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L’Europe en 2050 Quel mode de vie?
Domenico ROSSETTICommission européenne, DG RTD*
* S’exprimant à titre personnel
Collège Belgique Académie royale des Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux-Arts
Bruxelles, 28 mars 2012
A blurring world
Public - Private sectors
Professional - Private life
Manufacturing – Services
Faith - Reason
Source: D. Rossetti
Society and Science
Man – Technology & Humanities – EngineeringDesign of a car - Efficiency of the combustion engine
Social habits - Technological developmentsAirplane service on board - Online reservation
But scientist is more and more engaged in societal and ethical debate (DNA, GMO, nuclear)
Source: D. Rossetti
EU strategic and long-term policies
“Europe 2020 Strategy”
A Budget for Europe 2020 (MFF)
Horizon 2020, the future FP for R&I
Rio+20: towards the green economy and better governanceRoadmaps for low carbon economy, for transport and for energy in 2050
Source: European Commission
European population
Source: UN Population statistics and DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)
The EU working population will be less than 35% by 2050
EU health exp.: from 8% of GDP today to ~12% in 2050
The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple
Migrations
Per year, ~1.5 million of third countries people are entering the EU20% of the EU population will be Muslim by 2050
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050
Brazil's foreign trade in agro-food
B$
Source: CEPII-CHELEM, 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1967 1977 1988 1996 1997 1999 2000 2004 2008 2009
ExportImport
Share of the world productionof electronic products
Source: EC, DG RTD, Global Europe 2050 (L. Fontagné)
“Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent”
Gonzalez report “Europe 2030”
Source: NASA and WWF
RURAL63%
RBAN37%
RURAL53%
RURAL40%
Climate change observation
The melting of ice caps in the Arctic and Greenland
Urbanisation rate and megacities
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)UN-Habitat
23 M inh.New Delhi
25 M inh.Seoul
Tokyo 34 M inh.
Sao Paolo 21 M inh.
Increasing of tensions
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025
Water (3 billion people missing water by 2030)
Food (70% increase by 2050)
Land (war on lands)
Materials (lithium, gallium, scandium,…)
Energy
Oil reserves in the hands of national companies (in billion barrels)
Source: The Wall Street Journal, 22/5/2010
99Venezuela National Oil company
136Iranian National Oil Company
260Saoudi Oil Company
8 Exxon Mobil
Gross energy consumption (in Mtoe)The potential for savings
Source: European Commission, DG ENER,EU energy Roadmap 2050
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Range regarding decarbonisation scenarios
Range for current trends scenarios
Energy by 2100
Energy used for food will double
Energy for thermal comfort and living-spaceheating and cooling will triple
Energy for mobility will increase by a factor 5
Energy for self-fulfilment will increase mostSource: EC, DG RTD , WETO-T (B. Chateau & D. Rossetti)
6
10 5
10 4
10 3
10 2
10 1
10
Oral communicationthrough language
Picture and symbolcommunication
Writing
Book printing
Mass educationMass media
Totalinterconnectivity
Years ago
Human societiesand information
Source: EC, DG RTD, FARHORIZON (V. Van Rij)
Unsustainable lifestyle trendsWorld meat consumption has been multiplied by 5 since1960Final consumption of food and drink, private transportation and housing lead to almost 80% of Europe’s environmental impactsResidential sector accounts for 40% of Europe’s total energy consumption (with almost 70% for H&C)Car ownership in the EU increased by 35% between 1990 and 2007. EU-drivers own over one third of the world’s 750 million automobiles
Source: EC, DG RTD, SPREAD and D. Rossetti
Energy and transport
T im e
T r a n sp o r t e n e r g y p e r in h a b ita n t
A v e r a g e sp e e d s
T im e in tr a n sp o r t p e r
p e r so n
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, VLEEM (B. Chateau)
Doubling of world energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in most of the scenarios
“Malthus’ revenge” - Replacing “population” with “consumption” in the quote: “the power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race”
Malthus revenge
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-H2 and Luc Soete
Drinking water
Bread, pasta, rice, couscous,fruits, vegetables
Every main meal
Every day Dairies (pref. low fat), olive oil, herbs, seeds, garlic, onions
Weekly Poultry, fish/ seafood, eggs
SweetsMeat
Modern Med. diet
Adults (18-65 years)
Physical activity Conviviality SeasonaPhysical activity Conviviality Seasonality Local productslity Local products
Source: 3° Int. CIISCAM Conf., Parma, Italy, 2009
Time used for food and information (2000-2100)
Source: EC, DG RTD, WETO-T (B. Chateau and D. Rossetti)
Hours/day/pers
Information index
Risk size
Time
Traditional risksTraditional risks
Modern risksModern risks
TobaccoPhysical inactivityObesity
Urban air qualityRoad traffic safetyOccupational risk
UndernutritionIndoor air pollutionWater, sanitation and hygiene
The risk transition
Source: WHO, 2009
Sustainable development
European Council Conclusions (1-2 March 2012) underlined the strong support for an ambitious outcome at the Rio+20 UN Conference on SD that should:
Advance the global transition towards a green economy (envir. protection, poverty eradication, resource-efficient growth)Work towards clear operational targets at national and international level within agreed time framesAdvance the work on global post-2015 goals for sustainable development, incl. Millennium Development Goals
Source: European Council, 2012
European socio-economic models
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, ICATSEM (G. Jackson)
Bank-oriented
Bank-oriented
Market-oriented
Finance
Highlyregulatedtowardsdereg.
State-dominated
State-based
CorporatismStakeholder-oriented
Rhenan
Highlyregulatedtowardsdereg.
ConservativeState-based
ConflictarianInsider-dominated
Mediterranean
Dereg. but promotion of R&D
LiberalMarket-based
Pluralism -Voluntarism
Shareholder-oriented
Anglo-Saxon
Industrialpolicy
WelfareState
Educ. & training
Industrialrelations
Corporategovernance
Is the (Asian) State capitalism taking over the Western socio-economic models?
Are the three types of EU welfare states –combining family, market and state –
adapted to the future?
Source: D. Rossetti and ICATSEM
Welfare, Work and Wealth
Systemic Industrial / Innovation PolicyFitting to the competitive advantages of each regionPushed by globalisation Pulled by challenges and vision for Europe 2020 -“Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, WWWforEurope (K. Aiginger)
Some risksPerception that the “costs of non-Europe” are toolow to the richer MS and that the “costs of Europe” are too high to the weakest MSEuroscepticism and thinking that a Member State alone can play a significant role in the worldStandardization and harmonization (vs. personal values, creativity, imagination, emotion)NIMBY (Not in my backyard) and BANANA (Build absolutely nothing, anywhere, near anybody)
Source: D. Rossetti
A new European model of developmentTowards the socio-ecological transition?
Source: European Commission, DG RTD, The World in 2025
Social innovationsBeyond scientific and technological innovationNew collaborative consumption (sharing, swapping,…) - from ownership to access to goods and servicesSustainable ways of using products and services:
Efficient living (wasting less)Different living (quality vs. quantity)
New approaches to sustainable mobility options (eco-towns, sustainable city initiatives)
Source: EC, DG RTD, SPREAD and D. Rossetti
Cities of the futureGrowing city:
From sprawl to intensityOpen city:
From patchwork to mosaicSmart city:
From exploitation to efficiencyCivic city:
From marketization to new governanceSource: EP, IBA Hamburg, HafenCity Hamburg
Paradigm shifts
Policy: beyond voting
Energy: beyond oil
Economy: beyond GDP
Lifestyle: beyond tangibles
Source: EC, DG RTD, PASHMINA (A. Ricci and C. Sessa)