Roles of Fission and Fusion Energy in a Carbon-Constrained WorldFarrokh NajmabadiProf. of Electrical EngineeringDirector of Center for Energy ResearchUC San Diego
Zero-Carbon Energy 2012 SymposiumSiam City Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand22-23 May 2012
The Energy Challenge
Scale:World energy use ~ 450 EJ/year
~ 14 TW1 EJ = 1018 J = 24 Mtoe1TW = 31.5 EJ/year
Market Penetration Timing:Fastest: Nuclear power installations (~30 years to produce 8% of world energy).
Economics:World energy sales: $4.5T US energy sales: $1.5T
With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate)
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400
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Prim
ary
Ener
gy p
er c
apita
(GJ)
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
US
Australia
Russia
Brazil
China
India
S. Korea
Mexico
IrelandFrance
UKJapan
Malaysia
Energy use increases with Economic Development
Data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Thailand
Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use.
Typical goals: HDI of 0.9 at 3 toe per capita for developing countries. For all developing countries to reach this point, would need world energy
use to double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1 billion expected in 2030.
HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)
World Primary Energy Demand is expect to grow substantially
Wor
ld E
nerg
y D
eman
d (M
toe)
Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios.
World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030). Scenarios are very sensitive to assumption about China.
Energy supply will be dominated by fossil fuels for the foreseeable future
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1980 2004 2010 2015 2030
Mtoe OtherRenewables
Biomass &waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
’04 – ’30 Annual Growth
Rate (%)
Total
6.5
1.3
2.0
0.7
2.0
1.3
1.8
1.6
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case), Business as Usual (BAU) case
Technologies to meet the energy challenge do not exist
Improved efficiency and lower demand Huge scope but demand has always risen faster due to long turn-over
time.
Renewables Intermittency, cost, environmental impact.
Carbon sequestration Requires handling large amounts of C (Emissions to 2050
=2000Gtonne CO2)
Fission Fuel cycle and waste disposal
Fusion Probably a large contributor in the 2nd half of the century
Energy Challenge: A Summary
Large increases in energy use is expected.
IEA world Energy Outlook indicate that it will require increased use of fossil fuels Air pollution & Global Warming Will run out sooner or later
Limiting CO2 to 550ppm by 2050 is an ambitious goal. USDOE: “The technology to generate this amount of emission-free
power does not exist.” IEA report: “Achieving a truly sustainable energy system will call for
radical breakthroughs that alter how we produce and use energy.”
Public funding of energy research is down 50% since 1980 (in real term). World energy R&D expenditure is 0.25% of energy market of $4.5 trillion.
Most of public energy expenditures is in the form of subsidies
Coal44.5%
Oil and gas30%
Fusion 1.5%
Fission 6%
Renewables18%
Energy Subsides (€28B) and R&D (€2B) in the EU
Source : EEA, Energy subsidies in the European Union: A brief overview, 2004. Fusion and fission are displayed separately using the IEA government-R&D data base and EURATOM 6th framework programme dataSlide from C. Llewellyn Smith, UKAEA
Fission (seeking a significant fraction of World Energy Consumption of 14TW)
There is a growing acceptance that nuclear power should play a major role
Emissions and Energy 1980-2004
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5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0 100 200 300 400
Primary energy per capita (Gj)
CO2
per c
apita
(ton
nes)
USAUKFranceJapanChinaBrazilIrelandMexicoMalaysiaS. KoreaGreeceIndiaAustraliaRussiaThailand
Coal Oil
Gas
France
Large expansion of nuclear power, however, requires rethinking of fuel cycle and waste disposal, e.g., reprocessing, deep burn of actinides, Gen IV reactors.
Nuclear power is already a large contributor to world energy supply Nuclear power provide 8% of world total energy demand
(20% of US electricity) Operating reactors in 31 countries
438 nuclear plants generating 353 GWe Half of reactors in US, Japan, and France 104 reactor is US, 69 in France
30 New plants in 12 countries under construction
1990 1994 2000 2001 20020
200
400
600
800
1000
US
Nuc
lear
Ele
ctric
ity (G
Wh) No new plant in US for more
than two decades Increased production due to
higher availability 30% of US electricity growth Equivalent to 25 1GW plantsExtended license for many plants
Evolution of Fission Reactors
Challenges to long-term viability of fission
Economics: Reduced costs Reduced financial risk (especially licensing/construction time)
Safety Protection from core damage (reduce likelihood) Eliminate offsite radioactive release potential
Sustainability Efficient fuel utilization Waste minimization and management Non-proliferation
Reprocessing and Transmutation Gen IV Reactors
Uranium Resources
120 years at IEA expected 2030 use, 40 years if nuclear displaces 50% of fossil fuels.
Unless U can be extracted from sea water cheaply, breeders are necessary within this century.
Note: COE is insensitive to U cost (+$100/kg U → 0.25 c/kWh)
Large Expansion of Nuclear Power Requires Reprocessing of Waste
From Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative: http://www.nuclear.gov/AFCI_RptCong2003.pdf
Gen IV International Forum (10 parties) has endorsed Six Gen IV Concepts for R&D
Very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (safety, hydrogen production)
Lead-cooled Fast Reactor (sustainability, safety) Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor (sustainability, economics) Supercritical-water-cooled reactor (economics) Molten Salt reactor (sustainability) Sodium-cooled fast rector (sustainability)
Most use closed-cycle fast-spectrum to reduced waste heat and radiotoxicity (to extend repository capacity) and to breed fuel.
Two High-Temperature Helium-Cooled Reactors Are Currently Operating in Asia
HTTR reached outlet temperature of 950°C at 30 MW on April 19, 2004.
Prismatic-Block
HTTR in Japan
Pebble-BedHTR-10 in
China
Fusion: Looking into the future
ARIES-AT tokamak Power plant
Brining a Star to Earth
DT fusion has the largest cross section and lowest temperature (~100M oC). But, it is still a high-temperature plasma!
Plasma should be surrounded by a Li-containing blanket to generate T. Or, DT fusion turns its waste (neutrons) into fuel!
Through careful design, only a small fraction of neutrons are absorbed in structure and induce radioactivity.
For liquid coolant/breeders (e.g., Li, LiPb), most of fusion energy is directly deposited in the coolant simplifying energy recovery
Practically no resource limit (1011 TWy D; 104 (108) TWy 6Li)
D + 6Li 2 4He + 3.5 MeV (Plasma) + 17 MeV (Blanket)
D + T 4He (3.5 MeV) + n (14 MeV)n + 6Li 4He (2 MeV) + T (2.7 MeV)
nT
Fusion Energy Requirements:
Heating the plasma for fusion reactions to occur to 100 Million oC (routinely done in present experiments)
Confining the plasma so that alpha particles sustain fusion burn Lawson Criteria: ntE ~ 1021 s/m3
Optimizing plasma confinement device to minimize the cost Smaller devices Cheaper systems, e.g., lower-field magnets (MFE) or lower-
power lasers (IFE)
Extracting the fusion power and breeding tritium Co-existence of a hot plasma with material interface Developing power extraction technology that can operate in
fusion environment
Two Approaches to Fusion Power – 1) Inertial Fusion
Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) Fast implosion of high-density DT capsules by laser or particle beams
(~30 fold radial convergence, heating to fusion temperature). A DT burn front is generated, fusing ~1/3 of fuel (to be demonstrated in
National Ignition Facility in Lawrence Livermore National Lab). Several ~300 MJ explosions per second with large gain (fusion
power/input power).
Two Approaches to Fusion Power –2) Magnetic Fusion
Rest of the Talk is focused on MFE
Magnetic Fusion Energy (MFE) Particles confined within a “toroidal magnetic bottle” for 10’s km
and 100’s of collisions per fusion event. Strong magnetic pressure (100’s atm) to confine a low density but
high pressure (10’s atm) plasma. At sufficient plasma pressure and “confinement time”, the 4He
power deposited in the plasma sustains fusion condition.
Plasma behavior is dominated by “collective” effects
Pressure balance (equilibrium) does not guaranty stability. Example: Interchange stability
Impossible to design a “toroidal magnetic bottle” with good curvatures everywhere.
Fortunately, because of high speed of particles, an “averaged” good curvature is sufficient.
Outside part of torus inside part of torusFluid Interchange Instability
Tokamak is the most successful concept for plasma confinement
R=1.7 m
DIII-D, General AtomicsLargest US tokamak
Many other configurations possible depending on the value and profile of “q” and how it is generated (internally or externally)
T3 Tokamak achieved the first high temperature (10 M oC) plasma
R=1 m
0.06 MAPlasma Current
JET is currently the largest tokamak in the world
R=3 m
ITER Burning plasma experiment (under construction)
R=6 m
Progress in plasma confinement has been impressive
500 MW of fusion Power for 300s Construction has started in France
Fusi
on tr
iple
pro
duct
n (1
021 m
-3) t
(s) T
(keV
)
ITER Burning plasma experiment
Large amount of fusion power has also been produced
ITER Burning plasma experiment
DT Experiments
DD Experiments
Fusion Energy Requirements:
Confining the plasma so that alpha particles sustain fusion burn Lawson Criteria: ntE ~ 1021 s/m3
Heating the plasma for fusion reactions to occur to 100 Million oC (routinely done in present experiments)
Optimizing plasma confinement device to minimize the cost Smaller devices Cheaper systems, e.g., lower-field magnets (MFE) or lower-
power lasers (IFE) Extracting the fusion power and breeding tritium
Developing power extraction technology that can operate in fusion environment
Co-existence of a hot plasma with material interface
ITER and Satellite tokamaks (e.g., JT60-SU in Japan) should demonstrate operation of a fusion plasma (and its support technologies) at the power plant scale.
We have made tremendous progress in optimizing fusion plasmas
Substantial improvement in plasma performance though optimization of plasma shape, profiles, and feedback.
Achieving plasma stability at high plasma pressure.
Achieving improved plasma confinement through suppression of plasma turbulence, the “transport barrier.”
Progress toward steady-state operation through minimization of power needed to maintain plasma current through profile control.
Controlling the boundary layer between plasma and vessel wall to avoid localized particle and heat loads.
Fusion Energy Requirements:
Confining the plasma so that alpha particles sustain fusion burn Lawson Criteria: ntE ~ 1021 s/m3
Heating the plasma for fusion reactions to occur to 100 Million oC (routinely done in present experiments)
Optimizing plasma confinement device to minimize the cost Smaller devices Cheaper systems, e.g., lower-field magnets (MFE) or lower-power
lasers (IFE) Extracting the fusion power and breeding tritium
Developing power extraction technology that can operate in fusion environment
Co-existence of a hot plasma with material interface
New structural material should be developed for fusion application
Fe-9Cr steels: builds upon 9Cr-1Mo industrial experience and materials database (9-12 Cr ODS steels are a higher temperature future option) SiC/SiC: High risk, high performance option (early in its development path) W alloys: High performance option for PFCs (early in its development path)
Irradiation leads to a operating temperature window for material
Additional considerations such as He embrittlement and chemical compatibility may impose further restrictions on operating window
Radiation embrittlement
Thermal creep
Zinkle and Ghoniem, Fusion Engr. Des. 49-50 (2000) 709
Carnot=1-Treject/Thigh
Structural Material Operating Temperature Windows: 10-50 dpa
Several blanket Concepts have been developed
Simple, low pressure design with SiC structure and LiPb coolant and breeder.
Innovative design leads to high LiPb outlet temperature (~1,100oC) while keeping SiC structure temperature below 1,000oC leading to a high thermal efficiency of ~ 60%.
Dual coolant with a self-cooled PbLi zone, He-cooled RAFS structure and SiC insert
Flow configuration allows for a coolant outlet temperature to be higher than maximum structure temperature
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ARIES-STARIES-RS
Act
ivit
y (C
i/Wth
)
Time Following Shutdown (s)
1 mo 1 y 100 y1 d
After 100 years, only 10,000 Curies of radioactivity remain in the585 tonne ARIES-RS fusion core.
SiC composites lead to a very low activation and afterheat.
All components of ARIES-AT qualify for Class-C disposal under NRC and Fetter Limits. 90% of components qualify for Class-A waste.
Ferritic SteelVanadium
Radioactivity levels in fusion power plantsare very low and decay rapidly after shutdown
Level in Coal Ash
Waste volume is not large
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Blanket Shield VacuumVessel
Magnets Structure Cryostat
Cum
ulat
ive
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pact
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aste
Vol
ume
(m3)
1270 m3 of Waste is generated after 40 full-power year (FPY) of operation. Coolant is reused in other power plants 29 m3 every 4 years (component replacement), 993 m3 at end of service
Equivalent to ~ 30 m3 of waste per FPY Effective annual waste can be reduced by increasing plant service life.
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Class A Class C
Cum
ulative Com
pacted
Was
te Volum
e (m
3)
90% of waste qualifies for Class A disposal
Advances in fusion science & technology has dramatically improved our vision of fusion power plants
Estimated Cost of Electricity (c/kWh)
02468
101214
Mid 80'sPhysics
Early 90'sPhysics
Late 90's Physics
AdvancedTechnology
Major radius (m)
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Mid 80's Pulsar
Early 90'sARIES-I
Late 90'sARIES-RS
2000 ARIES-AT
In Summary, …
In a CO2 constrained world uncertainty abounds
No carbon-neutral commercial energy technology is available today (except nuclear power). A large investment in energy R&D is needed. A shift to a hydrogen economy or carbon-neutral syn-fuels is
also needed to allow continued use of liquid fuels for transportation.
Problem cannot be solved by legislation or subsidy. We need technical solutions. Technical Communities should be involved or considerable public
resources would be wasted The size of energy market ($4.5T annual sale, TW of power) is
huge. Solutions should fit this size market 100 Nuclear plants = 20% of electricity production of US $75B annual R&D represents 5% of energy sale of $1.5T (US sales).
Status of fusion power
Over 15 MW of fusion power is generated (JET, 1997) establishing “scientific feasibility” of fusion power Although fusion power < input power.
ITER will demonstrate “technical feasibility” of fusion power by generating copious amount of fusion power (500MW for 300s) with fusion power > 10 input power.
Tremendous progress in understanding plasmas has helped optimize plasma performance considerably. Vision of attractive fusion power plants exists.
Transformation of fusion into a power plant requires considerable R&D in material and fusion nuclear technologies (largely ignored or under-funded to date). This step, however, can be done in parallel with ITER
Large synergy between fusion nuclear technology R&D and Gen-IV.
Thank You