Role of UTC Research in Informing Policymakers

B. Starr McMullen Professor of Economics Oregon State University

Two levels of research

•Helping with specific policies at local/state level

•Contributing to the “state of the art” that can be more generally applied

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS:A Critical Factor In Making Informed Policy Decisions

TWO EXAMPLES

Example 1: RUFTF Legislative Mandate

“To develop a design for revenue collection for Oregon roads and highways that will replace the current system for revenue collection”

VMT Fee Suggested

Motivation

Vehicle Mile Fee Recommendation from state RUFTF was meeting opposition based on hypothesized equity/distributional considerations

Techniques For Assessing The Socio-economic Effects Of Vehicle Mileage Fees (ODOT And OTREC), 2009

B. Starr McMullen & Lei Zhang)

Revenue neutral tax increases increases regressivity very slight/insignificant---not anywhere near impact of higher gasoline prices or higher fuel taxes.

No negative impact on rural versus urban areas (actually rural areas benefit slightly).

Results

Introduced in the current (2011) State Legislature

Requires persons operating electric motor vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric motor vehicles to pay vehicle road usage charge.

Recommended for passage, has not yet come to vote

t

Oregon HB 2328

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Example 2: GHG Mandates

The Oregon State legislature:

GHG levels 10% below 1990 levels (2020) and 75% below 1990 levels (2050).

Washington State legislature:

Reduce per capita VMT 25% below 1990 levels (2035) (Winkelman 2009).

Federal Surface Transportation Policy and Planning Act of 2009:

Annually reduce national per capita VMT, increase public transportation usage, intercity passenger rail services, and non-motorized transportation

(Commerce Committee 2009).

Transportation GHG

reduction

Fuel Carbon Content

Vehicle Fuel

Efficiency Vehicle

Miles Traveled

2010-2011 OTREC Research

” The Relationship Between VMT and Economic Activity”

Provide analytical results to policymakers to help forecast the effect that metropolitan GHG/VMT reduction policies will have on the local economy.

Study Scope

Test for Causation (Granger Causality Tests) Examine How Determinants of VMT differ

between Urban Areas depending on UA characteristics such as availability of transit, industry structure, urban density, etc.

Results should help make informed policy choices for GHG reduction that may differ between UAs.

Conclusions:

UTC Research Projects Provide Information To Help Policymakers Make Informed Decisions

UTC Projects Tend To Produce Results That Contribute To The Body Of Knowledge In The Field.