Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future...

Master thesis in Sustainable Development 2017/34 Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling

Rural Electrification and Societal

Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano

Community

Anton Ålund

Master thesis in Sustainable Development 2017/34 DEPARTMENT OF EARTH SCIENCES

I N S T I T U T I O N E N F Ö R

G E O V E T E N S K A P E R

Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling

Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia:

A Case Study in an Altiplano Community

Anton Ålund

Supervisor: Anders Lundblad Evaluator: Göran Lindbergh

Copyright © Anton Ålund. Published at Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University (www.geo.uu.se), Uppsala, 2017

Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community

ANTON ÅLUND

Ålund, A., 2017: Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community. Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No. 2017/34,46 pp, 15 ECTS/hp

Abstract: Social variables are a predominant force to community development in rural areas. However, research on how social aspects affect the energy situation as a community expands is to date limited. This study aims explore this void and investigate the following question:

“What could be a feasible pathway to reach a sustainable and resilient future state in Micaya, based on the impact of key variables within three different sectors: education, health and production?”

In this study, theories and models of rural electrification and scenario analysis are transposed and applied to community operated rural electrification in order to frame development. The investigation is restricted to focus on three social sectors, healthcare, education and production. Current literature confirmed that social aspects are missing in rural electrification programs.

Through interview and discussion with an established expert group important social variables have been identified in the study community. These variables lay the foundation for the scenario building used to define a desirable future in the case study community. It was found that the variables within the production sector are most influential to future developments in the study community.

The study revealed that energy access, especially access to electricity, is an essential condition for the development of rural communities. However, it does not guarantee an increase in productivity or effectiveness in social institutions in the absence of other development programs. The study also concludes that well-planned, carefully implemented rural electrification programs provide enormous benefits to rural people. Once an area has reached a certain level of development, further improvement of societal institutions depends on the availability of a secure and stable energy supply.

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Rural electrification, Energy assessment, Decentralized energy solutions, Scenario analysis, Minor Field Study

Anton Ålund, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden

Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community

ANTON ÅLUND

Ålund, A., 2017: Rural Electrification and Societal Impacts on Future Energy Demand in Bolivia: A Case Study in an Altiplano Community. Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No.2017/34, 46 pp, 15 ECTS/hp

Summary: Social variables are a predominant force to community development in rural areas. However, research on how social aspects affect the energy situation as a community expands is to date limited. This study aim to investigate the research question below, and, by doing so, contribute to the corresponding research area.


The research draws on current literature to develop a theoretical framework, used to fully understand the problem at hand. The investigation is restricted to focus on three social sectors, healthcare, education and production. To construct relevant future scenarios, interview and discussion with an established expert group identified important social variables. These variables serve as the foundation for the scenario building in the search for a desirable future in the study community.

It was found that the variables within the production sector are most influential to future developments in the study community. The study also revealed that energy access is an essential condition for the development of rural communities. However, it does not guarantee an increase in productivity or effectiveness in social institutions in the absence of other development programs. The study also concludes that well-planned, carefully implemented rural electrification programs provide enormous benefits to rural people. Once an area has reached a certain level of development, further improvement of societal institutions depends on the availability of a secure and stable energy supply.

Keywords: Sustainable Development, Rural electrification, Energy assessment, Decentralized energy solutions, Scenario analysis, Minor Field Study

Anton Ålund, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden

Table of Contents 1 Introduction...............................................................................................................................11.1 Background......................................................................................................................................11.2 FieldStudyArea-Micaya,Bolivia.............................................................................................21.3 ResearchScope................................................................................................................................31.3.1Purpose..............................................................................................................................................................3

1.3.2Aim.......................................................................................................................................................................3

1.3.3Objectives..........................................................................................................................................................4

1.3.4ResearchQuestion.........................................................................................................................................4

1.3.5Delimitations...................................................................................................................................................4

1.3.6StructureoftheThesis................................................................................................................................5

2 TheoreticalFramework.........................................................................................................62.1 ClimateChange................................................................................................................................62.1.1ClimateChangeinBolivia..........................................................................................................................7

2.2 EnergyinTheDevelopingWorld..............................................................................................82.2.1EnergyinBolivia............................................................................................................................................9

2.2.2Bolivia’sNationalGrid&RuralAreas...................................................................................................9

2.3 EnergyandSustainableDevelopment..................................................................................112.3.1TransitiontoCleanEnergy.....................................................................................................................11

2.3.2Technologicalsolutions...........................................................................................................................12

2.4 SDGsinMicaya..............................................................................................................................13

3 Methodology............................................................................................................................143.1 InterviewsandQuestionnaireDesign..................................................................................143.1.1QuestionnaireDesign................................................................................................................................14

3.1.3Semi-structuredInterviews...................................................................................................................15

3.1.4ExpertGroup................................................................................................................................................15

3.2 ScenarioAnalysis.........................................................................................................................153.2.1ExplorativeForecasting...........................................................................................................................16

3.3 SimulationMethod......................................................................................................................173.3.1MICMAC..........................................................................................................................................................17

3.3.2MACTOR..........................................................................................................................................................19

3.3.3VariablesIdentifiedinMicaya...............................................................................................................20

3.3.5Actor'sIdentifiedinMicaya...................................................................................................................22

4 Results.......................................................................................................................................244.1 KeyVariables................................................................................................................................244.1.1Scenario1-SmartProduction..............................................................................................................24

4.1.2Scenario2-EfficientEducation...........................................................................................................25

4.1.3Scenario3-Healthcare............................................................................................................................27

4.2 KeyObjectives..............................................................................................................................294.3 KeyActors......................................................................................................................................294.3.1PowerStructuresinMicaya...................................................................................................................29

4.4 KeyActors......................................................................................................................................294.5 CurrentStateEnergyConsumptioninMicaya...................................................................304.5.1Production.....................................................................................................................................................30

4.5.2Health...............................................................................................................................................................30

4.5.3Education.......................................................................................................................................................31

4.5.4Households....................................................................................................................................................32

5 Discussion.................................................................................................................................335.1 KeyFindings..................................................................................................................................345.2 MinorFindings.............................................................................................................................34

5.3 ScenarioBuilding-Micayain2025.......................................................................................355.3.1OptimalScenario.........................................................................................................................................35

5.3.2MostRealisticFutureScenario.............................................................................................................38

6 Conclusion................................................................................................................................416.1 FutureRecommendations........................................................................................................41

7 Acknowledgement.................................................................................................................428 References................................................................................................................................43

AppendixA–InterviewsandQuestionnaireDesign...........................................................IAppendixB–StructuralAnalysisMatrix...............................................................................XI

AppendixC–ActorsStrategyTable......................................................................................XIV

AppendixD–MatrixofActorsandObjectives................................................................XVII

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1 Introduction This section provides a brief background, introduces the problem statement and frames the research question, aim and objectives of this study.

1.1 Background In a not too distant future well over 7 billion people will populate the world, and access to energy to cover basic needs will be heavily influenced by the population in developing countries (UN, 2016). The consumption patterns and how these countries approach sustainability will unquestionably shape the comprehension of global sustainable development. Observing development trends over recent decades it is obvious that access to energy and especially electricity has had a significant role in the growth and progress in all societal sectors (Mandelli et al. 2016). It is indisputable that this development has not been equally distributed throughout the world, many countries suffer from a low rate of electrification, low per capita consumption and low quality energy supply (IEA 2013; Mandelli et al. 2016; S. Bhattacharyya 2012). Rural areas are often most affected by the lack of both energy access and quality, mostly since governments prioritize urban areas where the economic activities are significant. Generally speaking, rural areas are characterized by being sparsely populated and geographically isolated from urban settlements. Furthermore, rural areas usually have high illiteracy rates, a lack of access to quality healthcare and both a lack of clean water and energy supply, all of which contribute to the measures of standard of living (Sahn 2003; Fang & Sakellariou 2013). This is a situation only made worse by the lack of development efforts regarding electrification in rural areas over the last decade; mostly due to the immense cost associated with expanding the national grid to remote and isolated areas (Sahn 2003). Thus, an increased consideration for global access to electricity needs to be shifted to focus on rural electrification. Especially, towards technologies that do not require the national grid to supply the rural population with electricity.

Small-scale, off-grid energy systems are one, perhaps the most, appropriate solution to address the lack of rural electrification globally. Both as an initial first step to increase the electrification, but also — thanks to its flexibility and ability to respond to change — as a springboard to develop small local grids. These have the potential not only to supply household needs, but also minor production and improve societal functions such as healthcare and education (Welsch et al. 2013; Mandelli et al. 2016). When targeting an increased rural electrification, the major challenge is according to (Kobayakawa & Kandpal 2015)) to estimate future demand, thus, these features of a decentralized small-scale system can be hugely beneficial in rural settings. A significant advantage of renewable technologies, especially solar power, is that the systems are easily scalable. Thus, systems can be sized to meet the demand of a single household to a middle-sized community, and with ease further increase in size should the demand change (Bhattacharyya & Palit 2014). Decentralized power generation can be provided through a number of technologies such as diesel generators, photovoltaic (PV) solar systems, micro-hydraulic systems or even biomass combustion. However, due to the global challenge of climate change it is an absolute necessity that electrification of rural communities are based on clean energy. Off-grid systems based on renewable technologies are therefore close to a requirement for rural electrification (Pepermans et al. 2005). Renewable energy solutions do not only possess the ability to electrify isolated areas but also facilitate a smoother transition from electricity generated by traditional fossil fuels, to clean energy sources (Bhattacharyya & Palit 2014).

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It can be concluded that increased energy access in developing countries, and foremost in rural areas without grid connection, can improve education, health or environmental conditions (Ulsrud et al. 2011). The greatest effects on well-being are experienced at the lowest per capita energy consumption rates, which are often to be found in rural communities. Ulsrud et al. (2011) highlights the fact that the positive contribution of electricity to the Human Development Index (HDI) is strongest for first kilowatt hour, reflecting that the poorest are likely to benefit from even minimum electricity inputs to meet their basic needs. The specific benefits of electricity are commonly understood to include: an overall increase in the standard of living, improved education through e.g. lighting, or decreased time spent on domestic tasks such as fuel collection (wood for cooking etc.). It can not, however, be concluded that increased access to modern energy such as electricity automatically improves local production activity or economic growth (World Bank 2008). Nevertheless, electricity is an invaluable input for productive and economic activities, as well as for health, education and overall well-being in all communities, urban and rural (IEA 2013).

Technological breakthroughs in the renewable sector have changed the conception of energy for people all over the world. People are moving from distant and passive receivers of energy, often unsustainably generated, to actively controlling their energy demand including generation on site (Mandelli et al. 2016). Rural communities have the potential to be at the heart of this transition, providing the joined-up thinking required to deliver decentralized energy at a community level. Rapid falls in the costs of solar panels and battery storage, combined with the roll out of smart meters and the continued development of demand side response (DSR) technologies provide the basis of a very different way of producing and consuming energy in the future (Ceseña et al. 2015). Promoting decentralized energy use at a municipal level, either by individuals or on behalf of the community, offers the prospect of lower energy bills for households as well as local businesses. Therefore, the rural development strategy should incorporate the socio-economic and environmental aspects.

Nevertheless, before implementing new technology it is advisable to determine its feasibility. Therefore, this research work aims to provide necessary information required to assess feasibility of a transition to a smart and resilient community.

1.2 Field Study Area - Micaya, Bolivia The village Micaya was founded on October 18, 1984 and is located in the municipality of Colquencha, approximately 56 km, or 2 hours south of the administrative capital in Bolivia, La Paz. Micaya is located in an area in Bolivia called the Altiplano, approximately 4020 meters above sea level. It is also the most extensive area of high altitude plateau on Earth outside Tibet (Gobierno Autónomo Municipal de Colquencha y sus 5 Cantones 2010). Micaya is dependent of the water supply from the glaciers in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia’s largest mountain chain. However, the total volume of the glaciers has decreased by 40% between 1975 and 2006 (Franquist et al. 2013). That has left the Altiplano region short of water, thus affecting the productivity in the area negatively. In combination with low job opportunities, this has led to high migration among the population. Key characteristics of Micaya are listed below in Table 1 (Gobierno Autónomo Municipal de Colquencha y sus 5 Cantones 2010).

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Table 1. Key characteristics of Micaya.

Case Study Area Micaya - Key Facts

Geographical Location 16°93’N Latitude, 68°22’W Longitude

Altitude 4020 meters above sea level

Population 385

Main occupation Agriculture, pottery, cattle

Main crops Potato, barley, quinoa

Temperature -3,5°C to 22,3°C (Average: 9,3°C)

Average rainfall 609 mm/year

1.3 Research Scope This section provides an overview of the research scope that this study aims to fulfill as well as the purpose, objectives, research question and the delimitations of the survey.

The study is divided into two different parts. Firstly, the study investigates the current socio-economic state in Micaya, by evaluating the current energy situation and consumption patterns. The current state will lay the foundation for analysis that aims to evaluate how social aspects affect the three areas of interest, health, education and production. These aspects in combination with environmental consequences related to the use of unsustainable energy will form the first part of the analysis. Secondly, consumption preferences and the impact of alternative energy sources will be investigated together with an established group of experts to create likely future scenarios in Micaya. A correlational observation between various parameters in terms of socio-economy and socio-technical solutions will be discussed and evaluated to define a feasible pathway to a sustainable and resilient society.

1.3.1 Purpose The purpose of this study is to identify key variables and investigate how these variables will impact the future state in Micaya within the sectors: health, education and production.

1.3.2 AimThe aim of this study is that the conclusions made will be used as a foundation for further research in Micaya, to create public policies and inform decision-makers on the complicated energy state in rural Bolivia. Furthermore, this study aims to examine whether a switch to clean and affordable energy in Micaya will help the village improve different societal variables. The study also aims to provide a baseline of the current energy consumption in Micaya and, to point out possible technological solutions able to meet future demand of both individual households as well as societal institutions.

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1.3.3 ObjectivesThe baseline energy profile is based on compiled historical data. This data will be complemented with data collected from an expert group consisting of academics and professionals in the energy sector. The study will fulfill the following objectives:

i. Define a baseline energy profile in Micaya based on historical data and interviews.ii. Understand the impact of different social variables on energy consumption patterns

and technological preferences of households, in order to move the energy supply torenewable technology.

iii. Create at least two future scenarios, identify the most feasible pathway to it, and alsodefine the variables which will be most influential to future energy demand. This willbe accomplished through interviews in Micaya, as well as with an established expertgroup.

1.3.4 Research QuestionTo fulfill the purpose and aim of the study the following main research question will be answered:


To fulfill the objectives and completely understand the main research question of the study the following minor research questions will be investigated and answered throughout the study:

i. “What is the current energy situation in Micaya?”ii. “What parameter has the most significant impact on what is considered a sustainable

future?”iii. “What will the future energy demand be with regards to chosen key variables in the

social sectors education, healthcare and production in Micaya?”

1.3.5 DelimitationsThe study will only consider the following three areas: education, health and production. Other areas will also impact the future state of Micaya, but these have been excluded due to the limited timeframe of the study. Furthermore, this study only considers the impact from these parameters on energy consumption and energy dependence.

The case study village, Micaya, already has access to limited grid electricity, thus this study will not focus on communities that has no access to energy at all. Rather it will focus on how to make the energy supply more reliable and resilient to improve the living standard in the area.

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1.3.6 Structure of the Thesis The first chapter provides a background to the study and to the general problems caused by a lack of energy. Moreover, the first chapter also defines the research scope, set the aim and objective as well as presenting the purpose of the study. Chapter two presents the theoretical concept, in which the study operates. The third chapter describes the methodology applied to answer the research questions, collect the data in the field and how to build and compare future scenarios in Micaya. Results obtained from field study are presented in chapter four along with the different scenarios developed as simulated in MICMAC. Chapter five includes the discussion the plausible pathway approaches to reach a desired future state. In chapter six, conclusions are drawn by observing the findings of the survey along with appropriate recommendations going forward. Finally, Chapter 7 provides the acknowledgments followed by references in chapter 8. Figure 1 shows the interconnections between the different parts of the study and highlight how the study contribute to the overall research domain.

Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the structure of the thesis and the interconnections between the different parts of the study and how these contribute to the research domain.

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2 Theoretical Framework The theoretical framework aims to provide a better understanding of energy consumption and energy dependency in rural areas of Bolivia, as well as its connection to global climate change. Clean, efficient, and reliable energy services are not only desirable, but an absolute necessity, for the social welfare in rural communities like Micaya. This chapter discusses the relation between energy, sustainable development and a pathway to a clean energy future. Challenges of implementing new technology in rural Bolivia are also reviewed within the theoretical framework.

2.1 Climate Change For decades human activity has increasingly affected the earth and its unique climate, and its importance for life on this planet (IPCC, 2007). Humans’ negative behavior is largely sparked by technological advancements and the ignorance of the effects caused by immensely increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. Because of this, planet earth has entered a new era, the Anthropocene. That marks the time in history where human activities are proved the dominant driver of change in vital earth systems (Steffen et al., 2006). Environmental depletion and the exponential temperature rise will have further impacts on all life as well as putting further pressure on the earth system; further changes will trigger abrupt or irreversible environmental changes that would be catastrophic for human well-being (Rockström et al., 2009) This is a dilemma because, still, the dominant drivers for social and economic development remains ignorant to the risk of human caused environmental disasters (Stern, 2007)

Even though, environmental fluctuations are not an unusual phenomenon; over the past thousands of years the amount of environmental fluctuations has been far from few, including: flooding, changed rainfall patterns and temperature variations (Alley et al., 1997). In this period however, the environmental systems has remained stable over time, an era referred to as the Holocene (Rockström et al., 2009). The first human interaction in the environmental systems can be defined as regional, with altered fire regimes, bisecting of natural areas and so forth. There is no evidence that human activity has affected the variations of different environmental functions until very recently (Alley et al., 1997; Steffen et al., 2006). Since late nineteenth century and the industrial revolution, human activities, mostly related to the burning of fossil fuels, have been pushing the earth system outside its safe operating boundaries of the Holocene (Rockström et al., 2009; Berger & Loutre, 2002).

It exists no significant indication that the current trend on human caused climate change is decreasing any time soon; 2016 shaped up as the hottest year since records began in 1880, continuing the three-year streak on all-time warm years, while the Arctic also experienced record low ice levels (NOAA, 2016). As a result of the growing impacts of climate change, millions of people experiencing higher temperatures and extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, putting food and water security at risk, and threatening agricultural supply chains and many coastal cities.

The impacts and risks posed by climate change highlight the need for action to deliver on the Paris Agreement on climate change, reached in December 2015, to keep a global temperature rise in the 21st century below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And with the world’s poorest people hit hardest by climate change, the case for action has been underscored by the Sustainable Development Goals, developed by the UN in 2015 (UN, 2015).

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2.1.1 Climate Change in Bolivia Bolivia is one of the world’s smallest emitters of GHG, accountable only for 0.057% of global carbon emissions (Global Carbon Atlas, 2015). Yet the effects of climate change have already been evident in the country for several years. There are both social as well as environmental impacts of climate change all over the country from the Altiplano highlands in the Andes to the lowlands and the Amazonian jungle (Seiler et al., 2013). The main impacts of climate change in Bolivia are, however, most significant in the Altiplano region and include: food insecurity; glacial retreat and water availability (Parry et al., 2004; Franquist et al., 2013).

In the Cordillera Real, Bolivia’s largest mountain chain, the total volume of the glaciers decreased by 40% between 1975 to 2006 (Franquist et al., 2013). This have had a severe impact on the water supply, not just to household use, but also affected the amount of energy produced by hydropower plants. Worse, the Cordillera Real is not the only glacier to be affected. The Tuni Condoriri glacier, that provides Bolivia’s administrative capital La Paz and the neighboring city of El Alto (accounting for more than 2.5 million people together) with water, is expected to decrease significantly by 2025 and possibly fully disappear by 2045 (Francou et al., 2003). In the long-term effects in these areas will be devastating; lack of water will affect the energy supply, but especially the food security in all of Bolivia. Fluctuating temperatures, increasing irregularity of seasons and overall unpredictability of weather have further implications for food production (Parry et al., 2004). Whilst temperature changes vary according to region, small producers and subsistence farmers in the Altiplano and Amazon region are worst affected. In 2010 sudden drops in temperature and drought resulted in the death of livestock and reduction of crops that affected 21,000 families in the Amazon (Parry et al., 2004). In 2011 climatic instability caused Bolivian quinoa yields to drop 50% compared to the previous year.

The livelihood insecurity is also likely to affect migration patterns from rural communities. Migration has always been a way of sourcing alternative incomes in the Andes where agricultural cycles are dictated by dry and rainy seasons. It is hard to identify climate change as the single cause of migration. However, the effect of environmental instability on livelihoods is likely to be a strong factor. In Norte Potosí — even though the problem is noticeable in all of Bolivia — a region in which 71% of the land is affected by desertification, recent research indicates that migration is becoming more widespread (Franquist et al., 2013).

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A summary of the expected future impact from climate change in different regions in Bolivia is stated in Table 2 below. This study will focus on the Altiplano region.

Table 2. Expected impact of climate change in the different regions of Bolivia (WWF, 2015)

Region Change scenario Anticipated impacts

Altiplano

Increased frequency of storms with fewer days of rain, increased frequency of hail, lower river flow

Increasing appearance of frost, increasing need of water for irrigation due to longer dry season, problems with hydropower generation, glacier retreat, crop failure, flooding in the rainy season, decreased availability of water for human and animal consumption, lower aquifer recharge, increased competition for water use

Andean Valleys

Increased precipitation, increased frequency of storms with fewer days of rain, increased frequency of hail

Increased competition for water use, biodiversity loss, increasing need of water for irrigation due to longer dry season, increased risk of mudslides, problems with power generation, soil erosion and desertification

Chaco

Longer dry season during the growing season, intense and recurrent droughts, low river flow

Increased competition for water use, biodiversity loss, increased events of heat waves during the summer, soil erosion and desertification, increased pollution of water sources

Amazon

An increase in the amount of rainfall by event, increased cloudiness rate, high atmospheric humidity in summer and severe droughts and winter

Frequent flooding, infrastructure damage and loss, winter crop failure and livestock loss due to lack of water, increased presence of pests and diseases due to high humidity, biodiversity loss, outbreaks of infectious diseases related to water.

2.2 Energy in The Developing World Many of the world’s problems today can be derived from energy. From conflicts over resource supplies and greenhouse-gas emissions, to inefficient productivity and output stemming from shortages and blackouts. In many of the poorest regions of the world, the lack of energy stifles economic and human development. Globally, over 1.3 billion people have no access to electricity; and approximately 2.6 billion have no access to modern cooking facilities (Kaygusuz, 2012). In Latin America and the Caribbean, over 31 million people — 7% of the regional population — live without grid-connected electricity (The World Bank, 2013). Demand for energy is growing exponentially in developing countries due to rapid population growth and likewise rapid economic expansion. This is projected to lead to a near doubling in primary energy use, much of it unsustainable, by developing countries in the next two decades. As a result of this growth, developing countries will account for 50% of primary energy use and 52% of energy-related CO2 emissions by the year 2030 (UN 2015).

The World Bank (2013) states that the lack of adequate distribution channels plays a significant role in energy shortage worldwide. In rural areas, energy distributors often find it difficult to reach their users, who are often geographically dispersed. Typically, potential rural users are located in areas that have no paved access routes, and where energy transmission

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lines are unavailable. To distribute energy from the point of origin to rural destinations is thus very costly and logistically difficult.

A new approach to energy distribution is required, one that can eliminate waste, reduce pollution, and increase access to energy around the world. This requires focusing on efficiency-boosting technologies, such as improved machine-to-machine communication, smart metering, and better production management (Chu & Majumdar, 2012). Unfortunately, the number of research projects within these areas has been insufficient. Especially, research on smart metering and smart grids could make a difference to future energy security. Renewable energy sources are well positioned to contribute to energy needs in both developed and developing countries. However, because weather is unstable, energy from these sources may be uncertain and intermittent. This will continue to be a problem unless, or rather until, we are able to store energy more efficiently.

2.2.1 Energy in Bolivia Energy resources, particularly fossil energy such as: oil, natural gas and hydropower, are abundant in South America (Aravena, 2008); Venezuela sits second to none with the largest proven oil reserves, and Brazil, Mexico and Ecuador all make the top 20 (World Atlas, 2017). However, experts remain cautious that there will be difficult for South America to increase current production of fossil fuels (Aravena, 2008). The main constraints to an increased production are infrastructure and the domestic political landscape. Even though establishing new infrastructure to increase distribution provides an immense business opportunity, and energy supply have for long been equal to economic and social development in South America. While many countries have energy reserves for domestic use, only Ecuador, Bolivia and Venezuela export energy resources, mainly natural gas and oil, in any significant amount (Central Intelligence Agency, 2017).

Bolivia currently sits at the top as the country in South America with the largest natural gas reserves second only to Venezuela. Bolivia also has the most significant source of natural gas in relation to its internal consumption in South America (Gazprom, 2016). Bolivia produces 21.4 billion m3 of natural gas annually, only 18.2 percent of the total production is consumed in Bolivia, the remaining 81.8 percent is being exported mainly to Argentina and Brazil (Central Intelligence Agency, 2017). In 1988, the governments of Bolivia and Brazil signed an Energy Integration Treaty in which Brazil committed to buy natural gas from Bolivia. The gas is used generate both heating and electricity at a thermal plant the Bolivian Government proposed to construct at the border between the two countries. The agreement laid the groundwork for the proposal to construct a pipeline to transport natural gas produced in central Bolivia to major industrial centers in Brazil (Hindery, 2013).

2.2.2 Bolivia’s National Grid & Rural Areas According to Finucane et al. (2012) only 73% of Bolivia’s rural population had access to electricity, while 99% of the urban population has access to electricity. In total that makes up to approximately 25% of the population in Bolivia live without access to electricity and most of them live in rural areas (Buch & Filho, 2012). The inequalities between the urban and rural population is further polarized by Bolivia’s weak institutional structure, which do not enable for efficient distribution nor equal of the country's natural resources.

Bolivia is according to numbers an energy self-sufficient country, even if the country is obliged to import certain quantities of industrialized fuels to supply the domestic industrial market. Despite the fact that Bolivia is capable to meet domestic demand, the electrification coverage in the rural area is still low (Finucane et al., 2012). This is true for different reasons:

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but the main obstacle for the expansion of the national grid to rural areas is the geographical nature of Bolivia. It is expensive to connect rural mountain areas to the national grid due to the difficult terrain and geographical isolation of many communities. Not helped by the fact that rural electrification using conventional methods such as grid extension is becoming increasingly expensive to implement. Rural communities must consider alternative decentralized sources to generate electricity to meet future energy demand. Figure 4 illustrates the national grid connection in Bolivia (Fernández Fuentes, 2010).

Figure 2. Spread of national grid in Bolivia.

The lack of a nationwide coverage negatively affects the development of rural areas by preventing economic, social and environmental development. Thus, by not having access to electrical energy these communities are deprived of the ability to promote sustainable development.

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2.3 Energy and Sustainable Development Energy have throughout history been essential in terms of development, however, for “development” to continue or rather to be sustainable, energy need to be secure, environmentally friendly, and also used efficiently (UN, 2002). In almost every country today the energy system is a cornerstone of modern life. It enables countless services with the potential to improve social, economic and environmental conditions in both developed and developing countries. Yet the current system of energy supply and energy use is highly unsustainable, and in the absence of major new government policies will become even less so in the foreseeable future (S.C. Bhattacharyya, 2012). It is insecure and unreliable, because of the significant dependence on oil. Extracted from limited reserves more often than not concentrated in politically volatile regions. It is environmentally harmful, because of growing contribution to (anthropogenic) global warming. Thus, the challenges involved in ensuring energy for sustainable development are many. Improving the economic, social and environmental conditions of the people of today — but most importantly tomorrow —demands greater levels of energy services (S.C. Bhattacharyya, 2012). This will require fundamental changes in technologies, infrastructure and not least people's behavior.

It could be argued that energy contributes to a virtuous cycle of human, economic and social improvements that are essential to sustainable development in developing countries. Sufficient supplies of clean energy are the basis for raising standards of living, improving the quality of everyday life and enhancing the business and natural environment. Modern energy services enhance the life of the poor in countless ways; electric light extends the day, providing additional hours for reading and work. Modern cook stoves spare households from noxious fumes from the daily cooking. Refrigeration extends food freshness and decrease wastage. Clinics with electricity can sterilize instruments and safely store medicines through refrigeration. Manufacturing and service enterprises with modern energy can be more productive and can extend the quality and range of their products, leading to new jobs and higher wages. Energy alone may not alleviate poverty – clean water, adequate sanitation, health and education services and communication networks among other things are also needed – but it is indispensable to sustainable development all around the world.

2.3.1 Transition to Clean EnergyWithout a significant implementation of renewable energy sources it is predicted that the global energy mix will remain fairly stable and dominated by fossil fuels until 2030. Much due to the size and inertia of the current energy system has made it inflexible and unable to change quickly (Chu & Majumdar, 2012). In this scenario, fossil fuels will remain the largest source providing the world with energy covering about 80% of global demand in 2004 and an expected 81% in 2030. Concerns about continued high consumption of fossil fuels does not only leave emissions of GHG dangerously high but also raise questions of supply security and long-term energy solutions (UN, 2015).

The transition to sustainable energy systems is not only a necessity to provide a solution to cope with climate change, it is critical to improve the livelihood for a rapidly increasing population. The population growth will pose the most fundamental problem to the increased energy demand. In just 100 years the world's population is estimated to increase by almost a factor 3, to a total population of approximately 10 billion people (Roser & Ortiz-Ospina, 2017). Developing countries will experience the most rapid population increase and therefore perhaps the largest global opportunity for implementation of renewable energy. Despite tremendous progress, barriers still exist to promoting sustainable energy solutions, especially given the need for a dramatic change in the pace and scale of how this issue is addressed

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(Gerger & Gullberg, 1997). Action is needed in several areas such as technology development, policy and regulatory innovation and governance structures.

In 2030, the population of Bolivia will reach 13.4 million, an increase of 30.7% from 2012, out of these about 25% will live in rural areas (Gale, 2012). However, as Fernández Fuentes (2010) points out a large portion of these households are connected to the national grid, unfortunately the grid relies on fossil fuels. Thus, both urban, but especially, rural areas in Bolivia posses a great potential for integration of renewable energy sources into the existing infrastructure. Renewables can both be used to power individual households and large-scale communities and industries. An integrated energy system consisting of the national grid with support from renewable energy sources provides an energy system adaptable and resilient to fluctuations in demand.

2.3.2 Technological solutions Implementation of renewable energy into a rural community can be accomplished in a lot of different ways, but always require technological solutions. The implementation would also require educating the community in the use and management of these new systems. The most common systems include solar home systems (SHS), solar pumps, mini grids solutions and large solar parks to name a few.

Solar Home Systems A SHS is a stand-alone PV system that offers a cost-effective alternative to provide a high quality power supply to individual remote off-grid household for lighting and communication appliances. In rural areas, not connected to the grid, SHS have been used with great success to meet a household's energy demand and help to fulfill basic electric needs (Wamukonya, 2007). Globally, SHS provide a basic energy supply to numerous households in remote locations where electrification by the grid is not feasible due to high costs of grid extensions. Apart from just providing remote areas with energy, PV systems also facilitate sustainable development and thus contributing to climate protection.

Mini Grids A mini grid, can also be referred to as an isolated grid, and is defined as a system of small-scale (usually 10 kW to 10MW) electricity generators and, possibly, storage units interconnected to a distribution network that supplies electricity to a limited number of consumers (Kobayakawa & Kandpal, 2015). Thus a mini grid is a distribution grid that operates in isolation from national energy supply infrastructure. The energy supply architecture of a mini grid can be contrasted to a single consumer system such as in the case of a SHS, however for the case of this study mini grid will consider systems that serves more than a single household. A mini grid has been introduced as a support system in cases where the national grid provides an unstable energy supply. A integrated system of this kind evens out the energy supply a make the energy supply more adaptable and resilient (Bhattacharyya & Palit, 2014).

Mini grids are a great solution for remote areas as they can operate autonomously without being connected to the national grid. However, the mini grid, just as a national grid, must be maintained, this could be a problem in communities without the technical knowhow. Implementation of mini-grids have proved to have a positive social impact by improving the local governance structure through the involvement of the community in the decision making process linked with the energy system.

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Solar Parks A solar park (SP), is a large-scale PV system usually designed to supply energy directly into the existing grid infrastructure. SPs designed differently from most conventional building-mounted PV systems and other decentralized energy applications because they are able to supply energy at industrial level, rather than just to an individual user.

The solar power source is via photovoltaic modules that convert light directly to electricity. However, this differs from, and should not be confused with concentrated solar power, the other large-scale solar generation technology, which uses heat to drive a variety of conventional generator systems. Both approaches have their own advantages and disadvantages, but to date, for a variety of reasons, photovoltaic technology has seen much wider use in the field. As of 2013, PV systems outnumber concentrators by about 40 to 1.

Batteries One of the major constraints to renewable energy sources is the lack of adequate storage solutions. Though, one of the most promising solutions is lithium batteries. These batteries are characterized by high efficiency and long life. These unique properties have made lithium batteries the most popular technology for future energy storage in renewable energy plants, as well as power systems for sustainable development. However, to scale technology for these purposes is still quite problematic since issues such as safety and costs are still to be resolved for the technology to be feasible with in these fields..

2.4 SDGs in Micaya Energy, and especially electricity, is the golden thread that impacts most of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and beyond that, the development of every nation and economy. The United Nations has recognized Energy as a cornerstone for economic development, facilitating poverty and hunger reduction efforts, improving education, women’s empowerment and healthcare. The SDGs, known as the Global Goals, are a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity (UN 2015). Also, the SDGs provide us with a common plan and agenda to tackle some of the pressing challenges facing our world. This thesis will be aligned with the following goals:

I. 7. Affordable and Clean Energy II. 9. Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

III. 11. Sustainable Cities and Communities IV. 12. Responsible Consumption and Production

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3 Methodology The methodology consists of a literature study and a field study including interviews and historical data collection. The main advantage of the field study is that it allows for quick gathering of knowledge on a subject that is previously scarcely researched (Sala et al. 2015). Specifically, a field study allows exploration of stakeholder involvement, and in the case of Micaya, dynamics related to energy services in the rural regions in developing countries. Interviewing stakeholders and experts also allow for evaluation of the various alternatives for energy access in cases where available literature is inadequate.

For conducting the energy assessment the participatory rural appraisal method (PRA) is used. The PRA is an effective approach when the study wants to draw on experiences and knowledge within a rural community; especially, this approach is used to highlight environmental concern and community development (Chambers 1994). The qualitative PRA research framework is applied by developing various important aspects of the study, such as prepare questionnaire and conduct field survey (Mack et. al., 2005). A qualitative method is used because it is the best way for seeking answers to research questions simultaneously as finding evidence; consequently it provides a deeper understanding of the research problem. This practice is also efficient in research aiming to identify social norms and socio-economic factors important to a study population. The PRA framework is descriptive since it answer questions such as; what, when, where, how etc. and identifies relationships between different aspects (Mack et. al., 2005).

3.1 Interviews and Questionnaire Design To obtain the primary data necessary to evaluate the current state — but also to build accurate scenarios for the future — data will be gathered by conducting semi-structured interviews with established experts. Moreover, primary data will also be gathered through questionnaire-based interviews with local stakeholders in Micaya.

3.1.1 Questionnaire Design The aim of the questionnaire is to quantify and analyze data statistically in order to accurately weight identified variables. According to Crawford (1997) the most appropriate way to design a questionnaire is to design a formal standardized questionnaire. Therefore the questionnaire design process was conducted accordingly (Crawford 1997):

i. Designed to meet the research objectives. ii. Consist of complete and accurate information to ensure the respondents fully

understand the questions. iii. Questions are formed to ensure sound analysis and accurate interpretation of the

answers. iv. Keep the questionnaire to ensure the interviewee stay interested.

Full questionnaire design is presented in Appendix A.

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3.1.3 Semi-structured Interviews Semi-structured interviews allow for exploration of the interviewee's expertise in a way that structured questions can not (Brinkmann, 2014). Semi-structured interview questions will start with relevant topics and the relationship between them. This will serve as the foundation for the interview, with more specific questions emerging during the interview (Case, 1990). For the purpose of this study the semi-structured interview method is used because it have the potential to not only give answers but also, confirm what has been observed (Case, 1990). The template for expert group interview can be found in Appendix A.

3.1.4 Expert GroupIn this study the expert group consists of three individuals, all with unique knowledge and experience within their respective field. Interviews with the expert group will lay the foundation for the scenario analysis as well as contribute to the variables identification process. The expert group will also aid in the actors identification process and give their opinion on the relationship between the various actors identified. The expert group consists of:

Saúl Cabrera - Holds a PhD Material Sciences from University of Valencia, currently working as a professor and senior researcher at the Chemical Research Center at UMSA Universidad Mayor De San Andrés. Saúl is an expert within the field of rural community development in Bolivia's Altiplano region. He heads the research for various SIDA funded projects related to Sustainable Development and Rural Development and acts as coordinator for the "Smart Ayllu" program at UMSA. Saúl has previously experience from working as Director of Science and Technology office at the Education Ministry.

Johanne Hanko - Environmental engineer holding a doctoral degree in Environmental Engineering. Johanne has been working as an environmental consultant in Latin America and Africa for several years and is currently the President of the FADIPCO (Fundación de Apoyo al Desarrollo Integral de los Pueblo y Comunidades) foundation in Bolivia; a foundation mainly working to improve quality of life in rural areas through the implementation of PV-systems. Johanne is also a board member of the German Society for Solar Energy in Bolivia, the Bolivian Association for the Advancement of Science and Engineers in Action.

Reinhard Mayer - German physicist specializing in technology transfers and optimization for small and medium enterprises in the field of solar energy and rational use of conventional energy. Reinhard has been working in Bolivia since 1987, first, as a Professor at the University of San Simón in Cochabamba, Department of Physics. Then at the department of Pure Sciences and Technology where he founded the Solar Energy Development Project (PDES) specializing in research of solar energy applications in agriculture. And secondly, as a consultant in several development projects, implementing different PV-systems in both rural and urban settings. Since 1990 Reinhard has constantly published articles on the development of solar energy in Bolivia.

3.2 Scenario Analysis Exploratory research may come with uncertainties and limitations that could potentially affect the outcome negatively (Peterson et al. 2003). To overcome this, this study will conduct a scenario analysis to generate several possible future scenarios that are consistent with the current state of Micaya, but also contain several potential outcomes. Early approaches to scenario analysis defined scenarios as: “[...] hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points” (Ritchie-Calder et al. 1968). Scenario analysis can also be a mean to incorporate local values and knowledge

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into the research (Lynam et al., 2007). However, the important commonality when applying a scenario analysis is the idea that scenarios does not ensure accurate predictions or forecasts, but rather create an alternative future that challenge current assumptions and, perhaps more so, broaden perspectives (Jarke et al., 1998). Thus, in a scenario analysis a set of different parameters (variables) is combined to create several different future scenarios, each of which indicates what could possibly happen, given certain assumptions (Funtowicz et al., 1999). More and more, scenarios have served as a tool to facilitate decision-making processes in the ecological community to expand the depth of environmental analysis in sustainable development (Rotmans et al., 2000). Scenario analysis also serves to develop different ways of development and highlights the interactions between key variables within the research area (Duinker & Greig, 2006). Scenarios, however, does not only serve to illustrate plausible futures, but also to reveal the limitations of these future scenarios (Greeuw, 2000). Scenario analysis can also be a mean to incorporate local values and knowledge into the research (Lynam et al., 2007).

As stated above, scenario analysis can help to foresee or create a feasible pathway to a desired future. To achieve this there are two different approaches that is commonly used, forecasting and backcasting (Holroyd et al., 2007). Forecasting is defined as; projecting in the future what might occur and identify alternative paths for the future. Whilst Backcasting first defines clear future state and then, define goals and project different paths going backwards from the desired future.

In this study three different scenarios, within the sectors health, education and production, will be explored through (Holroyd et al., 2007) forecasting method in combination with the following methodology modified from (Schwartz, 2012)

i. Define the focus of the scenario analysis. ii. Identify and review the key variables influences on the current and future situation.

iii. Identify critical uncertainties. iv. Define the weight of each parameter. v. Create the scenarios.

vi. Assess implications for the community. vii. Propose actions and directions going.

3.2.1 Explorative Forecasting Numerous definitions of forecasting exist, i.e. “[...] a description of a possible set of events that might reasonably take place. The main purpose of developing scenarios is to stimulate thinking about possible occurrences, assumptions relating these occurrences, possible opportunities and risks, and courses of action” (Jarke et al., 1998). In short, explorative forecasting identifies historical patterns and trends to outline possible changes going into the future. Moreover, a forecasting approach may require data collection of both past and present situation in order to provide accurate predictions for the future (Holroyd et al., 2007) A typical example of forecasting is a conventional Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). In the context of environmental and sustainable development issues, forecasting is a tool to aid planning on development.

The scenarios, of this study, are developed and based on collected historical data and interviews performed in Micaya. Thereafter, a feasible pathway to a desired future scenario is extrapolated using MICMAC Demographic Software, by weighting the different variables according to questionnaire result. A schematic illustration of the study’s forecasting can be seen in figure 2.

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3.3 Simulation Method To create forecasting scenarios MICMAC Demographic Software is used to simulate how the chosen variables will affect each other in the future in Micaya. The MACTOR model is then used to determine the relationship between actors and to identify key objectives for future development.

3.3.1 MICMAC MICMAC is a structural analysis tool designed to connect different ideas and visions, describing the system as a matrix that relates all its elements (variables) together. By studying these relations, the MICMAC method enables the user, to underline the variables that are essential to the system's development and evolution (Arcade et al., 1999). The interrelations, brought forth by structural analysis, aims to bringing the system structure to light. The MICMAC analysis takes place in three stages:

1. Creating the inventory of variables 2. The description of relationships between variables 3. The identification of key variables

The first stage, also the least formal, is crucial for the entire process, it refers to the task of defining the scope of the study, and consequently the system to be analyzed (Arcade et al. 1999). With the system identified, an inventory of all variables, internal as well as external, that characterizes the system can be defined. At this stage it is preferable to be as exhaustive as possible, ensure to avoid leaving anything uninvestigated (Arcade et al., 1999). Beside meetings for brainstorming at the university, the identification of variables was further explored through interviews with established experts. Additional interviews were made with the personnel at the social institutions in Micaya. For a study of this size, the list of all the defined and agreed upon variables should not exceed 15 items (Arcade et al., 1999). Further segmentation of the variables into different categories allows the user to draw a closer distinction between internal and external variables. For didactic purposes, the variables in this study are ranked according the four subgroups: education, healthcare, production and

Figure 3. Schematic illustration of the forecasting scenario approach based on the current state in Micaya A, B & C represents different future

states with different emphasis in education, health and production.

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additional variables. Although the elements describing each variable are essential to move the analysis process forward, it is important to stress that the list of variables is definite at this stage (Holroyd et al., 2007). Furthermore, the identification of relationships between variables will also be continuously improved during the entire of the process.

During the second stage, the objective is to define the relations between the different variables. The method consists of linking up variables in a double input matrix, the structural analysis matrix (SAM). The structural matrixes used in this study can be found in Appendix B. The rows and columns in the SAM correspond to the variables defined in stage one. The relationship between the variables in the SAM is presented in a very intuitive way; a variable's direct influence is estimated by accumulating the action of one variable in a row on all other variables in the corresponding columns (Holroyd et al., 2007; Arcade et al., 1999).

The third and last stage consists of identifying key variables affecting the system's global dynamics. A variable acting only on a small number of variables exerts its direct influence on a rather limited part of the system. Likewise, a variable acting on a significant amount of variables exerts its direct influence on an extensive part of the global system dynamics. Equally, the extent of variables direct dependence on actions of other variables is obtained by considering the columns in the SAM i.e. the cumulative direct influences exerted on it by the system's other variables. Thus, by systematically adding up the elements on each row, and then on each column in the SAM, an indication on each variable’s potential dependence and influence on the system in its entirety can be estimated. The simulation in MICMAC is then based on the SAM and the relationship between the variables. The output generated by MICMAC is called a displacement map, as shown in figure 3 (Arcade et al., 1999).

Figure 4. Displacement map, output from MICMAC simulation.

In this study the most interesting variables are the Relay variables, defined as both highly influential and highly dependent. These variables are found in in the upper right quadrant of the chart in figure 3 (Arcade et al., 1999). These variables are interesting because of their instable nature. Not only are relay variables very sensitive to stress, change and actions from other variables in the system, but also, these variables are very influential and can consequently create a bullwhip effect that amplifies the initial impulse throughout the entire system.

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3.3.2 MACTORMACTOR is the method used to identify the different actors but also examining the balance of power and the relationship between the actors’ in the system. MACTOR also allows for identification of consequences of potential convergences and divergences on different issues among actors’ (Godet, 1991). This is essential in order to highlight the strategic issues and the key questions for future scenarios and understand how these different actors and their objectives will affect the system in Micaya (Arcade et al., 1999). The actors in the examined system possess various degrees of power that they will be able to use, in order to achieve their objectives. All the actors in this study are considered and examined according to the four following steps (Godet, 1994):

1. Construct the actors’ strategy table (AST).2. Identify the strategic issues and objectives associated with these issues.3. Position each actor on each strategic issue and note the convergences and divergences.4. Rank the objectives for each actor and assess possible tactics (interaction of possible

convergences and divergences) in terms of their objective priorities.

The first, construct the AST, is a square matrix (actors x actors), see Appendix C. The cells on the main diagonal are generally the most important as they define each actor’s identity (Godet, 1994). In contrast, many of the other cells (actions of one actor towards another) are close to empty. Strategic issues and objectives are identified through analyzing the AST. These issues also serve as the “battlefields” on which the actor's are likely to have opposing opinions. Each actor's stance on each of these strategic issues can be represented in the form of a matrix of possible convergences and divergences. However, the convergence and divergence between actors may vary from one issue to another (Godet, 1994). For any given actor, the question is therefore to identify and evaluate possible strategic options and then form a coherent selection of alliances (Godet, 1991). The Matrix of Actors and Objectives (MAO) represent a visual comparison of convergences and divergences. In order to determine which of the objectives that potentially could create differences between two actors’, an actor in favor of certain objectives is indicated by +1 and an actor opposed certain objective is indicated by -1. The matrix calculation MAO x MOA thus gives two matrices, see Appendix D (Godet, 1994):

• Matrix of convergence (CAA) is obtained by the matrix product which retains onlypositive scalar products. This is also the number of objectives towards which actors iand j have a convergent attitude, either favorable or unfavorable (number ofconvergences).

• Matrix of divergence (DAA) is obtained by the matrix product which retains onlynegative scalar products. This is also number of objectives towards which actors i andj have a divergent attitude (number of divergences).

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3.3.3 Variables Identified in MicayaThe structured forecasting analysis of this study depends on several variables, crucial to the outcome of the simulation. The main target of the analysis is to identify the variables that have the greatest influence on the system and predict their future behavior in relation to each other. These variables will build scenarios and help find a pathway to reach a desirable future situation in Micaya. The variables listed below were identified and the reinforced together with the established experts.

Variables Definition

Education

V1. Numbers of students and teachers at the school - The cumulative amount of people using the school facilities on a daily basis. This study considers the number of students and the number teachers at the school. It also considers the activities performed at the school, which is seeking to improve (through education and training) knowledge, skills and behavior of both students and teachers. The teacher lives at the school.

V2. Use of technological equipment in education - The extent to which technological aid is used in the education, such as: computers, printers, lighting for extended teaching hours etc.

V3. High-level education - Facilitate education at a higher level in Micaya so that students can receive their entire education in the village instead of travel to another location for education after the age of twelve.

Health

V4. Number of nurses and doctors at the health center - The cumulative amount of people using the health centers facilities on a daily basis. Related to the increased number of people active at the health center to increase the operating hours to cover weekends as well. This study considers the number of patients as well as the number of nurses and doctors active at the health center to cover the demand from the community. It also considers the activities performed at the health center, seeking to improve, through education and training, the knowledge and skills of nurses and doctors.

V5. Use of technological equipment in healthcare - The extent to which technological aid is used at the health center to improve the medical services in Micaya, such as: computers, refrigerators, analytics and diagnostics appliances and other modern medical appliances.

V6. Spreading of diseases - Spread of epidemic diseases causing infections as well as affecting the daily life in the Altiplano region. Apart from infections caused and spread by humans in the population, the spreading of diseases are also related to the disease's origin from cattle and other animals.

Production

V7. Use of technological equipment in production - The extent to which technological equipment is used in the production processes to improve the productivity in a sustainable way in Micaya, such as: Solar pumps, watering systems, heated barns, efficient ceramics production and other modern production appliances.

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V8. Efficient food production - Related both to being a self-sufficient producer to cover the food demand in the community, as well as producing excess food that could be sold at markets in neighbouring cities, El Alto and La Paz.

V9. Smart land use - Related to efficient land use in agriculture and cattle. Separate croplands from pasture lands to improve the quality of the soil for better productivity.

V10. Increased ceramics production - Affected by the building of a new ceramics factory in the village of Micaya. It will not only increase the productivity in the ceramics production but also increased the number of people active in the ceramics factory. The products from the factory intend to be sold at markets in neighboring cities, El Alto and La Paz.

Additional Variables

V11. Climate change - Related to the global trend of global warming that has altered the rain seasons in Altiplano region as well as led to the dramatic decrease in glacier size in the Andes. The aspect of climate change is considered at a regional level with regards to changes in temperature, rainfall etc.

V12. Access to water - Related to the lack of sufficient water resources to meet the demands of water consumption in the Altiplano region. Access to water also refers to the quality of the water delivered to Micaya, standards used to assess water quality are related to the well-being of ecosystems and the quality of the drinking water. All of the above variables and access to water will be key to the future development of not only Micaya but to all of Bolivia.

V13. Access to energy - Related to the lack of a sufficient energy supply to meet the demands of energy consumption in the Altiplano region. Access to energy also refers to the quality of the energy delivered to Micaya, standards used to assess energy quality are related to the well-being of the population in Micaya as well as the social services presented to them. Access to energy will be key to the future development of not only Micaya but to all of Bolivia.

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3.3.5 Actor's Identified in Micaya Likewise, it is necessary to identify the actors involved in the transition to an integrated energy system and that are decisive for decision-making process. These actors are in the same way crucial to the outcome of the simulation to identify the actors that have the greatest influence on the system. The actors listed below were identified and defined together with the established experts.

Actors Definition Main Actors (Internal)

Social Actors

Individual Social Actors - Refers to the all individuals in Micaya, actors within this group identifies problems within the community and reports these issues to the collective social actors. This group also includes personnel at the school and the health center (these people does not necessarily live in Micaya), who may identify specific issues in their respective area. For example the teachers might observe that the lightning in the classrooms are broken and thus report this to the school association. Likewise, the personnel at the health center might observe the need for new technological aid in order to improve healthcare. Sub-categories within the individual social actors:

I. The residents of Micaya II. Health center personnel

III. Teachers

Collective Social Actors - Refers to the social groups in Micaya that affects the decision-making in the village. These groups include: the teachers’ association, the producers’ association and the neighborhood association. These are the most influential actors in Micaya towards the municipality, and therefore the most important social actors in Micaya. Because of their influence in Colquencha these actors serve as the carrier of information from the community to the municipality. Below follows a more detailed description of each association. Neighbourhood association - Consists of influential individuals within the community, who acts as informal leaders, not connected to any specific sector. Individuals in this group usually also belong to the traditional authorities, why the neighborhood association base their decisions on traditional knowledge. They handle most issues in Micaya, e.g. road construction and repairs, flooding which affects harvest or if there is a significant shortage of water in Micaya. Producers’ association - Consists of people working with the day-to-day operations regarding production in Micaya. In contrast to the neighborhood association this group deals with minor issues that does not require resources from the municipality in Colquencha e.g. when and where to start harvesting the crops or how to store and sell the ceramic products.

School association - Consists of a group of parents to the students in the school. This group carries information regarding issues in the educational system in Micaya to the municipality in Colquencha. Hence, the school association is the actor who communicates the lack of teachers in the school or highlights the need for new technological aid to the municipality asking for financial support.

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Traditional Authorities - Refers to the traditional systems in place in Micaya i.e. the traditional authorities decide when to harvest the crops and when to plant new ones. These are decisions based on observations of the weather etc. The traditional authorities also have a juridical system in place to determine whether people act against the traditional law, if that is the case an adequate punishment is issued.

Municipality (Colquencha) - The municipality in Colquencha is the most influential actor regarding decision-making in Micaya. The mayor is responsible for the education and the healthcare, especially its funding. Thus the mayor in Colquencha decides which projects to support and what should be the focus of development going forward.

Additional Actors (External)

Government - Considers the entire governmental function of Bolivia including the ministries of education, health, rural development, land use, energy etc. They act to provide Bolivia with the best possible alternative for each sector such as high quality healthcare and a high quality school system. They formulate and evaluate the policies, rules and plans for each sector, with the purpose of guaranteeing both efficiency and security. The vision of the Education Ministry states "The Ministry of Education guarantees a productive community education and quality for all, with socio-cultural relevance, contributing to the construction of a fair society, in balanced relationship with the nature that sustains development to human well-being, through the strengthening of educational management", similar visions exist for each ministry in the government. In this study the most important departments are Educational, Healthcare and Energy, and thus, the most important actors within the government will be the ministers of these departments:

I. Minister of Education II. Minister of Public Health

III. Minister of Energy

Governations - Refers to that Bolivia is divided into nine departments/governations; Chuquisaca, Cochabamba, Beni, La Paz, Oruro, Pando, Potosi, Santa Cruz, Tarija. These governations are managed by elected governors and by independently elected Departmental Legislative Assemblies. These governations, however, have limited power in local communities such as Micaya. They do represent the second option from which the municipalities could turn for funding of new projects.

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4 Results This section will provide the results of the field study, including the key variables as defined by simulation using MICMAC and the relationship between the actors according to the MACTOR analysis. The current energy consumption and energy dependency in the Altiplano community Micaya is also presented.

4.1 Key Variables The MICMAC simulations are based on the 13 different variables defined in previous chapters, to alter the outcome of the simulations different weight have been put to the variables in accordance with the responses during interviews with the established experts. This approach ensured the possibility to create several different outcomes. The simulation in MICMAC emphasizes on the relationship between the variables, the different possible scenarios are then discussed in chapter 5. The input data the scenarios below are based on the SAM found in Appendix B. The variables of most interest are the relay variables found in upper right quadrant of the displacement map, these are the variables that are both very influential but also highly dependent of the behavior of other variables. Thus these variables are the most important ones to monitor and develop in order to move each scenario forward.

4.1.1 Scenario 1 - Smart Production This scenario puts emphasis on the importance of a developed and secure production system. Experts agree that one of the most important aspects in this scenario is to have a production system able to adapt to changes. Consequently, the production system needs to be resilient and relationship between variables established. The scenario was developed during the phase of the expert interviews when the interviewee was asked to explore a possible future state for the production system in Micaya. Questions like “What infrastructure needs to be in place in order to meet future demand?” and “How will technology improve future production efficiency?” were discussed to provide a good basis for the development of the scenario. The relationship between the variables was discussed with the desire to develop a self-supplying production system. The relationship between the variables are described by SAM focusing on production in Appendix B. MICMAC simulation identified the following spread of the variables in the displacement map, see figure 5. Consequently, the variables found in upper right quadrant of the displacement map are the most important ones to monitor and develop in order to move scenario 1 forward.

Figure 5. Displacement map for scenario 1 — Smart production.

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Figure 6 illustrates the direct and indirect influence the different variables pose on each other, indicating the variables that, apart from the relay variables, experience the most direct and indirect pressure in the system.

Figure 6. Direct and indirect influence between variables in the system, scenario 1.

For scenario 1 the relay variables are: Use of technological equipment in production (V7), Efficient food production (V8), Smart land use (V9), Increased ceramics production (V10), Access to water (V12) and Access to energy (V13). In figure 6 of direct influence, Climate change (V11) has high direct influence on relay variables V7 and V12. In figure 6 of indirect influence V13 pose strong indirect influence on V7 as well as relatively strong influence to several variables including Education at higher level (V3) and Use of technological aid in education (V2) in excess to the relay variables. Thus, figure 6 indicates that V11 and V13 will be highly important to monitor going forward in scenario 1.

4.1.2 Scenario 2 - Efficient EducationThis scenario puts emphasis on the importance of a well-developed educational system. The experts were asked to discuss the impact of an improved educational institution in Micaya. Independently, all experts concluded that a strong educational institution is crucial to counter the migration from Micaya. It is important to provide the younger population with solid educational platform. To build the scenario questions like, “How will an improved educational system improve the overall situation in Micaya?”, “To what extent can a rural educational system compete with urban and more developed institutions?” and “How aware are the rural population of the opportunities that a strong educational system brings to the community?” were explored during the interviews. It is important to stress that the educational variables have a strong impact on the overall development in Micaya. During the interviews the experts expressed their opinion that in order to develop a resilient community it is important to have a strong educational system. The relationship between the variables are described by SAM focusing on education in Appendix B. MICMAC simulation identified the following spread of the variables in the displacement map, see figure 7. Consequently, the variables found in upper right quadrant of the displacement map are the most important ones to monitor and develop in order to move scenario 2 forward.

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Figure 7. Displacement map for scenario 2 — Efficient educational.



For scenario 2 the relay variables are: Human resources in the school (V1), Use of technological aid in education (V2), Use of technological equipment in production (V7) and Access to energy (V13). In figure 8 the direct influence include in addition to the relay variables: Education at higher level (V3), Use of technological equipment in healthcare (V5), Efficient food production (V8), Increased ceramics production (V10), Climate change (V11), Access to water (V12) and Access to energy (V13). Whilst the indirect influence also cover Smart land use (V9).

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4.1.3 Scenario 3 - Healthcare This scenario puts emphasis on the importance of a well-developed healthcare system. Thus, the experts were asked to elaborate on what possible impacts a improved healthcare center would have on the community. Realistically, Micaya could never have all the capabilities of a larger hospital or even a mid-size health center. Therefore, questions like, “What capabilities can be feasible to implement for a health center in a community the size of Micaya?” and “ Instead of local proximity, how far is it acceptable for an individual to travel in order to receive basic medical services?” were explored. The health variables have limited impact on the rest of the systems in place in Micaya, but the experts still agreed that it is crucial to have local access to e.g. medicines and vaccines. Consequently, it can be concluded that remote villages like Micaya might not need all the capabilities of urban healthcare, but close proximity to medicine and vaccines are crucial to livelihood security. The relationship between the variables are described by SAM focusing on healthcare in Appendix B. MICMAC simulation identified the following spread of the variables in the displacement map, see figure 9. Consequently, the variables found in upper right quadrant of the displacement map are the most important ones to monitor and develop in order to move scenario 3 forward.

Figure 9. Displacement map for scenario 3 — Healthcare.


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For scenario 3 the relay variables are: Use of technological equipment in production (V7), Efficient food production (V8), Access to water (V12) and Access to energy (V13). In figure 10 the direct influence include in addition to the relay variables: Use of technological aid in education (V2), Education at higher level (V3), Use of technological equipment in healthcare (V5), Spreading of diseases (V6), Increased ceramics production (V10) and Climate change (V11), Whilst the indirect influence also cover Number of nurses and doctors at the health center (V4).

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4.2 Key Objectives In the MAO, see Appendix D, four objectives can be identified as objectives that will serve as the most intense battlefields for the actors’ involved. Base definition and specification on consensus (O1), Create infrastructure to supply energy for local application (O4), Fair pricing (O6) and Determine who will be responsible for the maintenance and uptime of the new system (O7) all creates strong difference between several actors in Micaya. In Appendix D it is also apparent that almost every actor agree on objectives: Develop national grid connection for transition and production site Ensure access to water & energy (O8).

However, the objective that causes a lot of differences are not to be neglected or taken lightly, these objectives will be important to find the right compromise going forward. Interestingly, Fair pricing (O6) occurs as an objective causing a lot of differences as well. Likewise Base definition and specification on consensus (O1) have equal amount of actors in favor and against the objective. These objectives must therefore be monitored carefully in order to manage the interactions between the actors.

Key objectives to focus on in Micaya are thus, to ensure the access to water and energy. However, the first objective needs to be considered carefully as well. If the actors can’t agree on a definition and specification it will create problems going forward. An objective that is in close relationship with all other objectives is the energy price in rural areas. When collecting information on the energy consumption in Micaya it was also found that the rural resident pay a minimum fee of 25 bolivianos a month for the energy they consume. In La Paz the cost per kWh is approximately 0,56Bs, household 1 studied in Micaya pay a price 25 times higher than in the city. Key objective are in summary, Base definition and specification on consensus (O1), Fair pricing (O6), Ensure access to water & energy (O8).

4.3 Key Actors Key actors in Micaya are difficult to pick out without highlighting the power structures, not only between local authorities and government but also investigating the internal power structure in the community.

4.3.1 Power Structures in MicayaOutside of the political and juridical systems formed by the Bolivian government, indigenous communities have shaped their own power structure. One that is very influential in the common decision-making in the community. This is a fact necessary to understand in order to understand the relationship between the actors in Micaya. The different instances strive to participate in local decision-making and have created their own legislative practices, in order to work for the possibility of self-determination. The traditional authorities and the neighborhood association are thus very influential in Micaya.

4.4 Key Actors With the power structure separated between local and governmental authorities, the traditional authorities are considered to be one of the most influential when it comes to production. According to the interviews with the expert group the traditional authorities still have a lot of influence on decisions such as when to harvest and when and where to place the crops. All of which are decisions that play a big part in the success of the agricultural production. Meaning they directly affect the possibility to produce excess goods that can be sold and generate a greater economic value to the producers and consequently the community.

In Appendix D, the MAO indicates the relationship between the actors and between which actors there will be most need to compromise. Local actors tend to agree on a lot of the issues

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facing Micaya, in the same way external actors also seem to agree on more issues among themselves than with the local actors. The most differences in opinion on the objectives are to be found among the external actors, whereas the local actors seem to not have that many differences. Thus, the most important aspect when considering actors affecting the system in Micaya will be the interactions between internal and external actors. There is a risk that the actors in Micaya will feel that external actors don’t see to their opinions. This needs to be closely monitored in order to not create an unnecessary conflict.

4.5 Current State Energy Consumption in Micaya The current state in Micaya is based on information gathered from electricity consumption bills and visual inspection of the meters in place at the respective building; as well as during the discussions held with institutions and population in Micaya in accordance with the questionnaire, see Appendix A. The current state describes the energy consumption (assumed to be electricity for lighting when considering the households) as well as the services offered by the institutions in Micaya.

4.5.1 Production In Micaya agricultural and livestock production is small-scale, the economic yield with respect to these two types of production only allows self-sufficiency but have in some rare cases allowed for commercialization. In the production sector, the use of technology is scarce due to economic difficulties. Traditional infrastructure inherited for generations are still used, to store potatoes, wheat, quinoa, barley etc.

Due to regulations the delivery of accurate data regarding the energy consumption within the production sector in Micaya took too long and is thus not included in this survey.

4.5.2 Health In the Micaya there is an apothecary, a basic health facility that employs one doctor and a nursing assistant, the apothecary can only cure minor illness and wounds. The doctor lives in the center during the weekdays. It has access to, electricity and water. The Health center is one of the most energy consuming institutions in Micaya with a total average annual consumption of 1464 kWh. Figure 11 illustrates the monthly energy consumption over the past year.

Figure 11. Monthly energy consumption in healthcare in Micaya.

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4.5.3 Education The energy consumption in the school is on par with what the average household in Micaya consumes, given its size it is to be considered very low. The school employs two teacher, whom also live there, and educate a total of 25 students (approximately). The average yearly consumption in the school is 195 kWh. The monthly consumption in is illustrated in figure 12.

Figure 12. Monthly energy consumption in education in Micaya.

Unfortunately, the consumption of energy generated by the solar panels at the school cannot be included due to technical limitations of the system. The energy generated by the solar panels are stored in a battery and used to cover the demand during blackouts.

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4.5.4 Households The household consumption in Micaya is represented by six reference households’ chosen randomly from the city map and is thus not biased towards households with good grid connectivity. The consumption can be seen in figure 13 and is a representation of the vastly varying energy consumption in Micaya.

Figure 13. Monthly energy consumption in six different households in Micaya.

Table 3 shows the average yearly consumption per person in Micaya based on the six reference households in the village. The average number of people in a household is 5, the average yearly consumption per household is 158 kWh and the average yearly consumption per person in Micaya is 35 kWh.

Table 3. Summary of yearly energy consumption per person in Micaya.

Number of People Yearly Consumption Yearly Consumption per Person

Household 1 2 37 18,5

Household 2 3 149 49,66666667

Household 3 5 211 42,2

Household 4 8 347 43,375

Household 5 4 161 40,25

Household 6 3 42 14

Average 4,166667 157,8333333 34,66527778

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5 Discussion The pace of rural electrification over the developing world is evidently very slow; the literature review highlights several issues related to poor energy access. Rural electrification in Bolivia is no exception. Micaya places itself on par, or even lower, with similar small rural villages worldwide. According to The World Bank (2014), the average yearly consumption per capita in Bolivia is approximately 2300 kWh, in Micaya that number is significantly lower at 160 kWh. However, even considering this low number, the Bolivian government acknowledges that the Colquencha municipality (Micaya) has access to adequate amounts of energy. The low consumption in Micaya can to some extent be explained by the poor grid connectivity and the quality delivered through the national grid. The national supply is low to medium current, meaning that only basic appliances — mostly light bulbs — can be installed to improve the living standards. This is of course beneficial to improve literacy, as many studies show, when reading hours are increased. In the end this will as well improve the overall education in a villages like Micaya. We will come back to the educational improvement due to energy access, but first focus on the fact that several projects in the Colquencha area involve energy for increased production. Due to the importance of economic development as a part of rural development, a brief review of the impact rural electrification might have on economic development is in order. However, throughout this discussion it is important to keep the policy constraint in mind. Because the Bolivian government define Colquencha as an area with grid access, money for energy projects is hard to come by. This is problematic since the economic impact of energy access to a great extent depends on government policies directed towards either the household or productive uses. In Micaya, energy access for productivity is concentrated on pottery and agricultural business. Which we can see from the MICMAC and MACTOR analysis is an appropriate focus area, for all scenarios considered the production variables play an important part in the development of the community. However, even though the importance of the production variables gives a strong indication on a feasible pathway to a desired future, an overemphasis of rural productivity can divert attention away from the household benefits. As indicated earlier, there are significant social benefits of rural electrification that are mostly allocated in the evening hours when small businesses and social institutions are not operating. Therefore, the same investments can serve two complementary purposes at the same time if installed and used adequately.

From the simulation we can see that the educational system is not that influential in any other scenario than scenario 2 (built to promote the education system), but the use of technology in production has a high influence on the educational system. We can therefore assume that the educational system will rather have a long-term impact on the energy system in Micaya. However, the school in Micaya is the only institution in the village to have its own energy supply in form of a small PV-system used to supply the classrooms with lighting in times of blackouts. To promote discussion, Beltran (2013) highlights that benefits of rural electrification can be approximated in numerical terms if it is assumed that one hour of study by children between 3 and 12 years reduces the probability of them having to repeat a school year by 1.6 percentage points. When the school can ensure electricity security it will bring an educational security to Micaya. Furthermore, the school can offer improved reading and studying conditions to students from all types of households, challenging the fact that solar technology only reaches the better off segments in the society.

As for the healthcare system in Micaya the simulation gives that the future of healthcare in Micaya is highly dependent on what happens in the other sectors. The most influential variables belong in the production sector and external variables. Which is not necessary

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negative, the best healthcare will always be located in bigger cities like La Paz and El Alto. Thus, the health variables have limited impact on the rest of the systems in place in Micaya, but as made evident by the experts it is still crucial to have local access to e.g. medicines and vaccines. Consequently, it can be concluded that remote villages like Micaya do not need all the capabilities of urban healthcare, but close proximity to medicine and vaccines are crucial to livelihood security.

5.1 Key Findings The main research question of this study is: “What could be a feasible pathway to reach a sustainable and resilient future state in Micaya, based on the impact of key variables, identified through structural analysis, within three different sectors: education, health and production?” The answer to this is found in the different scenarios generated in MICMAC in combination with the interviews held with the established experts. The most important variables are the production variables and it is within this sector that a feasible pathway is likely to be found. Variables that affect the system internally are immensely important to the future state in Micaya. The variables; Use of technological equipment in production (V7), Efficient food production (V8), Smart land use (V9), Increased ceramics production (V10), Climate change (V11), Access to water (V12) and Access to energy (V13) are the ones that in after simulation can be defined as the ones that will be most influential to future development. It is little surprise that access to water end energy as well as the impact from climate change play a significant part in the future development in Micaya. These issues are of great concern all over the world, as evident by the ongoing debate in all countries across the globe. However these variables will not be decided upon in Micaya or Colquencha for that matter, these are issues that need to be resolved on a national or even global level. Therefore, it is wise to focus on the variables that can be decided on a local level, such as the production variables. With that said it is still important that the people in Micaya also have solutions to access water and energy locally to not be too dependent on decisions made by a government several hours away, since it is likely that their priorities are not aligned with those of a small rural Altiplano village. To further reduce the dependency on governmental aid it would be advisable for Micaya to consider an energy storage solution. Energy demand will remain fairly stable over a foreseeable future, but it is likely that no funding for grid improvements will be granted. Therefore, to change approach and focus on a possible way to store energy might provide a feasible alternative in the transition period going from national grid to self-supplying sources. A lithium battery system could easily be installed and connected to the national grid to store energy in times of stable energy supply to use in times of blackouts. This kind of solution could provide a short-term solution to the insufficient energy situation in Micaya. As well as serving as a first step towards a resilient future, as the batteries installed now can be incorporated in future mini-grid solutions.

A feasible pathway to a resilient future state in Micaya is to focus and develop the variables within the production sector. In conjunction with this develop a local energy storage system in order to be more resilient in times of long blackouts. This storage solution also has the possibility to serve as a pilot project for a possible future mini-grid.

5.2 Minor Findings One of the most interesting findings is the differences between the definition of electrification made by the government and the level of electrification observed through this study. A mentioned above, the Bolivian government considers the Colquencha municipality to have good grid connectivity. That differs significantly from the observations made in Micaya. The average yearly consumption are at best on par with other similar areas in for example Asia

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(Kobayakawa & Kandpal, 2015) and well below the average yearly consumption in Bolivia. Not ideal for either productivity or improvement of living standards.

Another striking finding is the price difference between rural and urban electricity, the price for electricity in rural areas is almost 25 times the price in La Paz. This is especially problematic since rural areas are characterized by low level of population density with a significant number of poor households. The low population density implies that electricity distribution costs must be spread over relatively few people resulting in higher costs for each unit of electricity consumed. Naturally, as demand grows, the cost per customer for rural electricity declines. Unfortunately, this progression is difficult to predict, making returns to investment in grid extension to poor rural people uncertain. The cost of rural electrification can be minimized if supply systems are designed and modified appropriately. Most importantly, the choice of technology must be based on both financial and potential socioeconomic benefits to a community. As Mayer & Hanko (2017) points out in the interviews, a hybrid mini-grid is probably the best small-scale solutions going forward in communities like Micaya.

5.3 Scenario Building - Micaya in 2025 For the scenario building in year 2025 the scenarios presented through simulation in MICMAC was combined with the optimal scenario as defined through interviews with the established experts. Two scenarios are explored in this section, firstly the optimal scenario where the transition to a reliable and clean energy supply is fully implemented. Secondly, in contrast to the optimal scenario the most realistic scenario is developed together with the established expert group, considering the moves of the most influential actors in Micaya.

Each scenario is based on the identified social variables and social processes known to take place in Micaya. Several factors, determined in discussion with the established expert group, were used to create differences between the scenarios, see Appendix B. These differences illustrate a range of possible outcomes from system variables and the relationship between them that are considered predominant, yet unpredictable.

A completely new facility for pottery production has opened up in Micaya, made possible by foreign investment. This facility has been set up to rely on the national grid for its energy supply and is therefore not considered in these scenarios.

5.3.1 Optimal Scenario Climate change has lead to significant disturbances in the rain cycles in the Altiplano region. In conjunction with a dramatic decrease of the Andes glaciers during the past 50 years, communities in the Altiplano region now have water reserves well below bare minimum. This has forced the hand of the communities in the Altiplano region to adapt their way of living to cope with the current water situation. Above all they have had to transform the energy supply to be more resilient in order to sustain and improve daily life in the region. It is hard to imagine that just a decade ago, communities in the Altiplano region were dependent on an unreliable and low quality national grid for its energy supply. Micaya, a community in the Altiplano region has developed an integrated supply solution that has lessened the dependence on the national grid and made the community almost self-sufficient. The greatest source of energy is generated through PV systems consisting of cheap and efficient solar panels in combination with lithium batteries for storage. This has enabled the community to decrease the mitigation of people to larger cities. Consequently, the development of this system as brought the community closer together, as they are now collectively responsible for the energy production in the village. A mini-grid has been constructed to connect all

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necessary infrastructure solutions to the same source. The mini-grid project that has been funded through several research project stands as an example of how to successfully manage a transition from a dependent to a self-supplying community. The transformations of the investigated sectors as well as households are discussed below.

Production The main progress has been noticed in farming activities. Technically, the system is simple but both very effective and efficient, and consists of PV panels, a battery bank, a solar pump and a water sanitation system. The farms are connected to the mini-grid and, in addition, every farm has its own mini solar power plant for generation of energy. As a lithium battery bank is also included in the farms, it provides a reliable cover for the energy demand in the production system. The solar plants are integrated in the mini-grid and have both input and output signals from the community grid. By having constant access to both the community grid and the farms internal mini-grid the state of charge of the storage bank can be optimized. In long times of low solar radiation the charge level is distributed equally across the community but is otherwise charge by the PV panels. Thanks to the effectiveness of the PV panels the energy generated always cover the energy used to power the production processes. Consequently, in times of strong solar radiation the battery bank is building up storage, independent from the amount of active production processes. To be able to produce energy both for productive uses and cover future household demand makes the farms very resilient.

The energy system at the farms also includes a water sanitation unit, consisting of a solar pump, a sanitation unit and a storage unit. The system provides the farm with water even though significant disturbances in the rain cycles. Water may not be accessible through rainfall, but the solar pumps have enabled the farms to extract water from the ground. The water is used both as drinking water and for agricultural purposes. The solar pumps connected to systems of sprinklers provide irrigation to the crops all year around. These sprinklers make the production of potato and quinoa stable and less dependent on the rain season. Systems like these exist in both small and large scale, for lesser farms a portable watering system is used, consisting of a limited number of sprinklers connected to a water tank. The system is moved around the field to cover different parts of the crops each day. Whilst the large scale farm have a stationary watering system. To further improve the production, farmers in Micaya use electrical fences to separate cattle from crops and vice versa; the use of electrical fences helps to prevent the animals to stride into the crops and damage the harvest. At some farms, where the crop fields are small, the electrical fences are combined with portable sprinklers.

Health The health center in Micaya is, as the entire village, connected to the community grid that now provides Micaya with reliable energy. The health center’s contribution to this systems is a battery bank and mini solar power plant located in the outskirts of the village as well as its own reserve battery bank; thus the health center has a very resilient and stable energy supply completely liberated from fluctuations in both energy supply but also — and perhaps most important — voltage peaks. This prevents sensitive equipment in the health center from being damaged. Furthermore, the health center has a small water sanitation system in place. A solar thermal water sanitation system with a built in storage tank provide a sustainable source of water to the centers water reserve.

Education Much like the health center the local school in Micaya has it own set of PV panels and a small lithium battery bank to provide energy even in times of supply shortages from the community grid. The stable energy supply and access to generation of energy with the sole purpose to use

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for education activities has made it possible for the school to set up communication devices connected to internet for improved education. The integrated energy supply also gives the school unlimited access to lightning. Much thanks to this fact the school has initiated a program that lets the students use the school's facilities after hours to finish homework as well as working on projects of their own likening. Consequently, the improved educational facilities have attracted teachers from La Paz to work in Micaya, and the improved light is directly linked to improved school results. This has had a significant impact on the school results and students are now without exception moving on to higher education levels in Colquencha.

Households The households in Micaya are also connected to the community grid, receiving most of its energy from the farms in the area. Households do however also have their own energy production through a small system consisting of PV panels and lithium batteries. The system is large enough to cover the demand of lighting and communication appliances such as TVs, radios, computers and cellphone chargers. Because of the extensive systems in place at most farms, several households have opted to use a small solar system with direct current (DC). The greatest barrier to a technology transfer to a renewable energy supply in Micaya is the initial investment, which tends to grow immensely when a lithium battery is included. The system provides the household with reliable energy during the day but during night, when demand is lower energy can be taken from the farms instead. This solution has created a much more resilient and reliable energy in supply for the people of Micaya and households do not have to worry about blackouts anymore.

Summary Figure 14 illustrates what variables have been in focus for the creation of this scenario. The scale indicates, in percentage, how well various objectives have been met within these variables. Consequently these variables indicate a feasible pathway to reach the optimal scenario. However, since a lot of efforts have to be put into every variable considered, this might be a stretch to achieve in the limited amount of years leading up to 2025. We also have to consider the cost aspect of scenario 1 and realize that the scenario is unfortunately not feasible.

Figure 14. Radar chart illustration of the optimal future scenario in Micaya.

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5.3.2 Most Realistic Future Scenario Climate change has lead to significant disturbances in the rain cycles in the Altiplano region. In conjunction with a dramatic decrease of the Andes glaciers during the past 50 years, communities in the Altiplano region now have water reserves well below bare minimum. This has forced the hand of the rural communities to adapt their way of living to cope with the current water situation. Micaya a community in the Altiplano region has developed an integrated supply solution that has lessened the dependence on the national grid. The greatest source of energy is still the national grid, however energy is also generated by solar systems consisting of cheap and efficient PV panels in combination with lithium batteries for storage. This provides individual households with the energy they need. The main problem however is not really for private households but the lack of electricity in farming activities. During the last years when rain patterns have been significantly affected by climate change, yields have gone down as well. Farmers and overall production would be much more resilient if they were not dependent on the rain season.

The most substantial change in the energy supply is the mini-grid set up to cover the densest parts of the community. Much thanks to the fact that the school already had a solar system in place, Micaya was chosen to host a project evaluating the effects of rural electrification through mini-grids. The test grid covers the city hall, health center, as well as individual households located in the village center. These facilities now share a minor grid within the national grid with inputs both from the national grid as well as from renewables directly connected to the mini-grid. The project has created a much more resilient and reliable energy in supply for the people in the very center of Micaya and these households and institutions do not have to worry about blackouts anymore.

However, due to the effect caused by climate change, the migration increased around Micaya year 2020. Most young people opted to move into the neighboring cities La Paz and El Alto, though some of them stay for family reasons.

Production Even though the farming systems in place in Micaya have not changed much during the last generations, there has been some inclusion of new technologies. These technologies does not include renewable energy generation system but instead systems that directly draw on e.g. solar power to aid production activities. The most appreciated equipment in the production sector is the newly implemented electrical fence powered by small solar cells. With these the farmers in Micaya have the possibility to manage their cattle more effectively. Crops are more protected than before and the farmers can rely on the cattle herd to stay in one specified place, making better use of the land by managing it smarter. At some farms, where the crop fields are small, the electrical fences are combined with portable sprinklers to provide a regular source of watering in the absence of rainfall. But it is within the health sector that these electrical fences have had the most significant impact on the living standard in Micaya. Apart from these minor changes no further approach to adapt the production system to the current situation has been made. This is mostly due to the fact that funding for large-scale project are difficult to gain.

Health Earlier one of the major concerns was the inability to ensure high levels of water sanity in Micaya, mostly because cattle used to feed next to the river that supplies the village with water. The dung from the cattle was one of the main causes for the high contamination rate in the drinking water. Now with the electrical fences, the villagers in Micaya can effectively

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reduce the risk that cattle contaminates the river. In the end this has stopped the spreading of diseases that was a commonality just a few years ago.

The health center — in conjunction with the city hall and the households closest to the village center — has received funding for a similar project that the school received around 2005, and has installed a small PV-system, with a small lithium battery attached for the purpose of storing small amounts of energy. This energy is used in times of blackouts, and has made the health center much more resilient to changes in supply patterns. Because of this the health center is now able to store medicines and vaccines that require constant cooling, and thus, is able to treat more serious diseases. The PV system also ensures that the doctor living in the health center has access to light during the night and in times of blackouts. Hence, the main benefit of the system is that the health center is no longer limited to certain operating hours.

Education The education sector has not changed at all over the last 15 years, meaning the battery has lost a significant share of its capacity and can no longer be trusted to cover the energy demand during blackouts. Since the school already had a system in place they were unfortunately not included in the new mini-grid project. The number of students has largely decreased during to the migration of younger people to urban areas. This has left the school exposed to the reality where students are being transferred to the neighboring village, Colquencha.

Households In Micaya there are now two types of households, those connected to the national grid and those who are not. Consequently, the households in Micaya generate energy in mainly two different ways. The households not connected to the national grid due to their isolation have been a part of a project funded by the government, “Electricity for all”. These households have all received a small system consisting of PV panels and lithium batteries. The system is large enough to cover the demand of lighting and communication appliances such as radios, light bulbs and cell phone chargers. For the households connected to the national grid the alternative energy supply looks a bit different. The greatest barrier to a technology transfer to a renewable energy supply in Micaya is the initial investment, which tends to grow immensely if a lithium battery is included. Therefore, many households with grid connection also use a small PV system — also funded by the “Electricity for all” project — with direct current (DC). The system provides the household with cheap and reliable energy during the day but during night, when demand is lower, switches back to the national grid.

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Summary Even though Micaya was picked as the location for another research project investigating rural electrification thorough renewable technology, it has not been enough to combat the migration patterns. However, thanks to the “Electricity for all” project Micaya is now a more attractive place to live and the trend is looking positive over the next few years. Figure 15 illustrates the variables that have been in focus to create this scenario. The scale indicates, in percentage, how well various objectives have been met within these variables. Consequently these variables indicate a feasible pathway to reach the optimal scenario.

Figure 15. Radar chart illustration of the most realistic future scenario in Micaya

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6 Conclusion The conclusion is that energy access, especially the access to secure electricity, is an important condition for the development of rural communities. However, electrification in the absence of other development programs has little or no effect on the current situation. Concentrated efforts are needed to coordinate rural electrification with other relevant programs. Without complementary government funded programs, the full societal impact on electrification probably will not be realized, and the required investments will not be justifiable if they are certain to be unsuccessful. Furthermore, the impact of rural electrification on productivity and social institutions is determined by the conditions and structures of the rural community itself. The ability of rural entrepreneurs and external investors also play a big part in the effectiveness of rural electrification. Although, electricity is an essential condition that effectively helps in the development of small rural communities.

More specifically in Micaya the main barrier to electrification is the slow technological integration in the community. This becomes even more obvious when studying the current data on energy usage. The population in Micaya uses 15 times less energy than the lowest consumption rate stated by the Bolivian government. To up this number, investment in infrastructure is needed. Further we can conclude that the current data on energy consumption is too uncertain to use in a baseline study. It cannot be decided how much each activity contributes to the current consumption for it to be a discussion worth having.

Finally, well-planned and carefully implemented rural electrification programs provide enormous benefits to rural communities. Once an area has reached a certain level of development, further improvement of societal institutions depends on the availability of a secure and stable energy supply. As radical reconstruction of rural power supplies gathers pace around the developing world, it is essential that this is kept in mind and the appropriate policies and frameworks are developed to ensure rural electrification is as effective as it has the potential to be.

6.1 Future Recommendations To further investigate the impact of defined variables on the future energy demand it Micaya, it is advisable to continue to evaluate the energy consumption over time. Also, to isolate the different variables to estimate their respective impact on the energy consumption more accurately.

I also recommend using the identified key variables to find adequate objectives and development programs in order to plan and monitor the development in Micaya more effectively. These variables will have the potential to impact on both the short and long-term future in Micaya, thus they need to be the variables to build development around. It would be advisable to use a backcasting method to work backwards from the realistic future scenario to find appropriate milestones and targets for the key variables.

It is concluded that the development in rural areas in Bolivia are dependent on governmental support. Therefore the key variables can be used to initiate a study on a new policy framework for rural development programs in order to highlight the issues found to decision-makers and authorities.

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7 Acknowledgement Firstly, I would like to start by thanking Anders Lundblad and the Department of Applied Electrochemistry at KTH The Royal Institute of Technology for giving me the opportunity to be a part of this project. I would also like to thank my evaluator Göran Lindbergh for valuable feedback.

Secondly, I would like to highlight how grateful I am to Fabian Benavente for helping me settling in in La Paz and for providing invaluable support during my field study in Bolivia. Without Fabian’s help and guidance, it would have been close to impossible to complete the study. Furthermore I like to thank Prof. Saúl Cabrera and my colleges at UMSA Universidad Mayor De San Andrés for valuable support my project and stay in Bolivia.

Last, I would like to thank SIDA for granting me the Minor Field Study scholarship that made it possible for me to conduct this project.

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8 References Alley, R.B. et al., 1997. Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago. Geology, 25(6), p.483.

Aravena, F.R., 2008. Energy and Development in South America: Conflict and Cooperation. Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Arcade, J. et al., 1999. Structural analysis with the MICMAC method and actors’ strategy with MACTOR method. AC/UNU Millennium Project-Futures Research methodology. Available at: https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2fc144b0abe917df0776bae426b650ee9/kamil205.

Beltran, A., 2013. El tiempo de la familia es un recurso escaso: ¿cómo afecta su distribución el desempeño escolar? Apuntes Revista de Ciencias Sociales, (72), pp.117–156.

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I

Appendix A – Interviews and Questionnaire Design

Questionnaire - Rural Electrification in the Altiplano Region Under the framework of a feasibility study project (EHDS) being conducted by Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA) in La Paz, Bolivia in collaboration with KTH - Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden. I am currently working on my master’s thesis, evaluating the potential impact of renewable energy in rural communities. For that, this survey is conducted with a number of interviewees to better understand the energy usage in households and production activities. The project particularly investigate the impact and feasibility for integration of renewable energy solutions into the community energy system to cover the demand of the entire village with regards to: education, health care and production. These interviews will also help to design a desired future scenario for communities in the Altiplano region as well as guide the creation of a mechanism to reach a sustainable and resilient community by 2025. Your help and support in filling up this questionnaire would greatly help this purpose. I would like to thank you in advance for your time and the insights you provide in this matter.

Case Study Community The reference community in this study is the village of Micaya in the Altiplano region outside of La Paz, Bolivia. Micaya have approximately 390 inhabitants and has limited grid access. It is connected to the national grid, however, the quality of the voltage is considered to be medium. This implies that the electricity supply is enough to supply the basic needs of the households and to a minor extent even the school and the health center located in the village. It is not, however, enough to cover the needs of the production facilities in the village, even less so to help improve and develop it. Micaya will be used as a representation of the communities in the Altiplano region, when answering the questionnaire, please consider the properties of the community described above.

Instructions 1. Please, use (X) to indicate your answer among the options provided for each question (one or

more). 2. When applicable, rank your preferences (1,2,3...) where required – 1 as the lowest rank and and

6 is the highest rank. 3. Please write N/A if the question is not applicable to you.

II

Questions Question 1 – Rank the following parameters according to how important they are to daily life in Micaya? 1 as the lowest rank and 6 is the highest rank.

Parameter Ranking

Education

Health care

Agriculture

Cattle

Water use (sanitation, watering etc.)

Ceramics

Question 2 – Estimate how many hours the following appliance are used daily in a household in Micaya.

Appliance Ranking

Television/DVD/Radio

Refrigerator

Heating

Lighting

Cellphone charger

Cooking appliances

Question 3 – Rank (1-4), according to which production activity is the most important to Micaya? 1 = not so important, 4 = most important.

Activities Ranking

Agriculture

Cattle

Mining

Ceramics / Handcrafting

III

Question 4 – Do you have access to enough clean water to satisfy your needs? One (1) = no access to clean water rank and six (6) = I have access more clean water than I need.

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( )

Question 5 – Do you have access to enough energy to satisfy your needs? One (1) = no access to energy rank and six (6) = I have access to more energy than I need.

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( )

Question 6 – On a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) the lowest rank and six (6) being the highest rank, how SUPPORTIVE of a transition to a renewable / reliable / self-sufficient integrated energy supply are you?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) Question 7 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being not important at all and six (6) being the most important aspect, how IMPORTANT/ESSENTIAL is renewable / reliable / self-sufficient energy in Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) Question 8 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being not important at all and six (6) being the most important aspect, how IMPORTANT/ESSENTIAL improvement of education in Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) Question 9 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being not important at all and six (6) being the most important aspect, how IMPORTANT/ESSENTIAL improvement of health care in Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( )

IV

Question 10 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being not important at all and six (6) being the most important aspect, how IMPORTANT/ESSENTIAL improvement of local production in Micaya? a) Agriculture

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) b) Cattle

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) a) Mining

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) a) Ceramics / Handcrafting

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( )

V

Interview Template - Established Experts Under the framework of a feasibility study project (EHDS) being conducted by Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA) in La Paz, Bolivia in collaboration with KTH - Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden. I am currently working on my master’s thesis, evaluating the potential impact of renewable energy in rural communities. For that, this survey is conducted with a number of interviewees to better understand the energy usage in households and production activities. The project particularly investigate the impact and feasibility for integration of renewable energy solutions into the community energy system to cover the demand of the entire village with regards to: education, health care and production. These interviews will also help to design a desired future scenario for communities in the Altiplano region as well as guide the creation of a mechanism to reach a sustainable and resilient community by 2025. Your help and support in filling up this questionnaire would greatly help this purpose. I would like to thank you in advance for your time and cooperation in this matter.

Case Study Community The reference community in this study is the village of Micaya in the Altiplano region outside of La Paz, Bolivia. Micaya have approximately 390 inhabitants and has limited grid access. It is connected to the national grid, however, the quality of the voltage is considered to be medium. This implies that the electricity supply is enough to supply the basic needs of the households and to a minor extent even the school and the health center located in the village. It is not, however, enough to cover the needs of the production facilities in the village, even less so to help improve and develop it. Micaya will be used as a representation of the communities in the Altiplano region, when answering the questionnaire, please consider the properties of the community described above.

Instructions 1. Please, use (X) to indicate your answer among the options provided for each question (one

or more). 2. When applicable, rank your preferences (1,2,3...) where required – 1 as the lowest rank and

and 6 is the highest rank. 3. Please write N/A if the question is not applicable to you.

VI

Questions Question 1 – Rank the following parameters according to the impact they will have on the community in a transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy supply in Micaya? 1 as the highest rank and so forth.

Parameter Ranking

Education

Health care

Production

Land use

Water use (sanitation, watering etc.)

Other, specify:

Question 2 – What of the following appliances do you think will increase the in number/usage with access to clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy supply and thus will have the biggest impact on the energy consumption in Micaya? clean / reliable / self-sufficient

Appliance Ranking

Television/DVD/Radio

Refrigerator

Heating

Lighting

Cellphone charger

Cooking appliances

Question 3 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being seriously deficient and six (6) being exceeding your expectations, how SUPPORTIVE of a transition to a resilient and sustainable future (or clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy supply) is the community Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( )

Question 4 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being not important at all and six (6) being the most important aspect, how IMPORTANT/ESSENTIAL is renewable energy to the future livelihood of the community in Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( )

VII

Question 5 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being seriously disagreeing and six (6) being strongly agreeing, is there a clear CONNECTION between the improvement of education and the use of renewable energy in the community of Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( )

Question 6 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being seriously disagreeing and six (6) being strongly agreeing, is there a clear CONNECTION between the improvement of health care and the use of renewable energy in the community of Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) Question 7 – In your opinion, on a scale from 1 – 6, with one (1) being seriously disagreeing and six (6) being strongly agreeing, is there a clear CONNECTION between the improvement of local production and the use of renewable energy in the community of Micaya?

1 ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 ( ) 5 ( ) 6 ( ) Question 8 – Power grids, how can rural areas/Micaya can become a self sufficient energy producer, without having to build an expensive infrastructure around it. (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 9 – How would it affect the community if Micaya were a self sufficient energy producer? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

VIII

Question 10 – How can the energy system in Micaya be more resilient and sustainable? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 11 – In your opinion, what areas are the STRONGEST in Micaya with regards to transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy source / sustainable and resilient community? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 12 – In your opinion, what areas are the WEAKEST in Micaya with regards to transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy source / sustainable and resilient community? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 13 – In your opinion, what is the biggest OPPORTUNITY for Micaya with regards to a transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy source / sustainable and resilient community? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

IX

Question 14 – In your opinion, what is the biggest CHALLENGE in Micaya with regards to a transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy source / sustainable and resilient community? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 15 – In your opinion, what areas of sustainability efforts would you like to see Micaya FOCUS with regards to a transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy supply? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 16 – Who are the main actors involved in the transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy source / sustainable and resilient community? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 17 – Is there a conflict of interest between various stakeholders? Is the transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy source / sustainable and resilient community? a democratic process and how are rural communities represented in general? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

X

Question 18 – According to your experiences and knowledge, how would an optimal energy situation in a Altiplano community (Micaya) look in 2030? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

Question 19 – Is there anything you would like to add regarding rural electrification or on how to execute a transition to a clean / reliable / self-sufficient energy source / sustainable and resilient community in the Altiplano region (Micaya)? (Personal response to be written by respondent)

XI

Appendix B – Structural Analysis Matrix

App

endi

x A

Stru

ctur

al A

naly

sis

Mat

rix (S

AM)

Scen

ario1

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bles

12

34

56

78

910

1112

131

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01

10

10

01

11

18

20

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03

03

22

30

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153

23

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10

32

11

00

014

40

01

-2

10

00

01

23

105

00

12

-0

00

00

11

27

60

01

22

-0

00

01

20

87

03

20

11

-3

33

23

324

81

22

10

13

-3

11

22

199

21

22

01

23

-1

01

217

102

21

11

13

00

-2

23

1811

01

30

00

33

30

-3

218

121

22

03

01

12

11

-3

1713

12

21

30

33

33

13

-25

917

1911

175

2217

1714

1120

211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Smar

t lan

d us

eIn

crea

sed

cera

mic

s pro

duct

ion.

Clim

ate

chan

ge.

Acc

ess t

o w

ater

.A

cces

s to

ener

gy

Education

Health

Prod

uctio

n

Additio

nal

Varia

bles

Hum

an re

sour

ces i

n th

e sc

hool

.U

se o

f tec

hnol

ogic

al e

quip

men

t.Ed

ucat

ion

at h

ighe

r lev

el.

Num

ber o

f nur

ses a

nd d

octo

rs a

t the

hea

lth c

ente

r.U

se o

f tec

hnol

ogic

al e

quip

men

t.In

crea

sed

oper

atin

g ho

urs.

Use

of t

echn

olog

ical

equ

ipm

ent.

Effic

ient

food

pro

duct

ion.

XII

Scen

ario2

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bles

12

34

56

78

910

1112

131

03

22

21

22

31

12

223

22

02

03

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22

31

11

203

33

02

21

32

21

11

122

41

00

02

00

00

01

22

85

12

10

00

10

00

11

18

62

01

22

00

00

00

31

117

03

10

10

03

23

12

218

81

00

00

13

03

01

21

129

21

11

00

13

01

01

213

102

21

10

23

00

02

22

1711

31

13

02

13

30

03

323

122

00

20

01

32

12

03

1613

22

02

30

33

33

32

026

2117

1015

157

2121

2013

1422

211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Education

Hum

an re

sour

ces i

n th

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f tec

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quip

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t.Ed

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ion

at h

ighe

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el.

Health

Num

ber o

f nur

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t the

hea

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ente

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t.Sp

read

ing

of d

iseas

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ics p

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nal

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bles

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Acc

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s to

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n

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of t

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equ

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ient

food

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ion.

Smar

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e

XIII

Scen

ario3

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bles

12

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153

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-1

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42

12

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23

165

23

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-1

11

11

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218

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327

81

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21

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226

121

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12

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-3

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33

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-28

1321

2323

2420

2318

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Education

Hum

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Num

ber o

f nur

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t the

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ente

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t in

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thca

re

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ease

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hour

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Incr

ease

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ram

ics p

rodu

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n.

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nal

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bles

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ate

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ge.

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ater

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ent i

n pr

oduc

tion

Effic

ient

food

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duct

ion.

Smar

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e

XIV

Appendix C – Actors Strategy Table

A1

A2

A3

A4

A5

A6

A7

A8

A1

A2

A3

A4

A5

A6

A7

A8

A1

Objectiv

e:Iden

tifyissuesand

raisecon

cern

onlocalissue

sinM

icaya.

Prob

lems:

*Dep

opulationandurbanization

*Ba

cklogofissues

Means:

*Differen

tcollectiveassociations

*Teache

randhe

althcen

ter

person

nelarehired

bythe

mun

icipalityandcanthusadd

ress

issuesdirectlytoColqu

encha

Iden

tifie

sissuesand

rep

orttothe

differen

tassosiasions

Teache

rsand

Healthcenter

person

nelareemployed

bythe

mun

icipalityandcanthusaffect

themun

icipalitydirectlythrou

gh

i.e.Strikes.

Canbe

apartofthe

tradition

al

authorties

Putpressureonthegovernmen

t

throughvoting


t

throughvoting


t

throughvoting

Putpressureonthegovernation

throughvoting

A2

Carriesinform

ationtothe

mun

icipalityandcanthusbebias

intentionally

Protecttheinterestofind

ividuals

Objectiv

e:Carryinform

ationfrom

the

commun

ityinM

icayatothe

mun

icipalityinColqu

encha.

Negotiatesolutionsthatfitlocal

cond

itions.

Prob

lems:

*Prioritizeissues

*Biastow

ardssectors

Means:

*Strikes

*Cu

tsupp

liesfrom

excess

prod

uction

Putspreassureonthemun

icipality

throughstrikesandbycutting

supp

liesfrom

Micayagoingtothe

mun

icipality.

Dem

andfin

ancefo

rne

wprojects

andissues

Protecttheinterestofind

ividuals

Includ

esalotofthe

tradition

al

authorities.

Indirectpressureinthe

governmen

tthroughstrikes


governmen

tthroughstrikes


governmen

tthroughstrikes


governmen

tthroughstrikes

App

endix B

Actors Strategy

Table

Gov

ernm

ent -

Ene

rgy

Gov

erna

tions

Indi

vidu

al S

ocia

l Act

ors

Col

lect

ive

Soci

al A

ctor

sM

unic

ipal

ity (T

he M

ayor

in C

olqu

ench

a)Tr

aditi

onal

Aut

horit

ies

Gov

ernm

ent -

Edu

catio

nG

over

nmen

t - H

ealth

care

XV

A3

Finacialsupportforprojectsand

issuessuchasroadreparation.

Protecttheinterestofindividuals

Hirethepersonnelattheschool

andthehealthcenter

Payfortheenergyconsumption

Finacialsupportforprojectsand

issuessuchasroadreparation.

Putspreasureonthecommunity

throughpreferenceofusedand

maintenance

Objectiv

e:Ensurehighqualitylivingand

supportform

everyindividualin

them

unicipality.Superviseand

financelocalprojects/programs

Prob

lems:

*Lim

itedfinances

*Satisfyseveralactors

Means:

*Cooperationwithother

municipalitiesandgovernment

*Localdevelopmentprograms

Seeksfinancialsupporttofinance

projects

Identifiespotentialsolutionstofit

localconditions

Putsindirectpreasureonthe

governmentthroughthestrikesof

thedifferentassosiationsinthe

community


projects


localconditions




community


projects


localconditions




community


projects


localconditions




community

A4

indirectlyprotectstheinterestof

individuals


differentassosiations

Grantsfinancialsupportfor

projectsandprograms

Appointsemployeesinpowerto

differentpositionswithinthe

municipality

Objectiv

e:Adviseonissueswithtraditional

knowledge-sustainproduction

andsupervisetraditional

legislations

Prob

lems:

*Statecontrol

Means:

*Powerofelders

*Strongcollaborationwith

Neighbourhoodassociation

Negotiateforfinancialmeansin

ordertofinanceprojectsand

programswithinthesector







A5


individuals




projectsandprograms



municipality

Objectiv

e:Ensurehighestpossible

educationalqualityinBolivia

Prob

lems:

*Financialrestrictions

*Corruption

*Competitionfromothersectors

Means:

*Internationalaid

*Developmentprograms

*Technologicalim

provement

*Educationisneededtocompete

onagloballevel







A6


individuals




projectsandprograms



municipality




Objectiv

e:Ensurehighestpossiblehealthcare

qualityinBolivia

Prob

lems:

*Infrastructure

*Corruption


*Competitionfromothersectors

Means:

*Internationalaid

*Developmentprograms

*Technologicalim

provement




XVI

A7

indirectlyprotectsthe

interestof

individu

als

indirectlyprotectsthe

interestof

diffe

rentassosiatio

ns

Grantsfinancialsup

portfo

rprojectsand

program

s

Appo

intsemployeesinpo

werto

diffe

rentposition

swith

inth

emun

icipality

Negotia

tefo

rfinancia

lmeansin

orde

rtofin

anceprojectsa

nd

programsw

ithinth

esector

Negotia

tefo

rfinancia

lmeansin

orde

rtofin

anceprojectsa

nd

programsw

ithinth

esector

Objectiv

e:Providehighqualityen

ergyand

securityinallofBolivia

Prob

lems:

*Co

rrup

tion

*Inftrastructure


*Co

mpe

titionfro

motherse

ctors

Means:

*im

provegridco

nnectio

ns*Re

newables-te

chno

logical

change

*De

velopm

entp

rogram

s

A8

Objectiv

e:Sharetheob

jectivesofthe

governmen

t-mightdifferin

governationswhe

reth

eop

position

isinm

ajority

Prob

lems:

*Co

rrup

tion

*Lackofinfluen

ceMeans:

*Localcon

nectionandexpe

rtise

XVII

Appendix D – Matrix of Actors and Objectives

App

endi

x C

MatrixofA

ctorsa

ndObjectiv

es(M

AO)//C

onvergen

ceM

atrix(C

AA)//D

ivergenceMatrix(D

AA)

MatrixofA

ctorsa

ndObjectiv

es(M

AO)

MAO

O1

O2

O3

O4

O5

O6

O7

O8

A1+1

+10

+10

+1-1

+1

A2+1

+1+1

+10

+1-1

+1

A3-1

+10

-1+1

0+1

+1

A40

+1-1

00

+10

+1

A50

0+1

0+1

-1+1

+1

A60

0+1

+1+1

-1+1

+1

A7-1

00

-1+1

-1-1

+1

A80

+10

0+1

-10

+1

Σ++2

+5+3

+3+5

+3+3

+8

Σ--2

-0-1

-2-0

-4-3

-0

Actors

Objectiv

es(+1)

A1O1

(-1)

A2O2

.(0)

A3O3

A4O4

A5O5

A6O6

A7O7

A8O8

*Estim

atefuturedem

andfore

achsectorinM

icaya

*Estim

ateinwhatsectorthe

ene

rgyismostimpo

rtant

*Createinfra

structuretosu

pplyene

rgyforlocalapp

lication

*De

velopnatio

nalgrid

conn

ectio

nfortransition

and

produ

ctionsite

*Fairpricing-Ru

ralpop

ulationpay50

timesm

orethanurbanpop

ulation

*De

term

inewho

willberepo

nsiblefo

rthe

maintainanceandup

timeofth

ene

wsy

stem

*Ensureaccesstowater

ActorN

infavoro

fobjectiv

eM

ActorN

opp

osed

toobjectiv

eM

ActorN

neu

tralinre

latio

ntoobjectiv

eM

Col

lect

ive

Soci

al A

ctor

sM

unic

ipal

ity (T

he M

ayor

in C

olqu

ench

a)Tr

aditi

onal

Aut

horit

ies

Indi

vidu

al S

ocia

l Act

ors

Gov

ernm

ent -

Edu

catio

nG

over

nmen

t - H

ealth

care

Gov

ernm

ent -

Ene

rgy

Gov

erna

tions

*Ba

sedefinition

and

specificatio

non

consen

sus

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