISA – Florida
Southern RCC Louisiana State
University
National CenterRegional Center
RISA’s
States ParticipatingIn Two Regions
RISA – Western Water
Climate Diagnostic Center
Pacific ENSOApplications
Center
RISA – NewHampshire
NWS RHQ
NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers
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WSUAgriculture
U of IWater Markets/
Energy
OSU/USFS
ID Governor’s OfficeState LegislatureUSDOI - WesternRegional Office
Hydrology/Water Resources
Forests/ Forest hydrology
AquaticEcosystems
Coastal Activities
HumanHealth
OSUBattelle - Seattle
WDOEShorelands Prog.
PNNL
BLMNRCSFarmersIrrigation districts
US Forest ServiceNational Park ServiceWDNR
WDFWNMFSNPFMCPFMC
NWIFCCRITFCIPHCOR Dept. of Lands &
Development, CoastalManagement Prog.
Seattle PUDWDOE/Water Supp.Portland Water Bur.NPPCBPA
Seattle City LightTacoma P&LNOAA River FCUS Army CorpsSeattle City Council
WA Department of Health
ClimateDynamics
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Integrated Decision Support Modeling Tool
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Stresses:
Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)
Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use
Responses:
New storage
Conjunctive Use
Increased Reuse
Agricultural Efficiency
Conservation
Goal: Improve regional capabilities toadapt to climate-related impacts.
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100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Per
cent
of C
urre
nt P
opul
atio
nProjected Population Growth
NVAZ
NM
CO
CA
USA
UT
64 Million45 Million
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Issue: So Many Stakeholders!
Continental Scale: Focus of modelers
Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist
Different Scales (time & space)Different IssuesDifferent Stakeholders
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http://hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/
Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts
Six elements in our webtool:• Exploring Forecast Progression•Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials• Forecast Performance• Historical Context• Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research
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Historical Context for Forecasts/projections
Recent History | Possible Futures
Requested by Fire managers…Applicable to any climate variable
20032002
Neutral Non-ENSO sequences
2004
La Nina
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39
Groundwater overdraft in response to drought in Arizona's urban areas 2025
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Phoenix Tucson Sierra Vista* Santa Cruz
Per
cen
t o
ver
dra
ft
Baseline
1-yr drought
5-yr drought
10-yr drought
64 Million
202545 Million
2000
Population
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Wildfire Threat forecast
•The end product is a The end product is a monthly, monthly, county-by-county-by-countycounty forecast of the forecast of the KBDI.KBDI.
•Graphic shows the Graphic shows the probability of probability of at least 7 at least 7 daysdays in the month being in the month being above or below critical above or below critical thresholds.thresholds.
•Thresholds were Thresholds were determined with input determined with input from forestry and wildfire from forestry and wildfire experts.experts.
•Forecast was based on Forecast was based on the Neutral ENSO phase.the Neutral ENSO phase.
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How Good are Available Forecasts Projections?
• Natural• science
• Social science
• Stakeholder interaction
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CDC-CIRES Western Water Assessment Mission:
To improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge
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Colorado River Flow Departures from Average
Climatic InfluencesENSOPDO/VSouthwest MonsoonLand Surface Feedbacks Extreme Events
WET
DRY
Compact
Salton Sea
GCD
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Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstructed flow1530-1990s
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Timescales Indeterminate
Long-term
Decade
Annual
Seasonal
Daily-monthly
Hourly
Flows necessary to protect endangered species
Inter-basin allocations and those allocations among states
Upper Basin delivery obligations
Lake Powell-Lake Mead equalization storage
Peak heating and cooling months
Flood control operations, Kanab amber snail impacts
Western Area Power Administration’s power generation decisions
GlobalNationalRegionalTribal/StateHousehold-municipal-
county
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Water Resources: Decision calendars
Hydropower Decision Calendars
Oct
Planning
data
decisions
tion planning
gmentationreleases
Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars
Oct
Planning
data
decisions
tion planning
gmentationreleases
Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars
Oct
Planning
data
decisions
tion planning
gmentationreleases
Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars
Oct
Planning
data
decisions
tion planning
gmentationreleases
Agriculture Production Decision Calendars
Oct
Planning
data
decisions
tion planning
gmentationreleases
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Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep OctOct Nov DecAug Sep
Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows
Operational issuesOperational issues
Potential use of forecastsPotential use of forecasts
Legend:
Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack observations
Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions
Winter releases based on January/February snowpack observations
Planning ProcessPlanning Process
Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions
Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve
Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation
Peak Flow Augmentation releases
Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower
Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions
Reservoir Management Decision Calendar
Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows
Water Year Planning Next Water Year Planning
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Regional Water Issues Activities
Event
horizon
Understand, Explain, Predict, Assess, Communicate, Evaluate
Climate Processes
Network
Short Term Extreme Events
Develop experimental forecasts, monitoring, and application products. Experimental attribution assessments of regional extremes.
Subseasonal variability, Arctic Outbreaks, Monsoon, floods, heat waves, tornados, hurricanes
Reclamation, Fish and Wildlife Service CBRFC, Office of Hydrology, CPC, HPC, Regional Councils, Wildfire Managers
Drought seasonal to multi- year
Develop drought forecasts, monitoring, paleoclimate reconstructions and application products. Assess social, environmental, and economic impacts.
Flash droughts, snowpack evolution, soil moisture evolution, El Niño and La Niña, multidecadal ocean variability
Western Governors Association (WGA), NIDIS, NWS, RFCs, NCDC, RCCs, NDMC, USDA, NRCS, USGS, NASA, Regional Councils, State and Municipal Agencies
49
Regional Water Issues Activities
Event
Horizon
Understand, Explain, Predict, Assess, Communicate, Evaluate
Climate Processes
Network
Decadal Climate Variability
Develop experimental monitoring, attribution, and application products. Assessments of regional trends and risks to inform adaptation strategies.
Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Short term influences, Regional Trends
Regional Councils, Wildfire Managers, NCAR, Regional Watershed Councils, Municipal Agencies (e.g., Denver)
Climate Change
Develop experimental attribution assessments of hemispheric to regional trends. Assess social, environmental, and economic risks (e.g., Colorado Compact).
Observed, current and evolving trends, Enhanced hydrologic cycle, High elevation change
CCSP, Reclamation, EPA, USGS, IPCC, NCAR, NASA, Regional Watershed Councils, Municipal Agencies
50
Key partnershipsFederal Level:• Bonneville Power
Administration
• NOAA Fisheries Service
• NOAA River Forecast Center
• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
• U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
• U.S. Congress
• USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
• U.S. Geologic Survey
State/Tribal Level:
• CA, OR, ID Depts. of Water Resources
• WA, OR, ID State Governor’s Offices
• WA, OR, ID State Legislatures
• WA Department of Ecology
• WA Department of Fish and Wildlife
• AK Department of Fish and Game
• Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission
• Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission
Local/Other:• Central Puget Sound
Water Suppliers' Forum
• City of Tualatin, OR
• King County, WA
• WA watershed planning units
• Portland Water Bureau
• Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
• Seattle City Light
• Seattle Public Utilities
• BC Hydro
• National Wildlife Federation
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council
• PNW news media
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How Does RISA Support Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change?
Research
OutreachDecision-support
RISA Outreach:
Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community
Research:
Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change
Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities
Decision-support tools:
Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning
53
Strategic
• Mission focused, seeks understand natural and human processes identified as important to the solution of a specified problem
Applied
• Uses existing knowledge to identify approaches and develop prototype technologies and processes to solve problems of widespread importance
Adaptive
• Articulate problems at local and regional scales
• Identify appropriate approaches to solution
• Relevant prototype technologies/processes
• Fit these to the particular circumstances of specific groups
Research categories identified by participating groups
54
Robustness Strategies for Information:
• Knowledge and information
– Scientifically credible
– Socially robust
• Political legitimacy
• Practical utility
• Effectiveness
• To what extent are probabilistic estimates about the future climate impacts robust?
(given inability so far to include ENSO, AMO others)
55
• Raising awareness of the role of climate
Increasing capacity for response
• Innovative research partnerships
• Informing decsionmaking: Understanding context, communication and pratice
56
Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions: Beyond “two-way” communication
___________________________________________________________________________
Approach Assumptions and actions
Development and From the risk expert to the public--finite and
delivery of a risk message uni-directional
Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views
Assumes expert view has more validity for decision-making
Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuous
Aimed at balancing the content of risk message
Assumes both views contribute to decision-making
Social processes Engage in a process that addresses concerns about risk
of risk communication Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product
______________________________________________________________________
57
Is the research compatible with existing
decision models?
Is the research accessible to policy/decision maker?
Are policymakers receptive to the
problem and to research?
Is the research relevant for decisions?
Analysis of usefulness for policy/decision making arena
Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for decisions,usability,entry points, experience
Are the sources/providers of information credible
to the decision maker?
58
Water Resources: framesFactor Water Manager’s
PerspectiveResearcher’s Perspective
Identifying critical issue
Time frame
Spatial resolution
Goals
Basis for Decisions
Expectation
Product Characteristics
Frame
Nature of Use
59
Factor Water Manager’s Perspective Researcher’s Perspective
Identifying critical issue Based on experience External assessment
Time frame Immediate (operations)Long-term (infrastructure)
Scientifically defensibleFundable project
Spatial resolution Institutional boundaries or authorities
Scientifically defensible/funding
Goals Optimization of multiple conditions and minimize adverse impacts
Enhanced understanding, prediction, explanation
Basis for Decisions Procedure, judgment, training, Economics, Politics, risk reduction
Scientific methods, funding availability, disciplinary training
Expectation Save money and timeProtect the life and property
Understanding, prediction, continued improvement
Product Characteristics Simple but accurateContext is important
Peer-review publication and recognition
Frame Safety and well being, ProfitConsistency with institutional culture, policy, etc.
Physical (atmospheric, hydrologic, etc.) conditions as driversDependent on scientific discipline
Nature of Use Applied Conceptual
60
Managing Uncertainty:Where is the uncertainty? Where is the uncertainty?
-Problem Domain-Problem Domain
-science-science
-organizational-organizational
-community-community
-political-political
- adequate theory- adequate theory-multiple hypotheses-multiple hypotheses & congruent management & congruent management actions.actions.-tractability (complexity) -tractability (complexity) -confronting models w/data-confronting models w/data-independence/ rigor-independence/ rigor-novelty-novelty
61
Managing Uncertainty:
-Problem Domain-Problem Domain
-science-science
-organizational-organizational-community-community-political-political
- expressions of power- expressions of power- multiple equilibria- multiple equilibria
paths not takenpaths not taken- NONE are scale invariant - NONE are scale invariant - stability of institutions- stability of institutions
novelty of approachesnovelty of approaches- role of epistemic groups- role of epistemic groups- multiple discourses- multiple discourses- juggling domains- juggling domains
62
A Sea Change in Perceptions
1995: Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a
conceptual framework for applying climate info
1997-98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information
about climate variability and in CIG
Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information
2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant
threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning
2001/2: 50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work public & private
pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts
2003 to present day: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups
Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change…
63
What’s your conceptual model?
What is your mental model?
How does this affect your choice of problems and recommended solutions?
What “ought” to be done is easier to specify than to understand what is being done
64
Where do science and policy speak to each other?
65
Characteristics of successful conservation and resources-based agreements in the Western US
• Strong focusing events• Significant public interest • Personal attention of key leaders• Close interjurisdictional partnerships• Strong funding for research: collaboration
between research and management• Meaningful Stakeholder involvement
66
– Workshops and meetings (shared scenario construction; shared model building?)
– Presentations and briefings (incl. locally organized events, e.g. hearings)
– One-on-one technical assistance
– Coordination with other ongoing projects
– Work with the local media
– Web site development and maintenance
– Graduate-level courses on climate impacts & adaptation
What else is needed? Research on the role of climate information in adaptive governance…
67
Adaptive governance Adaptive governance
•Integrates various types of knowledge and organizations•Recognizes redundancy and slack as buffers
-relies on open decision-making processes recognizing multiple interests, community-based initiatives, and integrative science in addition to traditional science
68
Local information system• Discrete set of information resources organized for
the collection, processing, maintenance, transmission, and dissemination of information in accordance with defined procedures to meet specific needs
Major information system Special management attention because of its
importance to an agency mission, its high development or maintenance costs or its significant role in the administration of agency programs, finance, property or other records
69
Hazard InformationPast incidence:Maps, factors
affecting occurrence
What is the expected degree of loss?
Who, what are vulnerable
Why?
Site and Feature CharacteristicsSpecific damage/loss estimate Physical suite characteristics,
structural strength, content exposure
Element of ConcernCritical facilities, natural resources,
agriculture, population, development (existing./proposed)
What are the hazards?What severity?
What return periods?
Formulation of desired risk
reduction strategy
Risk Assessment
HazardAssessment
VulnerabilityAssessment
Economic Analysis Of risk reduction
options
Identification of risk reduction options
Criticality: From hazards to vulnerability to risk
70
Implications for Regional Climate Services
• Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires:
– Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications
– Producing very specific, mutually defined products
– Building trust with stakeholders over time
– Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation
71
Team design and evolution
What mix of disciplines, partnerships and institutions?
72
Adaptation experiences to inform governance (1)
(1) Clarification of goals at the human-environment interface
“while we sought consensus the fish disappeared”
(2) Distillation of lessons from comparative appraisals of current and past practices
“foresight ≠ hindsight”
(3) Construction of a solid cooperative foundation for research and management
73
(4) Assess how policies and practices have been diffused and become embedded in other localized or specialized policy processes
(5) Stimulate the innovation and field-testing of policy experiments for adaptation across climate timescales (not just a particular climate scenario): Need for innovative research partnerships
Adaptation experiences to inform governance (2)
74
• Integrate an understanding of local contexts and contending perspectives with an understanding of how new information becomes framed and socialized into agendas;
• Assess impediments and opportunities to the flow of information including issues of credibility, legitimacy, and acceptability;
75
Western RCC Desert Research
Institute
RISA – Pacific Northwest
RISA – California
RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS
High Plains RCC University of Nebraska
Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey
InternationalResearch Institute
Northeast RCC Cornell University
Climate PredictionCenter, Climate Services Division
National ClimaticData Center
Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural
Resources
RISA – Florida
Southern RCC Louisiana State
University
National CenterRegional Center
RISA’s
States ParticipatingIn Two Regions
RISA – Western Water
Climate Diagnostic Center
Pacific ENSOApplications
Center
RISA – NewHampshire
NWS RHQ
NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers
76
C. Policy contexts and decision-making
processes
D. Dynamic dialogue between researchers (non-decisive) and practitioners (decisive) on problem-definition:
shared understanding of significance and value conflicts
B. Range of scientific knowledge frames:
predictive capabilities uncertainty, ignorance/
indeterminacy
Interactions:
Participatory Assessments:action-research orientation
A. Assessments:Situation
ParticipantsActivities
NeedsResources/Capacity
Constraints:
Time,$,
Rates of change
77
RISAs, universities, and labs
Integrating knowledge and products (CDC,
ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs)
Operational (RCCs, NCDC, CPC, WFOs, SCs,
other private sector)
Reg
ion
al O
vers
igh
t an
d E
valu
atio
n
OT
HE
R N
ON
-NO
AA
P
AR
TN
ER
S
new or enhanced regional products information delivery technology sustained & systematic communication and feedback
RESEARCH
&
DEVELOPMENT
&
IMPLEMENTATION
&
SERVICES
A Prototype Pathway for RegionalClimate Information Services
78
• Goal:Goal: To enable the Nation to move To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts.approach to droughts.
• “WGA believes NOAA should be designated as the federal lead for NIDIS. NOAA should take the initiative to convene and coordinate all of the relevant entities, including federal and non-federal partners, as well as scientists, water users and policy-makers to implement those aspects of NIDIS that can be accomplished under existing authorities and funding.”
National Integrated National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Information System
(NIDIS)(NIDIS)
www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf
“Creating a National Drought Early Warning System”
79Doing the wrong thing…more preciselyDoing the wrong thing…more precisely
80
Climate Research Impacts Society… Unexpectedly?
81
A pathetic track record for implementation of environmental assessment and adaptive
management:
Successful Modeling failure Implementation failureSuccessful Modeling failure Implementation failure
82
We can now build some really impressive looking models
Water management regime
Flow Turbidity Temperature
Benthic algae Riparian vegetation
DetritusAquatic insects Terrestrial insects
Exotic fishes Native fishes
Sparrows etc.
Cowbird
Water birds
Peregrine falcon
83
Early Warning (sub)Systems • MonitoringMonitoring and forecasting subsystem and forecasting subsystem
National, regional and local levelsNational, regional and local levels
• Risk assessment sub-systemRisk assessment sub-system Enable disaster management authorities to generate risk and impact Enable disaster management authorities to generate risk and impact
scenariosscenarios
• Preparedness sub-systemPreparedness sub-system
Outline and inform actions required to reduce the loss andOutline and inform actions required to reduce the loss anddamage expected from an impending hazard event: Who? What? damage expected from an impending hazard event: Who? What? When?When?
• Communication and public awareness sub-systemCommunication and public awareness sub-systemCommunication/delivery of timely information on impending events, Communication/delivery of timely information on impending events, potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable groupsgroups
• Evaluation and feedback sub-systemEvaluation and feedback sub-system
Scale:Scale: Who are the actors? What are their perspectives and needs? Who are the actors? What are their perspectives and needs? What are the entry points for decision-making? What decisions are What are the entry points for decision-making? What decisions are made? How can this process be improvedmade? How can this process be improved
84
National Integrated Drought Information System
Research PredictionMonitoring
ImpactMitigation
ProactivePlanning
ImprovedResponses
Customer defined measures of drought
Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels
Integrating Tools
85
Response•Choice•Adoption of practice
Adjustment process•Perception•evaluation
Hazard effects•Costs and losses•gains
Natural HazardDisaster
Natural systemVariation/change•Magnitude•Duration•frequency
Social system•Variation/change•Exposure
Modify societal characteristics
Modify biophysical characteristics
Emergency adjustments
86
Criteria for ŅKeyÓ Vu lnerability Vulnerable Sector or Activity
Magnitude Rates of Change
Persistence and reversibility
Likelihood and confidence
Potential for Adaptation
Distribution
Bounded ecosystems such as coastal, mountain and already stressed
State magnitudes of vulnerability for different magnitudes of change, especially thresholds, relative to temperature, precipitation or the other critical parameters that create the vulnerability
State any critical rates of change that affect vulnerability
Provide information on the likelihood that the vulnerable sector will be affected by an irreversible impact and whether it is likely to persist.
Overall confidence and likelihood, but state confidence also with any specific figures or points.
State capacity for adaptation. Is adaptive capacity sufficient to delay or prevent adverse impacts and at what cost.
Provide information on the distribution of impacts Š both physically and socially within countries (not in a simple developed/developing dichotomy).
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EVENT PREPAREDNESS STATUSReturn period,DurationMagnitude,SeasonalityUncertainty
Self protectionIncome Distribution Generation & allocation(location, building Livelihood surplus
quality Opportunity
Social Protection Social power&controlHurricanes (Building regulations GENDER Debt crises
level of scientific Household Environmental degradationknowledge/use) Security,Nutrition
FloodDrought
RESILIENCE? CULTURE//STATEEarthquakes Strength of assets Income,Assets InstitutionalVolcanic Discrimination SupportActivity Recovery of - Regional
livelihood - LocalLandscape Impacts of previous
interventions Biases, Training
Disease HEALTH Social precaution/Infrastructure, Individual robustnessHousehold activities,Access to reliable potable water, treatment
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Hazard Vulnerability Socio-economic National and Political Economy International Policy
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Political ecology of disasters Pulwarty and Riebsame, 1997; Blaikie et al 1994 others