Role of Innovation System in Coffee Agroforestry
System to Adapt to Climate Change in Kenyan Coffee
and Dairy Sectors
Presenter:
Kinfe ASAYEHEGN
Co-authors: Ludovic TEMPLE, Cirad UMR Innovation
Ana IGLESIAS,
1
Acknowledgements
Presentation PlanIntroduction
Area of the Study
Data and Methods
Results and Discussion
Conclusions
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Why to adapt to climate change
The IPCC biophysical and socio-ecological working groups
and other researchers confirmed that climate change is a
reality.
An increase in global food demand: demand for cereals, is
expected to increase by 70% (Smith et al., 2006) and
livestock products by 50% in the next half
century(Thornton, 2010).
Agriculture is among the sectors highly affected by CC
(Bryan et al., 2013; Lobell et al., 2008).
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Climate change impacts in agriculture ( IPCC, 2013)
2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERCEN
TAG
E O
FYIE
LD
PRO
JECTIO
NS
02090-2109
0 – -5%
-5 – -10%
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increasein Yield
Decreasein Yield
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Why Innovation in coffee agroforestry?
An adjustment to the actual or expected changes in the agricultural sector using different innovative adaptation strategies has to be among priorities in policy decisions.
Adaptation- process of adjustment to actual or expected climate effects, seeks to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2014)
Different agents (producers, institutions, food industries) and
scales (from individual to global scale) (Wreford et al. 2010)
Reducing the sensitivity of the affected system
Altering the exposure of a system to the impact
Increasing the resilience and building capacity of socio-ecological systems ( Adger, 2006; Gallopin, 2006) .
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This presentation therefore focuses on two case studies
in the Kenyan coffee based agroforestry system, i.e. the
coffee and dairy sectors, which differ in terms of
stakeholders and institutional setups.
1) what characteristics of the innovation systems are particular to each sector
in the adaptation process to climate change?
2) How these characteristics of the innovation affect the adaptation process
and competitiveness of the sectors?
Data collection Survey data
Face-to-face FGDs 9 FGDs
Household interviews120 interviews
Historical analysis
Key informant interviews
Stakeholders‘ interview (n=23) Officials and experts : MOA, CRI, cooperatives and unions, private
sectors, international Research centres, NGOs, CBOs,
Historical climate data (1980-2014) , public data bases
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Coffee farmers
Dairy farmers
Methodology
(1) characterized the innovation system of the coffee sector and
dairy sector separately,
(2) combined the analysis to understand the difference in the
innovation system of the two sectors and what affects for the
competitiveness across the sectors,
Measured changes in Temperature
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Measured changes in Rainfall
y = -17,102x + 1487,2R² = 0,1814
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
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82
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84
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92
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98
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00
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02
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04
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06
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08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Rai
nfa
ll in
mm
Years
Coffee zone
y = -0,6509x + 941,31R² = 0,0006
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
19
80
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82
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98
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00
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02
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06
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Rai
nfa
ll in
mm
Years
Food crops zone
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Mann-Kendall test of significance
Variable Mann-
Kendall’s tau
p-value Sen’s slope Mean
T Max 0.503 <0.0001** 0.043 25.75
T min 0.509 <0.0001** 0.032 14.19
T inter annual variability 0.592 <0.0001** 0.037 0.033
Rainfall coffee -0.334 0.0040** -17.100 1179.00
Rainfall food -0.052 0.6730 -1.485 925.72
Significance level(%): 5
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Actors’ interaction in the coffee sector
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Actors’ interaction in the dairy sector
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ConclusionsFarmers who are aware of CC are more willing to explore adaptation
strategies, further improves their hh income.
The strong correlation b/n socio-institutional variables and adaptation
suggests the need for the establishment of local institutions
Adaptation to CC in the coffee and dairy depends on the roles of SSI
in the coffee, actors’ system is centralized and the SI is oriented on
technology dev’t while the dairy sector, is based on institutional building.
The capacity to innovate, depends on institutional arrangement in
addition to the technology dev’t, suggesting the dairy could be an
example for the coffee sector.
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Difference between sectors
In the coffee sector, the actors’ system is highly centralized
and the SI is oriented towards technology development.
In the dairy sector consists of a diversity of actors, and its SI is
based on institutional building and marketing.
Sintesis :
The capacity to innovate and adapt in the coffee agroforestry
system, depends on specificities of sector (institutional
arrangements, to technology development
Suggesting that the dairy sector in Kenya could be an
example for the coffee sector ?
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