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New openings for rural growth: a research agendaRichard WakefordJune 2015

+Richard Wakeford

+Structural typology

+Urban and rural dynamics

+Three types of rural regions (OECD) Rural territories within Functional Urban Areas

…part of the catchment area of the urban core; development intimately linked to the city Main challenges: service delivery in the face of consolidation; skills development

to meet urban labour market demands; managing land use policy brought by increasing pressures from the core

Rural outside but close to a Functional Urban Area …generally resilient local economies with good industrial mix, attracting

new residents Main challenges: competition for land and landscape driven by urban style

growth; old and new residents differ over needs and visions

Rural areas remote from the Functional Urban Area …dominated by primary industrial sectors

Main challenges: build on areas of absolute and comparative advantage; improve connectivity to export markets; ensure appropriate skills development, and provision of essential services

+Rural growth – scale of investment?

Poultry production units near Naberezhnye Chelny, Tatarstan

Biorefining in Indiana, USA

+Regional development Freeport in Tatarstan – rural?

new openings for rural growth? development of human and social capital in rural

areas?

+OECD view of rural development “As policymakers consider strategies to encourage

national economic growth, they should draw on the growth potential of rural areas …

“…recognising that due to lower population density and other attributes specific to rural places, they face challenges that are different than those in urban areas

“Technological innovation, increasing labour productivity and international openness have provided new business opportunities to rural dwellers

“Most rural communities work regularly with both small and large neighbouring urban centres … due to economic interactions”

+Creating Breakthrough Innovations

Frans Johansson – author of the Medici Effect – at the University of Nebraska Rural Futures Conference (2012)

“Live and work at the intersection – where ideas from different fields and cultures meet and collide

“Interdisciplinary collaboration is important in ensuring success in rural areas”

Is “meeting and colliding” more difficult than in urban areas? (because the population is sparse and higher education

attracts the brightest potential to the cities? … and will the internet bridge the separation between rural and urban in the future?)

+And where does this innovation score?

Heriot-Watt weaves together Harris Tweed history and future

+Rural development principles: look for your assets!• OECD Rural Working Party history

over 15 years• Concern about rural quality of life,

as growth concentrated in urban areas …

• … made worse by agriculture shedding labour and mechanising

• Invest in local assets – place and people

• Land – a key asset in the provision of ecosystems services … provided to city consumers (cf Nature’s Metropolis) contributing to urban growth

+Rural growth potential from ecosystems services (often consumed in urban areas) Provisioning services i.e. products obtained

from ecosystems Food e.g. crops, fruit, fish Fibre and fuel e.g. timber, wool Biochemicals, natural medicines and pharmaceuticals Genetic resources: genes and genetic information used for

animal/plant breeding and biotechnology Ornamental resources e.g. shells, flowers

+Rural growth potential in ecosystem regulating processes

Air-quality maintenance: ecosystems contribute chemicals to and extract chemicals from the atmosphere

Climate regulation e.g. land cover can affect local temperature and precipitation; globally ecosystems affect greenhouse gas sequestration and emissions

Water regulation: ecosystems affect e.g. the timing and magnitude of runoff, flooding etc.

Erosion control: vegetative cover plays an important role in soil retention/prevention of land/asset erosion

Water purification/detoxification: ecosystems can be a source of water impurities but can also help to filter out/decompose organic waste

Natural hazard protection e.g. storms, floods, landslides Bioremediation of waste i.e. removal of pollutants through

storage, dilution, transformation and burial

+Rural growth potential in cultural services (enjoyed by urban dwellers too)

Many societies place high value on the maintenance of important landscapes or species

Aesthetic values: many people find beauty in various aspects of ecosystems

Recreation and ecotourism bring visitors and opportunities for business growth

Rural areas are the inspiration for art, folklore, architecture etc Many religions attach spiritual and religious values to

ecosystems and landscapes Social relations: ecosystems affect the types of social relations

that are established e.g. fishing societies

+Urban rural – the dissolving boundary Rural areas provide lots of potentially useful and services that benefit

urban areas, but often non-market goods and difficult to reward rural producers

And where are rural areas anyway? Lots of research BUT, searching for the definitive urban rural boundary = the holy grail

Some OECD progress; but migration an issue in GDP per head analysis the urban folk who travel out to rural areas for work; and the mobile, educated rural young people who move to cities

Michael Woods: “We need to be thinking about rural areas in the twenty first century not just in relation to the metropolitan society of regional cities, … but also in terms with how they fit within an increasingly globalised economy and society – and how they retain a “rural” identity in this expanded context”

+Globalisation and Europe’s Rural Regions (Woods et al in DERREG)

What’s happening globally? integration of economic systems increased mobility of goods and capital across national borders concentration of economic influence in transnational corporations with a

footloose approach to capital accumulation increased mobility of people intensification of communication networks stretching of social relations circulation and hybridization of culture and knowledge systems.

Uneven geographies of globalization illustrated by different degrees of global engagement local embeddedness of rural businesses international mobility and migration of rural populations value placed on environmental capital and sustainable rural development governance, capacity building and knowledge systems in rural regions

+Lots of research alreadyEU Rural research themes FP7 FP6 preFP6 otherstudies

Drivers and trendsFARMPATH, DERREGTRANSMANGO

FARO,AG2020 DORA SCENAR2020II, SCAR

Foresight

Rural differentiation/typologies PASHMINA,RUFUS SCARLED OECD typology,Territorial Indicators

Rural theory ETUDE RAPIDO

ASPIRE EDORA (ESPON)

Sustainable development/ecosystems

SOILSERVICECLAIMAnaEEE, ENVIEVALQuESSA

COCONUTMEACAPSEAMLESSSENSOR

renewableenergy(OECD)

New land management VOLANTE EU-LUPA (ESPON)

Rural employment/enterprise RURAL JOBS CARERA TERA

RUREMPLO

SERA, SEGIRA

Value chains GLAMUR

Social dimension SOFAR RESTRIM DEMIFER (ESPON)

multifunctionality/public goods PRIMA, ARANGEMULTAGRITOP-MARDMEA-SCOPE

EUROLAN PUBLIC GOODS

Knowledge systems/innovation SOLINSAVALERIEAgriSPIN(H2020)

urban-rural interaction PUREFOODSUPURBFOOD PLUREL RURBAN(OECD)

governance CORASON PRIDE RuralPolicyReviews(OECD)

policyimpact RuDI, SPARDCAP-IRE

TERESA, CEEC-AGRIPOLICY

IMPACT TIPTAP(ESPON)

+But, how much has it helped shape investments, policy or delivery? Some research is driven by academics – delivering excellent

science through published papers and academic conferences But, “Rural growth opportunities” ought to warrant a wider

approach to dissemination

So… what does this mean for EU research going forward? First, pull together and communicate what we know from

recent work And then address the challenges and opportunities over the

next two decades … always bearing in mind the potential users/beneficiaries

+So, how can research help policymakers and investors in the 2020s and 2030s? Big challenges/opportunities

Changing climate (water management, changes in crops) Action to mitigate global emissions Action to adapt to global emissions Economic growth in BRICS and other emerging economies Globalisation of trade ICT and internal communication >> innovation potential Migration (into EU) Internal migration (between regions, urban/periurban/rural) Ageing population (especially in rural areas) Identify alternative realistic goals of European rural policy

(outcome: success = ???) and potential roadmaps to reach them

+AND - Apply sustainable development thinking to rural growth?

Draft schema prepared by University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership

+Research into policy, into practice “Good research never finds the definitive answers … … but identifies convincingly more areas needing research” So, how many legislators or officials are lucky enough to have timely research

findings to help design new instruments? For example, are the EU’s latest CAP greening measures founded in good research

and analysis? What effects will first pillar payments under the current CAP have on innovation,

productivity gains and economic diversification?

So… COMMUNICATE FINDINGS IN APPROPRIATE LANGUAGE TO MINISTERS, OTHER

POLITICIANS, EXECUTIVE STAFF, MAYORS, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, AND MOTIVATE RURAL ACTORS!

Tell them how it can help shape their principles and the policies they want to deliver Academic papers are simply not sufficient

+Rural growth opportunities:a phased recipe?First – know the context Pull together all recent research Explore futures scenarios given big

challenges (eg SCENAR 2030 encompassing all rural resources and potential urban consumption)

Use “Big Data” to plot interrelation between rural and other areas – domestically, internationally

Then – establish the development potential Better specification of ecosystems services

potential – and its translation into policy, instruments and practice

Economic spin-offs from investment in ecosystems services; rewarding those who deliver (eg farmers) as well as spin off business (eg tourism)

…and explore how obstacles to success can be removed• The “drive gap” in rural institutions

(local government and economic development) and equally in many small rural businesses

Look for good practice illustrations• Comparative studies of success

factors in both leading and lagging areas

… and engage government and industry leaders in the conclusions

+A final word from Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General

“The success of large numbers of rural regions highlights the potential that can be tapped when rural communities are able to mobilise their place-based assets” So, how can HORIZON 2020 research involving DG Agri and

colleagues in other DGs with interests in land use and development help take forward social science and local economic theory help identify the place-based assets with potential help politicians at all levels shape spending, taxation and regulation help give rural communities confidence to invest … and thus encourage new openings for rural growth in an increasingly global

world