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RSA SCANDINAVIA · 12/11/2013  · 7 SCANDINAVIA P&C LANDSCAPE: GEOGRAPHY AND MIX 60% . 32% 36% ....

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RSA SCANDINAVIA 12 November 2013
Transcript
Page 1: RSA SCANDINAVIA · 12/11/2013  · 7 SCANDINAVIA P&C LANDSCAPE: GEOGRAPHY AND MIX 60% . 32% 36% . 32% . Commercial Market* Denmark, based on GEP . Sweden, based on GWP . …

RSA SCANDINAVIA 12 November 2013

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2

This presentation may contain ‘forward-looking statements’ with respect to certain of the Group’s plans and its current goals and

expectations relating to its future financial condition, performance, results, strategic initiatives and objectives. Generally, words such as

“may”, “could”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “aim”, “outlook”, “believe”, “plan”, “seek”, “continue” or similar expressions

identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. By their nature, all

forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond the

Group’s control, including amongst other things, UK and Scandinavian domestic and global economic business conditions, market-

related risks such as fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, the policies and actions of regulatory authorities (including

changes related to capital and solvency requirements), the impact of competition, currency changes, inflation, deflation, the timing impact

and other uncertainties of future acquisitions or combinations within relevant industries, as well as the impact of tax and other legislation

or regulations in the jurisdictions in which the Group and its affiliates operate. As a result, the Group’s actual future financial condition,

performance and results may differ materially from the plans, goals and expectations set forth in the Group’s forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements in this presentation are current only as of the date on which such statements are made. The Group

undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, save in respect of any requirement under applicable law or

regulation. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast.

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3

Opening remarks

Scandinavian market and RSA’s position

RSA Scandinavia – Performance

RSA Scandinavia – Key Priorities

Summary

Q&A

Richard Houghton

Mike Holliday-Williams

Patrick Bergander

Mike Holliday-Williams

Mike Holliday-Williams

Management Team

AGENDA

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19%

24%

15%

Group H1 2013 NWP: £4.7bn

UK: 33% Western Europe: 9%

RSA SCANDINAVIA: SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE GROUP

• Outlook: Continue to expect growth in line with local GDP and CORs in the mid-high 80s

• Targeting an improving balance of profitability across the region

• Consistent profitability with CORs in the mid 80s for the last 5 years

• Consistently strong return on capital

• Strong capital flows back to Group

• Well regarded management team

4

Scandinavia: £1.1bn

13%

36% 40%

9% 2%

Group H1 2013 insurance result: £394m

Canada Scandinavia UK & Western Europe Emerging Markets

Scandinavia: £140m

Central functions

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5

Opening remarks

Scandinavian market and RSA’s position

RSA Scandinavia – Performance

RSA Scandinavia – Key Priorities

Summary

Q&A

Richard Houghton

Mike Holliday-Williams

Patrick Bergander

Mike Holliday-Williams

Mike Holliday-Williams

Management Team

AGENDA

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SCANDINAVIA: PROMISING ECOMONIC OUTLOOK

Real GDP Growth at market prices

Source: Eurostat, Forsikring og Pension, Svensk Försäkring, Finans Norge

MARKET GROWTH

DRIVEN BY GDP

COMBINED GDP OF £0.8 TRILLION

STABLE POLITICAL

ENVIRONMENT

6

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Denmark Sweden Norway

GDP CAGR Insurance Market CAGR

2005 - 2012

+0.1%

+1.7%

+1.2%

+2.8%

+2.3%

+4.6%

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7

SCANDINAVIA P&C LANDSCAPE: GEOGRAPHY AND MIX

60%

32%

36%

32%

Commercial Market*

Denmark, based on GEP Sweden, based on GWP Norway, based on portfolio premium

£6.9bn

34%

36%

30%

Personal Market*

£9.8bn

Top 4 players share of market

HIGHLY CONSOLIDATED MARKETS

75% 80%

Source: Forsikring og Pension, Svensk Försäkring, Finans Norge, RSA Estimates * Estimated

25% Gjensidige 25% If 15% Tryg 10% SpareBank 1 3% Codan (RSA)

20% Tryg 17% Topdanmark 13% Codan (RSA) 10% Alm. Brand

30% Länsförsäkringar 19% If 16% Trygg-Hansa (RSA) 15% Folksam

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8

SCANDINAVIA P&C LANDSCAPE: MARKET SHARE HISTORY

STABLE MARKET POSITIONS

21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

19% 19% 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17%

13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13%

10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

37% 37% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 40%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Tryg

Topdanmark

Alm. Brand

Other

Sweden

Denmark

31% 29% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29% 30%

20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%

18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16%

15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15%

16% 18% 18% 20% 19% 21% 21% 20%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LF

If

Folksam

Other

Source: Denmark: 2008-12(Q3) Forsikring og Pension available statistics, 2005-2007 from same source however slightly different definition, Sweden: Svensk Försäkring

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SCANDINAVIA P&C LANDSCAPE: DISTRIBUTION

Personal Lines Channel Mix

› Low dependency on broker/aggregator distribution in Personal Lines

› Bancassurance and online distribution is becoming more important

› In Commercial Direct sales including agents and call centres are larger channels than brokers

UK

9

30%

50%

70%

50%

40%

20%

10%

20%

30%

20%

30%

30%

Brokers Direct Sales Agents Affinity

Norway

Sweden

Denmark

0% 50% 100%

Commercial Lines Channel Mix

30%

35%

30%

95%

70%

65%

70%

Brokers Direct

0% 50% 100%

ACCESS TO OWN DISTRIBUTION IS KEY

Note: The Scandinavian numbers are RSA internal estimates on the markets. UK numbers are RSA’s UK distribution mix which we believe are broadly indicative of the market

5%

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10

SCANDINAVIAN PROFITABILITY BY COUNTRY

Norway

Sweden

Denmark

4.5 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

94% 88% 90% 93% 94% 99% 95% 90%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CONSISTENT PROFITABILITY ACROSS SCANDINAVIA

› Stable consolidated industry › 5yr average Danish gross COR: 94.1% › 5yr average Swedish net COR: 93.4% › 5yr average Norwegian net COR: 92.1%

2012 Top 10 by premiums (£m)1

If… 3,749 Tryg 2,213 Gjensidige 1,944 RSA Scandinavia 1,849 Länsförsäkringar 1,762 TopDanmark 954 Folksam 923 Sparebank 1 532 Alm. Brand 527 Sygeforsikringen DK 294 Top 10 14,747

Source: Forsikring & Pension (DK), Svensk Försäkring (SE), Finans Norge (NW) 1 Numbers include consolidated Group financials for each Nordic parent company. GEP for RSA, Tryg, TopDanmark, Alm. Brand and Sygeforsikringen Danmark. GWP for If, Gensidige, Länsförsäkringar and Folksam. Portfolio Premium for Sparebank1 Note: Danish COR are on gross basis and Swedish and Norwegian on net basis. Norway premiums exclude off-shore business however this included in COR

5.1 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.0

91% 95% 91% 90% 90% 95% 97% 95%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.2

91% 91% 93% 94% 96% 92% 92% 87%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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MARKET STRUCTURE AND PROFITABILITY IS SUSTAINABLE

11

› Highly consolidated markets

› Market history drives strong underwriting discipline

› Access to own distribution is key

› Strong brands with high loyalty and trust

› Continued growth in Sickness & Accident from demographic and social change

› Growing Global Renewable Energy market at around 30% to 2020

› More small business starting to trading direct

› Bancassurance and online becoming increasingly important

› Continued growth in Norway due to increasing insurance penetration

HISTORICAL STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

WITH GOOD PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER GROWTH

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12

Opening remarks

Scandinavian market and RSA’s position

RSA Scandinavia – Performance

RSA Scandinavia – Key Priorities

Summary

Q&A

Richard Houghton

Mike Holliday-Williams

Patrick Bergander

Mike Holliday-Williams

Mike Holliday-Williams

Management Team

AGENDA

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RSA SCANDINAVIA: HISTORY OF SUSTAINABLE PROFIT

1,548 1,583

1,696 1,733 1,701 1,719 1,745

1,791

94.3%

94.3% 91.3%

87.6% 85.4% 84.9% 85.2%

86.6%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NWP (£m Constant FX) COR

13

Note: Results presented under UK IFRS at constant FX

LOW AND STABLE COMBINED RATIO

2005 – 2012 CAGR: 2.1%

2005 – 2012 Avg: 88.7%

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14

COMMERCIAL FINANCIALS

Key drivers of historical performance › Rate driven growth › Growth in Norway, Renewable energy

and Risk Managed › Disciplined risk selection › Recent large losses experience not a

trend

Large Losses (% of NEP)

12% 13% 9% 9%

11%

22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 HY13

£m 2010 2011 2012 2010-12 HY13

NWP 782 802 818 +2.3% 555

Underwriting result 56 15 43 38 (25)

COR 93.5% 98.2% 94.6% 95.4% 102.3%

STABLE COR AND GROWTH

£m Denmark Sweden Norway Total

Motor 69 131 18 218

Property 167 118 21 306

Liability 78 36 12 126

Care 32 34 26 92

Marine 56 18 2 76

Total 402 337 79 818

2012 Net Written Premiums

Based on UK IFRS at constant FX

Long term average 11%

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15

PERSONAL FINANCIALS

Key drivers of historical performance › Rates ahead of claims inflation › Strong and improving retention › Balancing our portfolios › Danish turnaround progressing well

Rates minus claims inflation

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Denmark Sweden Norway

2010 2011 2012 2013

£m 2010 2011 2012 2010-12 HY13

NWP 937 943 973 +1.9% 563

Underwriting result 208 241 194 214 123

COR 77.7% 74.6% 80.0% 77.4% 75.2%

£m Denmark Sweden Norway Total

Motor 98 238 55 391

House & Content 122 152 24 298

Sickness & Accident 49 234 1 284

Total 269 624 80 973

2012 Net Written Premiums

Based on UK IFRS at constant FX

FOCUSED ON BALANCING OUR PORTFOLIO

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16

EXPENSE DEVELOPMENT

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sweden Denmark RSA Scandinavia

› RSA expense levels in line with market › Focus on expense reduction in Denmark › We are currently investing in the business to maintain our strong market position › Programme to improve cost efficiency and competitive edge

UW Expense Ratio excluding depreciation (%)

EXPENSES FLAT WHILE MAKING INVESTMENTS

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17

PRIOR YEAR PROFITS STARTING TO NORMALISE

Scandinavia prior year profits (£m)

› Material reserve strengthening in 2006

› Significant releases from:

- Swedish Motor and PA in 2009-11 in response to improving claims environment and experience

- 2010 and 2012 benefited from strong releases in Danish Workers Compensation

› Stable reserving methodology – significantly to the right side of best estimate

› Expect to continue to be a material contributor to the Group’s prior year result

SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FROM PRIOR YEARS

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 HY13

-7.5%

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

PY PY as % NEP

Reserve strength • Right side of best estimate with solid

margin • 6 years of consecutive positive run-offs

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HISTORY OF STRONG CURRENT YEAR RESULTS

1,548 1,583

1,696 1,733 1,701

1,791

95.7%

87.7%

91.8% 90.9% 91.9%

94.4% 94.3% 91.9%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NWP (£m Constant FX) COR CY COR

18

Based on UK IFRS at constant FX

Adverse winter weather

QUALITY OF RESULTS IMPROVING

1,719 1,745

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Scandinavia return on allocated equity

Allocation of total IFRS capital £1,200m

Allocation of shareholders funds £800m

H1 2013 Operating Result £137m

Allocated profit after tax £94m

Annualised H1 2013 ROE 23%

FY 2012 ROE 26%

19

RSA SCANDINAVIA GENERATES STRONG RETURNS

› Strong and consistent returns on equity

› Positive contribution to Group

› We are investing in the Scandinavian business

› Better balancing of the portfolio to safeguard future profitability

› Positive value creation since minority buy-out in 2007

Total Group IFRS capital represents £3.8bn shareholders equity and non-controlling interests, £1.4bn debt and prefs, plus £0.2bn IAS19 pension deficit. Based on allocation of central debt costs, pension costs and Group effective tax rate Based on 2x allocated H1 2013 profit after tax on closing allocated shareholders equity

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20

Opening remarks

Scandinavian market and RSA’s position

RSA Scandinavia – Performance

RSA Scandinavia – Key Priorities

Summary

Q&A

Richard Houghton

Mike Holliday-Williams

Patrick Bergander

Mike Holliday-Williams

Mike Holliday-Williams

Management Team

AGENDA

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21

RSA SCANDINAVIA: KEY PRIORITIES

Protect Swedish Profitability

Invest in CL Denmark

Exploit unique position in GSL

Leverage Group Capabilities

Grow in Norway

Improve PL Danish Performance

* Numbers include consolidated Group financials for each Nordic parent company. Local GAAP (official local accounts). Slightly different approach to calculate net COR between countries and entities. Growth based on NWP for RSA, Tryg, TopDanmark and Folksam. GWP for If, Gensidige and Alm. Brand. NEP for Länsförsäkringar

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

85% 90% 95% 100% 105%

Indu

stry

Ave

rage

Gro

wth

: 3.4

%

Pre

miu

m G

row

th (%

)

Scandinavian Peers 2010-2012 Average Performance*

Industry Average COR: 94% Net COR (%)

Länsförsäkringar

Folksam

Tryg

TopDanmark

If

Gjensidige

Alm. Brand

1

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22

PROTECTING PROFITABILITY IN PERSONAL LINES SWEDEN

H&C › Attractive business mix with strong position in Sickness & Accident and Motor

› Growth driven by Sickness & Accident and Household, improving retention and rates

› Efficient call centre with strong x-sell and outbound operation

› High level of customer service

› Historical actions taken on long tail business have generated strong prior year profits

› Improving current year performance driven by better risk selection and turn around in Home & Content

› Well placed to push rate when necessary given strong brand and reputation

4.5% GROWTH IN 2012 WITH IMPROVING PROFITABILITY

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

S&A Motor

581 583 592 597 624

* Excludes large losses, weather and claims handling expenses Note: at constant FX

NWP (£m)

Current Year UW result and CY underlying COR CY UL UW* (£m) CY UL COR*

134 173 162 180 187

78% 72% 73% 70% 70%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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23

SWEDISH PERSONAL LINES PERFORMANCE IS SUSTAINABLE

STRONG BRAND AND DISTRIBUTION

• 95% Brand awareness

• 75% Customer satisfaction

• Market leading consideration

• Brand refresh

Strong brand equity › High Trygg-Hansa brand reputation › Strong relations built over life time, 30% of children

(0-17 years) in Sweden insured by Trygg-Hansa › Strong customer focus

Efficient and customer focused distribution › Efficient call centre › Online growing at steady pace › 16% sold by tied agents (58% in Sickness & Accident) › No dependency on or immediate threat from

aggregators

Growing number of customers › Home & Content growing › Sickness & Accident loyalty strong with 95% retention › Customer motor renewal rate at 86% › Multi product holding also increasing 82%

83%

84%

85%

86%

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.20 Total no. T-H households Retention, %

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Direct

0% 25% 50% 75%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Tied Agents Affinity

Millions

Distribution mix

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STRONG POSITION IN SWEDISH SICKNESS & ACCIDENT

24

S&A NWP (£m) and Market share (%) development

S&A products retention rate

2009 2012

+9% 130

2012

+6%

2009

110

* Market share Individual Sickness & Accident Insurance

Adult S&A Child S&A

2012

95.6%

2009

95.8%

2009

95.9%

2012

95.3%

Adult S&A Child S&A

STRONG PROPOSITION AND CUSTOMER LOYALTY

71 54

47%* 52%* 57%* 59%*

› Trygg Hansa is synonymous with Child insurance

› Premium product with strong brand reputation › Unique proactive distribution model › 70% conversion from Child to Adult S&A

products › Large scale has allowed to build best in class

› Risk understanding › Claims history › Claims handling

› High customer loyalty c.95% retention

S&A product: • Medical and disability • Expenses for travel and hospitalisation • Tooth and scar accidents • Living expenses in critical illness • Economic coverage for long term disability

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25

IMPROVING PERFORMANCE IN PERSONAL LINES DENMARK

251 257 263 273 269

88% 87% 87% 90% 90%

97% 99% 105%

111%

94%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NWP (£m) COR

› Attractive profitable market

› Overall COR impacted by weather in 2010/11

› Stable underlying COR

› Lower level of growth with focus on improving profitability

ACTION TAKEN TO IMPROVE FUTURE PROFITABILITY

CY UL COR*

› c.40% rate increase across 10% of the portfolio 2012-2013

› Minimum premium for single policy S&A customers

› Improve risk selection reducing non-standard risks 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Claims Inflation Market indexation Codan Rates

Rates vs. Claims inflation heading

* Excludes large losses, weather and claims handling expenses Note: at constant FX

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26

IMPROVING PERFORMANCE IN PERSONAL LINES DENMARK

RETURNING TO PROFITABLE GROWTH

› Product development:

- Building the Sickness & Accident portfolio based on Swedish model

- Simplified contents proposition

› Customer service improvements to increase cross-selling and retention

› Brand refresh to improve appeal

› Established distribution channels

› Improved agent targeting

› Strong Bancassurance platform

› Best in class online process

› Improved market pricing for new business and renewals

Direct

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Field Agents

Affinity

Distribution mix

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27

INVESTING IN COMMERCIAL LINES DENMARK

445 421 400 412 401

79% 84% 82% 79% 79%

97% 99% 97% 94% 85%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

› Market leading position in Renewable Energy, Transportation, Profin and Marine

› Financial downturn has had strong impact on market growth

› Lower volumes also a consequence of active risk selection

› Attractive historical market underwriting performance

› Investments in new policy and administration platform (TIA)

Key priority areas › Migrate portfolio to new TIA platform › Achieve benefits around agility, transparency

and pricing sophistication › Grow in targeted industry segments › Grow in ‘Small Business’ segment

42%

19%

17%

14%

8%

£401m

Commercial Denmark by Segment

Property

Liability

Motor

Marine Care

INVESTING IN FUTURE PROFITABILITY

NWP (£m) COR CY UL COR*

* Excludes large losses, weather and claims handling expenses Note: at constant FX

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28

GROWING IN NORWAY

102% 104% 95% 97%

90%

109% 115% 116% 112%

96%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

› Good footprint in profitable growing market › Growth driven by Commercial and partnership › Distribution capacity built on agents, brokers,

Care partner and direct capabilities › Focused on building scale but also profitability Key priority areas › Improve system capability › Develop our Care business › Build on strong relationship with local and

Global brokers › Grow small segment via direct channels › Take advantage of online growth and expand

our agent network › Take advantage of our strength in Specialty

28%

7%

46%

1% 18%

Norway by Segment

Property/H&C

Liability

Motor

Marine Care/S&A

£159m

CL NWP, £m CY UL COR* COR

WELL POSITIONED TO INCREASE SHARE IN NORWAY

PL NWP, £m

87

109

133 130

159

* Excludes large losses, weather and claims handling expenses Note: at constant FX

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EXPLOIT UNIQUE POSITION IN GSL

Global Specialty Lines by Segment

› Global leading position in Offshore wind, 55% share of Onshore wind in Denmark

› Market leading in Denmark Marine with strong reputation for loss prevention and claims handling

› Strong growth within Risk Managed, Marine and Renewable Energy

Key priority areas › Maintain leadership in Renewable Energy c.50

future projects, Europe and Asia expansion › Codan is RSA Global Offshore wind Centre of

Excellence › Build capabilities in Risk Managed to support

further growth in Sweden and Norway › Growth in Marine Hull targeting brown water

and construction

LOCAL PRESENCE AND GLOBAL EXPERTISE

23%

9%

32%

11%

12%

3% 10%

Hull

Cargo

Renewable Energy

C&E

Property

Liability

Other

NWP, £m CY UL COR*

198 179 184

217 233

74% 68%

74% 69% 67%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

£233m

* Excludes large losses, weather and claims handling expenses Note: at constant FX

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LEVERAGING THE RSA GLOBAL GROUP

›Capital Management

›Reinsurance

›Underwriting, Pricing and Claims Expertise

›Global Specialty Lines

›On-line capabilities

›Centers of Excellence / Best Practice Sharing

›Risk Management

›Talent Development and Performance Management

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Opening remarks

Scandinavian market and RSA’s position

RSA Scandinavia – Performance

RSA Scandinavia – Key Priorities

Summary

Q&A

Richard Houghton

Mike Holliday-Williams

Patrick Bergander

Mike Holliday-Williams

Mike Holliday-Williams

Management Team

AGENDA

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SUMMARY

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Mature, highly profitable markets with well established and stable structure

Ability to import expertise from around the wider Group drives opportunities to outperform local competitors

Norway: growth opportunities in

an attractive market

Denmark: expect to benefit from

improving performance

Sweden: strong and leading

market positions

Scandinavian market

Our Scandinavian businesses

Stronger as part of the RSA Group

Strategic priorities

Exploit unique position in GSL

Invest in Denmark Commercial

Protect Swedish profitability

Leverage Group capabilities Grow in Norway Improve Denmark

Personal performance

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QUESTIONS


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